dokter cinta: status bursa Korsel naek, ekh …

Game changer for emerging markets
Fund investors face new risk after strong rally — this time from index shuffle

By Sam Mamudi, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:39 p.m. EDT April 3, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Emerging markets are on fire, posting double-digit gains in March and attracting huge amounts of new investment to these volatile regions as they lead the global rally in stocks this spring.
But investors in emerging-markets mutual funds and exchange-traded funds may soon face a shakeup just as they’re recovering from one of the roughest periods ever: major changes to the benchmark index that is gospel for many fund managers and ETFs.

MSCI Barra (MXB) is considering as many as five country changes to its Emerging Markets Index, the standard measure for many funds. Though some fund managers downplay the significance, the changes could make emerging markets funds more volatile and worsen their performance. They could also force managers to sell holdings or at least alter investment strategies.
“Unlike other regional funds, such as a European fund, such changes are an ongoing issue for emerging markets funds,” said William Rocco, fund analyst at investment researcher Morningstar Inc.
Possible upgrade
The prospective changes in June would come just as emerging markets funds are regaining their swagger. Emerging markets stock funds attracted $2.3 billion of new money in the week ending March 25 –– their best week since mid-December. Another $1.2 billion was added in the week ended April 1, according to researcher EPFR Global.
Buyers clearly were drawn to the group’s powerful gains: The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) was up 15.3% in March; sibling iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) , which covers Brazil, Russia, India and China, gained 14.2% in the same period. 
MSCI announced in June that South Korea and Israel may be upgraded to developed markets status, which would include them in the key MSCI EAFE Index, which covers Europe, Australasia and the Far East, and a representative ETF — MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) .
MSCI also said that Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates may join the Emerging Markets Index.
Promoting South Korea would remove a country that is about 12% of the MSCI emerging markets benchmark. Israel, meanwhile, represents about 4% of the Index. Any upgrade would be the first since Greece in 2001 and Portugal in 1997.
“Korea would definitely be a big change,” said Remy Briand, global head of index research at MSCI.
But Korea’s exit would likely hurt performance of the Emerging Markets Index, at least in the short term. The iShares MSCI South Korea Index ETF (EWY) was up 26.1% in March, giving the broad benchmark a boost.
The move could also make the Emerging Markets Index more volatile.
“Upgrading Korea would make the emerging markets a more risky investment because it’s a stable market,” said Wyatt Crumpler, co-manager of American Beacon Emerging Markets Fund (AAMRX) .
Impact to index funds
One class of funds that will be directly hit if MSCI does make changes will be index-tracking emerging markets funds, which have more than $30 billion in assets.
A typical view of emerging markets investing is that investors benefit from active management because superior stocks can be hard to find in little-known, illiquid markets. But, said Gregg Wolper, senior fund analyst at Morningstar, because the category’s performance in good times can be stellar, some investors are comfortable paying lower fees for index funds and accepting the broad returns.
Wolper said four funds track the MSCI Index — two mutual funds and two ETFs.
Vanguard offers Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX) and Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) , which together have $10.6 billion in assets.
There is also the $21 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF and the $218 million Northern Emerging Markets Equity Fund (NOEMX) .
Gus Sauter, chief investment officer at Vanguard, said the firm is “investigating” how it would handle any required sell-off of South Korean assets. Its largest Korean holding is Samsung Electronics Ltd. (SSNG.Y) The funds’ second-largest holding is Israel’s Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) .
The simplest way to dispose of assets, Sauter noted, would be through a sale to sister funds that track the index to which Korea would be added, such as Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund (VDMIX) . One problem might be whether Korea allows in-kind transfers — sales between funds in the same firm. If that’s not permitted, Vanguard would have to sell roughly $1.2 billion worth of Korea holdings into the market.
Once the assets are sold, the fund would immediately buy stocks from countries still in the index, Sauter said.
“You’re just changing seats at the table,” he said. “There’d be heavy trading on the day the change was made, but there shouldn’t be dislocation in the markets.”
“It shouldn’t be too much of a shock to the markets because that money will be spread across several countries,” Wolper added.
Sauter added that liquidity in emerging markets is a concern, but finding stocks to buy shouldn’t be too difficult because the more liquid markets have a larger share of the index.
Active managers’ approach
The change might be trickier for active managers, who could find themselves without a double-digit chunk of their portfolio. “For some managers it might be hard to find [enough] other companies that they like,” Wolper said.
If South Korea was upgraded, at least one actively managed fund would unload its related country holdings.
Todd Henry, portfolio specialist who works on T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund (PRMSX) , said it would likely divest from Korea. As of Feb. 28, about 9% of the fund’s assets were in Korean stocks, according to T. Rowe’s Web site.
“If Korea moves to developed market status, it’s likely that our clients would be getting exposure to it from their developed markets or global managers,” Henry said.
Managers at Templeton Developing Markets Fund (TEDMX) , however, might not sell their Korea exposure at all, said Stacey Johnston, spokeswoman at Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) .
“Our stock selection and portfolio allocation decisions are not driven by changes made in the indexes,” Johnston said.
She pointed out that the fund’s prospectus allows for 20% of its assets in developed market countries, which Morningstar’s Rocco said is quite common for emerging markets funds, though the amount given to developed markets varies.
Rocco said it’s unlikely there’ll be dramatic selling or buying even if MSCI makes the proposed changes. “For those who own an actively managed emerging market fund, I don’t think it’ll be a big deal,” he said.
T. Rowe’s Henry said country upgrades might in fact benefit investors because they rid the index of the more efficient markets. An index of less-efficient markets could help active managers, he added, because they’d have the chance to differentiate themselves from rivals.
Odds for change
Some of the potential changes are due to a structural review at MSCI, Briand said. The firm launched its Frontier Markets Index in November 2007, giving it a new category option. As a result, he said, “We reviewed and changed the criteria and definitions” of country classifications.
Shifts made since June include: downgrading Jordan to frontier markets status because of the small size of the market and lack of liquidity; removing Pakistan from the Emerging Markets Index (it will be added to the Frontier Markets Index in May), and downgrading Argentina to frontier market status because of capital-flow restrictions (it’s still in the Emerging Markets Index).
“This may seem like a lot, but some of the countries are very small,” Briand said. Argentina, for instance, is just 0.1% of the Emerging Markets Index. By contrast, he said, in 2006 when Russian oil company Gazprom (OGZPY) floated more stock, its share of the index grew by roughly 4%.
How likely are the proposed moves? Consultations about the changes are due to be completed in June, Briand said, though he was non-committal about their outcome.
In a preliminary assessment in December, he said, there were “a number of open questions” regarding Korea, particularly its currency and lack of clarity about authorities’ plans for the country’s markets. As for Israel, the main concern is the relatively short settlement cycle for stocks on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
Briand added that while the UAE’s case remains open, an upgrade for Qatar and Kuwait is unlikely this year because their markets lack accessibility.
“There would need to be a lot of progress in a short period of time,” he said.


tetaplah mencintaiku: Daripada turun, mending NAEK dong

Unit reksa dana naik tipis
Senin, 23 March 2009

JAKARTA: Unit penyertaan reksa dana sepanjang Februari mencapai 62,28 miliar atau
naik 2% dibandingkan dengan pencapaian Januari yaitu 61,06 miliar.

Hal itu menunjukkan pemodal masih tetap menanamkan dananya pada produk investasi
itu meski underlying asset-nya seperti saham dan obligasi terus turun.

Berdasarkan data Bapepam-LK, total dana kelolaan reksa dana pada Februari
sedikit turun menjadi Rp73,43 triliun dibandingkan dengan posisi Januari yaitu
Rp74,35 triliun.

Wakil Ketua Asosiasi Pengelola Reksa Dana Indonesia (APRDI) Legowo
Kusumonegoro mengatakan posisi unit penyertaan menempati posisi tertinggi pada
September 2008 yaitu di level 63,68 miliar karena aksi pembelian secara berkala
oleh nasabah.

Dia menjelaskan penurunan NAB lebih mewakili kondisi valuasi efek yang
menurun karena kondisi pasar modal yang belum stabil.

Nasabah mulai teredukasi untuk tidak melihat volatilitas return tetapi lebih
ke investasi jangka panjang secara bertahap, ujarnya kemarin.

Legowo menjelaskan beberapa jenis produk yang menjadi incaran para pemodal
yaitu reksa dana terproteksi karena kepastian return dan perlindungan modal
awal investasi. Namun, reksa dana jenis pendapatan tetap yang lebih konservatif
daripada reksa dana campuran dan saham juga tetap dicari nasabah.

Manajer investasi (MI) PT Valbury Asia Securities Manuel Pakpahan menilai
dana kelolaan reksa dana campuran berpotensi tumbuh lebih besar dibandingkan
dengan reksa dana lain.

Jenis reksa dana itu menjadi strategi yang baik bagi MI karena menjanjikan
fleksibilitas di tengah kondisi ekonomi yang belum dapat ditebak, tuturnya.

menunggu keajaiban: TIDAK BISA DISULAP sih

Dodge & Cox’s Assets Cut in Half by ‘Breathtakingly Bad’ Bets

By Charles Stein and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam

March 9 (Bloomberg) — Dodge & Cox lost almost half of its assets in the past year, the most among the 20 largest U.S. mutual-fund companies, after sticking with financial stocks such as American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.

Dodge & Cox’s stock and bond fund assets fell 47 percent to $79.4 billion in the 12 months ended Jan. 31, according to data compiled by Financial Research Corp. in Boston. That compared with an industry average decline of 33 percent, according to the Boston-based firm.

… reksa dana berbasis saham finansial amrik JELAS PALING PARAH HASILNYA, dan bego

Biggest asset declines
12 months ended Jan. 31

Firm Jan. 2009 Assets 12-Month Decline
Dodge & Cox          $79.4 Billion      47%
Legg Mason           $68.9 Billion      45%
Van Kampen Inv. $43.2 Billion      43%
OppenheimerFunds $92.4 Billion  41%
Janus Capital $54.6 Billion              41%
Columbia Management $77.2 Billion 39%
Fidelity Inv.* $525.4 Billion            39%

Source: Financial Research Corp.
Includes stock and bond mutual-fund assets only, and excludes
money-market funds. Ranking drawn from 20 largest fund companies.

terlanjur cintA: reksa dana pasar uang bak BANK

Treat money market funds like banks

Natasha Brereton | March 02, 2009

Article from: Dow Jones Newswires
MONEY market funds could transcend the financial crisis by being supervised like banks and getting access to last-resort lending, a Bank for International Settlements report says.

The Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Picture: Bloomberg

The report, in the BIS quarterly review, added that flows from low-yielding Treasury funds to prime funds could result in a boost to US dollar funding for non-US banks in the near term.

Money market funds enjoyed increased popularity during the credit crunch until Lehman Brothers Holdings’ collapse, as investors sought safe havens, which allowed non-US banks to become highly dependent on them for dollar funding.

But the banking giant’s collapse in September 2008 caused a slump in confidence and a run on these funds, after one major player, Reserve, set a precedent by announcing that shares in two of its funds were worth less than $US1, a move known as “breaking the buck”.

To stem the run, the US Federal Reserve and Treasury took action that included guaranteeing money market funds’ net asset value and helping funds to meet redemption demands.

The Fed also increased its existing dollar-swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank, and set up new swap lines with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. The funding pacts with the BOE, ECB and SNB were later made to be unlimited.

Measures taken by the US authorities stabilised the situation for the money market funds, but the future of the industry remains unclear, the BIS paper found. The BIS is dubbed the central bank of central banks.

It notes there have been calls for those funds that offer transaction services, withdrawal on demand and a stable net asset value to be organised and supervised as banks with access to last-resort funding, and for short-term funds not organised in that way to be required to have a floating net asset value.

“US securities firms’ becoming bank holding companies points in this direction,” the BIS paper said.

“They could seek deposits and follow the lead of Merrill Lynch, which, well before its funding risks became evident or it was acquired by Bank of America, shifted retail ‘cash management accounts’ from a money market fund to its own bank.”

In mid-2008, before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, European banks relied on money market funds for around an eighth of their $US8 trillion ($12.6 trillion) in dollar funding, the BIS said.

European banks’ foreign assets in all currencies amounted to more than $US30 trillion in early 2008, 10 times the size of that for US banks, the BIS added.

terlanjur cinta: iya tuh, SATPAMIN aja semuanya…

Berita Vesta

BI akan Awasi Ketat Bank yang Jual Produk Pasar Modal 
Rabu, 18 February 2009

reaktif lah, uda terjadi kasus2 Bank Century dengan reksadana aneh tapi nyatanya pada sekuritas Antaboga, dan Sarijaya, baru melek banget mata-matanya bank sentral … karena gw banyak terkait dengan 2 bank asing penjual reksa dana: Citibank dan Commonwealth Bank, bole dong, nitip pesan, tolong awasin ketat tuh 2 bank, yang sebenarnya masih tetap oke punya seh … lumayan khan, gw bayar pajak bwat BI jadi satpam (ooopsss… kaya dirut pertamina aja … he3) dana2 gw … termasuk bank kustodiannya juga dong yaow


Jakarta : Bank Indonesia (BI) akan mempertajam 
pengawasan terhadap bank-bank yang menjual produk pasar modal. Bank juga 
diwajibkan lapor jika akan menjual produk baru.

“Secara teknis kita akan bekerjasama dengan Bapepam, kita bisa makin 
mempertajam pengawasan,” kata Gubernur BI Boediono, disela-sela acara 
pembukaan pelatihan pengawasan perbankan di gedung BI, Jalan MH Thamrin, 
Jakarta, Rabu (18/2/2009).

Menurut Boediono, pihak BI sudah menyampaikan ke perbankan dalam banker dinners 
akhir Januari lalu, bahwa BI akan memperbaiki sistem pengawasan. Termasuk 
memperpendek jarak antara hasil pengawasan dan pembinaaan.

“Artinya antara hasil temuan dan tindakan, kita akan buat 
sebaik-baiknya,” kata Boediono.

Sementara deputi gubernur BI Muliaman Hadad mengatakan produk offshore 
memang bisa dekat ke bank atau bisa dekat ke pasar modal. Yang penting 
bagaimana untuk mengecek dengan mudah produk itu legal atau tidak.

Diakui Muliaman untuk pengaturan penjualan produk offshore diperbankan 
mekanismenya belum diatur. Nantinya  semua produk akan didaftar sehingga 
bisa tercantum di dalam data base BI atau tidak.

“Tapi ini baru pikiran-pikiran awal. Yang jelas keinginan untuk 
meningkatkan peran perlindungan kepada konsumen. Itu saya kira ada di pilar 
enam dalam Arsitektur Perbankan Indonesia, yaitu meningkat perlindungan 
konsumen nasabah atau investor,” katanya.

Apakah yang mengawasi BI atau Bapepam, menurut Muliaman itu tergantung dari 
produknya. “Itu tergantung produknya, kalau pure bank ya BI. 
Kalau kita lihat ini produknya bank katakan sebagai agen saja yang menjual 
produk orang lain. Setiap instansi yang terkait nanti kita akan undang untuk 
mendengar,” katanya.

Muliaman juga mengatakan boleh-boleh saja perbankan menjual produk pasar modal 
namun untuk itu BI atau Bapepam akan memberikan guide line yang tegas 
yang diharapkan bisa keluar bulan depan aturannya.

“Paling tidak guide line bagi bank kalau dia katakan berfungsi 
sebagai agen produk, atau guide line bagi bank kalau mungkin dia 
sendiri ingin membeli investasi produk-produk offshore. Saya kira guide 
 seperti itu diperlukan, dan kemudian juga aturan setiap bank ingin 
menjual produk baru harus lapor dulu kepada kita, harus presentasi harus 
jelas,” tuturnya. (tin02dt)

yolanda: perbaikan bukan berarti sudah sembuh…

I am Investor: Reksa Dana Pasar Uang bo
Associated Press
Money fund assets rose to $3.9T in latest week
Associated Press, 01.29.09, 06:28 PM EST

Total money market mutual fund assets rose by $11.30 billion to $3.904 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

Assets of the nation’s retail money market mutual funds fell by $5.70 billion in the latest week to $1.352 trillion.

Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category fell by $1.272 billion to $1.055 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets fell by $4.42 billion to $297.32 billion.

Assets of institutional money market funds rose by $16.99 billion to $2.552 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets rose by $19.16 billion to $2.362 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds fell by $2.17 billion to $198.88 billion.

The seven-day average yield on money market mutual funds fell in the week ended Tuesday to 0.48 percent from 0.55 percent the previous week, said Money Fund Report, a service of iMoneyNet Inc. in Westboro, Mass. The 30-day average yield fell to 0.59 percent from 0.66 percent, according to Money Fund Report.

The seven-day compounded yield fell to 0.48 percent from 0.55 percent the previous week, and the 30-day compounded yield fell to 0.60 percent from 0.67 percent, Money Fund Report said.

The average maturity of the portfolios held by money funds was 48 days, unchanged from the previous week, said Money Fund.

… kalo reksa dana pasar uang di amrik gimana keadaannya? well, info di atas menunjukkan bahwa terjadi perbaikan total aset, karena investor institusi berbalik arah untuk membeli dan memasuki pasar itu kembali … investor ritel masih butuh dana segar, jadi banyak yang jual dan ternyata dibeli oleh pemodal raksasa … apa makna ini? kepercayaan dan keyakinan diri kelihatannya mulai kembali slowly but sure
di indo apa yang terjadi? tampaknya setelah 2 kejadian penting: rush pada PNM PUAS dan Nikko Kas Manajemen sehingga terjadi proses pengalihan secara perjanjian ke reksa dana terproteksi yang diredeem secara teratur atau sekaligus, sekarang ini semua reksa dana sudah mulai menemukan ekuilibrium baru
… kestabilan emosi dan pemahaman investor terhadap proses investasi di reksa dana lah yang menyebabkan situasi tidak memburuk … orientasi gw cukup jangka panjang sih, jadi mantap mengamati fluktuasi, dan sekaligus meraup peluang hari demi hari … semoga ekonomi tidak seburuk apa yang dibayangkan ROUBINI bahwa ekonomi amrik diambang DEPRESI … well, Dr Doom hanya manusia biasa, walau pun sangat punya data dan mampu menganalisis ekonomi secara hebat … kita liat aja, sambil mempersiapkan diri dengan bekal diversifikasi dan long-term view

yolanda: pajak kok RAME banget seh

Pajak obligasi akan dipangkas jadi 15%.
Kamis, 22 January 2009

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Rencana ini tertuang dalam draft Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) mengenai pajak atas imbal hasil
obligasi. Meski demikian, pemotongan pajak itu hanya berlaku bagi investor lokal, sedangkan investor asing masih dikenai pajak 20%. (chris_02_ip)
… wadow, masih ketinggian kale … imbal hasil obligasi khan naek turun ga keruan-keruanan … makanya investasi obligasi dan turunannya adalah tetap berisiko tinggi, kenapa harus segitu tinggi … ntar pada kabur lho … manajer investasi mesti bersuara keras, atau bikin produk terkait dengan imbal hasil obligasi yang jauh lebe mantap dan menarik (semi protektif; atawa yang lebe kreatif misalnya terkait justru dengan penurunan imbal hasil, nilai aktiva bersih juga ikut naek)