masalah ekonomi kita: BUKAN RUPIAH (3)

beri NAFAS BUATAN @daya beli klas BAWAH, skarang JUGA @ PPH turunanimated-rocket-and-space-shuttle-image-0032

analisis gw @ brexit 2016

 

turunKEN PPH, bri NAFAS BUATAN @daya beli klas BAWAH

 

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Kendati relatif stagnan, prospek konsumsi masyarakat atau daya beli diyakini akan melonjak pada kuartal IV/2017.

Febrio N Kacaribu Head of Research for Makro and Finance LPEM Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia mengatakan stagnasi daya beli terjadi karena kelas menengah selama tiga kuartal terakhir telah menahan belanjanya.

“Mereka sekarang cenderung menabung, ada beberapa alasan mungkin masalah politik atau menunggu akhir tahun,” kata Ferbrio di Kampus UI, Kamis (9/11/2017).

Meski demikian, sejumlah indikator pertumbuhan ekonomi selama kuartal III kemarin, misalnya ekspor, tampaknya akan memberikan kembali kepercayaan  kalangan ini untuk meningkatkan konsumsinya.

Peningkatan konsumsi itu diprediksi mengerek pertumbuhan secara signifikan. Proyeksinya, pada kuartal IV daya beli masyarakat bisa naik ke angka 5,1% – 5,2%. Sehingga secara keseluruhan masih di angka 5,1% atau bahkan 5,15%.

“Misal akhir tahun ini mereka bisa jalan-jalan atau membeli barang baru,” jelasnya.

Adapun Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sebelumnya merilis data bahwa daya beli masyarakat terus tergerus hingga kuartal ke III/2017. Pada kuartal tersebut daya beli berada di angka 4,93% atau turun dibandingkan kuartal I/2017 sebesar 4,95% dan kuartal II/2017 4,94%.

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Jakarta ID– Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) mencatat Singapura sebagai negara yang paling banyak berinvestasi di Indonesia sepanjang triwulan ketiga 2017.

Deputi Pengendalian Pelaksanaan Penanaman Modal BKPM Azhar Lubis di Jakarta, Senin (30/10) mengatakan Singapura berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar negara-negara yang paling banyak menanamkan modal di Indonesia sebanyak 2,5 miliar dolar AS (30,1 persen).

“Kalau dilihat dari negara asal investasi, tetap Singapura yang pertama,” katanya.

Posisi kedua ditempati oleh Jepang dengan 1,1 miliar dolar AS (13,3 persen), disusul Tiongkok dengan 800 juta dolar AS (9,6 persen), Amerika Serikat dengan 600 juta dolar AS (7,2 persen) dan Korea Selatan dengan 400 juta dolar AS (4,8 persen).

Azhar mengatakan, urutan tersebut tidak berubah dalam kurun waktu Januari-September 2017.

“Tidak ada perubahan yang mendasar karena yang teratas masih Singapura, Jepang, Tiongkok, AS dan Korea Selatan,” katanya.

BKPM mencatat realisasi investasi sepanjang triwulan III 2017 mencapai Rp176,6 triliun, naik 13,7 persen dibanding capaian pada periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp155,3 triliun.

“Sepanjang triwulan III 2017 realisasi investasi mencapai Rp176,6 triliun dengan rincian Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) sebesar Rp64,9 triliun dan Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) sebesar Rp111,7 triliun,” kata Azhar.

Ada pun secara kumulatif, ia menjelaskan, sepanjang Januari-September 2017, realisasi investasi investasi sebesar Rp513,2 triliun terdiri atas PMDN Rp194,7 triliun (37,9 persen) dan PMA Rp318,5 triliun (62,1 persen).

“Kalau dihitung secara kumulatif, sepanjang Januari-September 2017 ini sudah mencapai 75,6 persen dari target 2017 sebesar Rp 678,8 triliun,” katanya.

Realisasi penanaman modal pada triwulan III Tahun 2017 telah menyerap tenaga kerja Indonesia sebanyak 286.497 orang dengan rincian sebanyak 109.711 orang dari proyek PMDN dan sebanyak 176.786 orang dari proyek PMA

Sumber: ANTARA

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Jakarta detik – Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) memaparkan capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap daerah sepanjang 2016. Jokowi menyebut daerah yang ekonominya tumbuh tinggi hingga minus.

Suasana menjadi riuh karena Jokowi tak hanya bicara soal capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi, tapi juga soal penyerapan APBD, daerah yang parkir dana di bank, hingga soal penggunaan dana desa.

Hal ini disampaikan Jokowi saat memberikan arahan kepada para kepala daerah di Istana Negara, Jl Veteran, Jakarta Pusat, Selasa (24/10/2017).

“Ini pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016 saya ingin mengucapkan selamat,” ujar Jokowi.

Jokowi lantas membacakan data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016. Nomor satu Kabupaten Banggai, Sulawesi Tengah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi 37 persen.

“Ada Bupati Banggai?” tanya Jokowi sambil melihat ke barisan kepala daerah yang duduk di depannya.

Banggai pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi karena punya gas alam. Jokowi mengingatkan agar kepala daerahnya hati-hati mengelola gas alam.

Selanjutnya, Blora dengan pertumbuhan 23,5 persen di urutan kedua. Disusul Bojonegoro 21,90 persen, dan Morowali 13,18 persen.

Morowali tumbuh karena hasil nikel. Urutan selanjutnya ada Mimika dengan angka pertumbuhan 12,7 persen.

“Saya belum cek karena apa. Karena apa? Karena Freeport?” imbuh Jokowi.

Setelah menyampaikan deretan daerah yang ekonominya tumbuh tinggi, Jokowi kemudian membacakan daerah yang ekonominya minus.

“Ini ada yang minus-minus. Perlu saya bacakan enggak yang minus? Kabupaten Paser, Kabupaten Bengkalis. Ini yang tahun kemarin. Tahun ini harus betul-betul hati-hati. Kabupaten Kutai Kartanegara, Kabupaten Berau, Kabupaten Bontang. Sudah, nanti pada lihat,” tutur Jokowi.

Suasana berubah menjadi riuh. Terlihat raut-raut wajah heran, ada yang saling menatap. Namun Jokowi melanjutkan tuturannya.

Serapan APBD

Selain soal pertumbuhan ekonomi, Jokowi juga menyebut beberapa daerah dengan serapan APBD tinggi. Urutan pertama ada Kota Pariaman di angka 87 persen. “Berarti kerjanya ngebut,” kata Jokowi.

Urutan kedua serapan APBD tertinggi Tasikmalaya 76 persen, Garut 65 persen. Kabupaten Barru (Sulsel) 62 persen, dan Kabupaten Ciamis 60,6 persen.

“Ini yang serapannya rendah saya masih ragu. Masa serapannya hanya 10 persen, 13 persen? Dibacakan enggak ini (nama daerah dengan penyerapan anggaran terburuk)?” tanya Jokowi.

Ada yang menjawab, “Dibacakan!”

“Enggak usahlah, nanti kaget. Saya hanya geleng-geleng saja,” ucap Jokowi.

Selanjutnya mantan Gubernur DKI Jakarta ini membacakan peringkat daerah tentang dana parkir terbesar. Kabupaten Tangerang duduk di peringkat pertama, punya dana parkir 38 persen, disusul Jember 36 persen, Kota Tangerang 32 persen, dan Sidoarjo 31 persen.

“Segera gunakan, segera cairkan APBD itu supaya cepat beredar di masyarakat,” tutur Jokowi kepada kepala daerah agar dana parkir tak terlalu besar.

Dana desa

Giliran soal pemanfaatan dana desa yang sudah tiga tahun digelontorkan sebanyak Rp 127 triliun. Pemanfaatan dana desa yang terbaik diraih oleh dua kabupaten.

“Saya anggap pemanfaatan dana desanya terbaik karena bisa dibangun jalan 679 km, jembatan 1.975 meter, ini dikerjakan dalam tiga tahun setelah dana diberikan,” ucap Jokowi.

Yang dimaksud Jokowi sebagai daerah yang paling baik dalam penggunaan dana desa itu adalah Kabupaten Tulungagung.

“Diteruskan, Pak Bupati!” kata Jokowi kepada Bupati Tulungagung yang duduk di bagian belakang.

Di urutan kedua ada Kabupaten Jembrana. Kabupaten di Bali ini bisa membangun 129 km jalan, 8 meter jembatan, dan 4 unit pasar.

“Hal-hal seperti ini yang kita inginkan, agar dana itu betul-betul termanfaatkan dengan baik,” tutur Jokowi. (dnu/hns)

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Merdeka.com – Peringkat daya saing Indonesia 2017 meningkat 5 posisi dari posisi tahun lalu. Peringkat Indonesia saat ini berada di posisi 36.

Dilansir dari weforum.org, Kamis (28/9), korupsi masih menjadi permasalahan terbesar dalam kemudahan berusaha di Indonesia. Diikuti oleh ketidakefisienan birokrasi, akses ke pembiayaan, serta masih rendahnya ketersediaan infrastruktur.

“Sama seperti Korea, Indonesia telah memperbaiki kinerja sejumlah aspek dasar penilaian,” tulis WEF.

Peringkat Indonesia ini didorong utamanya oleh kepemilikan pasar yang besar (berada di posisi 9) dan kestabilan makro ekonomi (berada di posisi 26). Sementara, Indonesia dianggap sebagai inovator tertinggi diantara negara berkembang.

“Indonesia menduduki peringkat 31 pada aspek inovasi dan 32 pada kepuasan berbisnis.”

WEF juga mencatat Indonesia masih memiliki nilai rendah pada aspek kesiapan teknologi. Kondisi ketenagakerjaan Indonesia turut menjadi sorotan salah satunya akibat rendahnya keterlibatan perempuan dalam dunia kerja.

[bim]

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JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Para pengusaha yang tergabung dalam Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia ( Apindo) menilai pemerintah harusnya lebih mementingkan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan mengejar penerimaan pajak.

Ketua Umum Apindo, Hariyadi Sukamdani mengatakan, penerimaan pajak tidak akan tinggi jika pertumbuhan ekonominya juga tidak tinggi.

Untuk itu, Apindo meminta pemerintah tidak mengharuskan wajib pajak untuk melaporkan barang seperti telepon genggam atau handphone ke Surat Pelaporan Harta Tahunan (SPT) pajak.

Menurut, Apindo kebijakan tersebut dianggap berlebihan dan terlalu berat bagi masyarakat. Sebab untuk masyarakat yang pendapatannya tinggi, pelaporan telepon genggam di SPT tidak akan jadi masalah. Tetapi untuk masyarakat yang pendapatannya rendah, kewajiban itu akan memberatkan.

(Baca: Sri Mulyani Sentil Pengkritik Smartphone Masuk SPT untuk Baca Aturan)

“Menurut saya pajak itu tetap mengikuti pertumbuhan ekonomi, kalau pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak tinggi otomatis pajaknya tidak naik. Isu pertumbuhan ekonomi itu lebih penting. Kalau pajak itu mau diapain dan dikejar itu-itu aja orangnya,” ujar Hariyadi saat ditemui di Gedung Permata Kuningan, Jakarta, Rabu (27/6/2017).

Meski demikian, Hariyadi mempersilahkan kepada pemerintah untuk mengenakan pajak kepada barang yang belum dilaporkan ke SPT Pajak.

“Saya rasa itu (pengenaan pajak pada barang) memang tugasnya petugas pajak. Asalkan, jangan handphone dipajaki. Soalnya, agak sulit untuk mengekspan data seperti itu,” tambah dia.

Sebelumnya, Direktur Penyuluhan, Pelayanan dan Humas Direktorat Jenderal (Ditjen) Pajak Hestu Yoga Saksama menjelaskan bahwa SPT wajib pajak orang pribadi tak hanya digunakan untuk melaporkan penghasilan saja, namun juga harta dari penghasilan tersebut.

“Jadi keseluruhan harta termasuk handphone yang dibeli dari penghasilan yang telah dibayar pajaknya wajib dilaporkan dalam (Lampiran) SPT Tahunan,” pungkas dia.

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HONG KONG — China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which promises over $1 trillion in infrastructure and spans more than 60 counties, has been met with growing ambivalence among those who stand to benefit from the massive program.

A business leader from Indonesia on Monday told a forum sponsored by the Hong Kong government that the project would potentially bolster the development of Southeast Asian countries by providing much-needed financial aid. But the huge influx of Chinese money has also discomfited the local community.

“China now is very aggressive with its initiative One-Belt, One-Road to come to all countries, including the ASEAN,” said Chairul Tanjung, chairman of Jakarta-based conglomerate CT Corp. “This is an opportunity, but sometimes, if you’re too aggressive coming without enough socialization — that will also make us [feel scared].”

Although China’s master plan to resurrect the historic Silk Road linking Asia and Europe might help plug the infrastructure gap of Asia — estimated at over $26 trillion through 2030, or roughly $1.7 trillion every year — it is also widely viewed as a geopolitical apparatus aimed at achieving regional hegemony.

Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are among the countries along the trade corridor that have seen protests and oppositions against Chinese-financed projects in recent years.

“What we need is more [communication] about your actual goal in coming to our countries,” said Tanjung, the sixth-richest man in Indonesia with a net worth of $4.9 billion in 2016, according to U.S. magazine Forbes. Known for his close ties with the country’s former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and once a key government economic adviser, he has stayed out of politics since Joko Widodo came to power.

Under Widodo, direct investment from China tripled to a record $2.67 billion last year, making it the third-largest investor in Indonesia, behind Singapore and Japan, up from ninth place in 2016. But the influx of funds has prompted concerns that local workers are losing their jobs to imported Chinese labor, especially in the eastern island of Sulawesi, where Tanjung’s company has a prominent presence.

“We need somebody to try to bridge the communication between mainland [Chinese] companies [and] Indonesia [for] things to happen [quickly] and smoothly,” said Tanjung. He noted that one major challenge for the Belt and Road scheme to gain currency in Indonesia would be the country’s past experience in working closely with Japan.

“Indonesia has been supported by [the] Japanese [for] already more than 14 years in [its] infrastructure development,” explained Tanjung, pointing to the “differences” between Japanese and Chinese business practices as a significant obstacle that had to be overcome. He praised Singapore for being the “smarter” investor by virtue of its proximity to and understanding of Indonesia.

Speaking on the same panel, Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, chairman of Philippine conglomerate Ayala Corp., also said the employment issue would be a source of potential tension arising from the Belt and Road Initiative. “There is a need to assimilate and build trust with the local environment,” he said, pointing to the large state-owned companies that normally win projects in the region.

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Jakarta, CNN Indonesia — Industri ritel nasional agaknya ‘batuk-batuk’ di era pertumbuhan ekonomi moderat sekarang ini. Lihatlah sederet kasus peritel, seperti Hypermart yang sibuk berunding memohon kelonggaran bayar dengan pemasoknya, Ramayana yang menutup delapan gerainya, hingga yang paling parah, yaitu 7-Eleven menyetop seluruh operasionalnya.

Banyak ekonom kemudian menunjuk daya beli sebagai biang kerok. Memang, kalau ditelisik, tren daya beli masyarakat melemah dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Indikatornya, pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga melambat. Data kuartalan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melansir dari 5,59 persen pada kuartal kedua 2014 lalu, menjadi 4,95 persen periode yang sama tahun ini.

Harap maklum, Ekonom Universitas Indonesia Rhenald Kasali mengatakan, ekonomi negara-negara di dunia juga melambat. Ambil contoh, riteler kelas kakap di Amerika Serikat, seperti Macy’s, Kohl’s, Walmart, dan Sears yang menutup ratusan toko mereka karena merugi tahun lalu.

Permasalahannya, apa daya beli jadi satu-satunya alasan riteler meradang?

Rhenald menampik hal itu. Kewajiban bayar Hypermat kepada pemasok yang tertunggak dan penutupan delapan gerai Ramayana, menurutnya, cuma sebagian kecil.
Toh, tidak ada gelombang Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK) besar-besaran,” ujarnya kepada CNNIndonesia.com, Sabtu (26/8).

Pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal kedua pun boleh dibilang masih bagus, yakni 5,01 persen. Lalu, inflasi relatif terjaga di kisaran 3,88 persen per Juli 2017.

Nah, kemudian ‘batuk-batuk’ peritel ini, apa saja penyebabnya? Rhenald menilai, pergeseran penduduk dari kota-kota besar ke pinggiran, perubahan pola belanja masyarakat dari sebelumnya toko fisik (offline) ke toko online, perkembangan teknologi, termasuk peningkatan kelas ekonomi di masyarakat.

Di Jakarta, misalnya, penduduk yang bergeser ke pinggiran tidak lagi membanjiri pertokoan seperti Mangga Dua, Tanah Abang, atau Glodok. Melainkan berbelanja online. Selain karena alasan efisien, harga yang ditawarkan toko online pun lebih bersaing.

Teknologi juga telah memudahkan kebutuhan hidup orang banyak. Jangankan untuk belanja grosir, platform transportasi daring bahkan memungkinkan orang untuk memanggil tukang pijat ke rumah, tukang bersih-bersih rumah, atau antar-jemput barang.

Hal ini juga dibenarkan oleh Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Ritel Indonesia (Aprindo) Roy Mandey. Perlambatan pertumbuhan bisnis ritel diakuinya memang terjadi. Sehingga, banyak dari kalangan peritel yang mengalami penurunan omzet.

“Tetapi, tidak semata-mata karena daya beli. Kami menyadari, peritel butuh rekonsiliasi untuk memenangkan persaingan, misalnya dengan merelokasi toko, renovasi, pintar-pintar inovasi lah,” terang dia.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk sepertinya melihat peluang itu. Makanya, manajemen santai saja dengan rencana perseroan menutup delapan gerainya di beberapa kota pada 28 Agustus nanti.

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Setiadi Surya, Sekretaris Perusahaan Ramayana mengungkapkan, penutupan tidak bersifat permanen. Melainkan, untuk kebutuhan renovasi dalam satu-dua bulan ke depan. Lagipula, penutupan khusus divisi supermarket.

Ibarat kata, berbenah. Ya, perseroan tengah melakukan pembaruan sejumlah gerai, sekaligus berhitung untung-rugi dan luas gerai. Penutupan dilakukan terhadap gerai supermarket yang dianggap tidak terlalu menguntungkan.

“Misalnya, untuk Ramayana di Lampung, luas gerai supermarketnya kami kecilkan. Sementara, Ramayana di Pondok Gede, hanya gerai supermarketnya kami tutup, tetapi toko fesyen tetap ada,” imbuh Setiadi.

Perputaran Roda Ekonomi

Rhenald menegaskan, fenomena riteler gulung tikar belum terjadi di Indonesia. Tidak dalam waktu dekat. Namun, yang patut diperhatikan, perubahan pola belanja masyarakat memang mengarah dari toko offline ke toko online.

Bank Indonesia (BI) menyebutkan bahwa belanja online masyarakat mencapai Rp75 triliun di sepanjang tahun lalu. Jika dibagi secara rata-rata pengguna internet yang berbelanja online sebanyak 24,73 juta orang, maka setiap orang mengirim uang mereka sebesar Rp3 juta per tahun ke transaksi dunia maya.

Alasan lain, bejibunnya jumlah wirausaha muda yang tersebar di platform marketplace, seperti Tokopedia, Bukalapak, OLX, Blibli dan Elevania. Wirausaha-wirausaha muda ini disebut-sebut baru muncul beberapa tahun belakangan.

“Akhirnya, terjadinya peningkatan kelas ekonomi di masyarakat. Yang biasanya naik motor, mulai menyentuh mobil Low Cost Green Car yang harganya terjangkau. Mereka juga mulai liburan ke luar negeri. Roda ekonomi berputar, pengusaha tua mungkin tak merasakan ini, karena ini giliran wirausaha muda,” tutur Rhenald.

Jangan heran, jika Tokopedia misalnya, mampu mencetak penjualan Rp1 triliun per bulan di tahun lalu. Atau Blibli yang sukses meraup pertumbuhan penjualan hingga 200 persen pada momentum ramadan dan lebaran Juni lalu, serta OLX yang kebanjiran hingga 580 ribu calon pembeli mobil bekas dan 550 ribu calon pembeli motor bekas di situsnya.

Anda percaya roda ekonomi sedang berputar? (bir)

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JAKARTA okezone– 98 persen regulasi terkait paket kebijakan ekonomi telah rampung dibahas. Total 98 persen regulasi tersebut sebanyak 200 peraturan, terdiri dari 48 peraturan tingkat Presidensial dan 152 peraturan tingkat Kementerian/Lembaga (K/L).

Tiga peraturan lainnya masih dalam pembahasan dan diharapkan akhir Juni sudah kelar semua. Tiga peraturan itu adalah Rancangan Peraturan Presiden tentang Badan Usaha Penyangga Gas Bumi (Agregator), Rancangan Peraturan Menteri Tenaga Kerja tentang Komponen Hidup Layak, dan Revisi Peraturan Menteri Komunikasi dan Informatika Nomor 32 Tahun 2014 tentang Tata Cara Pemberian Izin Penyelenggaraan Pos.

Perkembangan penyelesaian regulasi Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi tersebut mengemuka dalam Rapat Koordinasi Persiapan Rapat Paripurna Satuan Tugas Percepatan dan Efektivitas Pelaksanaan Kebijakan Ekonomi, Senin (27/6/2016) di Jakarta.

Rapat yang dipimpin Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution ini dihadiri oleh Menteri Koordinator Bidang Politik, Hukum, dan HAM Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, Kepala staf Kepresidenan Teten Masduki, Kepala Badan Ekonomi Kreatif Triawan Munaf, dan pejabat kementerian/lembaga terkait.

Rapat juga mendengarkan laporan dari empat Pokja yang bernaung di bawah Satuan Tugas. Pokja I (Kampanye dan Diseminasi) akan memfokuskan publikasi berdasarkan success story adanya Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi.

(Baca Juga: Presiden Jokowi Resmikan 4 Pokja Pengawal Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi)

Materi komunikasi dibuat dalam dua bentuk. Satu yang sifatnya universal dan yang lainnya disesuaikan berdasarkan target audiences. Target audiences yang dimaksud adalah masyarakat internasional, masyarakat Indonesia, pelaku usaha, media, akademisi, lembaga keuangan, birokrasi internal, pusat dan daerah.

Pokja II telah siap melakukan monitoring dan/atau evaluasi substansi atas 200 regulasi yang telah selesaipembahasan.

Dari hasil pemetaan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi, Pokja III (Evaluasi dan Analisa Dampak) akan fokus pada regulasi yang memiliki high impact untuk dievaluasi efektivitasnya. Pemetaan tersebut berdasarkan awareness, persepsi, dan efektivitas yang didapat dari survey, focus group discussion, dan liason.

Pemerintah akan terus melakukan serangkaian kebijakan deregulasi ekonomi untuk meningkatkan daya saing industri, investasi, ekspor, wisata, serta daya beli masyarakat.

Kebijakan deregulasi ekonomi efektif apabilapertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 2016 mencapai 5,1 persen dan meningkat pada tahun berikutnya sampai diatas 7 persen pada tahun 2019.

Pemerintah menargetkan daya beli masyarakat meningkat sehingga pertumbuhan konsumsi tetap di atas 5 persen. Investasi di sektor manufaktur juga ditargetkan meningkat dan terdistribusi ke luar Pulau Jawa. Capaian lain yang diharapkan adalah berkembangnya jenis produk ekspor yang bernilai tambah tinggi dan perluasan pasar serta peningkatan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara yang tersebar ke seluruh destinasi.

“Bagus kalau Satgas menjelaskan kasus yang sudah diselesaikan dan testimoni konkret dari masyarakat yang merasakan dampak positif Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi,” kata Darmin.

Sedangkan Menteri Polhukam mengharapkan tim satgas juga melihat masalah ketidakefisienan yang selama ini terjadi, termasuk kalau ada kendala akibat adanya pasal-pasal dalam peraturan perundang-undangan yang sudah tak sesuai lagi dengan kebutuhan.

(dni)

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JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Kebijakan pengampunan pajak atau tax amnesty tidak hanya diterapkan oleh pemerintah Indonesia saja.

Kebijakan tax amnesty telah banyak diterapkan di negara maju maupun negara berkembang.

Contohnya, Brazil dan Argentina baru-baru ini juga mengeluarkan kebijakan tax amnesty.

Pengamat perpajakan dari Univesitas Indonesia Danny Darussalam mengatakan sudah ada 31 negara yang telah menerapkan kebijakan tax amnesty, yang tujuannya untuk menambah penerimaan negara dari pajak akibat perlambatan ekonomi Dunia.

“Bahkan Amerika Serikat, dari total 50 negara bagiannya, 90 persen atau 45 negara bagian pernah menerapkan tax amnesty,” kata Danny Senin (20/6/2016) di Jakarta.

Menurut Danny tax amnesty bisa dijadikan jalan keluar bagi wajib pajak (WP) yang selama ini belum patuh untuk menjadi patuh.

Dengan tax amnesty, kata Danny, WP tidak patuh dengan WP patuh akan dikenakan pajak secara adil, sehingga meningkatkan penerimaan pajak.

“Tax amnesty justru memberikan keadilan karena beban pajak tidak dibebankan kepada WP yang itu-itu saja,” ujar Danny.

Selain itu, tax amnesty juga bisa mengurangi penumpang gelap atau WP yang menikmati pembangunan tanpa membayar pajak.

Apalagi menurut Danny, terdapat sebanyak 40-48 persen WP yang tidak patuh melaporkan Surat Pemberitahuan Tahunan (SPT) selama empat tahun terakhir.

Namun, kata Danny, tax amnesty  juga dapat mengakibatkan ketidakpatuhan jika WP berharap ada lagi tax amnesty di masa yang akan datang.

“Untuk itu, perlu pernyataan tegas dari pemerintah bahwa tax amnesty yang digulirkan adalah yang terakhir dan tidak akan pernah ada lagi tax amnesty jilid berikutnya,” pungkas Danny.

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Jakarta berita1 – Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Bambang Brodjonegoro menegaskan bahwa pengampunan pajak (tax amnesty) bukan “jebakan Batman” untuk menggiring masuk wajib pajak yang tidak melaporkan kekayaan, kemudian setelah masuk mereka akan diperiksa dan dipermasalahkan.

“Saya tegaskan bahwa tax amnesty bukan ‘jebakan Batman’, yakni menarik wajib pajak di luar negeri terus kita kenakan macam-macam,” ujar menkeu saat berbuka bersama dengan pimpinan media massa di Jakarta, Kamis (16/6).

Pada kesempatan ini, menkeu menjelaskan perkembangan terbaru RUU Tax Amnesty yang sedang dalam pembahasan dengan Panja DPR dan progres pembahasan RUU APBN Perubahan 2016.

Menkeu menyatakan, semangat tax amnesty adalah repatriasi, menarik masuk dana-dana dan kekayaan wajib pajak yang disimpan di luar negeri yang selama ini tidak dilaporkan dalam surat pemberitahunan (SPT) tahunan pajak. “Setelah mereka melaporkan dengan benar, wajib pajak akan merasa lega dan bebas menginvestasikan dana tersebut ke mana saja tanpa ketakutan diperiksa aparat pajak,” tegasnya.

Menurut Bambang, berdasarkan data internal pemerintah, ada 214.488 perusahaan cangkang (special purpose vehicle/SPV) dan 6.519 rekening di luar negeri yang dimiliki oleh warga negara Indonesia (WNI) dan belum dicatatkan asetnya. Nilai lebih dari Rp 11.450 triliun selama periode 1995-2015.

Sekretaris Jenderal Kementerian Keuangan Hadiyanto selaku wakil pemerintah dalam panitia kerja (panja) dalam pembahasan RUU Tax Amnesty menyatakan ada tiga aspek krusial yang dibahas dalam RUU tersebut. Pertama, bagaimana tax amnesty memberikan rasa aman kepada wajib pajak. Itu harus tercermin dalam formulasi.

Aspek kedua adalah bagaimana agar wajib pajak tertarik memanfaatkan tax amnesty dengan proses yang tidak berbelit serta tarif yang kompetitif.

Aspek ketiga adalah kepastian kerahasiaan data. Bagaimana data yang sudah disampaikan untuk keperluan tax amnesty ini benar-benar dijaga kerahasiaannya dan dilarang dibocorkan untuk kepentingan apa pun, termasuk untuk penyidikan atau keperluan pengadilan.

“Itulah yang membuat proses pembahasan lama, termasuk yang penting adalah bagaimana pasca-repatriasi para wajib pajak merasa nyaman dan tenang,” kata Hadiyanto.

Tarif Tebusan
Lebih lanjut menkeu menjelaskanpembahasan RUU Tax Amnesty cukup kondusif. Fraksi-fraksi dan panja mendukung RUU tersebut. Sebagian besar substansi sudah disepakati, tinggal masalah tarif tebusan dan periode pemberlakuan yang sengaja pembahasannya digeser ke tahap akhir.

“DPR dan pemerintah sepakat bahwa UU ini harus saleable, sehingga banyak menarik minat,” tuturnya.

Karena semangat utama UU Tax Amnesty adalah repatriasi, pemerintah telah berkoordinasi dengan Bank Indonesia, OJK, Bursa Efek Indonesia, dan para manajer investasi untuk memanfaatkan momentum ini guna menarik capital inflow sebanyak mungkin.

Capital inflow sangat berguna bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Kita tahu bahwa capital inflow saat ini cenderung meninggalkan emerging economies dan lari ke Amerika Serikat, Eropa, dan Jepang,” kata menkeu.

Menkeu masih berpatokan pada asumsi bahwa penerimaan pajak dari tax amnesty mencapai Rp 165 triliun, yang bersumber dari dana repatriasi sebesar Rp 1.000 triliun dan dana yang dideklarasi sebesar Rp 4.000 triliun. Apabila hasil tax amnesty di bawah ekspektasi, yakni dana yang dideklarasi dan direpatriasi tidak sesuai dengan data yang dimiliki pemerintah, para wajib pajak akan diperiksa.

“Jika dari pemeriksaan mereka memang tidak melaporkan asetnya, akan dikenai penalti yang lebih besar,” ujar menkeu.

Menyinggung soal tarif, menkeu menyatakan bahwa ada kesepakatan bahwa tarif tebusan untuk dana yang direpatriasi akan dibuat serendah mungkin. Sedangkan tarif untuk dana yang hanya dideklarasi akan jauh lebih tinggi, minimal dua kali lipat.

“Sebab, kalau tarifnya tidak beda jauh, dikhawatirkan nanti mereka hanya mendeklarasi aset-asetnya, bukan merepatriasi,” katanya.

Sedangkan periode pemberlakuan, awalnya memang hanya Juli-Desember 2016, namun bisa diperpanjang hingga Maret atau April tahun depan. Menkeu yakin RUU Tax Amnesty selesai akhir Juni ini, sebelum RAPBN Perubahan 2016 disahkan.

“RAPBNP diharapkan tuntas sebelum Lebaran, setelah itu kita baru membahas RAPBN 2017,” ujar menkeu.

Menkeu juga mengungkapkan bahwa potensi besar dana yang dideklarasi juga bersumber dari dalam negeri. Itu berasal dari rekening bank dan aset-aset tanah. “Ternyata kebanyakan saat beli tanah tidak memakai nama sendiri, tetapi pakai nama karyawan atau orang lain. Ada misalnya 100 sertifikat beda nama padahal yang punya satu orang atau satu developer. Itu nanti pasti akan kena, dan dihitung dari nilai wajar, bukan harga saat beli,” ucapnya.

RAPBNP 2016
Tentang RAPBNP 2016, Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal, Suahasil Nazara menyatakan menyangkut asumsi pertumbumbuhan ekonomi, pemerintah menilai yang realistis adalah 5,1 persen. Jika DPR menghendaki 5,2 persen, pemerintah juga tetap optimistis hal itu bisa dicapai dengan berbagai upaya, termasuk dukungan pelonggaran moneter yang dilakukan BI dengan memangkas suku bunga acuan serta penyerapan anggaran yang maksimal.

Asumsi lain yang disepakati adalah laju inflasi 4 persen, kurs rupiah Rp 13.500 per dolar AS, harga minyak mentah (ICP) sebesar US$ 40 per barel, lifting minyak 820 barel per hari, danlifting gas 1.150 bph setara minyak.

Menkeu menambahkan, pemerintah juga memberikan penyertaan modal negara (PMN) baru untuk PLN sebesar Rp 13 triliun, BPJS Kesehatan Rp 6 triliun, serta Lembaga Manajemen Aset Negara (LMAN).

Selain itu, Kemkeu mengonversi dana alokasi umum (DAU) tunai menjadi nontunai dalam bentuk SPN bertenor 3 bulan. Hal ini diberikan kepada tiga provinsi dan tiga kabupaten sebagai uji coba. Langkah itu ditempuh mengingat DAU yang ditransfer ke daerah banyak tidak terpakai (idle).

“Ada sekitar Rp 238 triliun dana pemda yang idle dan disimpan di bank. Uang itu kan seharusnya dibelanjakan agar menggerakkan ekonomi daerah. Jadi pemberian DAU noncash ini untuk memberi pelajaran agar pemda jangan sembarangan membiarkan anggaran idle,” kata menkeu.

 

Hari Gunarto/AB

Investor Daily

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ID: Anggota Komisi VI dari Fraksi Partai Gerindra Bambang Haryo Soekartono mengemukakan, negara- negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia, punya permasalahan dalam penyerapan anggaran yang disebut slow back-loaded. Biasanya penyerapan rendah pada awal sampai tengah tahun dan melonjak memasuki akhir tahun anggaran.

 

“Rendahnya penyerapan anggaran merupakan salah satu indikator kegagalan birokrasi,” tegas Bambang kepada Investor Daily.

 

Menurut dia, pemerintah harus melihat apa sesungguhnya yang terjadi yang menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal I-2016 lebih rendah dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya. Padahal, sudah ada XII paket kebijakan ekonomi yang digulirkan, namun paket-paket tersebut belum membawa dampak signifikan.

 

Bambang menyebut sejumlah faktor penyebab. Pertama, factor energi yang menyebabkan daya saing berkurang. Dia mencontohkan Pertalite di Indonesia dihargai Rp 7.000 per liter, padahal di luar negeri hanya separuhnya. Begitupula solar, di luar negara harga Rp 2.400-3.000 per liter, tapi di dalam negeri Rp 5.150 per liter. “Itu membebani biaya produksi industri,” katanya.

 

Kedua, kata bambang Haryo, harga jual listrik masih tinggi, padahal harga minyak dunia dan batubara terus menurun, sehingga bisnis di Tanah Air tidak kompetitif. “Iklim usaha jadi tidak kondusif, padahal kita punya pesaing di era Masyarakat Ekonomi Asean (MEA) yang cukup dekat  yaitu Kamboja, Vietnam, dan Laos,” ucap dia.

 

Dia menambahkan, faktor ketiga, pemerintah harus memiliki skala prioritas mana infrastruktur yang perlu dibangun dan mana yang bisa ditunda. (im/az)

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Jakarta, CNN Indonesia — Kewajiban bagi 23 bank penerbit kartu kredit untuk melaporkan transaksi nasabahnya kepada Direktorat Jenderal Pajak Kementerian Keuangan (DJP Kemenkeu) sesuai Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) Nomor 39/PMK.03/2016, berpotensi menabrak Rancangan Undang-undang (RUU) Perlindungan Data Pribadi yang tengah disusun Kementerian Komunikasi dan Informatika (Kemenkominfo).

Sinta Dewi, Pakar Hukum Universitas Padjadjaran, mengatakan aturan pelaporan tersebut sangat bertentangan dengan butir RUU yang sedang dibuat. Terlebih data keuangan merupakan data sensitif yang dapat dilihat bila ada perjanjian tertulis serta pengecualian dalam rangka penegakan hukum, perlindungan negara, dan tidak sedikit pun tercantum disebabkan oleh pajak.

“RUU tersebut rencananya akan diusulkan sebagai Program Legislasi Nasional (Prolegnas) tahun depan. Kebijakan laporan kartu kredit ini sedikit berkonflik dengan perlindungan data pribadi yang kami usulkan,” kata Sinta di Jakarta, Rabu (25/5).

Sinta mengungkapkan, perlu ada harmonisasi antara kedua beleid itu. Pasalnya, RUU Perlindungan Data Pribadi memang mengacu pada aturan perlindungan data pribadi di negara-negara Eropa yang lebih ketat dalam perlindungan data pribadi warga negaranya.

Seperti diketahui, PMK Nomor 39/PMK.03/2016 tentang rincian jenis data dan informasi serta tata cara penyampaian data dan informasi yang berkaitan dengan perpajakan mewajibkan bank penerbit kertu kredit untuk melaporkan data detail transaksi kartu kredit nasabahnya.

Adapun aturan tersebut mewajibkan bank atau lembaga penyelenggara kartu kredit melaporkan data dari nasabah yang bersumber dari billing statement atau tagihan. Di antaranya meliputi nama bank, nomor rekening kartu kredit, ID merchant, nama merchant, nama pemilik kartu, Nomor Pokok Wajib Pajak (NPWP), bulan tagihan, tanggal transaksi, rincian dan nilai transaksi dan pagu kredit.

DJP menanti pelaporan perdana atas ketentuan tersebut paling lambat 31 Mei 2016 baik secara elektronik (online) maupun langsung. Selanjutnya, data transaksi kartu kredit nasabah wajib diserahkan setiap akhir bulan.

Genjot Transaksi Tunai

Sementara itu, General Manager Asosiasi Kartu Kredit Indonesia (AKKI) Steve Martha mengungkapkan kebijakan pelaporan transaksi kartu kredit dapat memiliki dampak negatif bagi perekonomian nasional. Hal tersebut dapat terlihat dari kemungkinan semakin besarnya perpindahan transaksi non tunai ke tunai.

Apalagi, masih ada kekhawatiran dari masyarakat terkait keamanan data dari kebijakan pelaporan data kartu kredit oleh perbankan kepada DJP.

“Ada pontesi masyarakat akan pindah menggunakan transaksi tunai karena sudah tidak percaya pada perbankan karena data mereka tidak aman. Akibat hal tersebut tentu yang dirugikan nanti adalah Pemerintah sendiri karena akan keluarkan banyak uang untuk mencetak uang di pasar,” tegasnya.

Steve mengungkapkan, transaksi kartu kredit di Indonesia dalam satu tahun mencapai Rp21 triliun dengan jumlah 20 juta nasabah pemilik kartu kredit. Karena itu, dia berharap DJP dapat memberikan sosialisasi dan meyakinkan para nasabah kartu kredit terkait keamanan data serta mekanismenya.

Namun Direktur Potensi Kepatuhan Perpajakan DJP Yon Arsal menjamin pembukaan data rekening kartu kredit yang akan dilakukan Pemerintah dipastikan tidak membuat wajib pajak harus membayar pajak dua kali atas transaksi yang dilakukannya.

Pembukaan data ini hanya untuk mengecek silang dan menguji kembali data SPT wajib pajak yang sudah disampaikan kepada DJP, sehingga bisa dipastikan setiap data yang dilihat akan tersimpan aman.

“Jadi ini bukan suatu yang luar biasa, semua negara bisa mengakses berbagai data, kita memang belum dan harus lewat prosedur bertahap, jadi ini hanya untuk menguji data dan pembanding,” ujar dia. (gen)

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Jakarta detik -Hari ini, Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan, atau BI Rate tetap di 6,75%. BI mengambil langkah ini karena adanya risiko-risiko eksternal yang meningkat.

Ekonom INDEF, Dzulfian Syafrian, mengatakan risiko pertama yang ada adalah hasil rapat atau biasa disebut Minutes of Meeting (MoM) para petinggi bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), yaitu Federal Reserve (The Fed) pada 27-26 April yang baru saja dirilis.

Dalam dokumen tersebut disampaikan, ada kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga acuan The Fed atau Fed Fund Rate (FFR) pada Juni 2016.

“Terakhir FFR naik sebesar 0,25 persen pada Desember 2015, pertama kali The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam kurun waktu hampir 1 dekade,” jelas Dzulfian kepada detikFinance, Kamis (19/5/2016).

Kandidat Doktor Durham University Business School-Inggris ini mengatakan, dampak dari rencana kenaikan suku bunga acuan tersebut, dolar AS langsung mengalami penguatan terhadap sejumlah mata uang termasuk rupiah. Hari ini memang dolar AS mendekati Rp 13.600.

“Dolar AS mengalami penguatan/apresiasi, sedangkan pasar saham Amerika dan juga emas mengalami penurunan. Contoh, Indeks S&P 500 mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,2 persen setelah pengumuman hasil rapat ini, padahal sebelumnya mengalami kenaikan sekitar 0,6 persen. Emas juga mengalami penurunan sebesar 1,2 persen,” papar Dzulfian.

Dia menjelaskan, kemungkinan kenaikan FFR ini didorong oleh data-data perekonomian Amerika yang terus membaik, seperti inflasi, tenaga kerja, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi AS, menurut Dzulfian, sepertinya akan mendekati target yang telah ditentukan yaitu mencapai 2%.

Pasar tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS juga sepertinya terus menguat. Jika data-data ini terus menunjukkan perbaikan, bukan tidak mungkin FFR akan naik pada Juni nanti.

Lalu risiko kedua adalah ketidakpastian global yang disebabkan oleh gonjang-ganjing keluarnya Inggris Raya (UK) dari Uni Eropa (EU), atau dikenal dengan istilah ‘Brexit’ yaitu singkatan dari ‘Britain Exits’. UK akan mengadakan pemilu untuk menentukan apakah mereka tetap berada di EU atau keluar pada 23 Juni mendatang. Isu Brexit ini sangat menjadi perhatian dunia, khususnya negara-negara Eropa dan AS.

“Risiko eksternal selanjutnya adalah kebingungan pasar atas kebijakan pemerintah China terhadap nilai tukar,” ujar Dzulfian.

Sebagaimana diketahui, nilai tukar adalah salah satu senjata utama perekonomian China. Dzulfian menjelaskan, China mendevaluasi mata uangnya dalam rangka memberikan insentif untuk barang-barang ekspornya agar kompetitif, murah dan laku di pasar internasional.

“Selain itu, kita ketahui bahwa China adalah negara pengekspor terbesar di dunia, praktis segala macam hal-hal terkait kebijakan ekspor China, khususnya nilai tukar, pasti akan berdampak pada perekonomian dunia,” ungkapnya.

(wdl/wdl)

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INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Akhirnya, Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasional mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI. Apa saja yang diatur dalam paket ini?

Didampingi Sekretaris Kabinet Pramono Anung, Menko Darmin menerangkan soal paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI di Istana Presiden, Jakarta, Selasa (29/3/2016).

Kata Darmin, paket ini fokus mengatur program KUR (Kredit Usaha Rakyat) untuk memajukan pelaku usaha kecil dan menengah (UKM) serta usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) yang eksport oriented. “Bunga KUR untuk UMKM berorientasi ekspor, tetap sama, yaitu 9 persen,” kata Menko Darmin.
Latar belakang dikeluarkannya kebijakan KUR Berorientasi Ekspor (KURBE), kata mantan Gubernur Bank Indonesia era Presiden SBY ini, menyasar UMKM yang memiliki potensi dan keunggulan kreativitas, serta usaha yang menghasilkan produk ekspor. Selain juga bertujuan untuk penganekaragaman produk ekspor Indonesia.

Selama ini, kata Darmin, upaya menggenjot ekspor produk UMKM acapkali terkendala masalah pembiayaan, serta kapasitas. Yang menyangkut Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM), pemasaran, dan pemenuhan standar perdagangan internasional yang ketat.

Inti dari kebijakan KURBE ini, kata Darmin, adalah menyediakan fasilitas pembiayaan ekspor yang lengkap dan terpadu untuk modal kerja (Kredit Modal Kerja Ekspor/KMKE) dan investasi (Kredit Investasi Ekspor/KIE) bagi UMKM.

Selain itu, KURBE juga menyalurkan pembiayaan kepada pelaku UMKM yang berorientasi ekspor (UMKM Ekspor), dilakukan oleh Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia/LPEI (Indonesia Eximbank). Di mana, batas maksimal untuk KURBE Mikro sebesar Rp5 miliar, KURBE Kecil Rp25 miliar (dengan ketentuan maksimal KMKE sebesar Rp15 miliar).

Sedangkan untuk KURBE Menengah, batas maksimal sebesar Rp50 Miliar (dengan ketentuan maksimal KMKE sebesar Rp25 miliar). Pemerintah menetapkan jangka waktu KURBE paling lama 3 tahun untuk KMKE dan/atau 5 tahun untuk KIE.

Selain KURBE, paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI mengatur adanya pemberian fasilitas pajak penghasilan (PPn) serta Bea Perolehan Atas Hak Tanah dan Bangunan (BPHTB) Untuk Penerbitan Dana Investasi Real Estate (DIRE).

Alasan dari kebijakan ini adalah perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah selama empat tahun terakhir, berdampak kepada terpuruknya bisnis properti.

Kebijakan itu juga dalam rangka penghimpunan dana untuk perluasan usaha, beberapa pengusaha realestat Indonesia menerbitkan Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) atau DIRE di pasar modal negara tetangga.

Kebijakan itu juga dilatarbelkangi jumlah DIRE di dalam negeri sangat rendah yaitu hanya ada 1 DIRE yang diterbitkan sejak tahun 2012.

Tidak menariknya DIRE di Indonesia disebabkan pengenaan pajak berganda dan tarif pajak yang lebih tinggi dari negara tetangga Untuk meningkatkan penerbitan DIRE di dalam negeri, pada paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid V telah diterbitkan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan Nomor 200 Tahun 2015 tentang Perlakuan Perpajakan bagi Wajib Pajak dan Pengusaha Kena Pajak yang Menggunakan Skema Kontrak Investasi Kolektif Tertentu Dalam Rangka Pendalaman Sektor Keuangan. Peraturan Menteri Keuangan ini menghapus pengenaan pajak berganda dalam penerbitan DIRE.

Penerbitan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan Nomor 200 Tahun 2015 belum mampu meningkatkan daya tarik penerbitan DIRE di Indonesia, karena tarif pajak yang dikenakan masih lebih tinggi dibandingkan negara tetangga.

Paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI juga mengatur sektor logistik, yaitu pengendalian risiko untuk memperlancar arus barang di pelabuhan (Indonesia Single Risk Management/ISRM). Latar belakang kebijakan ini, untuk penyelesaian customs clearance dan cargo release di pelabuhan masih terkendala oleh pelayanan atas perizinan ekspor impor oleh K/L.

Selain itu, adanya perlakuan pelayanan yang berbeda-beda atas Pengguna Jasa yang sama di setiap Kementerian/Lembaga (K/L), sehingga menimbulkan ketidakpastian dan in-efisiensi dalam kegiatan ekspor impor. Juga pengelolaan risiko pada Kementerian/Lembaga belum dilakukan secara sistematis dan belum terintegrasi.

Kebijakan itu juga dilatarbelkangi oleh posisi Indonesia dalam pemberian komitmen penerapan Trade Facilitation Agreement-World Trade Organization (TFA-WTO) masih rendah, yaitu Indonesia hanya memberikan komitmen dengan kategori A (langsung diterapkan setelah perjanjian entry into force) untuk 3 point perjanjian (pre-arrival processing, use of customs broker, dan penalty discipline) dari 48 poin yang diatur dalam TFA-WTO.

Selain itu, paket ini mendorong agar kinerja logistik bisa smeakin optimal. Di mana, waktu inap barang di pelabuhan atau dwelling time, saat ini, rata-rata mencapai 4,7 hari pada akhir 2015.

Dengan paket ini, layanan kegiatan impor/ekspor bisa semakin optimal dan efisien. Dengan begitu maka kepastian usaha bakal menguat, menekan biaya logisitik, efisiensi waktu dan biaya perizinan.

Dengan singkatnya dwelling time maka pengawasan bisa semakin efektif melalui integrasi pengelolaan risiko diantara Kementerian/Lembaga. Meningkatkan high compliance dan mendorong pelaku usaha untuk patuh karena adanya kepastian waktu pelayanan.

Pokok kebijakan terkait sektor logistik itu adalah mewajibkan semua Kementerian/Lembaga untuk mengembangkan fasilitas pengajuan permohonan perizinan secara tunggal (single submission) melalui Portal Indonesia National Single Window (INSW) untuk pemrosesan perizinan.

Pemerintah menetapkan penerapan Indonesia Single Risk Management (ISRM) dalam sistem INSW dengan melakukan penerapan identitas tunggal dan penyatuan informasi pelaku usaha dalam kegiatan ekspor impor, sebagai base profile risiko dan single treatment dalam pelayanan perizinan masing-masing Kementerian/Lembaga.

Untuk tahap awal meluncurkan model single risk management dalam platform single submission antar BPOM dengan Bea dan Cukai yang diperkirakan dapat menurunkan dwelling time terhadap produk-produk bahan baku obat, makanan minuman, dan produk lain yang membutuhkan perizinan dari BPOM dari 4,7 Hari menjadi sekitar 3,7 Hari pada bulan Agustus 2016.

Pemerintah mewajibkan penerapan single risk management pada Agustus 2016, dan diperluas penerapannya untuk beberapa Kementerian/Lembaga seperti Kementerian Perdagangan, Kementerian Pertanian, sehingga pada akhir tahun 2016, diharapkan dapat berpengaruh pada penurunan dwelling time menjadi 3,5 Hari secara nasional.

Pemerintah juga menetapkan single risk management agar diterapkan secara penuh pada seluruh Kementerian/Lembaga penerbit perizinan ekspor/impor, sehingga akan mendorong tingkat kepatuhan Indonesia terhadap WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement menjadi 70% serta menurunkan dwelling time kurang dari 3 hari pada akhir 2017.

Industri Farmasi& Alat Kesehatan
Dalam paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI juga berisi kebijakan Pengembangan industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan. Saat ini, terdapat 206 industri farmasi yang mendominasi pangsa pasar obat nasional (76%), tetapi 95 persen bahan baku obat masih impor.

Terdapat 95 industri alat kesehatan (alkes) yang memproduksi 60 jenis dengan teknologi middle-low dengan kelas risiko rendah-menengah, dengan pertumbuhan 12% per tahun, tetapi 90% alkes masih impor.

Selain itu, kondisi industri farmasi dan alkes tersebut dan adanya kebijakan Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) yang memerlukan dukungan kemampuan produksi dalam negeri, sehingga perlu diambil langkah-langkah kebijakan yang terintegrasi (tailor-made policy) yang melibatkan dukungan semua Kementerian/Lembaga, BUMN, dan pemangku kepentingan lainnya untuk mempercepat pengembangan industri farmasi.

Tujuan dan manfaat kebijakan itu untuk menjamin ketersediaan sediaan farmasi dan alat kesehatan sebagai upaya peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan dalam rangka Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN).

Selain itu mendorong keterjangkauan harga obat di dalam negeri dan meningkatkan daya saing ekspor, mendorong penguasaan teknologi dan inovasi, mempercepat kemandirian dan pengembangan produksi bahan baku obat dan alat kesehatan.

Pokok kebijakannya yaitu menerbitkan Instruksi Presiden kepada Menteri Kesehatan, Menteri Perindustrian, Menteri Perdagangan, Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara, Menteri Riset, Teknologi, dan Pendidikan Tinggi, Kepala Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan, dan Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal untuk mempercepat kemandirian dan daya saing industri obat dan alat kesehatan dalam negeri.

Pokok-pokok Instruksi Presiden Itu adalah penyusunan road map dan action plan pengembangan industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan.

Selain itu pengembangan riset sediaan farmasi dan alat kesehatan, peningkatan ketersediaan bahan baku natural dan kimia dasar dan komponen pendukung industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan.

Juga penyusunan kebijakan yang mendorong tumbuhnya investasi industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan. Caranya dengan membuka Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI) yang lebih terbuka bagi penanaman modal asing, yaitu untuk bahan baku obat dari 85% menjadi 100% untuk PMA (Penanaman Modal Asing).

Nantinya bakal diterbitkan Inpres yang mendorong peningkatan kemampuan BUMN farmasi dan alat kesehatan, antara lain sinergisitas BUMN, finasial, teknologi, dan Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM).

Selain itu penyusunan kebijakan perdagangan dalam negeri dan luar negeri yang mendukung pengembangan industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan (antara lain e-catalogue, standar obat di rumah sakit dalam rangka Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN), penggunaan produk dalam negeri).

Inpres juga berisi penyusunan kebijakan fiskal untuk industri farmasi dan alat kesehatan (Antara lain pembebasan atau penuranan bea masuk, tax holiday, tax allowance). [tar]

– See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2284346/inilah-isi-paket-kebijakan-ekonomi-jilid-xi#sthash.q6J0OR7J.dpuf

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Merdeka.com – Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengungkapkan pemerintah memutuskan untuk mengeluarkan sistem pengendalian resiko pelabuhan bernama Indonesia Single Risk Management yang dituangkan dalam paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid XI. Sistem ini nantinya akan memangkas dwelling time atau waktu bongkar muat pelabuhan mencapai 1 hari.

Menko Darmin menjabarkan, Indonesia Single Risk Management adalah suatu kesepakatan mengenai standardisasi pemeriksaan barang di pelabuhan. Selama ini, menurutnya, 18 kementerian dan lembaga yang berwenang melakukan pemeriksaan barang di pelabuhan masih belum memiliki standard baku penilaian.

“Selama ini kan ada jalur hijau dan jalur merah di pelabuhan. Sehingga adanya hal ini akan memperlancar arus barang ekspor impor di pelabuhan,” ujarnya di Kantor Presiden, Jakarta, Selasa (29/3).

Dia menjelaskan nantinya proses dwelling time akan menjadi sekitar 3,7 hari atau kurang. Saat ini, per April 2016, proses dwelling time tercatat berada pada posisi 4,7 hari.

“Akan berkurang 1 hari dwelling time,” jelasnya.

Sebelumnya, Presiden Joko Widodo ( Jokowi) menegaskan jangan ada korban berikutnya dalam kasus lamanya waktu bongkar muat peti kemas di pelabuhan (dwelling time). Jokowi pernah mencopot Menko Kemaritiman sebelumnya, Indroyono Soesilo, karena dwelling time yang cukup lama.

“Jangan sampai ada lagi korban dalam kasus dwelling time, saya enggak main-main masalah ini,” tegas Presiden Jokowi di dalam peresmian Pusat Logistik Berikat (PLB) di kawasan industri Cipta Krida Bahari, Cakung, Jakarta Utara, Kamis (10/3).

Presiden Jokowi menceritakan, sebelumnya dia telah melakukan pengecekan langsung terkait izin angkut muat barang di pelabuhan. Saat itu, kata dia, diketahui izin baru keluar dalam waktu enam hingga tujuh hari.

“Padahal Singapura hanya satu hari, Malaysia dua hari. Kita enam sampai tujuh hari,” beber dia.

“Mau bersaing dari mana kalau kita terus seperti itu?” keluhnya.

Pada bulan Januari lalu, Presiden Jokowi juga mengaku sudah memerintahkan agar ada evaluasi izin angkut barang tersebut. Dia ingin Indonesia memiliki sistem dwelling time yang sama dengan negara luar, sehingga akses keluar masuk barang tidak menumpuk di pelabuhan Tanjung Priok.

Di samping itu, Presiden Jokowi memastikan pada bulan depan, dwelling time akan mencapai target yang dia harapkan yaitu pada angka tiga. Dengan demikian efisiensi aktivitas di pelabuhan berjalan lancar.

“Bulan-bulan ini atau bulan depan Insya Allah sudah masuk angka tiga,” tuntasnya.

gifi

Merdeka.com – Pemerintah Jokowi-JK kembali mengeluarkan paket kebijakan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Terhitung sudah sebelas kali pemerintahan Jokowi mengeluarkan stimulus kebijakan mendorong perekonomian.

Pada paket kebijakan XI ini, pemerintah fokus memperbaiki industri farmasi dan kesehatan dalam negeri. Pemerintah akan mengeluarkan instruksi presiden (Inpres) guna mendorong produksi obat dalam negeri, sehingga harga bisa bersaing.

“Agak panjang nanti langkah langkah yang akan akan kita ambil. Kita akan terbitkan Instruksi Presiden (Inpres) ke kementerian dan lembaga terkait guna mempercepat daya saing obat dalam negeri. Saya tidak bisa jelaskan teknisnya di sini, tapi nanti akan ada pengembangan riset, mendorong investasi industri farmasi dan lainnya,” ucap Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution di Jakarta, Selasa (29/3).

Menurut Darmin, paket kebijakan soal farmasi ini harus dikeluarkan karena mayoritas bahan baku obat dalam negeri masih harus diimpor. Saat ini, tercatat 216 industri farmasi dalam negeri yang menguasai 76 persen pangsa pasar dalam negeri.

“Dari pangsa pasar itu, sebenarnya kalau dipelajari impornya masih 95 persen untuk bahan baku obat. Obatnya sudah buatan dalam negeri, tetapi bahan baku obatnya masih 95 persen dari 216 industri farmasi tadi itu impor. Baru 5 persen bahan baku dalam negeri,” tegas Darmin.

Selain itu, Indonesia saat ini mempunyai 95 industri kesehatan yang memproduksi 65 jenis alat kesehatan teknologi menengah dan rendah. Pertumbuhan industri alat kesehatan tercatat 12 persen setiap tahunnya. Namun, 90 persen alat kesehatan dalam negeri masih harus dipenuhi impor.

“Memperhatikan kondisi itu semua dan adanya kebijakan Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN) yang memerlukan dukungan produksi dalam negeri, maka diambil langkah kebijakan terintegrasi spesifik satu per satu melibatkan semua kementerian, lembaga, pemangku kepentingan lainnya.”

Dari segi obat-obatan, saat ini tercatat 939 jenis obat yang tercatat di BPJS Kesehatan. Kebutuhan masyarakat didominasi jenis vitamin B, obat penurun panas seperti paracetamol, serta amoksilin. Total penjualan obat tahun lalu mencapai Rp 62,1 triliun.

“Karena itu kemudian kita menyusun SOP sedemikian rupa sehingga BPJS menggunakan produk obat dalam negeri tersebut. Apalagi setelah bahan baku dalam negeri pasti obat akan turun lebih rendah lagi,” tutup Darmin.

valentineEVERYsmall

[idr]

INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Ekonom Bank Mandiri Anton Gunawan meyakini bahwa perekonomian 2016 tak akan jauh-jauh dari 2015 alias jalan di tempat.

“Apakah ekonomi kita membaik? No,” papar Anton di Kampus Atma Jaya, Jakarta, Senin (21/03/2016).

Pesimisme Anton, tentu saja ada alasannya. Beberapa indikator ekonomi mulai dari inflasi tinggi, turunnya impor serta stagnant-nya impor barang.

“inflasi masih terlalu tinggi menurut saya sekarang ini, harusnya lebih rendah lagi, yang lebih membuat slowdown adalah impor turun dengan drastis, ekspor enggak naik. apakah dianggap perbaikan. Belum tentu,” papar Ekonom ini.

Ekonom menilai, penilaian lembaga luar negeri, seperti IMF, World Bank memang menunjukan data-data yang mengagumkan, namun apakah ini sudah cukup membuat optimisme ekonomi dalam negeri.

“Kita lihat data global keliatannya indikator-indikator menunjukkan perbaikan. Secara angka-angka ya, membaik, dibelakang itu apakah ekonomi kita membaik?,” tanya dia lagi.

Sebelummnya, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution tidak mau terburu-buru mengatakan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia mulai membaik.

“Saya belum lihat rinciannya, yang saya tahu surplus migasnya ada sedikit saja, yang nonmigasnya ini lebih besar,” ujar Darmin.

Menurut dia, peningkatan kinerja ekspor pada bulan Februari memang sangat menggembirakan, namun dirinya tidak mau mengambil kesimpulan apakah kondisi ini akan terus berlangsung lama, mengingat kinerja impor Indonesia mengalami penurunan.

“Tapi sebetulnya kalau perekonomian kita bergerak naik, nilai impor mestinya pelan-pelan juga naik,” papar mantan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) ini.

Walaupun sebetulnya kata dia, saat ini tren perekonomian Indonesia memang cukup bagus dalam ekspor karena ada peningkatan. Namun dari sisi impor Indonesia masih mengalami penurunan. Hal ini dipastikan Darmin, jelas akan membuat nerasa perdagangan di bulan Februari 2016 menjadi surplus.

“Perbaikan ini belum seutuhnya berjalan baik. Sebab nilai impor Indonesia jutru masih turun,” kata dia.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melansir neraca perdagangan pada Februari 2016 mencatatkan surplus US$ 1,14 miliar. Di mana, nilai ekspor mencapai US$ 11,3 miliar, sementara impor US$ 10,16 miliar.

Namun nilai impor Indonesia Februari 2016 mencapai US$ 10,16 miliar, atau turun 2,91% dibandingkan Januari 2016. Hal ini juga menurun dibanding 11,71% dibanding Februari 2015.

– See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2282619/ekonom-siapa-bilang-ekonomi-indonesia-sudah-baik#sthash.O2Dz2gqt.dpuf

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TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – PT Lintas Marga Sedaya (LMS), pengelola jalan Tol Cikopo – Palimanan (Cipali) berencana dalam waktu dekat untuk memberikan diskon hingga 30 persen bagi kendaraan Golongan II sampai dengan V.

Program diskon ini untuk memberikan kemudahan dan kenyamanan bagi pengemudi kendaraan golongan II–V, sekaligus mendukung pertumbuhan bisnis logistik, terutama di daerah-daerah yang dihubungkan oleh Tol Cipali.

Wakil Direktur Utama LMS, Hudaya Arryanto (Hudaya) mengatakan, pProgram ini merupakan inisiatif dan peran aktif LMS dalam meningkatkan layanan kepada pengguna jalan tol, terutama kendaraan Golongan II–V.

“Program ini diharapkan dapat ikut mendorong peningkatan arus logistik antar daerah, yang akan berkontribusi positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi lokal,” kata Hudaya.

Program diskon ini berlaku selama bulan April 2016. Seluruh pengemudi kendaraan Golongan II – V yang melalui Tol Cipaliakan mendapatkan diskon tariff tol hingga 30 persen.

“Melalui program ini diharapkan semakin banyak pengendara truk yang dapat mengakses dan merasakan manfaat Tol Cipali,” tutur Hudaya di Jakarta, Rabu, 16 Maret 2016.

Keberadaan jalur Tol Cipali memangkas jarak tempuh hingga 40 KM dan waktu tempuh hingga 1,5 – 2 jam sekali jalan jika dibandingkan dengan jalur Pantura.

Selain efisiensi waktu, penggunaan jalur tol Cipali juga akan mengurangi biaya BBM serta menekan biaya perawatan (maintenance), karena kendaraan di tol akan mencapai kecepatan yang optimal (RPM rendah, kecepatan konstan).

Efisiensi waktu dan jarak tempuh ini juga berpotensi meningkatkan efisiensi pengangkutan barang, sehingga akan mendorong peningkatan ritase truk.

“Hal ini akan berdampak positif pada peningkatan produktifitas dan optimalisasi bisnis para pengusaha truk,” tambah Hudaya.

Selain program bulan diskon, LMS juga berencana menawarkan kerjasama strategis kepada pengusaha logistik dan truk untuk optimalisasi manfaat jalur tol Cipali.

Melalui kerjasama ini, perusahaan logistik yang bekerja sama dengan LMS akan mendapatkan sejumlah keuntungan dari Tol Cipali.

Rencana kerjasama strategis yang akan ditawarkan kepada pengusaha truk ini merupakan komitmen LMS untuk mengoptimalkan manfaat Tol Cipali sebagai salah satu solusi strategis dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sosial.

Baik lokal maupun nasional, khususnya untuk industri logistik, pariwisata dan properti.

Tol Cipali memiliki panjang total 116,75 kilometer, diresmikan penggunaannya oleh Presiden Jokowi bulan Juni 2015 dan merupakan jalan tol terpanjang di Indonesia.

Jalan tol ini merupakan sambungan dari Jalan Tol Jakarta-Cikampek, menghubungkan Jalan Tol Palimanan-Kanci. Tol Cipalijuga menjadi bagian dari Jalan Tol Trans Jawa yang menghubungkan Merak, Banten hingga Banyuwangi, Jawa Timur.

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JAKARTA – Sore ini nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) kembali mengalami penguatan. Rupiah ditutup mendekati level Rp13.000 per USD.

Menanggapi hal ini, Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo mengaku turut bersyukur dengan perkasanya nilai tukar di pasar valas.

“Iya, iya, iya. Saya juga ikut bersyukur,” kata dia di Gedung DPR, Kamis (10/3/2016).

Lebih lanjut Agus mengatakan, menguatnya nilai tukar Rupiah juga karena kepercayaan terhadap Indonesia semakin meningkat. Reformasi struktural dan kebijakan yang ditempuh pemerintah menjadi salah satu pemicu menguatnya Rupiah.

“Kebijakan yang kelihatannya cukup konsisten di jalankan juga upaya pengendalian inflasi dan juga trade surplus, ini membawa confident dan membawa dana yang cukup besar ke Indonesia, dana yang masuk itu kan sudah lebih dari Rp30 triliun kan,” cetusnya.

Untuk diketahui, melansir Yahoofinance, nilai tukar Rupiah menguat 72,5 poin atau 0,55 persen ke angka Rp13.050 per USD. Adapun pada penutupan sebelumnya Rupiah berada di angka Rp13.122 per USD.

Sedangkan untuk pergerakkan harian, Rupiah berada di kisaran terendah Rp13.050 per USD dan kisaran tertinggi Rp13.160 per USD.

Sementara itu, Bloomberg Dollar Index dalam perdagangan Spot Exchange Rate di Asia, mencatat nilai tukar Rupiah menguat 105 poin atau 0,80 persen ke angka Rp13.052 per USD. Adapun pergerakkan hariannya berada di kisaran Rp13.046-Rp13.165 per USD.

Melihat Bank Indonesia, kurs tengah Rupiah berada di level Rp13.149 per USD. Angka tersebut melemah dibandingkan periode sebelumnya di Rp13.128 per USD. Adapun kurs beli yang ditawarkan Rp13.083 per USD dan kurs jual yang ditawarkan Rp13.215 per USD.(rai)

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Impor sudah menjadi semacam ritus tahunan. Impor juga menjadi siklus yang tiada putus di negeri ini. Apa susahnya memutus siklus impor di negeri ‘gemah ripah loh jinawi’ ini? Jawabnya: Susah Sekali.

Indonesia yang konon dijuluki Negeri Agraris justru kondisinya masih miris. Masih saja tidak bisa mandiri pangan. Belum mampu berdikari dalam urusan
swasembada komoditas pangan strategis.

Beras dan daging sapi merupakan dua komoditas pangan yang menjadi ‘pri madona’ impor dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

Cabai, bawang merah, dan kedelai merupakan tanaman hortikultura yang menjadi ‘pelengkap’ paling sering didatangkan dari negara lain. Belakangan, jagung ‘kembali’ ikut meramaikan kha sanah impor komoditas pangan negeri ini.

Di Negeri Nusantara impor selalu dianggap menjadi ‘dewa penyelamat’ kebutuhan perut rakyat. Di sisi lain, impor juga bisa menjadi ‘barang haram’ yang tak patut disebut-sebut, terutama saat ‘panen raya’ ataupun masa kampanye pemilihan petinggi nasional. Swasembada Yes, Impor No.

Boleh jadi, sebagian dari kita masih bisa memaklumi fakta pemerintah masih mengeluarkan kebijakan impor komoditas pangan pada 2015. Impor beras, misalnya dipicu oleh faktor cuaca ekstrim El Nino. Impor daging sapi karena kebutuhan meningkat dan target swasembada era Pemerintahan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono meleset.

Bagaimana dengan tahun ini, apakah Indonesia masih impor komoditas pangan? Niscaya impor. Pemerintah, kata Menteri Perdagangan Thomas Lembong, sulit menghindari impor pangan pada tahun ini untuk menjaga ketersediaan dan meredam kenaikan harga di pasar dalam negeri.

Dia juga melontarkan argumentasi bahwa kebijakan impor untuk penguat an stok dan memenuhi kebutuhan domestik. Komoditas pangan yang akan diimpor pada 2016 antara lain beras, daging sapi berupa sapi bakalan, dan gula mentah (raw sugar).

Impor sapi bakalan diperkirakan sekitar 700.000 ekor hingga 800.000 ekor, raw sugar lebih dari 3 juta ton. Adapun volume impor beras belum ditetapkan alias belum final, masih didiskusikan. Namun, sekali lagi, dan untuk kesekian kali apa yang diungkapkan oleh Menteri Perdagangan ‘tidak nyambung’ dengan pernyataan Menteri Pertanian Amran Sulaiman.

Lalu apa artinya klaim Mentan Amran bahwa Indonesia sudah mampu swasembada beras pada 2015?

Mentan menjelaskan, produksi padi berdasarkan angka sementara 2015 dari BPS naik 6,37% dibandingkan dengan 2014.

Catatan itu menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia telah mampu mencapai swasembada pangan, dan tak perlu lagi mendatangkan beras impor. Dia pun mengklaim prestasi itu sebagai salah satu kebijakan selama memimpin Kementerian Pertanian, antara lain pengadaan alat mesin pertanian (Alsintan), perbaikan saluran irigasi, pemberian dan perbaikan mutu benih padi, serta pengawasan penyaluran pupuk yang tepat sasaran.

BPS menyebut beberapa wilayah yang mengalami kenaikan produktivitas pa da 2015 antara lain adalah Aceh, Sumatra Selatan, Jawa Timur. Jawa Tengah tercatat sebagai daerah dengan produksi padi tertinggi.

Adapun wilayah yang mengalami penurunan adalah Jambi, Kalimantan Barat, dan Jawa Barat. Presiden Jokowi di Istana Presiden belum lama ini, menegaskan perlunya cara pandang yang komprehensif dalam menata permintaan, memperbaiki pasokan, dan memperbarui mata rantai perdagangan.

Presiden meminta Kementan tidak hanya memikirkan petani. Sebaliknya, Kementerian Perdagangan tidak boleh lagi memikirkan aspek perdagangan semata. Dengan kata lain, produsen, pedagang, dan konsumen jangan ada yang dirugikan.

Namun, tampaknya pada 2016 ini pemerintah tidak hanya akan meneken kebijakan impor beras, sapi bakalan, dan gula mentah. Sejumlah komoditas, menurut diskusi dengan sejumlah pelaku dan pakar pertanian yang saya ikuti, bakal kembali diimpor, terutama dari tanaman hortikultura. Sebut saja cabai dan bawang merah.

Ramalan itu hampir pasti terbukti jika pada April-Juni mendatang terjadi cuaca ekstrim La Nina. Kebalikan dari El Nino, La Nina akan mengakibatkan musim dingin lebih panjang ketimbang kemarau.

long jump iconJAKARTA okezone – Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) telah meninjau pembangunan proyekTol Trans Sumatera, di ruas tol Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi dan tol Medan-Binjai pada Rabu 2 Maret 2016. Presiden Jokowi memastikan, tiga ruas tol di Sumatera Utara pun akan rampung pada pertengahan 2017.

Presiden Asosiasi Logistik Indonesia, Zaldy Masita, mengatakan proyek Tol Trans Sumatera tersebut menunjukkan ketidakkonsistenan Jokowi dalam menangani masalah logistik, serta tidak belajar dari kesalahan masa lalu.

Dia menuturkan, bila Tol Trans Sumatera berjalan maka akan membuat pelabuhan-pelabuhan di sepanjang pantai Timur dan Barat Sumatera akan mengalami penurunan volume yang signifikan.

“Pada akhirnya akan membuat pelabuhan-pelabuhan tersebut merana dan merugi, padahal Jokowi sejak masa kampanye menyatakan bahwa laut adalah solusi logistik untuk Indonesia dalam menurunkan biaya logistik,” ujar Zaldy seperti dalam keterangan tertulisnya kepada Okezone, Kamis (3/3/2016).

Sikap tidak konsisten dari Jokowi yakni penurunan volume pelabuhan akibat pindahnya muatan ke tol karena lebih murah membuat bingung para pelaku logistik. Hal ini dikarenakan sektor logistik membutuhkan investasi besar dan jangka panjang.

Menurutnya, masalah Pantura di Jawa, yakni mengenai biaya perawatan jalan setiap tahun, kemacetan dan pemakaian BBM yang besar tidak menjadi pelajaran bagi Jokowi. “Padahal Jokowi punya ide untuk memindahkan muatan dari truk ke laut sampai 30 persen di Pantura. Hanya di Jawa biaya angkut dengan truk lebih murah daripada kereta api dan laut,” jelasnya.

“Sekarang ini di Sumatera biaya angkut laut lebih murah daripada truk tapi hal ini akan berbalik dan kesalahan yang sama akan terulang lagi,” imbuhnya.

(mrt)

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bangkok post: JAKARTA — Indonesia’s central bank cut its main interest rate for the first time in 11 months, prioritising a boost to flagging economic growth over concerns looser policy could trigger further currency weakness.

Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, Bank Indonesia said Thursday. Thirteen of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the decision, while the remainder predicted policy makers would extend a pause. The authority also cut the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits, known as the Fasbi, by 25 basis points to 5.25%.

The rate move came on a day when several people were killed in explosions and gunfire in the biggest attack in the capital since at least 2009, hurting sentiment and adding to financial market turmoil.

The central bank has faced political pressure to ease policy and revive an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2009, while grappling with a rupiah selloff. Contained inflation provides scope for policy makers to cut, though they also have to consider fallout from last week’s sharp drops in China’s currency and stocks.

The decision “is warranted given inflation is turning more favourable, along with more stable external conditions this week,” Euben Paracuelles, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc in Singapore, said ahead of the announcement.

The rupiah has fallen 0.7% this year after a 10% depreciation in 2015. The benchmark Jakarta stock index fell 0.4% as of 1.10pm Bangkok time.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia menyatakan pelaku usaha Tanah Air memiliki kepercayaan diri tinggi untuk berekspansi setelah Bank Indonesia menurunkan suku bunga acuan dari 7,5% menjadi 7,25%.

Hariyadi B. Sukamdani, Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo), mengatakan penurunan suku bunga telah sesuai dengan prediksi dunia usaha serta diluncurkan pada waktu yang tepat.

“Momennya pas. Ini sesuai prediksi. Bahkan perkiraan dan ekspektasi awal kami BI rate akan turun menjadi 7%. Kita harus tetap confident. Pelaku usaha tidak satupun memiliki keraguan untuk bergerak,” ujarnya kepada Bisnis, Kamis (14/1/2016).

Faktor terbesar yang meningkatkan kepercayaan diri pelaku usaha, lanjutnya, adalah sikap Presiden Joko Widodo yang tegas membangun iklim usaha dan investasi menjadi lebih baik.

Hal itu terlihat dari laju inflasi yang relatif rendah pada 2015 serta eksekusi APBN 2016 yang dilakukan sejak awal tahun.

Selain itu, penetapan target pajak yang terlampau tinggi yakni di atas Rp1.000 triliun juga menjadi sinyal positif bahwa pemerintah akan melakukan berbagai perbaikan untuk membiaya pembangunan infrastruktur.

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JAKARTA. Tingginya tekanan eksternal kembali menjadi penyebab tergerusnya nilai tukar rupiah. Di pasar spot Selasa (12/1), valuasi rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) tergelincir 0,34% ke Rp 13.909 dibanding hari sebelumnya.

Sebaliknya, kurs tengah rupiah di Bank Indonesia terangkat 0,71% ke Rp 13.835.

David Sumual, Ekonom Bank Central Asia, mengatakan, dollar tengah menguat. Penyokongnya, data labor market conditions index Desember 2015 naik dari 2,7% ke 2,9%.

“Dengan minimnya dukungan internal, gempuran USD ini tidak memiliki penahan,” kata David.

Apalagi ada ekspektasi The Fed menaikkan suku bunga di tahun 2016 sekitar 1,25%-1,50%. Di sisi lain, Yulia Safrina, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, belum melihat ada tanda-tanda China akan segera pulih dari gejolak ekonominya.

“Rupiah sebagai mata uang regional Asia, ikut terkena imbas negatif China,” kata Yulia. Rupiah diduga kembali melemah pada Rabu (13/1), jika surplus neraca perdagangan China Desember 2015 mengecil.

David menambahkan, pelaku pasar wait and see mengantisipasi rapat Dewan Gubernur BI yang berpeluang memutuskan penurunan suku bunga acuan atau BI rate.

David menduga, rupiah di 13.850–13.950. Prediksi Yulia, di 13.820–14.050.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/rupiah-mengantisipasi-bi-rate-turun
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

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Jokowi: Secepatnya Ubah “Dwelling Time”

Jakarta beritasatu-Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) memerintahkan Menko Kemaritiman Rizal Ramli secepatnya melakukan perubahan konkret untuk menekan dwelling time di Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, Jakarta.

Presiden Jokowi mengatakan, Menko Maritim harus terus melakukan pembenahan, mulai dari customs clearance, post customs clearance hingga pembenahan jalur dan pemeriksaan fisik.

“Saya ingin melihat perubahan yang konkret,” kata Presiden ‎saat memimpin rapat terbatas di Kantor Kepresidenan, Jakarta, Selasa (22/12).

Presiden Jokowi mengatakan, dwelling time harus ditekan agar ter‎cipta efisiensi dalam aktivitas bongkar barang di pelabuhan. Dia juga telah menugaskan jajaran Badan Pengawasan Keuangan dan Pembangunan (BPKP) untuk mengawasi serta mengaudit dwelling time di Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok.

“Saya juga perlu sampaikan, bahwa saya juga telah dan terus memonitor ini melalui BPKP, yang saya terjunkan ke lapangan dan hasilnya saya sudah mendapatkannya,” jelas dia.

Dia menyatakan, pada era kompetisi, saat ini bukan waktu yang tepat untuk bermain-main dengan yang namanya ‎efisiensi dan dwelling time.

Jika tidak serius, kata Jokowi, negeri ini akan ketinggalan.

“Karena apa pun kita telah memasuki era kompetisi, era persaingan antarnegara yang memerlukan kecepatan, memerlukan efisiensi untuk meningkatkan competitiveness kita, meningkatkan daya saing ekonomi kita. Begitu kita lambat, kita tidak efisien, kita akan ditinggal negara-negara lain,” jelas dia.

Presiden Jokowi juga menekankan tentang pentingnya mengatasi penumpukan kontainer yang melewati batas waktu, serta menangani akses menuju ke pelabuhan, baik lewat jalan raya maupun kereta api.

“Kita harapkan semuanya kita bisa atasi secepat-cepatnya,” kata Presiden Jokowi.

Investor Daily

Novy Lumanauw/PCN

Investor Daily

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Jakarta detik -Pemerintah pimpinan Joko Widodo (Jokowi) mengeluarkan paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid VIII. Ada 3 kebijakan pokok di dalamnya.

Sampai saat ini pemerintah sudah mengeluarkan total delapan paket kebijakan ekonomi. Paket-paket ini masih akan diterbitkan secara berkala oleh pemerintah.

Berikut ini selengkapnya seperti disajikan dalam infografis, Senin (21/12/2015).

(ang/wdl)

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reuters : Asia policymakers on Thursday applauded an historic turn in U.S. monetary policy, but analysts cautioned that the region’s economies faced vulnerabilities even as markets took the Federal Reserve rate hike in their stride.

The prospect of the first hike in U.S. rates in almost a decade had kept emerging markets on edge in the weeks leading up to the Fed’s decision, amid fears investors would redirect capital to higher-yielding U.S. debt in a fresh blow to their shaky economies.

However, an initial rally smoothed the brows of Asian central bankers who were the first to respond to the hike as U.S. policymakers sought to end an era of ultra-low rates that followed the global financial crisis.

“The Fed’s action brings an end to the lift-off uncertainty,” said Amando Tetangco, the governor of the Philippine central bank as he prepared to chair the monetary policy meeting later on Thursday.

The palpable relief among policymakers, and investors, comes as the global economy navigates through some rough terrain, with many export-reliant economies hit by cooling growth in China and deflationary pressures rising amid a collapse in commodities.

Add to that mix pedestrian growth in Japan and the euro zone, and it isn’t hard to see why many investors were nervous about the prospects of rising borrowing costs in the United States.

Indeed, the more composed initial markets reaction was aided by the fact the Fed had clearly flagged the move in advance, and also said the pace of tightening would be gradual – an important signal for many asset markets adjusting to less stimulus after years of flush Fed liquidity.

Indonesia was at the center of the “taper tantrum” in mid-2013, when the Fed talked about cutting its bond purchases, and this year its rupiah currency has been one of the region’s worst-performers.

But the rupiah rallied on Thursday, and other regional currencies rose initially before pulling back, with Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo welcoming the Fed’s decision “because there is certainty.”

“The effect is positive for us – the stock index rose, the rupiah strengthened, the financial market reacted positively,” he told reporters.

MORE EASING IN ASIA

Others, however, cautioned that higher interest rates would pose problems for economies that were too reliant on debt-fueled growth.

“The Fed’s hike will stiffen the headwinds for growth in Asia,” said Fred Neumann, HSBC’s chief Asia economist.

“Rising funding costs, especially in highly indebted economies, will slow the leverage cycle on which regional demand has increasingly come to depend,” he said.

And despite the Fed hike, policy in much of Asia is set to loosen further in a reflection of the fitful growth in the region.

Barclays economist Wai Ho Leong expects monetary easing in the first half of next year to be led by India, China and probably also Indonesia and South Korea.

No one is turning hawkish after the Fed has hiked,” he said.

“Most central banks are dovish. This is to counter the effects of the trade recession, which hits Asia disproportionately harder than any other region in the world.”

Hong Kong’s top central banker, who was obliged to immediately match the Fed’s hike under the Chinese-run city’s peg to the U.S. dollar, said he expected only a modest outflow of capital as a result of the Fed’s move.

China’s central bank also added to the reassuring mood, penciling in economic growth of 6.8 percent for next year in a working paper released on Wednesday, down only slightly from an expected 6.9 percent this year.

A senior researcher at an official Chinese think tank chimed in, saying the hike would not lead to major economic disruption.

Zeng Gang, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences banking research division, told the official People’s Daily paper that as the rate rise had been widely expected, it had been priced into markets, and that the People’s Bank of China would continue to lower reserve requirements next year to support a slowing economy.

Data showing drops in exports from Japan and Singapore, including big falls in shipments to China, sounded some of the few sour notes on Thursday, but Tokyo too voiced relief that emerging markets were taking the U.S. rate hike in their stride.

Indian policymakers, including Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, have been touting the South Asian nation as being more insulated to Fed-related volatility than other emerging markets due to its better economic fundamentals.

“I think we are relatively well cushioned,” Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said.

(Additional reporting by Nathaniel Taplin in Shanghai, Xiaoyi Shao in Beijing, Leika Kiharain Tokyo, Karen Lema in Manila, and Rajesh Kumar Singh and Suvashree Dey Choudhury in New Delhi. Writing by Mark Bendeich and Nicholas Owen; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Jakarta: Menteri Keuangan RI (Menkeu) Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan kondisi perekonomian dunia yang sulit rupanya masih akan berlanjut di 2016.

Hal tersebut diungkapkan Bambang  dalam acara Investor Award dengan tema “Penobatan Tokoh Finanaial Indonesia”, yang digelar di Energy Building, SCBD, Jakarta Selatan, Rabu (16/12/2015) malam.

Bambang mengatakan sebelum menghadiri acara ini, dirinya menerima perwakilan setelah bertemu dengan tim dari Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) yang sedang melakukan kajian terhadap negara-negara anggotanya baik dari sisi fiskal, moneter, maupun sektor keuangan.

Dari pertemuan tersebut, kata Bambang, IMF beranggapan tahun depan belum tentu merupakan tahun yang lebih mudah bagi perekonomian dunia yang tentunya mempengaruhi perekonomian domestik.

“Karena mereka menganggap tahun depan pertumbuhan berat atau tidak mudah, maka akan ada revisi angka pertumbuhan ke bawah,” kata Bambang.

Mantan Plt Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) ini memaparkan, bank sentral AS, the Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunganya 25 basis poin. Menurut dia, kenaikan tersebut tentu sedikit banyak memberikan gejolak pada pasar surat utang.

Seperti halnya pada tahun 2013 lalu, ketika ada temper tantrum, kala itu ketika bos the Fed masih dijabat oleh Ben Bernanke yang memberi sinyal suku bunga harus dinaikkan membuat pasar keuangan bergejolak.

“Itu gejolaknya luar biasa, depresiasi nilai tukar paling lemah di 2013, dari Rp8.000 per USD menjadi Rp12.000 per USD waktu tahun,” ujar Bambang.

Belum lagi pelemahan ekonomi Tiongkok yang masih akan terjadi dan dampaknya ke Indonesia lebih riil. Namun demikian, meski berat, Pemerintah mencoba menaruh optimisme terlebih dahulu dengan memasang asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi di angka 5,3 persen.

“Dengan upaya kita tahun depan akan menggenjot government spending agar lebih baik lagi,” jelas dia.

http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/12/17/461135/menkeu-2016-masih-jadi-tahun-yang-berat-untuk-ekonomi
Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM

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ID: Menkeu mengungkapkan pula bahwa syarat untuk mewujudkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi adalah mengatasi dua batu sandungan besar yang selama ini menghambat kemajuan. Keduanya adalah sulitnya melacak data pajak serta minimnya cadangan devisa karena hanya 11% devisa ekspor yang masuk ke sistem perbankan.

 

Menkeu menyatakan, pemerintah selama ini sulit memenuhi target penerimaan pajak karena minimnya data wajib pajak (WP), di samping kepatuhan mereka rendah. Kendala utama adalah masalah kerahasiaan bank yang tidak bisa ditembus aparat pajak. Padahal, kekayaan seseorang atau perusahaan tercermin pada rekening perbankan.

 

“Untuk minta data rekening harus ada alasan pemeriksaaan, harus ada izin menteri keuangan, juga OJK. Prosedurnya panjang. Nanti begitu izin pemeriksaan rekening bank keluar, tahu-tahu rekening mereka sudah kosong. Kadang ada oknum bank yang membocorkan,” kata Bambang.

 

Hal itu berbeda dengan institusi pajak AS, yakni IRS (Internal Revenue Services), yang dapat langsung memeriksa rekening bank wajib pajak tanpa harus meminta izin siapa pun. “Selama ini orang Ditjen Pajak seperti meraba-raba dalam gelap. Apalagi banyak di antara mereka yang tidak patuh, sehingga penerimaan tidak optimal dan tax ratio kita tertinggal dibanding Negara tetangga,” kata Menkeu.

 

Sementara itu, masalah kedua adalah cadangan devisa yang stagnan. Saat ini, hanya 11% cadangan devisa hasil ekspor yang masuk sistem perbankan. Menkeu menegaskan, semestinya cadangan devisa RI sangat mencukupi, karena pernah mengalami berbagai periode masa kejayaan ekspor, mulai bonanza minyak, booming ekspor tekstil, hingga kejayaan ekspor komoditas. “Tapi dari dulu cadangan devisa kita cuma segitu-segitu saja,” ujarnya.

 

Menkeu menegaskan, hal itu terjadi karena UU Lalu Lintas Devisa yang sangat liberal sehingga devisa bebas keluar masuk. Dia mencontohkan kebijakan negara tetangga, seperti Malaysia yang mewajibkan devisa ekspor untuk di-hold enam bulang di bank dan Thailand yang mewajibkan seluruh devisa ekspor dikonversi ke baht.

 

Menkeu menyebut dua masalah fundamental itu sebagai penyebab ekonomi RI tidak bisa tumbuh tinggi, minimal 7%. “Ada yang bilang ekonomi RI bisa tumbuh minimal 7% kalau dua masalah fundamental itu dibenahi,” kata dia. (bersambung)

 

Baca selanjutnya di

http://id.beritasatu.com/macroeconomics/ada-2-faktor-eksternal-bayangi-ekonomi-ri/135551

bird

Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Tantangan besar masih akan membayangi perekonomian Indonesia hingga akhir tahun. Harga komoditas yang rendah merupakan salah satu tantangan utama. Selain itu dampak kenaikan suku bunga AS juga akan ikut mempengaruhi kestabilan ekonomi.

Bahkan, hal ini akan terus berlangsung hingga tahun depan. “Ekonomi Indonesia masih menghadapi tantangan. Market mengantisipasi kemungkinan kenaikan Fed Fund rate, mungkin hari ini atau besok,” ujar Kepala Perwakilan Bank Dunia untuk Indonesia Rodrigo Chaves dalam Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), di Jakarta, Selasa (15/12/2015).
Menurutnya perekonomian Indonesia akan terus berfluktuasi menjelang kenaikan suku bunga AS. Hal ini yang menjadi tantangan bagi perekonomian nasional.

BACA JUGA

Namun demikian, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang baik masih akan mampu diwujudkan Indoneaia dengan dorongan komitmen kebijakan infrastruktur dari pemerintah.

“Pemerintah harus komitmen terhadap pembangunan infrastruktur. Ekonomi Indonesia masih akan volatile di 2016. Tapi masih ada potensi untuk tumbuh,” ujar dia.

Ndiame Diop, Ekonom Utama Bank Dunia,  membenarkan jika di tahun depan tantangan perekonomian Indonesia masih akan berlanjut.

Pemerintah menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tahun depan mencapai 5,3 persen, lebih tinggi dari target pertumbuhan di 2015 yang sebesar 5  persen. Target 5,3 tersebut tertuang dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016.(Vna/Nrm)

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Jakarta Globe. Indonesia is not experiencing an economic crisis, Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Luhut Panjaitan said on Monday, citing rising demand in a number of key sectors that had previously seen a slowdown.

Luhut said that cement production, as well as demand for motorcycles and steel, was back to normal.

“I’ve just received guests from REI [property group Real Estate Indonesia], and they told me that things are getting better now. Next year in the second quarter, property demand will increase again,” the coordinating minister said.

As reported by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s economy grew 4.73 percent in the third quarter of this year, a slight increase compared with the 4.67 percent growth in the second quarter.

However, growth in the third quarter is still lower than the 5.01 percent recorded in the same period of 2014.

rose KECIL

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Ekonom memaparkan perbedaan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia pada 2015 dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.

Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Aviliani mengatakan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia 2014 dan 2015 berbeda dengan kondisi ekonomi Tanah Air di rentang 2009–2013.

Pertama, harga komoditas. Saat ini harga komoditas telah merosot sehingga berdampak pada perekonomian di sejumlah daerah yang masih bergantung pada komoditas.

“Dulu tinggi sekarang harga komoditas rendah sehingga kita lihat ekonomi di Sumatera, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi pertumbuhan ekonomi dulu tinggi diatas nasional, sekarang hanya 2% hingga 3%,” ujarnya, Minggu (22/11/2015).

Aviliani memperkirakan tahun depan harga komoditas ini belum tentu dapat segera membaik sehingga pemerintah harus memiliki fokus pada daerah yang sangat bergantung dengan komoditas. Pasalnya, apabila pemerintah tidak segera bertindak maka akan berdampak pada angka pengangguran yang meningkat.

“Pemerintah harus punya concern pada daerah yang sangat tergantung dengan komoditas dan belum beralih bekerja yang lain. Kalau tidak pengguran terjadi pada provinsi yang bergantung komoditas. Itu bedanya,” kata Aviliani.

Harga komoditas yang merosot ini berdampak pada ekspor Indonesia yang juga turut menurun. Dulu, ekspor Indonesia mengalami peningkatan karena harga komoditas bukan dari sisi volume.

“Sekarang ekspor kita secara volume enggak turun banget tapi karena harga komoditas turun signifikan, maka secara signifikan pula ekspornya rendah,” ucapnya.

Sementara itu, untuk impor dikatakan menurun tetapi bila dilihat dari komposisinya yakni 75% merupakan impor bahan baku. Impor bahan baku ini mengalami peningkatan dari sebelumnya 70% di rentang 2009-2013.

Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa munculnya ekspansi dan pabrik baru yang menyebabkan ketergantungan impor menjadi tinggi. “Kalau impornya berkurang bagus enggak? Ya enggak bagus. Kenapa? Karena banyak pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) karena produksi berkurang,” tutur Aviliani

Kedua, yakni terkait kondisi nilai tukar rupiah. Saat ini nilai tukar rupiah yang melemah terhadap dolar AS senilai Rp13.500 hingga Rp13.800 ini berbeda pada saat dulu di rentang 2009 hingga 2013.

Pasalnya, pada saat itu Amerika melakukan kebijakan quantitative easing atau cetak uang sehingga mata uang di seluruh dunia terutama negara emerging market mengalami penguatan. “Saat Amerika sudah tidak cetak uang lagi, dana masuk ke Indonesia mulai menurun. Itulah mengapa rupiah melemah,” ujarnya

Kendati rupiah melemah, saat ini dana portofolio Indonesia masih tiga kali lipat dari foreign direct investment (FDI). Hal itu membuktikan Indonesia sangat mengandalkan dana jangka pendek. Apabila Indonesia tetap mengandalkan dana jangka pendek ini, maka sangat berat untuk menjaga nilai tukar dan volatilitas nilai tukar pun akan tetap tinggi.

Selain itu, aliran dana masuk atau capital inflow yang menurun dibandingkan tahun-tahun sebelumnya. “Indonesia masih mengandalkan dana jangka pendek sehingga volatilitas masih akan sangat tinggi,” kata Aviliani.

sindonews: Di  era globalisasi seperti saat ini, banyak gangguan  maupun gejolak yang sewaktu-waktu dapat membuat ekonomi negara keluar dari jalur. Untuk itu, perlu adanya suatu system pertahanan yang mempunyai mekanisme peredam dampak krisis yang built in pada dirinya.

Hal tersebut diungkapkan oleh mantan Wakil Presiden Boediono, dalam sambutannya pada Forum Studi dan Diskusi Ekonomi 2015 di Auditorium Magister Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis UGM, kemarin. “Ada tiga macam gangguan utama yang pernah menghadang ekonomi kita,” katanya.

Diantaranya, yang pertama merupakan gangguan dari gejolak harga komoditi-komoditi ekspor dan impor. Pada era 1980an silam, ekspor utama Indonesia merupakan minyak bumi. Harganya mengalami anjlok secara terus-menerus dengan konsekuensi serius pada Anggaran Pendapatan Belanja Daerah (APBN) dan neraca perdagangan.

Kemudian pada dasawarsa 2000an sampai beberapa tahun lalu, mengalami hal yang kebalikannya. Yaitu harga minyak bumi terus-menerus meningkat. Tapi sayangnya pada masa itu sudah menjadi pengimpor minyak.

“Beberapa tahun ini, kita mengalami perlemahan berkepanjangan harga komoditi ekspor utama kita. Seperti batubara, mineral, kelapa sawit, dan karet. Kelompok gangguan ini kita sebut gejolak terms of trade, dengan berbagai konsekuensinya pada sektor riil dan keuangan dalam negeri,” ujarnya.

Kemudian gangguan yang kedua bersumber dari gejolak aliran modal. Di era globalisasi arus uang glonal yang jumlahnya triliunan dolar bisa berbalik arah dengan cepat dan imbasnya juga pada kurs. Likuiditas bank dan neraca modal atau capital account.

Pada putaran berikutnya, gejolak sektor keuangan ini kemudian merambat ke sektor riil berupa Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK), perusahaan tutup dan penurunan pertumbuhan.

“Kita mengalami sewaktu krisis keuangan Asia pada 1997-1998. Krisis yang meninggalkan jejak mendalam pada ekonomi kita. Kita mengalami hal yang sama pada masa krisis global tahun 2008-2009. Tetapi kali ini dengan kerusakan yang relative lebih ringan, berkat kesiapan kita yang lebih baik,” katanya.

Pada gangguan kelompok ketiga, lanjut dia, yang terkait dengan alam. Seperti El Nino yang menyebabkan kemarau berkepanjangan pada 1997-1998, tsunami 2004 dan bencana alam lainnya. “Nampaknya juga tahun ini (El Nino),” tuturnya.

Risiko gangguan seperti ini, suka atau tidak suka, akan selalu mengancam. Dari ketiga gejolak tersebut, pembalikan arus dana mempunyai dampak yang paling eksplosif di sektor keuangan. Sedangkan perubahan harga ekspor dan impor kurang eksplosif , tapi langsung masuk ke sektor riil dan bisa berlangsung lebih lama.

“Sementara itu, gangguan alam biasanya tidak memicu krisis, tapi dapat memperburuk keadaan. Jadwal kedatangan dari masing-masing gangguan, sulit diterka. Tetapi tentunya dampaknya akan lebih terasa berat apabila lebih dari satu macam gangguan terjadi secara bersamaan,” jelasnya.

Untuk itulah, lanjutnya, perlu adanya pembentukan system pertahanan yang lebih efektif. Mempunyai mekanisme peredam dari dampak krisis tersebut. Artinya, pada tataran yang paling mendasar, struktur ekonomi harus dibangun sedemikian rupa agar tidak rentan terhadap gangguan tersebut.

“Kalau saya boleh mengibaratkan perekonomian sebagai sebuah kapal, konstruksi kapal itu harus tidak mudah oleng, tahan terpaan ombak, tidak mudah bocor, dan sebagainya,” katanya.

Untuk mengemudikan perekonomian dalam kondisi gangguan yang sewaktu-waktu bisa mengancam, harus perlu adanya satu prinsip kehati-hatian dan kuat untuk mengurangi risikonya. Dari kedua prinsip tersebut,  perlu adanya suatu design lini pertahanan.

Yaitu, lini pertahanan yang mengandalkan pada struktur ekonomi tahan krisis. Untuk menghindari terbenturnya struktur ekonomi yang rawan atau memperparah dampak guncangan.

“Sebagai contoh ketergantungan pada ekspor sejumlah kecil komoditi dan ketergantungan terlalu besar pada impor komodisi yang bersifat strategis. Misal , pangan dan energi. Negara seperti itu akan rawan terhadap gejolak terms of trade,” katanya.

Garis pertahanan kedua, ada pada tataran kebijakan. Kuncinya menanamkan kultur kehati-hatian di lembaga-lembaga utama pengelola ekonomi makro dan moneter.

“Memegang prinsip kehati-hatian harus sudah menjadi bagian dari insting para pembuat kebijakan,” katanya.

Untuk garis pertahanan ketiga, dilaksanakan pada saat-saat krisis. Ketika itulah diperlukan sebuah aturan yang jelas pada pihak-pihak yang harus menangani krisis untuk bertindak, secara sendiri-sendiri atau bersama.

“Lini pertahanan ketiga sangat penting karena merupakan lini terakhir untuk mengatasi krisis. Lini ini terdiri dari sebuah protocol yang harus dapat menjadi landasan bagi para pengambil kebijakan untuk bergerak cepat dan tepat pada saat krisis,” ucapnya.

Mengenai penerapan ekonomi Islam, menurutnya memang bagus. Akan tetapi tetap harus dilakukan secara bertahap bila akan dijalankan. “Ekonomi Islam betul bagus, tapi tidak bisa diterapkan begitu saja. Harus berjalan secara bertahap, bisa dijalankan nantinya,” jelasnya.

Sementara, Ketua Dewan Komisioner Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) Muliaman D Hadad, mengatakan sistem ekonomi berjalan terus menuju ke arah yang diharapkan baik. Bukan pada soal agama, tapi produk yang dihasilkan.

“Bagaimana membangun ekonomi yang siapapun bisa masuk, maka pemerintah menerapkan perbankan syariah. Penyempurnaan itu berjalan terus,” katanya.

Penyempurnaan dari sistem ekonomi Islam itu perlu dikembangkan, supaya menjawab banyak persoalan. Tidak menutup kemungkinan, penerapan ekonomi Islam bisa dilakukan pemerintah. “Itu bagian dari penyempurnaan,” ucapnya.
(dol)

source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1063537/34/perlu-ada-ketahanan-sistem-untuk-ekonomi-negara-1448170832

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JAKARTA-Deputi Gubernur Senior Bank Indonesia Mirza Adityaswara menilai jika suku bunga The Federal Reserve AS naik pada Desember 2015 ketidakpastian ekonomi akan berakhir dan menuntaskan sebagian besar efek negatif eksternal terhadap ekonomi Indonesia.

“Ketika sudah naik Desember 2015 nanti, maka sudah lewat ketidakpastian itu. Lalu apakah orang menunggu kenaikan suku bunga kedua. Tren kenaikan suku bunga sekarang sudah berbeda,” ujarnya dalam paparan ekonomi dan pasar modal 2016 yang digelar Aberdeen Asset Management di Jakarta, Kamis.

“Kenaikan suku bunga yang pertama sangat penting, yang kedua mungkin saja penting, dan yang ketiga sama sekali tidak penting,” tambahnya.

Mirza memahami saat ini pelaku pasar sangat menanti kepastian suku bunga The Fed pada Desember 2015 sehingga tekanan di pasar finansial masih membayangi.

Menurt dia, kenaikan suku bunga The Fed setelah penaikan perdana akan bertahap dan sangat perlahan. Dengan begitu imbasnya bagi pasar finansial negara “emerging markets” tidak besar.

“Jadi bagi saya ketidakpastiannya sudah lewat (setelah kenaikan suku bunga pertama). Nah silahkan terjemahkan sediri jika ketidakpastian sudah lewat itu akan seperti apa perekonomian,” ujarnya.

Menurut dia, ketidakpastian dari kenaikan bunga The Fed menjadi sumber terbesar tekanan bagi perekonomian negara berkembang saat ini.

Namun, selain dari The Fed, kata dia, tekanan lain juga masih menghadang dari lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok, dimana negara Tirai Bambu sedang mengahdap fase normal baru setelah pertumbuhan dua digit, menjadi satu digit.

Mirza mengatakan beberapa upaya Tiongkok untuk menuju stabilisasi ekonomi sudah mulai terasa. Stimulus yang diberikan oleh pemerintah dan Bank Sentral Tiongkok mulai membuahkan hasil.

“Sebelum turunkan suku bunga, Tiongkok juga beberapa kali melonggarkan Giro Wajib Minimum. Dampak dari itu yang perlu kita tunggu,” kata dia.

Dari sisi domestik, Mirza meyakini, paket kebijakan pemerintah akan signifikan memperbaiki struktural ekonomi Indonesia.

Dia menyambut baik kebijakan deregulasi pemerintah untuk industri dan investasi. Selain itu, dia juga meyakini, pengembangan pariwisata dengan kebijakan bebas visa bagi 90 negara akan mendongkrak jumlah cadangan devisa.

“Tinggal kita pantau implementasinya, apakah sudah ada peraturan turunan untuk penerapannya,” ujarnya.

Rektor Universitas Paramadina, Firmanzah melontarkan pendapat berbeda. Dia menilai kenaikan suku bunga The Fed mendatang belum tentu mengakhiri ketidakpastian eksternal bagi perekonomian Indonesia.

“Ada yang coba petakan dampak kenaikan Fed rate. Yang menarik, pada April-Agustus 1980, AS menaikkan suku bunganya, dan 1981 AS resesi ekonomi. Maka ketika the Fed itu menaikkan suku bunga, apakah sumber ketidakpastian akan hilang atau muncul yang baru? Itu belum pasti,” kata Firmanzah.

Berbagai analis memperkirakan akan terdapat periode penyesuaian (adjustment) selama 6 bulan pasca kenaikan Fed rate oleh banyak negara. kata dia.(ant/hrb)

http://id.beritasatu.com/moneyandbanking/fed-naik-ketidakpastian-ekonomi-berakhir/133028
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

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JAKARTA ID – Pemerintah melalui Kementerian Perdagangan tengah gencar menyosialisasikan aturan mengenai logo Standar Nasional Indonesia (SNI) wajib pada 118 barang yang diperdagangkan.

Salah satu dari barang yang diwajibkan menggunakan logo SNI adalah mainan anak. Sayangnya, pembuatan logo mainan anak masih dinilai mahal. Sehingga beberapa pemasok dan produsen tidak mendaftarkan barangnya untuk mendapatkan sertifikat SNI.

Ketua Umum Asosiasi Mainan Indonesia Sutjiadi Lukas mengatakan, produsen dan pemasok mainan acap kali mengeluhkan mahalnya pendaftaran SNI untuk satu barang.

“Keluhannya setiap pengurusan SNI itu karena biaya cukup besar,” kata dia kepada Okezone, Selasa (16/11/2015).

Dia menyebutkan, biayanya sekira 15 sampai 20 persen dari cost. Dengan begitu, tidak sedikit produsen memilih ‘nakal’ dan nekat menjual mainan tanpa logo SNI.

Beban ini tidak hanya dirasakan pemasok dan produsen. Karena tingginya harga pendaftaran, harga jual ke pengecer pun ikut tinggi. Imbasnya pengecer harus memasang harga tinggi pada mainan yang dijual.

Sudah tentu, kata dia, mempengaruhi pendapatan penjual. Masyarakat jadi ogah membeli mainan yang dipatok dengan harga tinggi.

“Di pengecer tentu kan harga naik tinggi, daya beli rendah, itu dampaknya ke pedagang, daya beli masyarakat jadi rendah,” tukasnya.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/16/320/1250453/curhatan-importir-mainan-urus-sni-mahal-banget
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – Data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menunjukkan Pulau Jawa dan Pulau Sumatera merupakan kelompok yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).

Deputi Bidang Neraca dan Analisis Statistik BPS, Suharyanto mengatakan, Provinsi Pulau Jawa memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap Produk Domestic Bruto (PDB) sebesar 58,27 persen, diikuti Pulau Sumatera sebesar 22,37 persen dan Pulau Kalimantan 7,99 persen.

Perekonomian Indonesia yang diukur berdasarkan besaran PDB kuartal III 2015 mencapai Rp 2.982,6 triliun dan atas harga konstan 2010 mencapai Rp 2.311,2 triliun.

Dari sisi produksi, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia kuartal III 2015 sebesar 4,73 persen didorong oleh hampir semua lapangan usaha.

“Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai Informasi dan Komunikasi yang tumbuh 10,83 persen,” katanya.

Sedangkan sisi pengeluaran pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai oleh Komponen Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah sebesar 6,56 persen diikuti oleh Komponen Pengeluaran Konsumsi Lembaga Non Profit yang Melayani Rumah Tangga (LNPRT) dan Komponen Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga.

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Jakarta infobank –PT Jasa Marga Tbk, mulai menaikkan tarif layanan jalan tol di 15 ruas. Kenaikan tarif masuk tol tersebut bervariasi mulai dari Rp500 per ruas hingga Rp2.500. Pasalnya, penyesuaian tarif tol ini rutin dilakukan setiap dua tahun sekali.

Adanya kenaikan tarif tol tersebut, dikhawatirkan akan ikut menyumbang inflasi hingga akhir tahun ini yang ditargetkan 4%plus minus 1%. Namun, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menegaskan, bahwa kenaikan tarif tol ini tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap inflasi. “Naiknya tarif tol ini saya rasa gak terlalu signifikan terpengaruhi. Tarif tolkan naiknya gak sampai 100% kan yaa. Jadi gak terlalu berpengaruh signifikan,” ujar Deputi Bidang Statistik Distribusi dan Jasa BPS, Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, di Jakarta, Senin, 2 November 2015.

Kontribusi tarif jalan tol terhadap inflasi sendiri sangatlah kecil yakni hanya 0,01%. Lain halnya jika yang mengalami kenaikan adalah, harga bahan makanan, Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL), elpiji, dan bahan bakar minyak (BBM) yang dampaknya terhadap tingkat inflasi cukup besar.

Kenaikan tarif tol yang mulai berlaku 1 November 2015 berdasarkan surat putusan Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat (PUPR) No.507/KPTS/M/2015 tentang penyesuaian tarif. Dalam surat putusan tersebut kenaikan tarif tol diberlakukan pada 15 ruas tol.  Hal ini sesuai dengan aturan dalam penyesuaian tarif tol yang diatur dalam Pasal 48 ayat (3) Undang-Undang No.38/2004 tentang jalan dan Pasal 68 ayait 1 mengenai peraturan pemerintah No.15/2005 tentang jalan tol bahwa evaluasi dan penyesuaian tarif tol dilakukan setiap 2 tahun sekali oleh BPJT berdasarkan tarif yang sesuai dengan pengaruh inflasi.

Berikut 15 ruas tol di Indonesia yang tarifnya mengalami kenaikan:
1. Tol Jakarta-Bogor-Ciawi
2. Tol Jakarta-Tangerang
3. Jalan Tol Dalam Kota Jakarta
4. Tol Lingkar Luar Jakarta
5. Tol Padalarang-Cileunyi
6. Tol Semarang Seksi ABC
7. Surabaya-Gempol
8. Palimanan-Plumbon-Kanci
9. Cipularang
10. Belawan-Medan-Tanjung Morawa
11. Serpong-Pondok Aren
12. Ujung Pandang tahap 1 dan tahap 2
13. Pondok Aren-Ulujami
14. Tol Bali Mandara
15. Tangerang-Merak (*) Rezkiana Nisaputra

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JAKARTA – Pemerintah telah mengeluarkan dua paket kebijakan ekonomipada September lalu dan selanjutan segera mengeluarkan paket kebijakan ekonomi tahap III.

Menteri Keuangan Bambang PS Brodjonegoro mengatakan paket ke III arahnya akan lebih menukik targetnya dibandingkan paket pertama dan kedua. “Intinya paket ini akan lebih menukik lebih jelas targetnya,”tutur Bambang di Hotel Shangrila, Jakarta, Senin (5/10/2015).

Menurutnya, paket ke III, pertama ditujukan untuk menjaga kelangsungan usaha perusahaan, mengingat terpengaruh kondisi nilai tukar, kemudian penurunan produksi akibat daya beli menurun.

“Sisi pertama dalam paket kebijakan kita lakukan evaluasi harga energi supaya tidak memberatkan. Harga energi di semua jenis dalam tren turun, namun berapa persis diturunkannya nanti diumumkan,” tuturnya.

Menurut Bambang, paket kebijakan tahap III ditujukan agar perusahaan tidak melakukan Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK) pada karyawannya. Lewat Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia, Menteri Keuangan akan memberikan kredit usaha bagi UKM padat karya.

“Memberikan dukungan bagi UKM yang terancam usahanya, terganggu kondisinya sekarang. Kredit ini utamanya pada UKM padat karya,”tuturnya.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/10/05/20/1226371/menkeu-sebut-paket-kebijakan-tahap-iii-lebih-menukik
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

JAKARTA – Di tengah perlambatan ekonomi global, Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) menyakini pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada semester II-2015 meningkat, jika dibandingkan semester I-2015. Hal ini disampaikan Jokowi di PT Adis Dimension Foodwater.

“Di semester II ini, semoga pertumbuhan ekonomi kita naik. Negara lain anjloknya lebih dari 1,5-2 persen. Kita turunnya 0,3 persen,” kata Jokowi, Jakarta, Senin (5/10/2015).

Jokowi mendapatkan laporan dua hari lalu mengenai kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Hal ini dikarenakan belanja APBN seperti APBD provinsi, kabupaten/kota sudah terserap, bahkan laporan terakhir serapan APBN mencapai 64 persen. Diperkirakan, akhir tahun serapan anggaran mencapai 92 persen.

“Sehingga kita harapkan itu berdampak kepada ekonomi kita. Optimisme itu yang ingin kita sampaikan, jangan sampai situasi ekonomi melambat justru pesimis. Yang harus kita tumbuhkan itu optimisme,” tegas Jokowi.

Menurut Jokowi, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia harus naik. Diharapkan, tahun depan pun pertumbuhan ekonomi akan mulai merangkak naik step by step sesuai target yang ditentukan yakni tumbuh sebesar 7 persen.

“Negara lain boleh turun (ekonominya), tapi negara kita naik pertumbuhannya,” tukasnya.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/10/05/20/1226360/jokowi-ekonomi-negara-lain-anjlok-ri-harus-naik
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

JAKARTA – Mantan Menteri Keuangan era Presdien Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Chatib Basri mengatakan pemerintah harus berpikir realistis tanpa ekspektasi target tinggi. Dengan demikian, maka kepastian akan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mampu dicapai.

Menurutnya, ekspektasi pemerintah akan pertumbuhan yang ditargetkan bertumbuh tinggi tahun ini membuat kepercayaan seluruh stakeholder mulai dari masyarakat, pengusaha, investor dan lainya menjadi berkurang.

“Kalau ditargetkan tinggi-tinggi target pertumbuhan akan gagal. Dunia juga enggak salah kan, jika pertumbuhan memang benar-benar 4,5 persen atau 4,7 persen. Growth kita 4,5-4,7 persen. Ekspektasi tinggi-tinggi kalau tidak tercapai kan sulit nantinya,” ujar Chatib dalam Seminar Nasional “Quo Vadis Ekoomi Indonesia”, di Hotel Shangrila, Jakarta, Senin (5/10/2015).

Dia mengatakan, selama 10 tahun membantu di pemerintahan, Chatib tidak mempercayai adanya perubahan drastis. Artinya, cukupkan yang bagus-bagus dan jangan berpikir semua bisa terwujud. “Karena semuanya kan belum pasti. Jadi berpikir saja yang realistis, tidak ada perubahan yang langsung cepat,” tuturnya.

Selain itu, dia juga mengatakan seluruh stakeholder jangan pernah menganggap kondisi ekonomi saat ini lebih jelek dibandingkan kondisi zaman-zaman Presiden siapa pun. “Istilah “Enak Jaman Ku Toh”, semua itu enggak ada, berpikirlah yang ada saat ini, jangan melihat ke belakang,” tuturnya.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/10/05/20/1226361/mantan-menkeu-minta-pemerintah-realistis
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

Di samping itu, Sunarsip menyebut pemerintah dan BI juga mesti membuat kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengembalikan atau mempertahankan daya beli masyarakat di tengah membesarnya gelombang PHK.

 

“Jadi, intinya, pemerintah saat ini ditantang untuk mengembalikan trust dan kredibilitasnya kepada pasar dalam jangka pendek, di antaranya pada tiga poin itu. Jika pemerintah mampu melakukannya dalam jangka pendek, akan bagus ke rupiah. Kalau tidak, rupiah akan sulit menguat dalam jangka pendek, walaupun ada paket-paket kebijakan lanjutan. Tapi, itu baru akan berdampak dalam jangka menengah dan panjang,” kata dia.

 

Terkait rencana pemerintah dan OJK mengeluarkan paket kebijakan lanjutan, Sunarsip mengatakan hal itu memang perlu terus dilakukan untuk mengembalikan trust dan pembenahan ekonomi nasional, walaupun dampak positifnya kemungkinan baru akan dirasakan dalam jangka panjang.

 

Dia sudah mendengar, Oktober ini, pemerintah tengah mempertimbangkan penurunan haga BBM bersubsidi untuk menaikkkan daya beli masyarakat. Namun, hal itu perlu dilakukan hati-hati dan jangan sampai merugikan Pertamina, yang selama ini telah mengeluh masih merugi karena harus menjual BBM bersubsidi dari pemerintah.

 

Sementara itu, dia menilai penurunan harga BBM bersubsidi bisa berdampak negatif terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan, yang mulai membaik. Rencana penurunan harga BBM bersubsidi bisa menjadi beban pemerintah karena harus membayar lebih mahal minyak yang diimpor dibandingkan menjualnya lebih murah ke masyarakat.

 

Menurut dia, rencana OJK mengeluarkan kebijakan relaksasi pembiayaan untuk UMKM, di antaranya tentang modal ventura untuk para pengusaha kecil dan menengah yang belum tersentuh kredit perbankan (bankable) tapi sangat potensial, sangat bagus. Kebijakan ini sudah lama menjadi wacana, tapi belum pernah direalisasikan, serta belum terlalu dikenal di mata investor.

 

“Dampaknya akan lebih bagus ke sektor UMKM. Kalau ke rupiah belum akan direspons baik dalam jangka pendek. Apalagi, ventura hal baru dan belum terlalu dikenal pasar,” kata Sunarsip. (bersambung)

 

http://id.beritasatu.com/moneyandbanking/pemerintah-bi-harus-kembalikan-daya-beli-masyarakat/128980
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

ID_Chief Economist The Indonesia Economic Intelligence Sunarsip berpendapat, paket kebijakan I, II, dan seterusnya memang perlu terus dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah, otoritas moneter Bank Indonesia, dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) untuk mengembalikan kepercayaan pasar dan investor, baik untuk jangka pendek maupun panjang.

 

Jika hal itu terus dilakukan dan mampu meng-counter isu global, terutama rencana kenaikan Fed Fund rate (FFR), rupiah berpeluang kembali menguat atau paling tidak, tingkat atau persentase pelemahannya bisa ditahan lebih baik.

 

Dia memperkirakan rupiah masih akan berpeluang melemah dan fluktuasi hingga akhir tahun ini karena masih dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan The Fed yang belum jelas. Bulan lalu, The Fed telah memutuskan tidak menaikkan FFR.

 

“Kalau perkiraan saya, rupiah bisa menuju 15.000 hingga akhir tahun. Namun, jika pemerintah dan otoritas moneter dan keuangan mampu mengembalikan trust pasar dan investor, serta melawan sentimen buruk global, bukan tak mungkin rupiah bisa kembali bergerak ke level Rp 14.000 pada akhir tahun,” ujar Sunarsip, Sabtu (3/10).

 

Dia menilai paket kebijakan yang telah dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah dengan memberikan keringanan pajak surat deposito Bank Indonesia (SDBI) untuk valas dan juga kebijakan BI di antaranya mulai mengintervensi pasar valas spot dan forward, serta diterbitkannya Surat Berharga Bank Indonesia (SBBI) valas sebenarnya sudah cukup bagus untuk mengembalikan kepercayaan pasar.

 

“Kebijakan tersebut pada intinya akan mempermudah pencarian valas di pasar keuangan dalam negeri. Selain itu, pemerintah dan otoritas keuangan dan moneter juga mendorong agar valas sulit dibawa ke luar negeri. Namun, kebijakan itu lebih bersifat struktural dan dampaknya memerlukan waktu,” ucap dia.

 

Sunarsip mengingatkan pemerintah, serta BI dan OJK agar membuat kebijakan jangka pendek, di antaranya dengan mempermudah penyediaan valas untuk pembayaran utang luar negeri, terutama bagi sektor swasta. Selama ini, salah satu penyebab pelemahan rupiah karena banyaknya swasta yang berburu dolar AS untuk membayar utang.

 

Dia juga menyarankan pemerintah perlu menunjukkan kemampuannya dalam menangani sektor riil, terutama terkait mulai membesarnya gelombang pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) di Tanah Air. “Jadi, pemerintah harus bisa menunjukkan kemampuannya dalam mengatasi PHK dalam jangka pendek, sehingga pasar kembali percaya,” ujar dia. (bersambung)

 

http://id.beritasatu.com/moneyandbanking/kembalikan-kepercayaan-pasar/128981
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

JAKARTA – Melemahnya data-data ekonomi di Amerika Serikat (AS) nampaknya memberikan dampak negatif pada nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap beberapa mata uang dunia. Salah satu mata uang yang ikut menguat adalah Rupiah.

Analisis Senior OCBC Securities, Budi Wibowo, mengatakan data ekonomi Amerika yang jelek, membuat the Fed tidak akan berani menaikkan suku bunga. Meski demikian, dia melihat Rupiah akan kembali tertekan jika the Fed telah bereaksi.

“Jika the Fed naikkan suku bunga, Rupiah masih akan tertekan. Data ekonomi Amerika jelek, jadi berpotensi ditunda tahun depan, sekira Januari-Febuari,” kata dia di iBCM, Jakarta, Senin (5/10/2015).

Melansir yahoofinance, Rupiah berhasil menguat 133 poin atau 0,9 persen ke Rp14.602 per USD. Adapun pergerakan Rupiah pagi ini berada di kisaran Rp14.527-R[14.740 per USD.

Sementara di pasar spot Asia, berdasarkan data Bloomberg Dollar Index, Rupiah pada perdagangan non-delivery forward menguat 55 poin atau 0,3 persen ke Rp14.590 per USD. Bloomberg mencatat, Rupiah diperdagangkan di kisaran Rp14.583-Rp14.651 per USD.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/10/05/278/1226109/rupiah-pagi-ini-kembali-hajar-dolar-as

Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

Sabtu, 3 Oktober 2015 – 14:55 wib

Intervensi BI Dianggap Percuma oleh Rizal Ramli

JAKARTA – Belakangan ini nilai tukar Rupiah masih mengalami tekanan terhadap dolar AS. Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat lalu, Rupiah bertahan di level Rp14.600-an per USD.Menteri Koordinator Bidang Maritim Rizal Ramli menilai, kondisi ini bisa dimanfaatkan untuk menggebrak ekspor Indonesia. Salah satu caranya, Indonesia membuat kredit ekspor.

“Dari pada BI setiap hari intervensi USD250 juta, itu pun jebol,” kata Rizal di Pasaraya Blok M, Sabtu (3/10/2015.

Rizal bilang, jika uang tersebut dimanfaatkan untuk memberikan kredit ekspor, banyak pengusaha yang akan terbantu. Apalagi saat ini pabrik di Indonesia kelebihan produksi lantaran penjualan ritel menurun 30 persen.

“Pabrik kita kelebihan produksi, Rupiah lemah, itu dua faktor yang bisa genjot ekspor Indonesia, asal dibantu dengan adanya kredit ekspor,” jelas Rizal.

Menurutnya, negara membutuhkan terobosan baru untuk mengentaskan masalah seperti pelemahan Rupiah.

“New problem need, new solutions. Kalau kita bolak-balik melihat masalah dengan cara lama kita makin tenggelam, kita perlu cara tidak konvensional untuk manfaatkan momentum krisis ini,” tukasnya.

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Bandung infobank–Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di kuartal II-2015 tercatat 4,67% atau melambat dibandingkan dengan kuartal sebelumnya yakni 4,71%. Menurut Bank Indonesia (BI), naik turunnya ekonomi nasional tergantung dari pertumbuhan negara mitra dagang seperti China.

Demikian pernyataan tersebut seperti disampaikan oleh Pelaksana Tugas (Plt) Kepala Grup Pengelolaan Relasi BI, Arbonas Hutabarat, di Bandung, Sabtu, 5 September 2015. Menurutnya, China merupakan salah satu mitra dagang Indonesia yang ekonominya sangat berpengaruh.

Sejalan dengan China yang merupakan mitra dagang penting bagi Indonesia, Arbonas mengungkapkan, setiap perekonomian China menurun 1%, maka akan berdampak pada perlambatan ekonomi Indonesia hingga 0,6%. Hal ini dikarenakan China sebagai pembeli dan Indonesia sebagai penjual.

“Ada bahayanya pertumbuhan China bagi indonesia, setiap 1% penurunan akan berdampak pada penurunan 0,6% terhadap perekonomian indonesia. Mereka itu pembeli, kalau harga komoditas turun dan permintaan dunia turun, kita bakal kena dampaknya,” ujarnya.

Dia mengatakan, empat komoditas unggulan Indonesia yang saat ini tengah mengalami anjlok, telah mengakibatkan permintaan China ikut menurun. Adanya kondisi itu, telah berdampak kepada ekspor Indonesia yang menurun, sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional ikut terkena imbasnya.

“Ekspor kita merosot. Contohnya batubara turun dari 173 dolar per metrik ton pada 2008 turun jadi 57 dolar per metrik ton pada 2015. Nah kenapa China mendevaluasi mata uangnya, karena ekspornya itu turun terus,” tutup Arbonas. (*)

Jakarta infobank–Bank Indonesia (BI) menilai, masih berlanjutnya depresiasi Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) dipengaruhi oleh tren pelambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan arus modal keluar yang terjadi di pasar saham.

Pernyataan tersebut seperti disampaikan Kepala Departemen Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter BI, Juda Agung, di Jakarta, Jumat, 25 September 2015. “Rupiah ini kan juga dipengaruhi faktor pertumbuhan ekonomi, terutama juga di equity market,” ujarnya.

Menurutnya, pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan III-2015 yang diperkirakan hanya sebesar 4,9%, terutama didorong oleh kegiatan proyek infrastruktur yang saat ini tengah dikerjakan, misalnya penjualan semen yang mengalami peningkatan hingga 14%

Selain peningkatan pada penjualan semen yang tumbuh 14%, peningkatan signifikan juga terjadi pada impor besi dan baja sebesar 60%. Hal ini menandakan bahwa belanja modal pemerintah mengalami kenaikan dan sudah terakselerasi.

Lebih lanjut Juda mengungkapkan, prospek yang lebih positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terlihat pada kuartal III dan kuartal IV-2015, diharapkan dapat memperbaiki kondisi pasar modal yang mengalami capital outflow.

“Kuartal keempat, pertumbuhan ekonomi diperkirakan di atas 5%. Sebenarnya saat ini ekonomi sudah mulai rebound,” tutup Juda. (*)

suara pembaruan: Dua paket kebijakan perekonomian yang telah dikeluarkan pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo dengan harapan dapat mengatasi berbagai permasalahan ekonomi yang dihadapi bangsa ini menghasilkan respons dari beragam perwakilan dunia usaha.

Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) menyatakan inti paket dari kebijakan pemerintah adalah serangkaian langkah deregulasi dan debirokratisasi yang dinilai masih belum akan terasa dampaknya dalam waktu dekat.

“Paket kebijakan II yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah pada intinya adalah deregulasi dan debirokratisasi,” kata Wakil Ketua Umum Kadin Bidang Perbankan dan Finansial Rosan P Roeslani.

Menurut Rosan, deregulasi dan debirokratisasi adalah hal yang sangat penting dilakukan karena akan meningkatkan iklim investasi sehingga investasi akan masuk ke Indonesia.

Deregulasi dan debirokratisasi, ujar dia, juga sangat penting dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah karena hingga saat ini, peringkat kemudahaan berbisnis Indonesia masih sangat rendah (peringkat 114) jika dibandingkan negara-negara tetangga seperti Thailand (peringkat 26), Malaysia (18), Singapura (1), Filipina (95), dan Vietnam (78).

“Deregulasi dan debirokratisasi dalam paket kebijakan II yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah perlu diapresiasi,” ujarnya.

Rosan melanjutkan, meski deregulasi dan debirokratisasi sangat penting, namun dampaknya terhadap ekonomi Indonesia tidak akan terasa dalam waktu dekat, dan baru terasa dalam jangka waktu 1-2 tahun ke depan.

Ia mengingatkan bahwa Survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia mengindikasikan bahwa tingkat keyakinan terus mengalami kelemahan sepanjang tahun 2015, seperti pada Agustus penurunan Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi sebesar 2,3 poin dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen sebesar 0,5 poin dari bulan sebelumnya.

“Hasil survei mengindikasikan bahwa konsumen memperkirakan tekanan kenaikan harga semakin menurun pada September 2015. Penurunan tekanan kenaikan harga diperkirakan terjadi pada seluruh kelompok komoditas, dengan penurunan terbesar terjadi pada kelompok bahan makanan dan kelompok sandang,” katanya.

Rosan berpendapat bahwa kebijakan pemerintah yang telah di keluarkan belum menyentuh pada persoalan jangka pendek, seperti pelemahan rupiah, terkurasnya cadangan devisa, dan harga saham yang berguguran dengan indeks harga saham gabungan.

Namun, lanjutnya, walaupun belum dapat dirasakan langusung, tetapi kebijakan pemerintahan tahap II ini dinilai sudah langsung menuju pada sejumlah persoalan yang ada.

“Misalnya, pajak bunga deposito yang saat ini 20 persen akan dipangkas tinggal separuhnya bagi eksportir yang menyimpan devisa hasil ekspor (DHE) dalam valuta asing selama sebulan di perbankan dalam negeri,” katanya.

Ia juga mengungkapkan, pemotongan akan lebih tinggi lagi, yakni tinggal 7,5 persen, jika ditanam tiga bulan, 2,5 persen untuk periode enam bulan, dan nol persen untuk jangka waktu sembilan bulan atau lebih.

Efektif 2016 Masukan lain terkait dengan paket kebijakan perekonomian yang telah dikeluarkan pemerintah, dinilai masih fokus dalam memperkuat investasi dan pasar modal, sementara efektivitas untuk sektor riil dalam negeri diperkirakan baru terlihat pada tahun 2016.

“Kedua paket kebijakan masih bertujuan memperkuat investasi, meredam rupiah dan pasar modal. Bagi sektor riil, baru akan berdampak tahun depan bahkan sampai akhir tahun 2016,” kata Ketua Umum Badan Pengurus Pusat Himpunan Pengusaha Muda Indonesia (Hipmi) Bahlil Lahadalia.

Menurut Bahlil, dampak efektivitas baru terlihat pada tahun 2016 untuk sektor riil sebab dengan adanya kebijakan baru, langkah berikut dari para pengusaha dan investor akan membuat rencana bisnis baru sambil mengamati bagaimana sektor lain berbenah.

Dia berpendapat, kesamaan paket kebijakan jilid I dan II dari pemerintah adalah sama-sama mendorong “supply side” (sisi penawaran) seperti produksi dan investasi berjangka panjang.

Paket tersebut, lanjutnya, berusaha memperbaiki alur perekonomian dari hulu terlebih dahulu, dan belum berfokus pada penguatan permintaan yakni memperkuat daya beli dan efektif dalam jangka pendek.

“Sebab itu, kebijakan ini belum akan mendorong perdagangan, penguatan logistik, dan jaringan distribusi dalam jangka pendek,” papar Ketum Hipmi.

Ia juga menilai kebijakan itu juga belum langsung akan menyerap kembali tenaga kerja yang sempat dirumahkan atau terkena Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK).

Sebelumnya, Ketua Bidang Perbankan Himpi Irfan Anwar mengemukakan, negara perlu memperkuat ekonomi berbasis usaha kecil dan menengah untuk meningkatkan ketahanan bangsa.

“Negara perlu memperkuat ekonomi berbasis usaha, kecil, dan menengah (UKM) untuk menghadapi krisis,” ujar Irfan Anwar di Jakarta, Kamis.

Menurut dia, hal tersebut karena dalam beberapa episode krisis ekonomi di Indonesia, UKM dinilai mampu menyelamatkan perekonomian.

Selain itu, lanjutnya, UKM di Tanah Air juga dinilai mampu menciptakan lapangan kerja lebih banyak daripada usaha-usaha besar.

“Kami harapkan dalam paket-paket ekonomi, UKM ini perlu diakomodasi,” kata Irfan dan menambahkan, UKM mampu bertahan dan dapat menggenjot ekspor lebih kuat lagi.

Pemerintah RI juga telah mengharapkan penyaluran Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) sekitar Rp30 triliun atau sesuai target pada tahun 2015 dapat terserap dan tersalurkan guna membantu sektor UMKM di dalam negeri.

Tidak Langsung Sebagaimana telah diwartakan, paket kebijakan ekonomi yang telah dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah diakui tidak secara langsung bisa membuat perekonomian nasional menjadi baik seketika karena ada beberapa tahap yang dilalui untuk memperbaiki kondisi perekonomian.

“Memang (paket kebijakan ekonomi) itu tidak serta merta (langsung membuat ekonomi menjadi baik),” kata Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla di Kantor Wakil Presiden, Jakarta, Selasa (15/9).

Wapres mengemukakan bahwa paket tersebut merupakan upaya yang terdiri beberapa langkah yang harus diambil seperti adanya langkah-langkah penghematan.

Sementara itu, Kepala Staf Kepresidenan Teten Masduki mengatakan, ke depannya bakal ada paket-paket kebijakan lainnya yang lebih merespons kebutuhan pasar.

“Sekarang baru paket kebijakan terkait deregulasi di perdagangan dan perindustrian,” katanya.

Teten juga memaparkan, dalam jangka pendek pemerintah ingin memperkuat daya beli masyarakat serta meningkatakan investasi dan stabilisasi harga, kemudian menaikkan ekspor.

Kepala Staf Kepresidenan juga menuturkan, daya beli masyarakat bisa meningkat kalau ada peningkatan aktivitas perekonomian dalam negeri yang lebih bergairah sehingga semakin banyak orang yang bisa mendapatkan pekerjaan guna meningkatkan daya beli tersebut.

Menurut dia, kalau efek jangka pendek dari paket kebijakan ekonomi bisa langsung memperkuat nilai tukar rupiah maka hal itu dinilai tidak mungkin kecuali bila ada aliran dana yang masuk melimpah dari luar negeri serta terjadinya peningkatan ekspor.

Pemerintah Republik Indonesia juga sedang memperbaiki iklim investasi karena diakui bahwa untuk negara sasaran ekspor juga sedang mengalami pelemahan permintaan.

“Negara ekspor juga sedang lemah permintaannya. Nilai rupiah baru akan kuat kalau ada cash in flow penanaman modal sehingga dana masuk melimpah di dalam negeri,” katanya. [Ant/N-6]

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untuk APA: ekonomi eurozone LOM PUL1H (2)

butterfly

Kabar24.com, MADRID – Lebih dari 1.501 perusahaan telah meninggalkan Catalunya, wilayah Spanyol timur laut, di tengah kekhawatiran kemerdekaan wilayah tersebut dari Spanyol, media lokal melaporkan baru-baru ini, mengutip sumber dari College of Mercantile Registers of Spain.

Antara 2 Oktober hingga 24 Oktober, sebanyak 1.501 perusahaan memutuskan untuk meninggalkan Catalunya, sementara pada Selasa (24/10/2017), 107 perusahaan memutuskan untuk memindahkan markas mereka dari Catalunya ke tempat lain.

Peristiwa ini sebagai tanggapan atas kekhawatiran akan deklarasi kemerdekaan sepihak, setelah wilayah tersebut mengadakan referendum penentuan nasib sendiri pada 1 Oktober lalu.

Referendum tersebut dinyatakan tidak sah oleh Mahkamah Konstitusi Spanyol, karena melanggar konstitusi Spanyol.

Pemerintah Spanyol mengeluarkan sebuah keputusan setelah referendum yang membuat perusahaan-perusahaan meninggalkan Catalunya dan memindahkan markas mereka ke tempat lain di Spanyol, karena keputusan tersebut tidak perlu disahkan oleh rapat pemegang saham, kecuali undang-undang perusahaan tersebut mengatakan hal yang sebaliknya.

 

Sumber : Antara

LONDON, KOMPAS.com – Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) telah menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi kawasan Eropa untuk tahun 2017 menjadi 2,2 persen. Angka ini adalah pertumbuhan paling pesat dalam 10 tahun.

Mengutip BBC, Jumat (4/9/2017), Presiden ECB Mario Draghi menyatakan, Uni Eropa mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih pesat dari yang diekspektasikan pada semester I 2017.

Ini sejalan dengan ditahannya suku bunga acuan dan program stimulus pembelian obligasi tak diubah.

(Baca: Berlaku Curang, Google Didenda 2,7 Miliar Dollar AS oleh Uni Eropa)

Menurut Draghi, ECB kemungkinan bakal memutuskan terkait stimulus pada bulan depan. Saat ini ECB membeli obligasi senilai 60 miliar euro per bulan sebagai bagian dari program quantitative easing (QE).

Namun, para analis memperkirakan kebijakan ini akan diubah dalam beberapa bulan ke depan sejalan dengan perbaikan ekonomi di Eropa.

ECB telah menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Eropa dari 1,9 persen menjadi 2,2 persen.

“Ada progres yang terlihat oleh perbaikan di kawasan Eropa. (Pertumbuhan ekonomi) kuat, luas, dan menterap 6 juta lapangan kerja,” kata Draghi.

Namun, ECB juga memangkas proyeksi inflasi kawasan Eropa menjadi 1,2 persen pada tahun 2018 dan 1,5 persen pada tahun 2019. Angka-angka tersebut di bawah target ECB sebesar 2 persen.

Draghi menyatakan, kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif masih dibutuhkan untuk menaikkan inflasi. Ia juga menyebut penguatan nilai tukar euro menjadi sumber ketidakpastian.

Data yang dirilis ECB mengonfirmasi pertumbuhan ekonomi kawasan Eropa sebesar 0,6 persen selama periode April-Juni 2017.

Angka ini naik tipis dibandingkan 0,5 persen pada kuartal I 2017, Namun, meski pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat, inflasi kawasan Eropa masih lebih rendah dari target ECB sebesar 2 persen. Inflasi di kawasan tersebut tercatat sebesar 1,5 persen pada Agustus 2017.

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Kabar24.com, BRUSSELS – Kemunculan Donald Trump dengan perilakunya yang khas ternyata menimbulkan kekhawatiran di benua biru, Eropa.

Para pemimpin Eropa khawatir atas fenomena Trump dan apa artinya bagi kondisi yang dapat diramalkan mengenai kemitraan Amerika, sekalipun ia kalah, kata seorang ahli senior di German Marshall Found, yang berpusat di Brussels.

Ian O. Lesser, Direktur Senior bagi Kebijakan Luar Negara GMF, mengeluarkan pernyataan itu dalam wawancara dengan Xinhua.

“Juga ada keprihatinan bahwa pencalonan Trump dapat makin membuat berani gerakan populis sayap-kanan di Eropa, kembali, sekalipun ia kalah,” kata Lesser, sebagaimana dikutip Xinhua –yang dipantau di Jakarta, Jumat  (28/10/2016) siang.

Ia menyatakan sikap yang dikendalikan oleh identitas dan anti-globalisasi yang penuh kemarahan yang terlihat dalam kampanye Trump tentu akan mengingatkan banyak orang Eropa mengenai debat Brexit dan hasilnya yang mengejutkan.

Inggris telah memberi suara untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa setelah kampanye yang dipimpin Partai Independen UK (UKIP) beberapa bulan lalu.

Seperti UKIP, kelompok sayap-kanan jauh seperti French Front National dan Alternative fur Deutschland di Jerman menikmati popularitas yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, sementara partai sayap-kanan telah menguasai pemerintahan di beberapa negara Eropa.

“Seperti di banyak masyarakat lain, sikap populis yang tegas, dan kadang kala penuh kemarahan telah menjadi kekuatan di kancah politik,” kata Lesser.

“Ada revolusi rakyat terhadap kaum elite dan proyek mereka di seluruh bagian penting spektrum politik, termasuk sayap-kanan konservatif, dan sayap-kiri, seperti ditegaskan oleh dukungan mengejutkan buat Bernir Sanders,” katanya.

Kemunculan Donald Trump dan Bernie Sanders sebagai calon tangguh dalam pemilihan umum AS 2016 dipandang oleh banyak orang sebagai kemunculan kembali kaum populis di kancah politik Amerika hari ini, yang juga mengungkapkan beberapa fakta penting mengenai sistem politik AS.

“Beberapa masalah utama bukan baru, termasuk biaya keuangan yang sangat besar dalam upaya seseorang menjadi presiden, dan peran uang dalam politik Amerika,” kata Lesser.

“Kampanye Trump memperlihatkan kekuatan selebritas dan keterbukaan sistem AS –politik sebagai “merek”, dan sebaliknya,” ia menambahkan.

Ketika berbicara mengenai dampaknya pada ekonomi global setelah pemilihan umum, Lesser juga menyatakan sikap kedua calon ke arah kesepakatan perdagangan baru telah terkikis tajam dalam musim pemilihan umum, yang “membuat rumit penampilan bagi TPP, TTIP dan gagasan lain”.

Dalam beberapa bulan belakangan, demonstrasi terhadap Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) meletus di seluruh Jerman, Belgia, Prancis dan beberapa negara lain Eropa. Setelah 14 babak perundingan yang melelahkan, TTIP masih jauh dari kesepakatan pada saat ini.

“Dalam hal sikap negatif ke arah kedua calon utama, ini telah menjadi tahun pemilihan umum yang sangat tidak biasa,” ia menambahkan.

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Data resmi yang dipublikasikan menyatakan, rasio utang pemerintah terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 19-negara zona euro turun pada akhir kuartal kedua.

Angka rasio utang berdiri di 91,2 persen, sedikit turun dari 91,3 persen pada akhir tiga bulan pertama 2016, kata Eurostat, badan statistik Uni Eropa (EU).

Dalam Uni Eropa yang lebih luas, rasio menurun dari 84,5 persen menjadi 84,3 persen, kata lembaga itu.

Ada perbedaan besar di antara negara-negara anggota karena Yunani yang terlilit utang memperlihatkan rasio tertinggi 179,2 persen dari April ke Juni, sementara Estonia mencatat angka terendah 9,7 persen.

Italia, yang bank menderita krisis utang, melaporkan rasio setinggi 135,5 persen, kata Eurostat.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/10/25/20/1523602/rasio-utang-terhadap-pdb-negara-uni-eropa-turun
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
The British pound has jumped to its highest level in over a week Tuesday after a lawyer for Theresa May’s government said parliament will “very likely” have to ratify an eventual agreement between the U.K. and the European Union when the country leaves the bloc.

The comments are significant because the majority of MPs are opposed to leaving the EU, and are upset at indications that the government will not even try to keep the U.K. in the EU’s Single Market as it tries to negotiate the ‘Brexit’ settlement.

The U.K. sends over 40% of its exports to the EU, and the financial services sector, which accounts for over 10% of gross domestic product, is particularly dependent on unconstrained access to the Single Market. The pound has plunged in the last two weeks on fears that this access would be lost. If parliament were to reject the government’s draft settlement (and public opinion were to swing back behind Remaining), it is possible that the U.K. may stay in the EU after all.

James Eadie, who is representing May’s government in a High Court challenge over who has the right to trigger divorce talks, said members of parliament would very probably be allowed a say on the final exit deal.

“The government view at the moment is it is very likely that any such agreement will be subject to ratification” Eadie said.

Somewhat confusingly, Attorney General Jeremy Wright–also arguing the government’s case–however maintained that once the government formally notifies the rest of the EU of its decision to leave, the process would be irrevocable. That’s not only at odds with Eadie’s comments, but also with a broad hint from EU Council President Donald Tusk last weekthat “no Brexit” was still an option–“even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”

By lunchtime in London. the pound was at $1.2272, up 0.7% from late trading on Monday, having briefly traded above $1.23 earlier. It’s still down 17% from the day before the fateful vote to leave the EU in June, though.

Eadie’s comments weren’t the only thing supporting sterling Tuesday, though. Data published earlier by the Office for National Statistics showedinflation hit a 21-month high of 1% in September–and that is even before the weakness of the pound feeds through into higher import prices. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said Tuesday that “forecasts are starting to migrate towards a 3% CPI (consumer price index) next year,” above the Bank of England’s inflation target of 2%. That may restrict the BoE’s freedom to support the economy with further interest rate cuts or quantitative easing.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Friday that the Bank would likely “look through” a short-term increase in inflation caused by sterling’s depreciation. Most analysts expect it to cut its key Base Rate for a second time since the referendum between now and the end of the year. However, the Bank is coming under increasing pressure from May’s party to end a period of ultra-low interest rates that has depressed income for (largely Conservative-voting) savers and pensioners.

This article originally appeared on Fortune.com

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bbc.com: HARD BREXIT : A group of major business lobby groups has written an open letter urging the government to preserve barrier free trade with Europe.

The letter is signed by leaders of the CBI and manufacturers’ body the EEF.

It says the way in which the UK leaves the EU and on what terms is critical for jobs and investment in the UK.

It says defaulting to trading by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would leave 90% of UK goods trade with the EU subject to new tariffs.

The letter says that would mean 20% in extra costs for the UK’s food and drink industry and 10% for car producers.

These significant costs would affect British exporters and importers, as well as those in their supply chains, it adds.

“We respect the result of the referendum, but the government must make sure that the terms of the deal to leave ensure stability, prosperity and improved living standards,” the groups write.

“Every credible study that has been conducted has shown that [the] WTO option would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy and those of our trading partners.”

The letter calls for the government to “give certainty to business by immediately ruling this option out under any circumstances”.

‘Safeguard prosperity’

One of the signatories, CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn, said the letter called for “ruling out of the really worst options, to reassure investors that the UK was still a really good place to invest”.

“There is a negotiation that’s going to take place, and I think businesses completely understand that,” she said.

“But falling into WTO rules in only 29 months from now, would mean up to 90% of goods could potentially have tariffs on them, there would not be the passports for our services industries.”


Analysis: Theo Leggett, business correspondent

It increasingly looks as though Britain is heading for a so-called “hard Brexit” – and business leaders are becoming very worried.

At the Conservative Party conference, Theresa May made it clear the country would not remain in the EU’s single market if doing so meant losing control of immigration. Yet European leaders insist that free movement of goods and services comes hand in hand with the free movement of people.

The uncertainty – and the prospect of trade with the EU becoming subject to tariffs and other trade barriers – has been driving down the value of the pound, which has been trading against the dollar at a level not seen in more than three decades.

So this letter offers a stark warning. The UK, it says, needs access to the single market. Leaving the EU and reverting to international trade rules would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy. Costs for businesses would go up. Jobs could be lost.

But this message isn’t new – and the evidence suggests the prime minister has other priorities. So will she be listening?


The letter she signed also says there is a wealth of evidence to suggest EU negotiations will not be completed within the Article 50 two-year timeframe.

“Many areas of regulation now up for discussion are highly complicated… The government should therefore secure agreement of a transitional period, to ensure that businesses can continue to operate with no ‘cliff edge’ change to current circumstances until regulatory and legal changes can be implemented,” it says.

It concludes that the UK voted to leave the EU but not to cause living standards to decline: “We want a Brexit that safeguards future prosperity for everyone across the UK.”

Mike Cherry, Federation of Small Businesses chairman, said the effect of uncertainty on the market was reflected in its quarterly index, showing confidence at its lowest level since 2012, and causing problems for small businesses.

But he added: “On the other side of that, there are many small businesses looking to overseas markets to export their goods, products and services. For them, this does present a tremendous opportunity to grasp more of the market overseas.”

‘Sovereign country’

At the Conservative Party conference last Sunday, Prime Minister Theresa May said she would trigger Article 50, the clause needed to start the process of exiting the EU, by the end of March 2017.

She said a “trade-off” between controlling immigration and trade with Europe was the “wrong way of looking at things”.

Britain, Mrs May said, had voted to become a “fully-independent, sovereign country” and would “decide for ourselves” how immigration was controlled alongside “the best deal possible” with the EU.

 

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investing.com: Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Commerzbank (LON:CZB) are discussing merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.

The banks are desperately seeking ways to cut costs and improve profitability. Their plans include restructuring and job cuts using highly unconventional measures. In June, Reuters cited anonymous sources saying that Commerzbank was exploring the option of hoarding billions of euros as a way of avoiding paying a penalty to the European Central Bank, thanks to negative interest rates.

Their main problems derive mostly from low and negative interest rates. These lenders are used to depending on interest-rate margins for income while offering some services to depositors at either low or no cost. Low interest rates have significantly eroded their ability to make money. It has become difficult for German banks to incentivize customers to deposit their money in their vaults. These inefficiencies — and the intense competition within the German banking sector — have already led to serious financial difficulties. If one combines these factors with the new challenge of declining interest rates, what possible positive impact can they expect to incur?

Interestingly, rates are not just low within the context of American history but they also happen to be at their lowest levels ever in over 5,000 years of civilization.

That’s 5,000 years of interest rates, which are currently lower than the 1930’s Depression Era.

Historical Interest Rates

Historical Interest Rates

Deutsche Bank is not merely Germany’s biggest bank but the political role that it plays in Germany is unique compared to other countries. Deutsche Bank’s importance to Germany is many times greater than that of an investment bank like Lehman Brothers was to the U.S. in 2008. Deutsche Bank is technically a private bank, however it is informally tied to the government and formally tied to most major German corporations. The bank’s fate will have an impact on the entire country.

And then there’s Italy, whose banking crisis is not just confined to its borders.

Italy’s non-performing loan issues are common knowledge. Who will be forced to deal with settling Italy’s impaired debt? That’s a political question and the answer depends, in large measure, on who holds Italian bank debt.

The U.S banks are not shielded from Europe’s banking problems. There is a substantial amount of uncertainty and risk.

The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis due to the European Unions’ regulations. The European Central Bank and the central banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them. The bail-in strategy is, in theory, a mechanism for ensuring fair competition and stability within the financial sector across the Eurozone.

The bail-in process can potentially apply to any liabilities of the institution that is not backed by assets or collateral. The first 100,000 euros ($111,000) in deposits are protected in the sense that they cannot be seized, while any money above that amount can be.

Germany insisted on the bail-in process.

The Bank for International Settlements stated that German banks are the second-most exposed to Italy, after France, with a total exposure of $92.7 billion. Is it any wonder that gold demand has increased?

Italy’s ongoing banking crisis is presenting yet another threat to the stability of the ECB.

Commerzbank’s financial statements revealed that its Italian sovereign debt exposure was 10.8 billion euros ($12.1 billion).

Deutsche Bank’s net credit risk exposure to Italy is 13.3 billion euros as of the end of December 2015. Its gross position in Italy is 35.4 billion euros. Deutsche Bank is sitting on $41.9 trillion worth of derivatives.

The Consequences Are Significant

Gold is the only safe haven left in the world. Indeed, the metal has been a form of currency for centuries. Whenever countries followed a strict gold standard and used it as their currency, their economies were stable. But governments have always surpassed their means with costly spending, causing them to abandon the gold standard to fund their inefficiencies. I think gold is beginning a multi-year bull market as it’s the only asset class that will be able to maintain its’ ‘store of value’ during this impending crisis. In fact ‘gold mania’ is about to take off as global central banks implement negative interest rates, which is an ideal environment for gold to surge higher.

Gold does have a historical store of value. central banks and institutions horde it as a reserve. And they do not want to sell it. On the contrary, many want to accumulate even more. Therefore, gold’s characteristic role in regard to sovereign reserves is still intact even amid the fascinating evolution of central banking and institutional finance.

BRUSSELS sindonews– Inflasi zona euro tercatat tetap lemah pada Agustus, untuk membuka peluang terkait kebijakan lanjutan Bank Sentral Eropa untuk merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi zona euro tidak berubah pada level 0,2% dibandingkan Juli, hal ini di bawah perkiraan analis sebelumnya yang memprediksi ada sedikit kenaikan.

Dilansir BBCnews, Kamis (1/9/2016) Bank Sentral Eropa (European Central Bank/ECB) telah mengumumkan sejumlah langkah-langkah stimulus, namun target inflasi masih tetap berada pada jalur target di bawah 2%. Sementara data terpisah menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran tetap berada pada level 10,1% di bulan Juli.

Sebelumnya analis telah meramalkan ada sedikit penurunan pada level pengangguran saat ini. Di sisi lain inflasi zona euro yang tidak berubah disebabkan harga makanan, layanan dan barang industri tidak mengalami kenaikan terlalu besar di Juli sedangkan penurunan harga di sektor energi tidak terlalu tajam.

Pada Maret tahun ini, ECB telah mengambil langkah dalam upaya mendongkrak ekonomi zona euro dengan pemotongan suku bunga utama dari 0,05% menjadi 0% dan tingkat deposito bank dari minus 0,3% menjadi minus 0,4%. ECB sudah melakukan pelonggaran kuantitatif dan saat ini membeli obligasi senilai 80 miliar euro.

Dijadwalkan pada pekan depan, dewan pengurus bank akan melakukan pertemuan ketika analis tidak yakin apakah akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah kebijkan baru. “Tampaknya akan ada tekanan apakah ECB akan kembali mengambil kebijakan pada 8 September atau mempertahankan sikap wait and see untuk melihat sejauh mana kinerja ekonomi zona euro,” ucap Kepala Ekonom Inggris dan Eropa IHS Global Insight Howard Archer

(akr)

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New York, Aug 2, 2016 (AFP)
Global stocks tumbled Tuesday as worries about unsteady European banks and an underwhelming Japanese stimulus package prompted selling.

Most bourses fell as analysts describing a revival of worries due also to lackluster US economic data and slumping oil prices.

Losses were especially steep in Europe, where anxiety was rising over bank stress tests that were seen as overly-lenient, said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.

The overriding fear concerns the difficulty banks face making money in a low interest rate era.

Milan stocks tanked 2.8 percent as shares in crisis-hit Italian bank Monte Paschi di Siena (BMPS) plunged 16 percent after investors were swept up by concerns about the plans to shore up the worst performing lender in Europe-wide stress tests.

Frankfurt and Paris both shed 1.8 percent and London lost 0.7 percent, hit also by weak post-Brexit construction survey data.

British bank Barclays sank 3.6 percent in London, while French peers BNP Paribas and Societe Generale lost 4.3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

Shares in other Italian banks were also down sharply, including Unicredit, which fell by 7.2 percent after plunging by 9.4 percent on Monday.

Adding to the woes was discontent with Japan’s efforts to ignite its economy.

Japan’s cabinet Tuesday approved a mammoth 28-trillion yen ($273 billion) package in its latest attempt to stimulate feeble growth, but the plan fell flat on global markets as it includes just 7.5 trillion yen in fresh spending.

The Nikkei lost 1.5 percent.

Analysts have critcized stimulus planned by the Bank of Japan.

“There’s already the sense that central banks don’t have the power to stimulate the economy the way they used to,” Low said. “There’s an awful lot to worry about again.”

US stocks were also hit by disappointing auto sales, worries about retailers and poor airline industry data.

Automobile shares tumbled as July auto sales showed signs the industry’s boom period may be slowing. Fiat Chrysler dropped 4.0 percent, Ford 4.3 percent and General Motors 4.4 percent.

Shares of Macy’s, Nordstrom and Kohl’s all fell six percent or more following a Bloomberg News report that cited a note by Cleveland Research that pointed to slow sales this summer.

Airlines were another weak sector as Delta Air Lines said a key benchmark of passenger revenue fell seven percent in July. Delta lost 7.8 percent, American Airlines 5.9 percent and United Continental 6.3 percent.

– Key figures around 2100 GMT –

New York – DOW: DOWN 0.5 percent at 18,313.77 (close)

New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.6 percent at 2,157.03 (close)

New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 0.9 percent at 5,137.73 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.7 percent at 6,645.40 points (close)

Frankfurt – DAX 30: DOWN 1.8 percent at 10,144.34 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 1.8 percent at 4,327.99 (close)

Milan – FTSE MIB: DOWN 2.8 percent at 16,098 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 2.0 percent at 2,906.98 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.5 percent at 16,391.45 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.6 percent at 2,971.28 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: closed

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1224 from $1.1160

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3354 from $1.3178

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 100.90 yen from 102.41 yen

burs-rl-jmb/mdl

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Paris, July 27, 2016 (AFP)
Air travel bookings to France have fallen by a fifth for August and September following the deadly jihadist attack in Nice, a specialist in traveller data said Wednesday.

Even before the July 14 attack, flight reservations to France were down by 16 percent for the two months compared to the same period in 2015 due to the Paris attacks in November, ForwardKeys said.

The Spanish-based company has access to databases of more than 200,000 online and physical travel agencies.

For Nice alone, air bookings from abroad have slumped 19 percent after the Bastille Day attack. They had already been projected to fall by 14 percent, ForwardKeys said in a statement.

It also studied the flow of international tourists in the immediate aftermath of the Nice attack, in which a truck driven by Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, a 31-year-old Tunisian, rammed into Bastille Day revellers, killing 84 and injuring more than 300.

“As an immediate reaction, international visitor arrivals in Nice dropped by 9.4 percent in the week after the attack, when compared with the same time last year,” it said.

“Across the country, post-attack arrivals were down 8.8 percent.”

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#ixzz4DnMCGNbt

Brexit in seven charts — the economic impact

The question of how Brexit will affect the UK economy is one of the crucial issues now that Britain has voted to leave the EU. The fall in sterling, the slide in stock markets and the freeze in investment are all indications that the short-term impact will be serious.

But the bigger question is how breaking up with Brussels will affect the economy longer term.

Millions of words on the topic — including economists’ majority view that leaving the bloc will slow growth and the Leave campaign’s counterarguments that Britain will prosper — could be replaced by seven charts.

These sum up the arguments over what breaking up with Brussels will really mean for jobs, growth and public finances.

The EU was good for Britain

The UK used to be the sick man of Europe. Its annual growth in prosperity improved from bottom of the league among the G7 leading economies before it joined the European Economic Community to top spot in the 43 years after 1973. This does not prove that becoming a member improved Britain’s international performance. It does, however, allow the Remain campaign to argue that membership did not prevent UK national renewal.

Alternative explanation
Economists from the Leave side would point out that the absolute growth rates were lower after 1973 than before and that the main reason for Britain’s improved performance was Margaret Thatcher’s reforms, not EU membership.

Assessment
Splitting correlation from causation is difficult. All countries’ growth slowed after the postwar surge petered out. But, given the dramatic improvement in Britain’s position, it is nearly impossible to argue that the EU stood in the way of Britain pulling up its socks. In the most detailed assessment to date, professor Nick Crafts of Warwick university, Britain’s leading economic historian, estimates that the EU directly raised UK prosperity by about 10 per cent, largely due to increased competition and better access to the single European market.

What trade deals will replace EU membership?

What will a new ministry of trade have to do after the country breaks off with the EU to replace current trading relationships? Sign a deal with the remaining 27 members of the EU, come to an arrangement with about 50 additional countries with which the EU has preferential deals, or all the remaining 161 members of the World Trade Organisation?

A bilateral deal with the bloc is likely to take years to negotiate, say experienced trade negotiators. Barack Obama, US president, has also cautioned that Britain would be “at the back of the queue” for a US-UK trade deal.

Alternative explanation
The Leave campaign said the UK does not need trade agreements to trade. It said that Germany and other countries running trade surpluses with the UK would eagerly seek a preferential deal and the UK could be much more nimble in negotiating deals with other countries.

Assessment
Leave was right that trade deals are not necessary for trade. But such agreements do set the rules for commerce and protect Britain and UK companies from disputes and arbitrary actions from other countries. Leaving the EU will require a mammoth negotiation process, since Britain cannot even guarantee to be able to trade securely under WTO rules, since it does not have its own schedule of tariffs, commitments on services and agricultural subsidies. Without this, Britain will be left vulnerable to legal action under WTO dispute settlement rules.

Can Britain cut migration significantly?

Britain’s net migration stood at 333,000 in 2015, the second-highest figure on record and more than three times David Cameron’s 2010 pledge to bring the figure down to the tens of thousands. Net immigration from EU countries, particularly central and eastern European member states, rose rapidly after their accession to the EU in 2004 and more recently when citizens of Bulgaria and Romania acquired the right to work and settle in the UK. Only by leaving the EU can the government reduce the numbers of EU migrants.

Alternative explanation
EU migrants tend to be young and are likely to be employed. They contribute more to the UK public finances than they take out and much more than UK-born citizens. And their numbers already appeared to be plateauing, now that the initial surge from Romania and Bulgaria has abated.

Assessment
Even if EU net migration was cut to zero, Britain would have far more migrants from non-EU countries than the prime minister’s tens of thousands pledge. As long as Britain’s economy does well, it will attract immigrants.

Do migrants reduce UK wages?

The chart shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

A Bank of England study found a small effect on the lower paid, with a 10 percentage point rise in the share of low-skilled migrants reducing wages of the lower paid by 2 per cent. But the increase in EU migration share has been only about 2 percentage points between 2008 and 2015, suggesting the effect on low pay is about a cut of 0.4 per cent over seven years.

Alternative explanation
While the Leave campaign grossly exaggerated the very small measured effect of migration on low skill wages, there is a question whether normally high growth areas should be expected to have had larger increases in wages. This could explain why there is no positive correlation in the chart between areas of high immigration and higher wage rises.

Assessment
The available evidence suggests EU migration does not cut people’s pay, even for the low paid. But there is a possibility that it allows employers to increase employment in high demand areas without raising pay but allowing EU migration to be a buffer.

Were EU regulations a yoke around the neck of the UK economy?

Evidence that EU regulations stifled British creativity, innovation, competition and growth is thin on the ground. The OECD assesses that the UK has the second lowest level of product market regulation among its members, just below the Netherlands. There is no figure for the US in 2013.

Podcast

Fact-checking Brexit claims with Tim Harford

Tim Harford joins host Cardiff Garcia to discuss the potential economic effects of the UK leaving the EU. The referendum campaigns that preceded Brexit included a number of exaggerations and, in some cases, outright lies. But there are also nuanced and difficult questions that cannot be answered definitively, and deserve careful scrutiny. Music by Minden

The differences between EU member states in this measure and in assessments of labour market regulation suggests that, far from harmonising practices across member states, Brussels’ rules allow countries to maintain their own rules to have highly or lightly regulated economies.

Alternative explanation
Leave campaigners said that even these regulations are too many and should not be set for the whole single market. They think that British regulations would be better and even less onerous on business.

Assessment
Britain has a good record in international league tables and by far the most costly regulations are not shown here, such as rules governing planning and the use of land. There is no guarantee that repatriating regulatory activity from Brussels will not make the rules worse. Such repatriation will itself be a massive bureaucratic undertaking. It would be better to improve the regulatory environment where Britain has always been in control, but failed to take action.

What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

This figure — widely promoted by the Leave campaign — is not correct, as several Brexiters acknowledged after the polls had closed. When pushed, the Leave campaign accepts that Britain’s net contributions are much lower after the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher and payments to farmers, poorer regions and science. Britain does, however, make net contributions to the EU budget of £8.5bn in 2015, about £163m a week. This will be saved once the UK had left the EU and Britain would get to choose how it spent the money currently allocated for farmers and others by common EU rules.

Alternative explanation
A net contribution of £8.5bn is roughly £1 out of every £100 the British government spends every year, so any savings will be small. The Institute for Fiscal Studies and others have pointed out that if leaving the EU implies slower growth, the net saving would be wiped out through lower tax revenues and higher benefit spending — even if the growth reduction was merely 0.6 per cent. The IFS estimated that if the economic assessments of Brexit were accurate, leaving the EU would cost UK taxpayers between £20bn and £40bn a year.

Assessment
There is no doubt that the effect of EU membership on national income was more important for the UK public finances than the annual membership fee. This is the dominant issue and a small hit would leave Britain’s public sector worse off.

Put it all together economists. What do you get?

Brexit hurts. The main groups of economists who have published studies in the campaign use different models and different data but speak with more unanimity on this subject than on any other. Erecting trade barriers with the EU would hit prosperity, which is not easily replaced by greater free trade elsewhere. Leaving the bloc will afford the country little additional regulatory freedom and there could be long-term consequences from the short-term upheaval of Brexit. Economists overwhelmingly think leaving the EU is bad for the UK economy.

Alternative explanation
One group — economists for Brexit — believes Britain’s economy will be stronger if it adopts unilateral free trade, dropping all barriers on imports and letting other countries decide whether to maintain tariffs on British exports. This diverts all trade away from the EU, lowers prices and produces gains

Assessment
The economists for Brexit are out on a limb, both because of their desire for unilateral tariff reduction and due to their assessment of the benefits. Many other economists say the model the group uses is far removed from the real world and is not related to real current data on trade patterns.

Rarely has there been such a consensus among economists, as there is on the damage that Brexit will wreak on the British economy. The warning may turn out to be wrong — but it is difficult to ignore.

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The fallout from the Brexit vote reverberated through the markets on Tuesday as two more City property funds barred investors from withdrawing their cash and the Bank of England warned that risks to the financial system had begun to “crystallise”.

City watchers warned that further property funds would be forced to bar withdrawals as investors race for the door amid fears of a plunge in the values of office blocks and shopping centres in post Brexit Britain.

The suspensions came on another day of drama on the financial markets, 11 days after the vote to leave the EU wrong-footed investors and sparked political turmoil. Developments included:

The pound plunging to a new 31-year low against the dollar, falling 2% to $1.30 at one point.

A closely watched survey of the services sector coming in worse than expected, indicating a sharp slowdown in the wider economy.

The Bank of England easing regulations on banks to allow them to release up to £150bn worth of loans to households and businesses.

Chancellor George Osborne held a summit with the heads of the major high street banks, who pledged to avoid a new credit crisis by making loans available.

The property funds barring withdrawals included M&G Investments, which runs a £4.4bn property fund, and Aviva Investments, whose fund has assets worth £1.8bn.

The moves came one day after Standard Life banned its clients from doing the same on its £2.9bn property fund, with the firms saying they had acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following “extraordinary market circumstances”.

Investors have been buying into commercial property funds to try to benefit from the 40% rise in commercial property prices since the 2009 crisis. But concerns that the market may have peaked before the referendum – plus fears on the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy – has triggered nervy investors to ask for their cash back.

Large-scale outflows cause problems for commercial property funds because they are based on assets that are difficult to sell quickly when investors want their money back. Restrictions on withdrawals are then put in place to give fund managers time to sell their properties. Otherwise, they would be forced to sell assets at fire-sale prices to fund the redemption requests. That would drive down the fund’s value, encouraging more investors to cash out, creating a vicious circle.

The Bank of England said in its half-yearly assessment of risks to the financial system published on Tuesday said that some of the risks to the financial system it had warned about in the run-up to the referendum had “begun to crystallise”, including the possible downturn in the commercial real estate market.

Around £35bn – or 7% of the total investment in UK commercial property – is invested in commercial property funds, which offer private investors a chance to gain exposure to huge office block developments and shopping centres. M&G’s fund has invested in properties including New Square Park, a 250-acre office park near Heathrow airport, and the eight-storey 3 Hardman Square office block in Manchester; while Aviva holds sites including 20 Soho Square development in central London and the Guildhall shopping centre in Exeter.

Andrew Bailey, the newly installed chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, the City watchdog, said the current situation “points to issues that we need to look at in the design of these things” and insisted there was no cause for panic.

Bailey’s comments came as City commentators queued up to warn of further woe for the commercial property sector – and predict that other funds would be compelled to temporarily prevent withdrawals.

Simon French, chief economist at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said: “Commercial real estate looked very vulnerable as we entered the referendum with most finance directors thinking the stuff was overpriced before Brexit. Add that to the fact that material changes to immigration and market access will affect prime office space occupants and a financial sector most correlated to GDP slowdown, then this looks like a perfect storm.”

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at financial firm Hargreaves Lansdown, added that banning investors from redemptions could happen to any of the funds. “We have now had two in very short succession. It suggests that we are on the cusp of others.”

Khalaf added that around 10% of a fund’s asset value tends to be held in cash and that funds selling off their assets would inevitably put pressure on commercial property prices across the UK.

However, Bailey called for calm and said that the suspension of the funds should not been seen as a panic measure. “It’s designed into these structures to deal precisely with that situation where there’s been some shock to the market, if you like, and there’s a presumption of a valuation adjustment which is quite hard to capture in illiquid assets at high frequency,” he said. “And the purpose of the suspension is to create a pause, if you like, to allow that process then to happen. And that’s sensible, it’s absolutely sensible.”

Other analysts played down fears of a rerun of the 2009 crisis when commercial property prices plunged and banks were left nursing heavy losses on their loans.

Eduardo Gorab, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: “Clearly, the uncertainty kicked up by the referendum’s result has had an adverse impact on sentiment, which has been driving outflows over the last week or two.

“However, if we are right in thinking that occupier and investment markets are well placed to weather the uncertainty, we suspect that fears of a repeat of 2009 are overdone.”

The Bank of England has already subjected banks to tests to ensure they can sustain a 30% fall in commercial property prices and will impose tests on them again this year.

However, the Bank said that there could be wider fallout from declines in commercial property prices. This is because 75% of small business loans are secured against property while banks also use such loans to count towards their capital buffers.

In its biannual assessment of financial risks, the Bank said it was “focused on the potential for adjustments in the commercial real estate market to be amplified and affect economic activity by reducing the ability of companies that use commercial real estate as collateral to access finance. Any adjustment could potentially be amplified by the behaviour of leveraged investors and investors in open-ended funds.”

Around 45% of commercial property is funded by foreign investment although there has been a 50% reduction in such investment in the first quarter of the year, the Bank of England said.

Although there is no technical link between commercial property prices and residential property, house market experts have warned that Britain’s decision to leave the EU will affect demand and valuations for residential property in the coming months. Foxtons, the London-focused estate agent, issued a profit warning in the wake of the EU poll as it predicted that the capital’s property market will remain depressed for the rest of the year.

gifi

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham Jepang bergerak positif pada awal perdagangan hari ini, Jumat (1/7/2016), setelah bank sentral di Eropa mengisyaratkan kebijakan moneter yang lebih longgar. Hal ini mengurangi ketidakpastian atas dampak dari keputusan Inggris meninggalkan Uni Eropa (Brexit).

Indeks Topix naik 0,59% atau 7,31 poin ke level 1.253,13, setelah dibuka menguat 0,73% atau 9,05 poin di posisi 1.254,87.

Pada saat yang sama, indeks Nikkei 225 juga menguat 0,72% atau 112,44 poin ke level 15.668,36 setelah dibuka dengan penguatan 0,78% atau 122,10 poin di level 15.698,02.

Sementara itu, nilai tukar mata uang yen Jepang terpantau menguat 0,29% atau 0,30 poin ke posisi 102,90 yen per dolar AS pada pukul 08.15 WIB setelah dibuka dengan pergerakan stagnan di posisi 103,20.

Seperti dilansir Bloomberg hari ini, bank sentral Eropa (European Central Bank/ECB) mempertimbangkan melonggarkan aturan untuk pembelian obligasi dalam program stimulusnya demi memastikan kredit yang cukup untuk dibeli setekah keputusan Brexit.

Gubernur Bank of England Mark Carney juga menyatakan BOE mungkin perlu melonggarkan kebijakannya dalam beberapa bulan ke depan untuk mengatasi dampak tersebut.

“Mood untuk lebih banyak pelonggaran cenderung menyebar ke seluruh dunia, dan harga saham naik,” kata Juichi Wako, strategi senior Nomura Securities Co. “Bukan berarti bahwa krisis itu telah berganti menjadi anugerah, namun rasa tinggi urgensi di antara pihak otoritas akan memungkinkan berlajutnya respon kebijakan yang baik untuk pasar.”

Sebanyak 152 saham menguat, 62 saham melemah, dan 11 saham stagnan dari 225 saham pada indeks Nikkei.

Saham Terumo Corp. melesat 2,88%, disusul oleh Tokyo Electron Ltd. yang menanjak 2,20%, Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. yang naik 0,59%, dan FANUC Corp. yang menguat 0,64%.

 

Pergerakan Indeks Nikkei 225: 

Tanggal Level Perubahan
1 Juli 2016

(Pk. 08.00 WIB)

15.688,36 +0,72%
30/6/2016 15.575,92 +0,06%
29/6/2016 15.566,83 +1,59%
28/6/2016 15.323,14 +0,09%
27/6/2016 15.309,21 +2,39%

Sumber: Bloomberg

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the independent: Germany’s political leaders are furious that nobody in the UK wants to take the responsibility of starting divorce proceedings with the EU.

David Cameron, who will continue in office until 2 September – but as a temporary Prime Minister keeping the seat warm for his successor – has refused to get involved in the complex Brexit negotiations.

Boris Johnson – seen by many as Mr Cameron’s most likely successor – has said that he will not want to start the hard bargaining straight away, if elected. He wants a breathing space in which the UK representatives could sound out their EU counterparts to see where there is room for negotiating over the difficult issues around trade and immigration.

Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty, which sets out the procedure for a Brexit, lays down that it is up to the country that is proposing to leave to set the procedure in motion. That means that the UK cannot be forced into negotiations until the prime minister is ready.

But once the process begins, both sides will be working to a two year deadline, and on the British side there are fears that being rushed may prevent them getting the best possible deal for the UK. This is likely to make whoever is Prime Minister in September reluctant to start a process from which there will no going back.

Other EU leaders want the process completed quickly because they worry about the damage Brexit will do the whole European project. They fear that allowing it to drag on might encourage movements in other EU states in favour of pulling out. There is also simmering anger at the British decision which makes EU opinion leaders want to tell Britain to get lost.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is personally sympathetic to the British plight, has bowed to domestic pressure and ruled out any negotiations on future deals until Article 50 has been invoked by the UK.

Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, told journalists that Germany will ‘respect’ the British need for time before formal talks begin, but he  added: “One thing is clear – before Great Britain has sent this notification, there will be no informal preliminary talks about the exit modalities.”

The French finance minister, Michel Sapin, said the French government agrees with the Germans that the sooner the UK leaves, the better. “France, like Germany, thinks that Britain voted for Brexit, and Brexit should be put in place starting now.”

One well-placed German source said: “The political parties, the political leaders, the commentators and a big, big majority of the people want this process to start yesterday.

“They are absolutely determined – ‘you decided to go, now get out’. They are absolutely pissed about Cameron. They see him as ego centric and ego manic. He tried to a play a poker game, and lost. The issue wasn’t about the EU, it was to save his butt. It was mismanaged and not very clever.

“They are putting pressure on Angela Merkel, who is a little more understanding of the British position, but she can’t afford to be the only supporter of Mr Cameron.”

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lapang DADA: disinflasi, deflasi, deflationary

INDONESIA: juga kena DEFLASIONER tuh, LOW INFLATION

major economies INFLASI2006-2016_(%)

tingkat INFLASI negara2 maju

ikon analisis gw

tingkat inflasi negara2 maju: JEPANG, AMRIK, N EUROzone menunjukkan bahwa TLAH TERJADI TEKANAN @ Inflasi menjadi di bawah +4%, bahkan cenderung TURUN (garis putus2 merah) menjadi DEFLASI (inflasi negatif)… berarti daya beli rakyat negara2 tersebut juga terimbas ikut TURUN lah … ini sesuai dengan hukum ekuilibrium ekonomi, tren pasokan dibandingkan dengan tren permintaan … tren permintaan tampaknya TURUN, sementara kekuatan tren pasokan maseh bisa meningkat … pasokan berlebihan akan menyebabkan tekanan pada HARGA produk pasokan, yaitu TURUN lah

DAYA BELI MASYARAKAT negara maju terkesan AMAT terpengaruh @ periode 2008-2016, yaitu tren jangka panjang daya belinya MELEMAH, walo sempat ada perbaikan kecil n jangka pendek… krisis RESESI RAKSASA keuangan global (dimulai dari subprime mortgage crises di amrik) tlah berimbas amat dahsyat @ tren kekuatan daya beli masyarakat global, terutama negara maju n negara miskin, sehingga negara sedang berkembang (emerging markets) juga terganggu lah.

Periode pemulihan pasca krisis global 2008 berjalan amat lamban… dicerminkan oleh kebijakan para Bank Sentral negara maju (Jepang, ECB, the Fed) yang menjalankan Quantitative Easing n suku bunga simpanan/kredit negara yang RENDAH. Tapi imbas kebijakan pelonggaran moneter ini TIDAK LANGSUNG BERDAMPAK POSITIF @ tingkat inflasi, karena proses restrukturisasi perekonomian, khususnya di bidang PINJAMAN aka UTANK aka LIABILITAS (kewajiban) berjalan RUARRBIASA LAMBAN.

Periode pemuliahan pasca krisis global 2008 juga diperlambat oleh 2 krisis raksasa global laennya: Eurozone 2010-2016, n China 2013-2017.

Kemampuan daya beli masyarakat negara maju amat bergantung @ kemampuan industri finansial menyediakan PINJAMAN. Pinjaman yang ringan bunganya, persyaratannya ringan, n besar pinjaman yang sesuai, itu yang dibutuhkan masyarakat. Faktanya: persyaratan dipersulit, n besar pinjaman tidak bertambah besar. Itu sebabnya harga-harga produk kebutuhan disesuaikan dengan kemampuan mayoritas masyarakat, yaitu diTURUNkan disesuaikan dengan daya beli yang TURUN tersebut.

Lingkaran setan penurunan inflasi yang cuma didukung oleh kebijakan moneter Quantitative Easing semakin terbentuk. Daya beli masyarakat turun, lalu harga2 kebutuhan turun (cek harga minyak global yang ambrol dari $100 k $30 per barel), kemudian pendapatan perusahaan2 turun, tingkat gaji karyawan turun (setidaknya naek hanya imut aza persentasenya per taonnya), pengangguran tetap tinggi, lalu berujung @ daya beli masyarakat yang rendah, sehingga tingkat harga kebutuhan pun tetap rendah bahkan cenderung turun, lalu terjadi lah deflasi.

 

dreaming

DEFINITION of ‘Disinflation’

 

A slowing in the rate of price inflation. Disinflation is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Although it is used to describe periods of slowing inflation, disinflation should not be confused with deflation.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Disinflation’

Disinflation is commonly used by the Federal Reserve to describe situations of slowing inflation. Instances of disinflation are not uncommon and are viewed as normal during healthy economic times. Although sometimes confused with deflation, disinflation is not considered to be as problematic because prices do not actually drop and disinflation does not usually signal the onset of a slowing economy.

DEFINITION of ‘Deflation’

A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum.

The decline in prices of assets, is often known as Asset Deflation.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Deflation’

Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and deliberately induce rising prices, causing inflation. Rising prices provide an essential lubricant for any sustained recovery because businesses increase profits and take some of the depressive pressures off wages and debtors of every kind.

Deflationary periods can be both short or long, relatively speaking. Japan, for example, had a period of deflation lasting decades starting in the early 1990’s. The Japanese government lowered interest rates to try and stimulate inflation, to no avail. Zero interest rate policy was ended in July of 2006.

 

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bloomberg: What is one thing making life a little easier on a Federal Reserve wrestling with the “mystery” of low inflation? At least traders don’t expect inflation’s evil cousin — deflation — to show up to the party any time soon.

The cost of an inflation floor that compensates its holder should the annual change in the consumer price index dip into negative territory a year down the road has fallen below a cent — its cheapest level since May 2011, when crude oil futures reached $100 per barrel.

The latest leg of softness in the U.S. dollar inflation floor swap isn’t likely related to the synchronized global expansion or confidence about the outlook for growth, but rather reflects the expected short-term effects the hurricanes will have on U.S. pricing pressures via select commodities.

marketwatch: Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says the recent slowdown in U.S. inflation is a “mystery,” but she and her colleagues are not mystified enough to keep borrowing costs as low as they are now.

The central bank on Wednesday said it will begin to shrink its huge $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October and it signaled plans for one more increase in interest rates before year end. Both moves are part of an effort to raise borrowing costs in the U.S. for loans tied to cars, mortgages and business loans.

The Fed’s approach has been criticized by some groups such as the labor giant AFL-CIO as potentially harmful to Americans who still can’t find work. Higher interest rates could potentially slow growth and hiring if they rise too quickly.

Also Read: Still on course: Fed signals one more rate hike in 2017

Why is the Fed sticking to its guns?

A majority of senior officials are still convinced inflation will rise again soon, stoked in part by an uber-tight labor market. The unemployment rate recently touched a 16-year low of 4.3%, a level typically associated in the past with higher inflation.

Higher inflation is also a big threat, and if the Fed lets it get out of hand, senior officials believe the damage to the economy could be even greater than the benefits of keeping interest rates low. It’s an argument largely supported by Wall Street.

Yet there little’s evidence to suggest a return to past inflationary trends. The 12-month rate of inflation measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, for instance, fell to 1.4% in July from a five-year high of 2.2% in February. Now it stands well below the Fed’s 2% target for inflation.

That’s nothing new. The Fed has repeatedly fallen short in its goal to boost inflation to 2% — and keep it there. Inflation has only topped 2% a few times, and just briefly, in the last nine years.

It was supposed to be different in 2017. The creation of 17 million jobs since 2010 and a sinking unemployment rate were expected to trigger a sustained upturn in worker pay and push inflation to 2% or higher. Instead the opposite has happened.

The recent shortfall in inflation “is more of a mystery,” Yellen acknowledged in a press conference Wednesday after the Fed announced its latest steps. Later she used the term “mysterious.”

Or is it? At other times in her press conference Yellen seemed confident inflation would rise again soon. She suggested inflation has been depressed by a bevy of developments that have either faded away or will do so shortly.

Throughout most of the eight-year-old economic recovery, she said, inflation was kept in check by low gas prices, high unemployment and a strong dollar that kept the cost of imports down. True enough.

More recently, she added, the slowdown in inflation was caused by large but temporary price drops in key consumer goods such as prescription drugs and cell-phone plans. That’s also true, but the price of medical care has leveled off, food prices are barely rising and gas is still fairly cheap.

No matter. The Fed is simply unwilling to see just how low the unemployment rate can go without stoking higher inflation. The bank thinks the current jobless rate, at 4.4%, is already enough to add to price pressures.

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Demographic change will have big economic impacts

THE population of the developed world is ageing. Everyone knows that it is happening but no one is sure what it will mean. A new paper from Morgan Stanley, part-written by Charles Goodhart, a former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, along with Manoj Pradhan and Pratyancha Pardeshi, suggests there may be dramatic economic impacts.

In particular, the paper suggests that the greying population may reverse three long-term trends: a decline in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates, a squeeze on real wages and widening inequality. That is because those trends were driven by previous demographic shifts; first, the entry of the baby boomers into the workforce after 1970 and second, the more than doubling of the globally integrated workforce as China and eastern Europe joined the capitalist system.

This rise in the labour force produced downward pressure on real wages. It also led to slower improvements in productivity, particularly in Europe. As Mr Goodhart writes, “As labour cheapens, managers spend less effort and invest less capital in order to raise productivity.”

The falling cost of labour also produced downward pressure on the prices of manufactured goods, especially as companies relocated to Asia and eastern Europe. This created deflationary pressures, allowing central banks to ease monetary policy. China’s relatively closed financial system and lack of a social safety net created a savings glut that added to the downward pressure on real interest rates. In turn, lower real rates pushed up asset prices which, along with the pressure on wages, added to inequality since financial assets tend to be owned by the better-off.

But population growth in the rich world, which was 1% a year in the 1950s, has fallen to 0.5% and should drop to zero by 2040. Some countries will see declining populations before then. Crucially, the share of the population formed by those of working age is already starting to fall. Indeed, Mr Goodhart reckons that the ageing population will create additional demand for labour, as illnesses such as dementia will require more care workers. This will start to push real wages higher, raising labour’s share of national income and reducing inequality.

Real interest rates balance the desired level of savings with the desired level of investment. The elderly save less and spend more of their income than the middle-aged, as a natural part of the life cycle. But even the middle-aged will not save enough, Mr Goodhart says, either because they underestimate the amount they will need for a comfortable retirement or because they expect to depend on the state.

If that analysis shows that savings are bound to fall, what about investment? In a slow-growing economy, there will be fewer profitable investment opportunities. But Mr Goodhart argues that investment will not fall as fast as savings and thus real rates will rise.

What is his rationale? Most investment by households is in the form of housing. The old are usually reluctant to move out of the homes they bought when middle-aged, even though their children have moved out. This will make it more difficult for families to find the space they need; that means residential investment will not fall significantly. As for investment by firms, rising wages will encourage companies to substitute capital for labour. Corporate investment could rise.

The thesis is vulnerable to other changes in the economy. The labour force could be boosted by greater participation by women and the elderly, or by immigration—although Mr Goodhart does not think these factors will be sufficient to compensate for the effect of ageing. The less educated, for example, find it harder to stay in the workforce beyond 65.

This last point also raises the question of whether inequality will fall as he predicts. Demography has not been the only factor behind widening inequality: many economists point to “skill-biased” technological change as a driving force. Low-skilled workers who can be replaced by computers or robots will be more vulnerable in a world of rising real wages; the computer-literate will still command premium salaries.

The people who would most like Mr Goodhart to be right are probably mainstream politicians. The sluggish performance of real wages in advanced economies, along with the signs of rising inequality, have caused them to lose votes to parties on their left and right. If these trends go into reverse, voters might be a bit more content. But the change might not occur fast enough to save some political careers.

Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood

Moore inflation predictor-reality-Jan-2015-Aug

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stephen ROACH

OCT 27, 2015 5

The Wrong War for Central Banking

BEIJING – Fixated on inflation targeting in a world without inflation, central banks have lost their way. With benchmark interest rates stuck at the dreaded zero bound, monetary policy has been transformed from an agent of price stability into an engine of financial instability. A new approach is desperately needed.

The US Federal Reserve exemplifies this policy dilemma. After the Federal Open Market Committee decided in September to defer yet again the start of its long-awaited normalization of monetary policy, its inflation doves are openly campaigning for another delay.

For the inflation-targeting purists, the argument seems impeccable. The headline consumer-price index (CPI) is near zero, and “core” or underlying inflation – the Fed’s favorite indicator – remains significantly below the seemingly sacrosanct 2% target. With a long-anemic recovery looking shaky again, the doves contend that there is no reason to rush ahead with interest-rate hikes.

Of course, there is more to it than that. Because monetary policy operates with lags, central banks must avoid fixating on the here and now, and instead use imperfect forecasts to anticipate the future effects of their decisions. In the Fed’s case, the presumption that the US will soon approach full employment has caused the so-called dual mandate to collapse into one target: getting inflation back to 2%.

Here, the Fed is making a fatal mistake, as it relies heavily on a timeworn inflation-forecasting methodology that filters out the “special factors” driving the often volatile prices of goods like food and energy. The logic is that the price fluctuations will eventually subside, and headline price indicators will converge on the core rate of inflation.

This approach failed spectacularly when it was adopted in the 1970s, causing the Fed tounderestimate virulent inflation. And it is failing today, leading the Fed consistently too overestimate underlying inflation. Indeed, with oil prices having plunged by 50% over the past year, the Fed stubbornly maintains that faster price growth – and the precious inflation rate of 2% – is just around the corner.

Missing from this logic is an appreciation of the new and powerful global forces that are bearing down on inflation. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook, the price deflator for all advanced economies should increase by just 1.5% annually, on average, from now to 2020 – not much higher than the crisis-depressed 1.1% pace of the last six years. Moreover, most wholesale prices around the world remain in outright deflation.

But, rather than recognize the likely drivers of these developments – namely, a seemingly chronic shortfall of global aggregate demand amid a supply glut and a deflationary profusion of technological innovations and new supply chains – the Fed continues to minimize the deflationary impact of global forces. It would rather attribute low inflation to successful inflation targeting, and the Great Moderation that it presumably spawned.

This prideful interpretation amounted to the siren song of an extremely accommodative monetary policy. Unable to disentangle the global and domestic pressures suppressing inflation, a price-targeting Fed has erred consistently on the side of easy money.

This is apparent in the fact that, over the last 15 years, the real federal funds rate – the Fed’s benchmark policy rate, adjusted for inflation – has been in negative territory more than 60% of the time, averaging -0.6% since May 2001. From 1990 to 2000, by contrast, the real federal funds rate averaged 2.2%. In short, over the last decade and a half, the Fed has gone well beyond a powerful disinflation in setting its policy interest rate.

The consequences have been problematic, to say the least. Over the same 15-year period, financial markets have become unhinged, with a profusion of asset and credit bubbles leading to a series of crises that almost pushed the world economy into the abyss in 2008-2009. But rather than recognize, let alone respond to, pre-crisis excesses, the Fed has remained agnostic about them, pointing out that bubble-spotting is, at best, an imperfect science.

That is hardly a convincing reason for central banks to remain fixated on inflation targeting. Not only have they failed repeatedly to get the inflation forecast right; they now risk fueling renewed financial instability and sparking another crisis. Just as a few of us warned of impending crisis in the 2003-2006 period, some – including the Bank of International Settlements and the IMF are sounding the alarm today, but to no avail.

To be sure, inflation targeting was once essential to limit runaway price growth. In today’s inflationless world, however, it is counterproductive. Yet the inflation targeters who dominate today’s major central banks insist on fighting yesterday’s war.

In this sense, modern central bankers resemble the British army in the Battle of Singapore in 1942. Convinced that the Japanese would attack from the sea, the British defenses were encased in impenetrable concrete bunkers, with fixed artillery that could fire only to the south. So when the Japanese emerged from the jungle and mangrove swamps of the Malay Peninsula in the north, the British were powerless to stop them. Singapore quickly fell, in what is widely considered Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s most ignominious military defeat.

Central bankers, like the British army in Singapore, are aiming their weapons in the wrong direction. It is time for them to turn their policy arsenal toward today’s enemy: financial instability. On that basis alone, the case for monetary-policy normalization has never been more compelling.

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bloomberg: As the world’s top central bankers gather in Wyoming this week, their relief about a stronger global economy will be tempered by a growing unease that inflation remains inexplicably low.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be among the officials addressing this year’s installment of the annual conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed. The summit, held at a Jackson Hole mountain retreat, comes as central banks in advanced economies creep toward the policy exit after years of unprecedented easing, even with outlooks are clouded by stubbornly tepid inflation.

Prices have been slow to pick up despite solid growth and falling unemployment, suggesting that the long-observed relationship between inflation and labor-market slack might have frayed. That puzzle will likely surface as the conference debates this year’s theme of “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy” against the backdrop of the Grand Teton mountains.

“Inflation has been the big question mark, both here and abroad,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. in New York.

Yellen will speak about financial stability at 8 a.m. local time (10 a.m. in New York) on Aug. 25. Draghi will take the podium at 1 p.m. His remarks will focus on the theme of the conference, an ECB spokesman said, responding to speculation over whether the Italian might choose to send a policy signal on the central bank’s bond-buying program.

Advanced economies face common challenges that range from rising asset valuations to the uneven effects of globalization that galvanized the populism behind Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. It’s a lot easier to solve these problems with faster growth.

QuickTakes Make Sense of World Shaken by Trump, Brexit, Populism

“What we’re trying to analyze is — how do we improve growth?” Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told reporters in Lubbock, Texas, on Thursday, when asked about Jackson Hole.

Still, inflation may be the most pressing riddle facing central banks, which are failing to meet their price mandates.

U.S. inflation fell to 1.4 percent in June, based on the Fed’s preferred gauge, and consumer prices in the euro area — currently at 1.3 percent — have wavered since the start of the year. Both central banks shoot for 2 percent inflation, although the ECB formally aims below, but close to, that level.

Those glacial price gains come even as unemployment has dropped steadily, more than halving in the U.S. to 4.3 percent since its post-recession peak and declining to 9.1 percent from a high of 12.1 percent in the euro area. Inflation is also low in Japan, though sub-par price gains have been a longer-lived issue there.

While the Bank of Japan hasn’t confirmed Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s schedule, he’s attended Jackson Hole every year since becoming chief in 2013. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney plans to skip the event.

The slow progress on inflation suggests that the Phillips Curve — a relationship where low joblessness begets higher prices — may no longer operate. If central bank leaders reaffirm their belief that it will start to work, that would be a sign of confidence that price gains are coming.

Jackson Hole almost guarantees market-important information, and this year “I would bet it has to do with inflation,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. “Inflation is the biggest — and the discussion of the Phillips Curve is the second-biggest — economic issue that has policy implications.”

The Fed has already signaled that it will probably get moving on unwinding it’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet in September, and Yellen could solidify that view. Still, if the Fed chair signals any uncertainty over her inflation outlook, it could cast doubt on the Fed’s projection for one more interest-rate increase this year.

Draghi, who will have spoken in Lindau, Germany, on Wednesday before traveling to Wyoming, will be a key focus on policy-watchers’ attention.

The ECB is entering a crucial phase of its battle to restore euro-area price stability. It was in Jackson Hole three years ago that Draghi laid the groundwork for its 2.3 trillion-euro ($2.7 trillion) bond-buying program.

The region’s recovery has gathered pace since the start of the year, allowing officials to pledge to start talks this fall about a strategy for 2018 that could include gradually reducing purchases to zero.

Yet policy makers also appear uncertain about how fast to proceed. That’s become more evident since a Draghi speech in late June, in which he referred to reflationary forces, sent the euro higher. At the ECB’s Governing Council meeting on July 20, officials expressed concern over the potential for an exchange-rate overshoot that undermines the economic revival.

The single currency has risen more than 5 percent on a trade-weighted basis this year and has gained 12 percent against the dollar. It was at $1.1736 at 8:32 a.m. Frankfurt time.

“As the ECB signals that it is gradually approaching the exit, euro appreciation could be provoked, which will flatten the expected recovery in inflation and thereby reduce the probability of exit,” said London-based Deutsche Bank economist Mark Wall.

Draghi may therefore choose to strike a cautious tone — expressing optimism over the economy but steering clear of signaling his thoughts on tapering until Sept. 7, when the Governing Council meets and he holds a press conference.

Yellen’s action, as the Fed leads the way in unwinding emergency-era policies, may also be a key determinant for the ECB as it crafts the timeline for its own removal of stimulus, said Claus Vistesen, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in Newcastle, U.K.

As the Fed starts to move, “it gives the ECB room, with a lag, to move as well,” Vistesen said.

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Kapasitas produksi perusahaan di Indonesia yang masih sekitar 76 persen menyebabkan inflasi yang rendah tahun ini tidak sepenuhnya positif bagi Indonesia.

Perry Warjiyo, Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) mengatakan inflasi yang tetap terkendali, bahkan lebih rendah dari perkiraan, dikarenakan permintaan (demand) masyarakat domestik yang masih rendah walaupun sudah ada sinyal perbaikan.

Hal ini dikarenakan perbaikan permintaan itu didasarkan pada basis produksi (supply) yang lebih rendah dari kapasitas maksimalnya. Pasalnya, saat ini, kapasitas produksi dari perusahaan secara keseluruhan masih sekitar 76%.

“Kenaikan permintaan dalam negeri itu masih jauh dari produksi yang ada. Istilahnya kesenjangan output yang negatif itu memang masih besar. Sehingga dorongan dari sisi permintaan dari inflasi itu masih tetap lemah,” katanya.

BI, katanya, memproyeksi tingkat inflasi tahun ini berada di level 3,1% (year on year/yoy). Selain sangat dekat dengan batas bawah sasaran inflasi otoritas 4% ± 1%, angka ini jauh dari asumsi yang ada dalam APBNP 2016 sebesar 4%.

Selain itu, pihaknya berujar ada ekspektasi inflasi yang terjaga rendah. Indikator ini dinilai sebagai bagian dari kredibilitas kebijakan pemerintah dan BI. Namun demikian, memang ada faktor harga komoditas yang masih rendah kendati sudah ada perbaikan.

Tambahan apresiasi dari nilai tukar rupiah beberapa waktu terakhir, sambungnya, membuat variableimported inflation juga rendah. Pada September 2016, inflasi inti stabil di level 3,21% (yoy) dan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) secara keseluruhan tercatat 3,07% (yoy).

Perry berujar pengendalian harga pangan yang dilakukan antara BI dengan pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah juga berhasil. Pada bulan lalu, kelompok volatile food tercatat mengalami deflasi sebesar 0,09% (month to month) yang bersumber dari koreksi harga beberapa komoditas pangan.

Rendahnya tingkat inflasi, lanjutnya, masih akan terjadi tahun depan. Pihaknya memproyeksi tingkat inflasi pada 2017 sekitar 3,5%, naik tipis dari proyeksi tahun ini. Kenaikan tarif dasar listrik (TDL) memang akan menyulut inflasi, tetapi hanya tomporer.

Atas performa dan outlook tersebut, dia tidak menjelaskan sehat atau tidaknya tingkat inflasi. Namun, performa tersebut mendukung adanya stabilitas ekonomi nasional sehingga membuat Otoritas Moneter kembali melonggarkan kebijakannya dengan memangkas BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 4,75%.
BISNIS.COM

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ft.com: Hedge fund manager David Einhorn has long been optimistic about the prospects for gold, largely out of scepticism over central bank actions in the developed world. “We believe the increasingly adventurous monetary policy is bullish for gold,” he wrote in a letter to investors on May 2 covering a quarter in which the gold price shot up.

Today, more investors are coming to share that scepticism. The markets no longer dance to the tunes set by Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi and even less to that of Haruhiko Kuroda. For years since central banks launched their unconventional monetary policies, many investors believed the result would be massive inflation and that, as paper money lost its value, gold would be the safest haven.

For years they were wrong.

Even though there may be a lot more paper money in the world today, the velocity of that money hasn’t picked up. There is too much capacity relative to demand. The threat of deflation rather than inflation has been the scourge.

But might that be starting to change?

Inflation plays are once more becoming popular. Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen 20 per cent to about $1,300. But the enthusiasm for gold is just one of several signs the market is starting to shift from its preoccupation with deflationary prospects. For example, there have now been 11 straight weeks of inflows into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, according to research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

While the world remains plagued by a combination of excess capacity and inadequate demand despite (or perhaps precisely because of) these central bank policies, there are several reasons to believe the case for trades guarding against higher inflation will strengthen.

Part of the reason the world underestimated the deflationary impulse globally had to do with the immense expansion of productive capacity in China, which outpaced not only domestic demand on the mainland (despite rising incomes there), but appetite from virtually all of its export markets. For over three years, deflation as measured by the producer price index quickened. Now, though, some business figures, such as Fosun chief executive Liang Xinjun, believe the worst deflationary pressures are beginning to subside.

Reform in China is all about eliminating excess capacity. While the ratcheting up of credit growth and investment suggests that reform will happen only slowly and carefully, the ultimate effect will be to raise prices for manufactured goods globally — which few outside observers have factored into their calculations. Consumers in the west, among the biggest beneficiaries of price drops in everything from smartphones to sofas, may find these items will become more expensive.

At the same time, a sagging dollar will exaggerate the impact of the end of such bargain pricing.

This past week, the dollar touched a 15-month low, another reason that inflationary fears in the US are rising. It is not clear why the dollar is expected to drop further, since the failure to raise rates in the US should be a less powerful force in currency markets than the determination of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to drive their currencies ever lower. Either way, the foreign exchange markets continue to thwart central bank intentions regarding euro and yen levels.

The markets also fear that as US unemployment drops and payroll data improve, wages will be another source of inflationary pressure. After all, weekly jobless claims in April touched the lowest level since 1973.

Still, so far, outright fears of inflation have not materialised. But it is increasingly plausible to argue that they will.

Cities and some states such as California, New York and Washington are considering adopting increases in minimum wages. Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, is now supporting such measures. Wage growth and lack of productivity growth is a formula for more inflation as well.

To be sure, there are some who argue the case for slowing growth or even recession in the US is stronger than any risk of sustained inflation. This camp believes the next move in US interest rates will be down rather than up.

However, given the stirring of US inflation, perhaps the safest best bet of all for investors is to position themselves for more volatility.

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bloomberg view: By

It’s been a year since a sudden, 1.9 percent decline in the Chinese yuan rattled global markets and prompted fears of a global currency war. China has mostly soothed nerves by moderating the renminbi’s swoon since then. But what should really put minds to rest is the knowledge that no one — not even China, which arguably did power its rise, at least in part, on the back of an artificially depressed yuan — could win a true currency war today.

Currency War

The temptation to gain an advantage over competitors with a cheaper currency hasn’t diminished, of course. First and foremost, devaluation holds out the promise of boosting exports by making them less expensive. Where a country has substantial external borrowing in its own currency, a weaker currency also engineers a transfer of wealth from foreign savers, as the value of those securities falls in dollar terms. Devaluation may also stimulate inflation as the higher cost of imported products pushes up price levels.

In recent years, governments have refrained from intervening directly in currency markets, preferring to use monetary policy to help drive down the value of their currencies. These policies — on display most notably in Japan and Europe — are supposedly intended to increase demand. But households and companies have proven reluctant to borrow more to finance consumption or investment. Instead, low and in some cases negative rates have served to reduce the cost of servicing debt and, by encouraging capital flight, to create pressure on the currency.

It’s not clear, however, that this strategy of implicit devaluation can achieve any wider benefits. For one thing, a weaker currency no longer guarantees an increase in exports. External demand remains sluggish because of the slowdown in global growth. Trade growth has slowed sharply since 2014.

Moreover, the complexity of today’s global supply chains, with production spread across multiple countries, undermines the advantages of a weakened currency. When the yen was strong, Japanese carmakers relocated plants to cheaper locations abroad; they’re not going to move those factories back home unless convinced that the yen isn’t going to strengthen once again. Recent estimatesfrom the World Bank suggest that falling currencies were only half as effective in increasing exports between 2004 and 2012 as they were in the prior eight years.

In many countries, exports also matter much less than they did before. The U.S. in particular is relatively self-contained, with imports and exports together accounting for around 20 percent of GDP. While Europe is more exposed to trade, most takes place within the free-trade area, where many nations share a single currency. China’s external exposure is complex as it now acts mostly as a manufacturing or assembly hub, using domestic labor to convert imported components into intermediate or finished products. A lower yuan thus has less impact on economic activity than previously.

Key sectors such as advanced manufacturing, information technologies, pharmaceuticals and entertainment are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations due to high intellectual property content, limited competition and the prevalence of long-term contracts. Services, which are playing an increasingly important role in China and elsewhere, are mostly local: One in four U.S. manufacturing jobs is linked to trade, whereas only around 6 percent of jobs in services are similarly affected.

And countries have simply gotten better at defending against artificially cheapened goods. They now deploy a range of covert trade restrictions, from highly restrictive procurement policies to local-content provisions that favor national suppliers. Many offer subsidies and preferential financing to domestic manufacturers. In 2015, the number of discriminatory measures introduced by governments rose 50 percent from the year before, of which G20 countries accounted for over 80 percent.

Finally, it’s important to remember that other factors may offset any advantages gained from devaluation. Currency volatility and uncertainty tend to discourage long-term business investment. A weaker currency also reduces the purchasing power of citizens. The euro has lost over 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar since 2011, effectively slashing the income and wealth of euro-zone consumers. Australians, heavily dependent on imports, have lost a similar amount of purchasing power. Combined with stagnating incomes, this only cuts further into global demand.

A currency war is winnable only if a single country resorts to devaluation. Every nation can’t by definition simultaneously have the cheapest currency. That doesn’t mean countries won’t try to gain an advantage over competitors. But their chances of succeeding are lower than ever before.

 Emoticons0051

What Deflationary Spiral? Global Core Inflation Running At Post-2000 Highs

By Steve Johnson at Financial Times

Everybody knows the world is battling against extremely low inflation, with central banks in the US, UK, eurozone and Japan having spent trillions of dollars on quantitative easing in an attempt to fend off the spectre of deflation.

The latest leg down in oil prices to below $30 a barrel has reignited such fears. But even stripping this out, central banks across much of the world (with the notable exception of the US) are so worried about a perceived lack of domestic inflationary pressures that projections of future monetary policy are becoming ever looser.

Yet inflation, by one key measure at least, is not low at all. In fact it is rather high.

Global core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, and is thus a better gauge of domestic inflation pressures than the headline number, is currently running close to historic highs.

At 2.4 per cent in December, this measure of inflation has only been higher once since 2000 — in July-September 2008, when it peaked at 2.5 per cent, according to calculations by JPMorgan, as the first chart shows.

Earlier this week the Bureau of Labor Statistics said US core consumer price inflation rose to 2.1 per cent in December, its highest level since July 2012.

This is despite a 24.4 per cent jump in the dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, since June 2014, a rise that would be expected to reduce the price of US imports, putting downward pressure on inflation.

Moreover, core inflation has risen even though weak oil prices have led to lower prices for some elements of the core CPI basket, such as airline fares, which fell 1.1 per cent in December, notes Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit.

Despite the elevated US reading, David Hensley, a JPMorgan economist, says the core inflationary pressures in developed economies are “low to moderate”.

Instead, the unusually elevated global core inflation levels are being driven by trends in emerging markets.

In countries such as Brazil, Russia, Turkey and, to some extent, South Africa, “extreme currency pressures” are pushing inflation higher, as falling currencies raise import prices.

It is important to note that, while true, this cannot explain the unusually high global core inflation reading. Foreign exchange markets are a zero-sum game, so currency weakness in some countries (and thus a tendency towards higher inflation) must be balanced by currency strength (and thus the likelihood of lower inflation) elsewhere.

Mr Hensley also points to the impact of tax increases “that are associated with [economic] stress and are transitory [in their affect on inflation]”.

Stripping out these countries, Mr Hensley says core inflation levels across the rest of the emerging world are “kinda average”.

However, this finding may be more interesting still. “Emerging market growth rates have been slowing year by year. They are creating slack and should be seeing core inflation rates coming down and that is not happening,” says Mr Hensley, who argues that this “stubbornness” in inflation is a major issue for EM governments to tackle.

According to JPMorgan, this stickiness in inflation is particularly prevalent across Latin America, which the exception of Mexico and Asia, excepting India and Indonesia, while there are also pockets to be found in the eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa region.

Mr Hensley cites the example of Brazil where, even in periods when a plunging currency is not pushing up import prices, the country suffers from “very high wage inflation and an embedded inflation problem that is to some extent mirrored across Latam”.

For instance, between 2009 and 2011, when the real rose 30 per cent against the dollar, pushing down the prices of imported goods, inflation was still around 5-6 per cent.

JPMorgan does expect global core inflation to dip marginally in the coming months, reaching 2.3 per cent by the year end, although this would still be “near the high end of its range over the past 15 years”.

However, the US bank expects to see a “sharp rise” in headline consumer price inflation in the second half of 2016, “based on the simple arithmetic that, as long as oil prices do not fall another 40 per cent, this downward pressure should fade quickly,” as the impact of the earlier slide in energy prices drops out of the inflation equation.

JPMorgan expects global inflation to bottom at 1.5 per cent in June, but hit 2.6 per cent by December, as the first chart indicates.

Analysts at RBC Capital are also expecting higher headline inflation, with price pressures in the US strong enough to usher in four interest rate rises this year, compared with the two currently priced in by the market.

More broadly “the majority of commodity importers may experience a more significant increase in headline inflation, between 100 basis points and 200bp,” says Daniel Tenengauzer, head of EM and global FX strategy at RBC.

Like JPMorgan, RBC sees inflation being particularly notable in emerging markets.

Based on its analysis of past inflation trends, RBC forecasts that, over the course of the next 12 months, inflation will rise from 1.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent in China, from 5.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent in India, from 2.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent in Mexico and from 0.9 per cent to 2.9 per cent in Hungary, as the second chart shows.

Countries that are currently suffering deflation of between 0.7 and 0.9 per cent, such as Israel, Poland and Thailand will instead be seeing inflation of 1.7 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent by December, it predicts.

RBC does foresee a fall in inflation in a minority of major emerging markets, such as Brazil and Russia, where inflation is currently in double digits, and Turkey, where it is 8.8 per cent.

Overall though, Mr Tenengauzer foresees a higher overall trend in inflation, with particular concerns over India, where he fears the central bank may not react to higher inflation, and Turkey, which may now have missed the opportunity that low oil prices afforded it to bring inflation down towards the central bank’s 5 per cent target.

new chin year dragon 01

by Roubini:

Roubini is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

It is likely to stay with us in 2016 and well beyond

The world economy has had a rough start in 2016, and it will continue to be characterized by a new abnormal: in the behavior of growth, of economic policies, of inflation and of key asset prices and financial markets.

First, potential growth in developed markets and emerging markets has fallen, and actual growth will remain below this weak potential. That potential has fallen because of the burden of high private and public debt, population aging—older people tend to save more and invest less—and a variety of uncertainties that keep capital spending low. Meanwhile, technological innovations haven’t translated yet into higher productivity growth at the aggregate level, while structural reforms aren’t moving fast enough to increase potential growth. There’s also “hysteresis”—the way that protracted cyclical stagnation can weigh down potential growth, since human and physical capital become more obsolete if they aren’t used at full capacity.

What actual growth we’ve seen has been anemic, below its potential as a painful process of deleveraging has been under way, first in the U.S., then in Europe and now in emerging markets, to stabilize and reduce high levels of private and public debts and deficits.

At the same time, economic policies—especially ­monetary—have become increasingly unconventional, and the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy has become more blurred. Ten years ago, who had heard of terms such as ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy), QE (quantitative easing), CE (credit easing), or UFXInt (unsterilized FX intervention)? These esoteric and unconventional monetary-policy tools are now the norm in most advanced economies, and even some emerging market ones as well.

Some critics incorrectly argued that these unconventional monetary policies—and the accompanying mushrooming of the balance sheet of central banks, which they saw as an alleged form of debasement of fiat currencies—would lead to hyperinflation, a collapse in the value of the U.S. dollar, a sharp rise in long-term interest rates and the price of gold and other commodities, even the replacement of standard currencies with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Yet none of that happened—inflation is still too low and falling in advanced economies, while long-term interest rates have kept on falling in the past few years. The value of the dollar has surged at historic rates even as commodity prices have fallen sharply—with gold dropping by some 25% in 2015—even as Bitcoin has been the worst-performing currency in 2014–15, if one could even call it a currency.

In spite of the ballooning balance sheets of central banks and the unconventional policies that were supposed to debase fiat currencies, inflation is too low and falling in advanced economies, and even in many emerging markets. Central banks now need to try to avoid low-flation, if not outright deflation. The traditional connection between the money supply and prices—as more money is pushed into the system, prices should go up—has collapsed for two reasons. One, banks are hoarding the additional supply of money in the form of excess reserves rather than lending it. Two, there is still a lot of slack in many countries. Goods markets have large output gaps, with the excess capacity now exacerbated by the overinvestment by China. In labor markets, unemployment rates are still too high and workers have too little wage bargaining power. That slack is clear in real estate markets in countries that had a housing boom and bust, and now in commodity markets where the prices of oil, energy and other raw materials have collapsed thanks to various factors, including the slowdown of China, the surge of supply in energy and industrial metals thanks to new discoveries and overinvestment in new capacity, as well as a strong dollar that weakens the price of commodities.

Real interest rates are very low and many asset prices too high relative to their underlying fundamental value in equities, real estate, credit and government bonds. We have negative nominal interest rates at the policy level in most of Europe—including the euro zone, Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden. There are now over $2 trillion equivalent of government bonds at maturities all the way to 10 or 20 years that provide a negative nominal yield in the euro zone, the rest of Europe and Japan. Why would investors lend to governments at a negative nominal yield for 10 years when they could instead hold cash and at least earn a zero yield?

It is indeed a new abnormal for growth, inflation, monetary policies and asset prices—and it is likely to stay with us in 2016 and well beyond.

infobank: oleh Agung Galih Satwiko
JUMLAH nominal obligasi negara maju, khususnya di Eropa dan Jepang yang memberikan imbal hasil negatif, pada awal tahun 2016 menyentuh rekor baru. Jika pada pertengahan tahun 2014 lalu jumlah nominal obligasi negara yang memberikan imbal hasil negatif masih di bawah USD500 miliar, dan pada pertengahan 2015 masih di sekitar USD1 triliun, maka per tanggal 9 Februari 2016 lalu jumlah ini sudah mencapai USD7 triliun (sumber: Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index). Kenaikan ini tentu sangat signifikan.

Data yield obligasi negara minggu lalu menunjukkan bahwa yield obligasi negara Swiss untuk tenor 1 tahun sampai 15 tahun sudah menyentuh level negatif (yield 10 tahun sebesar -0,39%). Sementara yield Japan Government Bonds (JGB) semua tenor sampai tenor 10 tahun sudah menyentuh level negatif (yield 10 tahun sebesar -0,06%). Yield German Bunds sudah menyentuh level negatif untuk semua tenor sampai dengan tenor 8 tahun (yield 10 tahun sebesar 0,15%). Yieldobligasi negara Pemerintah Prancis telah menjadi negatif sampai tenor 5 tahun (yield 5 tahun sebesar -0,09%, 10 tahun sebesar 0,52%). Rekor yield obligasi negara terendah masih dipegang oleh Swiss yaitu sebesar minus 1,07% untuk tenor dua tahun, minggu lalu.

Penurunan yield hingga menjadi negative tersebut tidak hanya disebabkan oleh turunnya tingkat bunga bank sentral di negara Eropa (yang terakhir adalah ECB dan Swedish Riksbank) dan Jepang, namun juga akibat sentimen pelaku pasar modal yang banyak mengambil posisi aman dengan membeli safe haven asset dalam kondisi volatilitas pasar keuangan global, pelambatan ekonomi di negara berkembang dan China, serta jatuhnya harga komoditas dan minyak.

Implikasi negative yield bagi investor adalah secara praktis investor membayar mahal dengan premium yang tinggi untuk membeli obligasi negara tersebut namun menghasilkan total returnyang lebih rendah dibandingkan investasi awal. Dengan kata lain investor justru kehilangan uang atau menerima lebih rendah dari yang diinvestasikannya, jika membeli obligasi negara denganyield negatif dan memegangnya sampai jatuh tempo. Hal ini dengan asumsi reinvestment rate, yaitu tingkat bunga reinvestasi kupon yang diterima, sama dengan yield to maturity.

Jadi semisal suatu obligasi negara memiliki kupon 1% per tahun dengan sisa tenor 10 tahun, investor yang membeli obligasi tersebut dengan yield -0,5% harus membayar USD115,4 per USD100 par. Berapa yang akan diterima jika investor tersebut menahan sampai jatuh tempo? Dengan asumsi reinvestment rate sama dengan yield yaitu sebesar -0,5%, maka sampai akhir jatuh tempo keseluruhan jumlah yang akan diperoleh investor adalah sebesar 109,8, lebih rendah dibandingkan nominal USD100 ditambah USD10 kupon (USD1 per pembayaran kupon, 10 kali) atau USD110. Investor menderita kerugian sebesar USD115,4 dikurangi USD109,8 yaitu USD5,6 untuk investasinya tersebut.

Bagaimana agar investor untung saat membeli obligasi negara dengan yield negatif? Terdapat dua cara, yaitu yang pertama reinvestment rate harus tinggi, dan yang kedua yield harus terus menjadi semakin negatif dan investor menjualnya sebelum jatuh tempo (membukukan capital gain).Reinvestment rate yang tinggi merupakan pilihan yang sulit karena dalam kondisi saat ini tidak banyak alternatif investasi yang aman dengan tingkat imbal hasil yang tinggi. Dalam contoh di atas, agar breakeven, investor harus mencari instrumen investasi yang memberikan reinvestment rate sebesar 9,3%, yang mana sulit diperoleh dalam kondisi tingkat bunga rendah saat ini.

Dengan demikian, dalam kondisi saat ini yang paling memungkinkan bagi investor yang membeli obligasi negara dengan yield negatif dan mengharapkan keuntungan adalah dengan menjual sebelum jatuh tempo dalam kondisi yield yang terus turun dan memperoleh capital gain. Itupun investor masih dihadapkan pada kenyataan bahwa uang yang diperolehnya dari hasil penjualan tersebut masih harus diinvestasikan pada obligasi negara dengan yield yang sudah semakin negatif.

Dalam kondisi saat ini sejatinya tidak banyak investor yang mengharapkan akan keuntungan dari investasi di obligasi negara dengan yield negatif, karena motivasi utama investor adalah agar dana kelolaannya aman. Investor yang menginvestasikan dananya di pasar saham berpotensi memberikan kerugian yang lebih besar daripada jika berinvestasi di obligasi negara dengan yieldnegatif. Motivasi ini yang membuat investor kemudian semakin banyak mengoleksi obligasi negara dengan yield negatif, yang tentu akan membuat yield obligasi negara menjadi semakin negatif. Bagi investor, kerugian sebesar 10 lebih baik daripada kerugian sebesar 50. Return sebesar -0,5% lebih baik daripada investasi di Shanghai Composite yang memberikan return -21% year to date2016.

Selain itu terdapat pula fund manager yang mengelola dananya dengan mengacu pada benchmarkkelompok obligasi negara maju. Dengan demikian berapapun yield yang ditawarkan harus diambil agar komposisi investasinya tidak berubah. Bagi fund manager dan investor di belakangnya, ketepatan atau kesesuaian return portofolio dana kelolaan dengan benchmark lebih relevan dibandingkan besarnya return itu sendiri. Di sisi lain terdapat pula investor yang menerapkanbarbell strategy, yaitu membeli obligasi negara tenor pendek yang memberikan yield negatif dan mengombinasikannya dengan obligasi tenor panjang yang masih memberikan yield positif.

Negative bond yield juga menunjukkan proyeksi pesimis pelaku pasar dan stakeholder terkait terhadap kondisi perkonomian ke depan. Terdapat potensi pelambatan ekonomi ke depan yang berdampak pada meningkatnya risiko default korporasi dan juga deflasi. Jika negative bond yieldditandingkan dengan tingkat deflasi yang lebih besar, maka real return akan positif. Investor masih akan memperoleh real return yang positif dengan membeli obligasi negara dengan yieldnegatif.

Apa dampak bagi Indonesia? Seharusnya secara logika penurunan yield obligasi negara di negara maju akan membuat yield obligasi negara dalam valas ikut turun. Dan memang data menunjukkan hal tersebut. Yield obligasi negara dalam USD yang jatuh tempo 8 Januari 2026 (tenor 10 tahun) dengan kupon 4,75%, imbal hasilnya turun dari sekitar 5,19% pada pertengahan Desember 2015 menjadi 4,34% pada hari Jumat 26 Februari 2016, atau turun 85 bps (year to date turun 54 bps). Investor membukukan keuntungan dari capital gain karena penurunan yield tersebut, sementara Pemerintah Indonesia diuntungkan dengan cost of fund yang lebih rendah apabila berencana menerbitkan kembali SBN (Surat Berharga negara) valas.

Indonesia juga akan diuntungkan melalui penurunan SBN dalam denominasi Rupiah. Mengapa demikian? Karena turunnya tingkat bunga global akan ditransmisikan ke turunnya bunga dalam Rupiah. Selain karena faktor teknikal seperti interest rate parity, juga karena faktor fundamental Indonesia yang dipersepsikan lebih baik. Yield SUN (Surat Utang negara) Rupiah tenor 10 tahun hari Jumat 26 Februari 2016 mencapai 8,26% telah turun 48 bps sejak awal tahun. (*)

 

Penulis adalah Staf Wakil Ketua DK OJK

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ON DEFLATIONARY

Deflationary Spiral Nonsense; Keynesian Theory vs. Practice; Eurozone Policymakers Concerned About Falling Prices

ikon analisis gw

Brexit (2016, Juni), yaitu keluarnya keanggotaan UK (Inggris Raya) dari Uni Eropa, tlah memicu efek domino kejatuhan pasar modal global, baek mata uang mau pun saham … kejatuhan mata uang global namun diiringi dengan meroketnya kurs mata uang safe haven (Swiss, Jepang, amrik), tlah memicu aliran PULUHAN RIBU TRILIUN RUPIAH (miliaran dolar amrik) berPINDAH … emerging market n non-safe haven developed countries  langsung tersambar petir BADAI EKONOMI GLOBAL lage … sebuah siklus mengerikan dari TAON k TAON persis sperti yang PERNAH DITELITI sejak taon 1800an oleh Reinhardt n Rogoff … JADI setiap saat prinsip PREPARE FOR THE WORST mesti slalu diterapkan, n TETAP INVESTASI dengan CARA KONTRARIAn (jual saat euforia, BELI SAAT HURU HARA ekonomi) merupakan PRINSIP yang berusia amat panjang: WEI-JI … efek pertama yang RAKSASA: STIMULUS keuangan oleh BANK SENTRAL berupa penurunan suku bunga n penggelontoran aksi BELI OBLIGASI, terutama dalam mata uang POUND STERLING … efek dominonya: DISINFLASI n BAHKAN DEFLASI n terakhir kemungkinan adalah: DEFLASI (turunnya harga2 produk) …  ini akan berakibat PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INGGRIS RAYA sebagai NEGARA #5 EKONOMI GLOBAL akan AMBRUK menuju RESESI, berarti ekonomi global akan tumbuh lebe lambat juga … well, liat aza 🙂

bandingkan dengan berita berikut:

LONDON channelnews Asia: The High Court struck a blow on Thursday (Nov 3) to the British government’s plans for leaving the EU, ruling it must seek parliament’s approval before starting exit talks in a landmark judgement that could delay Brexit.

Three senior judges said Prime Minister Theresa May’s government does not have the power on its own to trigger Article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty, the formal notification of Britain’s intention to leave the bloc.

May has promised to begin the process by the end of March but the ruling raises the prospect of a protracted parliamentary debate before then, in a chamber which overwhelmingly opposed Brexit and may seek to soften the break with the EU.

The pound – which has tumbled to multi-year lows against its main rivals in recent weeks as markets weigh the economic risks of Britain potentially leaving the European single market – soared against the dollar and euro Thursday, jumping above US$1.24.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney told a press conference the ruling was “an example of the uncertainty that will characterise this process”.

EU leaders have been pressing for a swift divorce, and May has arranged a phone call with European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker on Friday, a commission spokesman said.

The case challenged the government’s right to use “historic prerogative powers” – a type of executive privilege – to trigger Article 50, which begins a two-year countdown to exiting the EU.

“We hold that the secretary of state does not have power under the crown’s prerogative to give notice pursuant to Article 50 … for the United Kingdom to withdraw from the European Union,” the judgement said.

May’s Downing Street office said it was “disappointed” at the decision and would appeal, with the case now expected to be heard in the Supreme Court in early December.

“The country voted to leave the European Union in a referendum approved by act of parliament. And the government is determined to respect the result of the referendum,” it said in a statement.

A spokeswoman added: “Our plans remain to invoke Article 50 by the end of March.”

‘BETRAYAL MAY BE NEAR’

British expatriate Robert Pigney, one of the claimants in the case, told AFP outside the High Court in London that the ruling was “an immense victory for the British people”.

“It’s very important that our elected representatives in parliament remain in control of our future,” said the 22-year-old translator, who grew up in France.

May previously accused those behind the legal challenge of seeking to frustrate the Brexit process, saying: “They’re trying to kill it by delaying it.”

But Nigel Farage, the interim leader of the UK Independence Party who led the campaign for Brexit, warned there would be public outrage if parliament used its power to block the referendum result.

“I worry that a betrayal may be near at hand,” he said. “I now fear that every attempt will be made to block or delay the triggering of Article 50. If this is so, they have no idea of the level of public anger they will provoke.”

Fellow Brexit campaigner and former Conservative minister Iain Duncan Smith accused the judges of triggering “a constitutional crisis”. “It’s literally pitting parliament against the will of the British people,” he told Sky News.

Trevor Tayleur of The University of Law added it was “hard to think of a judgement that has had such a dramatic impact on government policy concerning such a crucial constitutional and political issue.”

‘TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY’

Most members of the House of Commons wanted to stay in the EU, but commentators believe there is no majority support for reversing the referendum result, which was backed by 52 per cent of British voters.

Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose party opposed Brexit, said he respected the decision of the British people.

“But there must be transparency and accountability to parliament on the terms of Brexit,” he said. “Labour will be pressing the case for a Brexit that works for Britain, putting jobs, living standards and the economy first.”

May has so far declined to outline her negotiating strategy, insisting that showing her hand would damage her chances of achieving the best outcome.

But she has indicated she will prioritise cutting immigration, a move that EU leaders have warned is incompatible with staying part of the European single market.

S&P cuts UK’s credit agency by two notches and warns it could cut further following Brexit vote

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s hit Britain with a two-notch downgrade to its credit rating on Monday and warned it could cut it further after Britons voted to leave the European Union on Thursday.

The ratings agency said:

“The downgrade reflects our view that the “leave” result in the U.K.’s referendum on the country’s EU membership (“Brexit”) will weaken the predictability, stability, and effectiveness of policymaking in the U.K. and affect its economy, GDP growth, and fiscal and external balances. We have revised our view of the U.K.’s institutional assessment and we no longer consider it to be a strength in our assessment of the U.K.’s key rating factors. The downgrade also reflects what we consider enhanced risks of a marked deterioration of external financing conditions in light of the U.K.’s extremely elevated level of gross external financing requirements (as a share of current account receipts and usable reserves). The Brexit result could lead to a deterioration of the U.K.’s economic performance, including its large financial services sector, which is a major contributor to employment and public receipts. The result could also trigger a constitutional crisis if it leads to a second referendum on Scottish independence from the U.K.”

6:48pm

S&P lowers UK sovereign credit rating to AA from AAA

 Credit rating S&P has downgraded the UK’s sovereign credit rating by two-notches to AA from AAA, to reflect risks of a marked deterioration of external financing conditions.

doraemon

BUDAPEST kontan. Sepertinya, kebijakan suku bunga negatif menular ke sejumlah negara. Setelah Eropa dan Jepang, kini, The National Bank of Hungary mengambil langkah yang sama.

Kemarin (22/3), bank sentral Hongaria ini memangkas suku bunga deposito semalam sebesar 15 basis poin menjadi -0,05%. Selain itu, suku bunga pinjaman juga diturunkan dari 2,1% menjadi 1,45%.

Bank sentral juga menurunkan suku bunga acuan utama sebesar 15 basis poin menjadi 1,2% di tengah ekspektasi tidak adanya perubahan kebijakan pada pertemuan Maret.

Sekadar informasi, suku bunga negatif merupakan alat kebijakan yang sebelumnya sudah diberlakukan oleh sejumlah negara. Sebut saja Jepang, Swiss, dan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB).

Dilihat dari sejarahnya, bank sentral Denmark menjadi bank sentral pertama yang mengadopsi kebijakan suku bunga deposito negatif -0,2% pada Juli 2012 lalu. Sejak saat itu, suku bunga deposito terus ditekan hingga -0,65%.

Tujuannya tak lain untuk meningkatkan kucuran kredit perbankan dan meningkatkan proses pemulihan ekonomi Denmark.

Setelah itu, Swiss juga menetapkan suku bunga deposito mereka di level -0,75%. Sedangkan Swedia menetapkan suku bunga acuan di level -0,5%.

Teranyar, ECB menetapkan suku bunga deposito di level -0,4%.

William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist Capital Economics, mengatakan angkah mengejutkan bank sentral Hongaria pada Selasa kemarin menandakan dimulainya siklus pelonggaran kebijakan yang moderat.

“Dari sejumlah faktor yang ada, kami memprediksi pemangkasan 20 basis poin lagi dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Akhir tahun, suku bunganya bisa di level negatif 1%,” jelasnya.

Menurut penilaiannya, keputusan bank sentral Hongaria kemungkinan dipicu oleh sejumlah faktor termasuk penambahan stimulus oleh ECB, pemangkasan prediksi inflasi, dan lemahnya aktivitas bisnis dan inflasi dalam sebulan terakhir.

Jackson meramal, ekonomi Hongaria akan sedikit melambat dan dapat tertekan dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

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bloomberg: Crazy things are happening in the world economy. In Europe and Japan, interest rates have turned negative, something long thought impossible. In the U.S., workers’ productivity is improving at the feeblest five-year rate since 1982. China is a confusing welter of slumping growth and asset bubbles.

Through it all, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen practices the central banker’s art of draining the drama from any situation. She insists that conditions are returning to normal, albeit slowly. Her favored approach, “data dependence,” is nonpredictive and noncommittal, like finding your way in the dark by pointing a flashlight at your toes.

Lawrence Summers, the Harvard economist who almost got Yellen’s job, has no patience for such patience. Since losing out to Yellen in 2013, he’s been jetting around the world—from Santiago to St. Louis to Florence, Italy—to argue that the world economy is in much worse shape than central bankers understand. Focusing on monetary policy alone, he says, they’re doomed to fall short of reviving growth. They need to reach out to the governments they work for, he argues, and insist on strong fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending and the like. As an intellectual brawler from way back, he’s in his element.

The jury’s still out on Yellen vs. Summers. Boring does not equal wrong, and provocative does not equal right. If the U.S. economy heals nicely over the next few years under business as usual, Yellen’s incrementalism will look smart. But the longer things stay weird, the more Summers appears to be onto something.

“My sense is that if Larry’s hypothesis is true, it’s a total game changer. It will affect how we think about macroeconomic policy for the next several decades,” says Gauti Eggertsson, an Iceland native who worked in the Federal Reserve System for eight years and is now a macroeconomic theorist at Brown University. In November, after Summers presented his ideas at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, its president, Adam Posen, himself a former policymaker at the Bank of England, blogged that “all of us in the profession have a lot of work to do” to respond to the “disturbing questions” Summers raised.

For economic policymakers, the most disturbing question is why global growth remains paltry and uneven. The annual growth rate of gross domestic product in the U.S. in the January-March quarter was just 0.5 percent. The euro zone was stronger than the U.S., at 2.2 percent; Japan, which has been flipping in and out of recessions for a quarter century, shrank 1.1 percent. Deflation once seemed to be a strictly Japanese problem—now it’s a worldwide threat. Pessimism about growth prospects is reflected in low forecasts for long-term interest rates. The annual yield on German 10-year notes is only 0.13 percent.

It wasn’t obvious in the summer of 2013, when President Obama was choosing between Yellen and Summers, that Summers would turn out to have such out-of-the-box ideas. Obama said that “when it comes down to their basic philosophy on the future of the Fed,” the differences between the candidates were so small “you couldn’t slide a paper between them,” according to Democratic Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, who attended a meeting with the president. Both were highly credentialed—she as a longtime Fed official who was a labor economist at the University of California at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business; he as Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, former Harvard University president, and former head of Obama’s National Economic Council. If anything, Yellen seemed more likely to be an activist Fed chair and “would probably be more committed to keeping stimulus in place until the economy was definitely recovered,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said at the time.

But in November 2013, after Yellen was chosen but before she replaced Ben Bernanke as chair, Summers went to the International Monetary Fund in Washington and raised the specter of “secular stagnation,” a term coined in the Great Depression by Harvard economist Alvin Hansen, who lamented “sick recoveries which die in their infancy, and depressions which feed on themselves and leave a hard and seemingly immovable form of unemployment.” “Secular” is econospeak for long-lasting, as opposed to cyclical. Hansen’s warnings about secular stagnation seemed to be disproved when U.S. growth accelerated in World War II and then remained strong after the war stimulus ended.

For Summers, bringing the idea of secular stagnation back into the academic debate was like putting on a moldy old coat from Grandpa’s attic. But revive it he did. “Now, this may all be madness, and I may not have this right at all,” he told the IMF audience, before coming around to saying, “we may well need, in the years ahead, to think about how we manage an economy in which the zero nominal interest rate is a chronic and systemic inhibitor of economic activity, holding our economies back below their potential.”

In other words, Summers claimed world economies could be so imbalanced that even zero interest rates would be too high—and for many years, not just briefly as economists had believed. The speech lit up the Twitterverse and drew heavy news coverage. Journalists’ attention has waned a bit, but Summers has kept developing the concept on his blog, in his Financial Times columns, in speeches, and in papers written with other economists, including Brown’s Eggertsson, who’s translated Summers’s thinking into the formal language of general-equilibrium economics. The real world is helping Summers’s case. The longer stagnation lasts, the more it looks secular rather than just cyclical. “I’ve come to a growing conviction” that the theory is right, he says.

To be clear, Summers is challenging much more than when and how much the Fed should raise interest rates. True, he criticized it for voting in December to lift the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point after seven years at just more than zero. But that’s an ordinary argument over how high to set the monetary thermostat.

Summers’s deeper argument is that world growth is stuck in a rut because there’s a chronic shortage of demand for goods and services and a concomitant excess of desired savings. The U.S. and other industrialized nations tend to save more as their populations age, he says. Meanwhile, growing inequality puts a bigger share of the world’s income in the pockets of rich people; they can’t spend everything they make, so they save it. The investment that would ordinarily soak up those savings is falling short. That’s partly because the new economy is asset-lite: Companies such as Uber and Airbnb prosper by exploiting assets (cars and houses) that already exist. Software, which is pure information and doesn’t require the construction of factories, accounts for a bigger share of the economy. Slow growth in output and productivity reduces investment as executives lose faith in the payoff from capital spending.

Exhibit No. 1 in Summers’s case: Interest rates have been trending down for 30 years, even after taking into account the decline in inflation. The interest rate, like any price, reflects supply and demand. It’s fallen because the demand for loans is weak and the supply of loans from savers, who have extra cash to deploy, is strong. It used to be thought that interest rates couldn’t go below zero, but the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, among others, are so desperate to kindle growth that they’ve pushed some rates below what used to be called the “zero lower bound” into negative territory.

Despite opposing the Fed’s December hike, Summers continues to worry that an extended period of ultralow and even negative rates will cause bubbles in assets like stocks and housing, as desperate investors chase after higher returns. He says fiscal policy needs to play a much bigger role than it has. How? On the investment side, he favors government spending to fix America’s dilapidated roads and bridges, combat global warming, and improve education—big, expensive projects that would provide value while soaking up excess savings. A favorite line: “The United States right now has the lowest infrastructure investment rate that it has had since the second world war.” On the savings side, he favors, among other things, changing the tax code to get more money into the hands of lower-income and middle-class families who’d spend rather than hoard it.

This, of course, sounds a lot like the agenda Obama has been pushing unsuccessfully for the past eight years. “To me, it looks like an opinion masquerading as a theory,” Arnold Kling, a former Fed economist, wrote on his blog in 2014. Congress shows no interest in any measure that smells like fiscal stimulus—especially now, with lawmakers hiding under their desks until after the election. Summers responds that his prescription is separable from his diagnosis; conservatives might prefer to fix the problem with, say, export promotion, the elimination of wasteful regulations, and big tax cuts to induce companies to build factories.

Summers has been getting more of a hearing from central bankers around the world. His message to them: Think bigger. The Fed traditionally restricts itself to managing the “business cycle”—fluctuations of output around a supposed long-term upward trend. Summers questions the very existence of a business cycle, an inherently optimistic concept implying that what goes down must come up. When output declines, his research shows, it never quite gets back to its original trajectory. Productive capacity suffers lasting damage, in part because laid-off workers lose skills. That makes it imperative to avoid a recession whenever possible. Yet Summers says the odds of a U.S. recession in the next three years are “significantly better than 50-50.”

Lately, he’s added the idea that secular stagnation is infectious, spreading between countries by trade and investment flows. A stagnant country can try to cure its unemployment problem by pushing down the value of its currency and running a big trade surplus; that worsens unemployment in its trading partners, which suffer trade deficits, according to recent work by Eggertsson, Summers, and others. Beggar-thy-neighbor trade theory, in other words, is alive and well.

Summers argues that central bankers should stop focusing on the business cycle, stop jealously guarding their independence, and work with other institutions to solve the deep problems that have gotten the economy into this condition. “Central banks like to say … ‘Well, yeah, productivity growth’s a problem. That’s not our problem, though.’ ‘Inequality’s a problem. That’s not our problem, though,’ ” Summers said in a question-and-answer session after his Peterson talk. “I would suggest that no major central banker in the world is seriously engaged with this as an issue.”

The Federal Reserve System employs more Ph.D. economists than any other organization in the world, so it would seem to be an ideal place to bang out big ideas about secular stagnation. But Fed economists tend to focus on short-term forecasting and the mechanics of monetary policy, says Peterson’s Posen. Yellen can’t afford to indulge in blue-skying. Her most important job is to move the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee along by baby steps, maintaining as much of a consensus as possible among hawks and doves and being careful not to surprise the financial markets. “If you’re a member of a central bank committee, let alone the chair, every word gets scrutinized,” Posen says.

On the narrow question of where rates are headed, the Fed is gradually drifting in Summers’s direction. The median projection by rate setters of where the federal funds rate will eventually settle has come down a full percentage point, to 3.25 percent, since the Fed began releasing projections in 2012. But Yellen, unlike Summers, isn’t calling on Congress to amp up stimulus. In a speech in November at the Banque de France, she said contractionary tax-and-spending policy was “hardly ideal,” but gave fiscal authorities an out by saying they had to take long-term sustainability into account.

Yellen has tiptoed around secular stagnation, referring to the theory but not endorsing it. Her right-hand man, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, who taught Summers, Bernanke, and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at MIT and once ran Israel’s central bank, seems more open to the idea that something fundamental has changed. Speaking to academic economists in San Francisco in January, he referred to “the secular stagnation hypothesis, forcefully put forward by Larry Summers in a number of papers.” He agreed that interest rates will likely “remain low for the policy-relevant future.” He even entertained one of Summers’s solutions for the savings/investment imbalance: government spending on long-term projects. Says Summers: “Even people who don’t like to use the term ‘secular stagnation’ are accepting new realities of excess saving relative to investment, very low rates, and chronic demand shortfall.”

One big fact is hard to square with Summers’s idea that the economy suffers from a shortfall in demand—namely, the 5 percent U.S. unemployment rate. If Americans spend a lot more, as he desires, there might not be enough workers available to handle the demand. The result could be a bidding war for talent, climbing wages, and unacceptably high inflation.

Princeton’s Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman, is one of a group of economists who argue that economic stagnation emanates from weak supply, not weak demand. “When I go to sleep at night worrying about the economy, I’m never worrying that Americans won’t spend enough,” he says. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University similarly says growth is impeded by a lack of innovation—a supply-side explanation.

Summers, no surprise, has an answer to those objections. He says there may be more slack in the labor market than is sometimes recognized. And he says the demand-side and supply-side explanations for stagnation aren’t mutually exclusive: Weak demand growth can itself damage the supply side of the economy—i.e., the people and machines who make stuff. Unemployment causes workers’ skills to atrophy; companies stop investing in equipment and software.

Strengthening demand can turn that vicious circle around and gradually raise the economy’s productive potential, Summers says. Far from crowding out private investment, government spending could induce more of it.

When interest rates can go negative, all of the verities in economics are up for grabs. Economists joke that the questions on their doctoral exams haven’t changed in 50 years, but the answers have. The joke “captures a truth,” Summers says.

He seems to relish being in the midst of the upheaval. “That’s the effect of living backwards,” the White Queen told Alice in Wonderland. “It always makes one a little giddy at first.”

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time.com: The figures could spark moves to encourage lending, extra government spending and possibly a second delay in a sales tax hike

(TOKYO) — Japan’s GDP contracted at a 1.1% annualized pace in the last quarter in further evidence the world’s third-largest economy is failing to gain traction despite unprecedented efforts by the central bank to spur more growth.

The revised figures released Tuesday compared with a 1.4% expansion in the July-September quarter. They showed a modest improvement over the previous estimate of a 1.4% contraction in October-December.

But more recent data suggest Japan’s growth has remained tepid in early 2016, raising the likelihood of further government action to help boost growth. That could include further moves by the Bank of Japan to encourage lending, extra government spending and possibly a second delay in a sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017.

“Companies have not been as downbeat about production in the month ahead since the 2008 recession. What’s more, consumer spending fell further in January as indicated by dips in ‘core’ household spending and retail sales,” Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a commentary.

In quarterly terms, the economy shrank 0.3% in the last quarter compared with a preliminary estimate of a 0.4% contraction.

Business investment climbed 1.5%, helping to offset a decline in spending on housing. Overall public investment dropped 3.4%.

Japan’s economy grew 0.5% in 2015 after flat-lining in 2014

Economists are divided on whether the Bank of Japan, which holds a policy meeting next week, will expand asset purchases that are pumping trillions of yen (hundreds of billions of dollars) into the economy to help combat deflation.

Last month, the central bank began charging a fee on some commercial banks’ deposits, imposing a “negative interest rate” policy that has driven bond yields and interest rates on mortgages and savings deposits lower.

Stuck with diminishing returns on their savings and unhappy with a newly implemented official identification system known as “My Number,” many Japanese households are investing overseas or just stashing cash at home: sales of safes have soared so quickly that retailers say manufacturers cannot keep up with demand.

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda defended the central bank’s strategy in a speech Monday. Companies and consumers will eventually begin spending more, enabling Japan to reach a 2 percent inflation target and vanquish deflation, he said.

“Japan’s economy has improved significantly from three years ago,” Kuroda said, noting low unemployment and record-high corporate profits — mainly due to a weakening of Japan’s currency resulting from the BOJ’s monetary easing.

But he acknowledged lackluster growth in corporate investment and wages. Since banks’ profit margins are being squeezed, “there is a strong concern that the introduction of a negative interest rate will make the situation even worse,” Kuroda said, arguing that an end to deflation would lead to higher interest rates in the long run.

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JAKARTA sindonews – Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Dzulfian Syafrian mengatakan, cepat atau lambat Indonesia mengikuti tren dunia mengalami deflasi secara global. Deflasi global terjadi selain karena lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, ditambah jatuhnya harga-harga komoditas dan energi khususnya minyak.

“Deflasi pada bulan Februari ini memperkuat argumentasi saya beberapa minggu lalu saat BI menurunkan suku bunga. Di mana semakin terbuka lebar bagi BI untuk kembali memangkas suku bunganya,” ujar Dzulfian, Selasa (1/3/2016).

Dia menuturkan, deflasi akan terus berlanjut selama perekonomian global masih belum pulih dan harga-harga komoditas dan energi masih anjlok seperti saat ini.

Menurut Dzulfian, jatuhnya harga komoditas memukul perekonomian Indonesia lantaran ekspor Indonesia sangat bergantung pada barang-barang komoditas. Namun hal ini dapat dikompensasi dengan anjloknya harga minyak mengingat Indonesia adalah negara net importir minyak sehingga jatuhnya harga minyak merupakan bonus dan ‘insentif’ bagi perekonomian.

“Oleh karena itu, peluang ini harus dilihat dengan seksama oleh para pengambil kebijakan khususnya BI dan Pemerintah,” katanya.

Sebalummnya Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI Tirta Segara menuturkan, indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) pada Februari 2016 berdasarkan data BPS deflasi sebesar 0,09% (mtm), sejalan dengan perkiraan Bank Indonesia. Deflasi IHK terutama disumbang deflasi komponen barang yang diatur Pemerintah (administered prices) dan komponen bahan makanan bergejolak (volatile foods).

Atas perkembangan tersebut, inflasi IHK secara tahunan mencapai 4,42% (yoy) dan berada dalam kisaran sasaran inflasi Bank Indonesia, yaitu sebesar 4%±1% (yoy). Untuk itu itu, koordinasi kebijakan pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia dalam mengendalikan inflasi akan terus diperkuat, untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan tekanan inflasi kelompok volatile foods.

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Tokyo, Feb 25, 2016 (AFP)
Japan’s inflation rate fell back to zero in January after two months of modest growth, government data showed Friday.

The nation’s growth in core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food prices, was unchanged from a year ago, according to the internal affairs ministry.

The figure underscores Tokyo’s challenge in conquering years of deflation and insipid growth through Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” policy blitz.

reuters: With next week’s calendar full of economic data releases and speeches by economic policymakers, investors have been poised to watch the Federal Reserve for clues about the U.S. central bank’s next move, but an unexpectedly hot reading on inflation on Friday will further sharpen that focus.

After coming into 2016 with an expectation of three or four interest rate hikes through the year, market participants recently were viewing the Fed as likely raising interest rates once, if at all, in light of weak inflation and global volatility.

But Friday’s data showed the core consumer price index (CPI), a measure of underlying U.S. inflation, rose in January by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years to a 2.2 percent annualized rate. It drew particular attention as the number was above the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, though it is not the central bank’s benchmark inflation measure.

The uptick in price pressures has already shifted the market’s expectations on the Fed’s next move.

“The inflation numbers definitely caught the markets off guard,” said Joseph Lavorgna, senior economist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

“Last week at this time the market was pricing a 25 percent chance of a rate hike by year-end and now it’s over 40 percent and that’s largely because of today’s stronger than expected CPI.”

The dollar rose alongside Treasury yields shortly after the data, as markets saw the higher inflation as nudging the Fed towards tightening policy. The euro hit its lowest since Feb. 3.

Equity markets have also closely followed expectations on Fed policy. Lower rates tend to support stocks in general, with high-paying dividend names like utilities gaining investors’ favor. In an environment of rising rates, banks tend to take the lead.

The expectation of higher interest rates has been cited as one of the reasons for stocks having fallen as much as 11 percent this year. The S&P 500 .SPX is down 6 percent so far in 2016, and on track for its third positive week of the year.

The inflation numbers add to recent economic data, including a stronger job market and consumer spending, that will force the Fed to seriously reconsider more rate hikes, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

“I think what’s happening is that people are starting to put tightening back on the table,” Paulsen said.

CHOCK-FULL OF FED SPEAKERS

Personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of price inflation, is out next Friday and could confirm or outweigh the trend in the CPI reading. Among other market-moving numbers next week are purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing and services sectors and two gauges of consumer confidence.

Investors and the Fed could address a decline in earnings, now seen as down 3.7 percent for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of last year, and lower outlooks for 2016 as other reasons to keep rates lower for longer.

The incoming data gives more weight to next week’s scheduled speeches from many Fed officials, including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Tuesday and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Thursday as markets look for a change in tone. Two Fed surveys of business conditions, Richmond and Kansas City, are also out next week.

“I don’t think the Fed can help stocks, they can only hurt them,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services in New York.

“If they came out too hawkish that can hurt stocks; too dovish can help a little but not create sustainable investor demand.”

In Fed-watcher parlance, hawks are seen quicker to push for rate hikes than doves.

In a U-turn late on Wednesday, Fed voting member and hawkish St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it would be “unwise” to raise rates further given U.S. inflation data and global volatility. He speaks Wednesday in New York, followed by questions from the media.

The Fed’s policy-setting committee next meets March 15 and 16 in Washington, with a statement followed by a news conference with Chair Janet Yellen.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos, additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Laila Kearney; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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TOKYO nikkei — While the Bank of Japan’s decision Friday to adopt negative interest rates likely will benefit households and businesses early on through reduced borrowing costs, financial institutions will be left with even fewer attractive investment options.

Under normal circumstances, banks pay interest on deposits and receive interest as loans are repaid. Negative interest rates invert these rules: Depositors must pay interest on their money, and borrowers receive interest on their loans.

But the negative rates announced Friday will not affect deposits by individuals and companies. The rates will apply only to excess funds that banks deposit with the BOJ. Because banks will lose money on such new deposits, they likely will put their money toward lending and investment instead.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds reached a record low of less than 0.1% in Tokyo on Friday as investors assumed that banks would buy government bonds instead of parking money at the BOJ. If JGB yields sink even lower, competition could heat up for private-sector lending, which offers better returns. Some contend that mortgage rates and commercial loan rates will fall further as a result.

The real estate market will benefit if negative interest rates spur economic activity, developer Mitsui Fudosan said. But lending rates have fallen steadily, while mortgage rates are near record lows. More time will be needed to tell whether the new policy boosts lending, said Nana Otsuki of online brokerage Monex.

Negative interest rates will affect financial products as well. Daiwa Asset Management will stop accepting requests Monday to buy into three mutual funds investing in government and corporate debt, due to concerns that yields could turn negative as short-term rates fall further below zero.

Financial institutions have deposited more than 250 trillion yen ($2.06 trillion) with the BOJ. With rates at 0.1%, these funds generated more than 200 billion yen a year in interest. If this evaporated, the impact would be severe. The central bank did not change the interest rate on existing deposits, applying the negative rate only to new deposits. This is expected to affect 20 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen initially, with the figure rising by tens of trillions of yen a year thereafter.

But interest rates will fall in the private sector as well. Banks will be hurt less by negative interest on central bank deposits than by falling market interest rates leading to smaller yields on loans.

Deutsche Securities estimates that a 0.05 percentage-point decline in yields would cut net profit at Japan’s three megabanks by 5%. Regional banks reliant on domestic business would be hit even harder. “There’ll be a tremendous impact on the health of financial institutions,” said the president of one such bank.

Bank stocks sank across the board after the BOJ’s announcement. If negative interest rates cause banks’ finances to deteriorate, they may find it harder to take risks such as lending to businesses and individuals.

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NEW YORK, KOMPAS.com – Di tahun 2016, perekonomian Amerika Serikat diprediksi berjalan menuju gerbang resesi. Bahkan, perbankan besar seperti Morgan Stanley meramalkan ada kemungkinan 20 persen resesi terjadi di tahun 2016 ini.

Jumat (29/1/2016) waktu setempat, pemerintah AS akan merilis data ekonomi kuartal IV-2015. Banyak ahli memprediksi ekonomi AS hanya akan tumbuh 1 persen atau lebih rendah. Bank sentral AS pun menyatakan ekonomi Negeri Paman Sam tersebut melambat di penghujung tahun 2015.

Berikut tiga faktor yang menjadi indikator perlambatan ekonomi AS. Pertama, konsumsi masyarakat AS tidak banyak. Padahal, konsumsi domestik menyumbang dua pertiga ekonomi negara tersebut. Faktanya, penjualan ritel anjlok di bulan Desember. Kedua, sektor manufaktur AS sudah memasuki resesi. Pabrik-pabrik di AS menderita akibat perlambatan ekonomi global.

Menurut data Morgan Stanley, sektor manufaktur menyumbang 10 persen terhadap perekonomian AS. Selain itu, penguatan nilai tukar dollar AS membuat produk yang dibuat di AS menjadi mahal di luar negeri. Akibatnya, terjadi penurunan permintaan barang-barang buatan AS.

Terakhir, korporasi-korporasi AS pun membukukan kinerja buruk. Bursa saham S&P anjlok 7 persen selama bulan Januari 2016. Apple, perusahaan AS terbesar dalam hal kapitalisasi pasar, mencatat penurunan laba di kuartal pertama 2016, yang merupakan pertama kali dalam 13 tahun.

“Kami menghadapi kondisi ekstrim yang belum pernah kami alami sebelumnya,” kata CEO Apple Tim Cook.

Penulis : Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan
Editor : M Fajar Marta

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marketwatch: The Bank of Japan brought the thunder Friday, shocking investors and economists after it pushed a key interest rate into negative territory in its latest attempt to reinflate the country’s economy.

Here’s what you need to know about negative rates and the Bank of Japan:

The rate cut

The Bank of Japan announced it had cut the rate on excess reserves to minus 0.1%, meaning institutions will have to pay the central bank for the privilege of parking reserves that exceed those required by regulators. The rate on most existing reserves, however, remains at 0.1%, while the rate for required reserves was cut to zero (see chart below). Unlike the single negative rate applied to deposits parked at the European Central Bank, the Japanese move is similar to tiered measures put in place by the Swiss National Bank, which punishes sight deposits, or commercial bank assets, of more than 320 billion Swiss francs ($312.5 billion) with a fee of 0.75%.

Bank of Japan

Why would it do that?

The move does speak to a certain degree of desperation.

There appear to be a number of reasons for the move. The most pressing is the fact that the Bank of Japan continues to struggle to achieve its goal of pushing inflation back up to 2%—considered a healthy level for most economies. The central bank on Friday further pushed out its timetable for achieving that goal to the first half of 2017.

Read: How to brace for the next central banks surprise.

Part and parcel of those concerns is the recent strength of the Japanese yenUSDJPY, +2.23% While the currency has weakened sharply since late 2012 when the dollar fetched less than ¥80, it had found some renewed strength recently. Some analysts saw the ¥116 level as a possible line in the sand that might have spooked some policy makers and contributed to Friday’s decision.

See: Perma-bear Marc Faber denounces BOJ move.

Weak economic data and concerns that the bank’s ability to expand its already sizable asset-buying program amid liquidity concerns are also seen contributing to the move.

In the wake of the BoJ’s decision Friday, the yen plummeted to its lowest level in five weeks against the dollar to ¥121.00 compared with ¥118.84 late Thursday.

How do negative interest rates work?

Central banks use their deposit to influence how banks handle their reserves. In the case of negative rates, central banks want to dissuade lenders from parking cash with them. The hope is that they will use that money to lend to individuals and businesses, which in turn will spend the money and boost the economy and contribute to inflation.

It is also aiming to force investors to shift money out of bank accounts and into higher-yielding assets.

So this has been done elsewhere?

The European Central Bank in June 2014 was the first major central bank to venture into negative territory followed by the Swiss National Bank in December 2014. The Danish central bank has also employed negative rates to defend its currency’s peg to the euro, while Sweden’s rates are also in negative territory.

And former Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke has said that in the event of a serious downturn, negative interest rates are a tool that the U.S. central bank should consider.

What next?

Many economists see the Bank of Japan’s move as a testing of the waters. They expect the central bank to follow through with further cuts to the deposit rate, perhaps approaching the negative 0.75% rate in place in Switzerland.

What does it mean for other central banks?

The term “currency wars” is getting thrown around a lot this morning. The move has significantly raised expectations the European Central Bank will follow through in March with a further cut in its deposit rate and expansion of its own asset-buying program. European money market rates are pricing in a more than 100% likelihood of a 10-basis-point March cut by the ECB and an almost 100% likelihood of a cumulative 20-basis-point cut by year-end, noted analysts at Barclays.

Read: A lesson for the Fed in the Bank of Japan’s move.

Then there is the Fed. The move raises questions about the central bank’s ability to further raise interest rates in the face of a rising dollar, which highlights the widening divergence of global monetary policy.

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WE Online, Jakarta – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengatakan penurunan tajam harga minyak menunjukkan lebih banyak hambatan ekonomi global daripada memberikan stimulus terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia.

Tekanan keuangan pada para eksportir dan pemangkasan investasi mendalam di industri lebih daripada mengimbangi keuntungan yang diharapkan dari minyak murah yang dinikmati oleh para importir utama seperti Jepang dan Amerika Serikat, kata IMF seperti dilansir AFP di Jakarta, Rabu (20/1/2016).

“Harga minyak mentah yang lebih rendah biasanya akan merangsang beberapa permintaan di negara-negara di mana itu merupakan biaya rumah tangga dan bisnis penting dan memacu aktivitas ekonomi yang lebih besar,” kata IMF dalam prospek terbaru tentang perekonomian dunia.

Namun, setelah jatuh 70 persen pada harga selama 18 bulan, faktor-faktor lainnya telah memperlemah keuntungan yang diharapkan dari penurunan itu.

Pertama, katanya, “tekanan keuangan di banyak eksportir minyak mengurangi kemampuan mereka untuk memperhalus guncangan, memerlukan pengurangan yang cukup besar dalam permintaan dalam negeri mereka.” Kedua, jatuhnya harga telah memaksa perusahaan-perusahaan minyak dan gas untuk memotong kembali investasinya, negatif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Selain itu, IMF mencatat bahwa permintaan minyak tidak meningkat ketika harga telah anjlok. Dikatakan, faktor-faktor di belakang itu termasuk harga minyak mentah yang lebih murah tidak sepenuhnya dibebankan kepada konsumen dan kedua bahwa bisnis dan konsumen di beberapa wilayah mungkin masih mengurangi pengeluaran dan utang.

Laporan IMF diselesaikan sebelum harga minyak mentah turun sekitar 22 persen dalam dua minggu pertama tahun ini ketika para pedagang bersiap untuk Iran kembali ke pasar internasional.

Penulis: Gregor Samsa

Editor: Cahyo Prayogo

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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The falling cost of gas and food kept consumer prices in check in November but some inflationary pressure appears to be building in the economy.

The consumer price index was flat on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday.

Energy prices dropped 1.3% last month — gasoline price fell again — and food costs slipped 0.1% to mark the first decline since March. Lower food prices partly reflects falling costs of farm crops and other commodities.

Stripping out food and energy, so-called core prices rose 0.2% for the third straight month. The cost of shelter, health care, new cars and airline tickets all rose.

Inflation, however, is no longer trending lower. From November 2014 to November 2015, consumer inflation climbed 0.5%. Although that’s still very low, it’s the biggest annualized gain since December.

Similarly, core consumer prices increased at a 2% rate over the past 12 months for the first time since May 2014.

The Federal Reserve wants inflation to rise to the 2% range, though the central bank relies on a different measure known as the PCE index that’s rising at a much slower annualized rate. The core PCE had risen 1.3% through the 12 months ended in October.

Meanwhile, real or inflation-adjusted hourly wages edged up 0.1% in November, the government said. Real wages have climbed 1.8% in the past 12 months.

the economic collapses: If we really are plunging into a deflationary global financial crisis, we would expect to see commodity prices crash hard.  That happened just before the great stock market crash of 2008, and that is precisely what is happening once again right now.  On Thursday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index closed at 79.1544.  The last time that it closed this low was 16 years ago.  Not even during the worst moments of the last recession did it ever get so low.  Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down more than 28 percent over the past 12 months, and it has plummeted by more than half since mid-2011.  As a result of this stunning commodity collapse, extremely large mining companies such as Anglo American are imploding, giant commodity trading firms such as Glencore and Trafigura are in full-blown crisis mode, and huge portions of the global financial system are in danger of utterly collapsing.

In recent days, I have been trying to stress that many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008 are happening once again.  This includes the staggering crash of commodity prices that we are currently witnessing, and even CNN acknowledges that there are parallels to what we experienced seven years ago…

The last time raw materials like copper and oil were this cheap, an economic depression loomed just around the corner.

It’s no secret that commodities in general have had a horrendous 2015. A nasty combination of overflowing supply and soft demand has wreaked havoc on the industry.

But prices for everything from crude oil to industrial metals like aluminum, steel, copper, platinum, and palladium have collapsed even further in recent days.

As I mentioned above, this crash in prices is hitting mining companies really hard.  Just this week, the fifth largest mining company in the entire world announced a massive restructuring and will be laying off tens of thousands of workers…

In the latest example of just how bad things have gotten, Anglo American–the world’s fifth largest miner–just kitchen sink-ed it, announcing a sweeping restructuring, a massive round of layoffs, and a dividend cut. The company will reduce its assets by some 60% while headcount will be cut by a whopping 85,000 or, nearly two-thirds. 

Overall, the U.S. has lost approximately 123,000 good paying jobs from the mining sector since the end of 2014.  And if commodity prices stay low, this sector is going to continue to bleed good paying jobs.

Meanwhile, investors have been dumping the debt of any companies that have anything to do with commodities.  This has significantly contributed to the emerging junk bond crisis that I discussed in my last article.  As I write this, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK has fallen all the way down to 34.31, which is the lowest that it has been since the last recession.  For much more on the junk bond implosion, I would encourage you to read an article that Wolf Richter just put out entitled “Bond King Gets Antsy as Junk Bonds, Which Lead Stocks, Spiral to Heck“.

So why are commodity prices falling so rapidly?

Many analysts are pointing to the economic slowdown in China as the primary reason.  For years, the Chinese economy voraciously gobbled up commodities from sources all over the planet, but now things are changing.  The Chinese economy is really, really slowing down, and some recently released numbers give us some clues as to the true extent of that slowdown…

-Chinese exports fell 6.8 percent in November on a year over year basis after being down 6.9 percent on a year over year basis in October.

-Chinese imports were down 8.7 percent in November on a year over year basis.

-Chinese manufacturing activity has been contracting for nine months in a row.

-Last week, the China Containerized Freight Index plummeted to 718.58 – the lowest level ever recorded.

And of course it isn’t just China.  Goldman Sachs says that the seventh largest economy on the entire planet, Brazil, has plunged into a “depression“.  And as I pointed out the other day, of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the entire world, an astonishing 47 of them (more than half) are down at least 10 percent year to date.

Even though stocks slid in the U.S. this week, the major indexes still seem somewhat stable.  But this is a bit of an illusion.  Yes, the biggest names on Wall Street are still flying high for the moment, but shares of a multitude of smaller and mid-size firms have been plummeting.  At this point, nearly 70 percent of all U.S. stocks are already below their 200 day moving averages.  This is yet another thing that we would expect to see just before the bottom falls out for stocks.

Everything that I have been writing about this week (see here and here) is perfectly consistent with all of my warnings from earlier this year.

We are plunging into a deflationary financial crisis in textbook fashion.  And if the Federal Reserve actually does decide to go ahead with an interest rate hike next week that is just going to make things even worse.

But most people are not patient enough to watch a process play out.  Most people that write about “the coming economic collapse” hype it up like it is going to be some sort of big Hollywood blockbuster that is going to happen over a week or a month and then be over.  That is definitely not the way that I see things.

To me, “the economic collapse” is something that has been happening for decades, that is still in the process of happening right now, and that will continue to happen as we move forward into the future.  The long-term trends that are ripping our economy to shreds continue to intensify, and our leaders are not doing anything to fix our underlying fundamental problems.

And the financial crisis that I warned would start during 2015 and accelerate in 2016 has already begun.  More than half of all major global stock market indexes are down by at least 10 percent year to date, and some of them have plummeted by more than 30 or 40 percent.  Trillions of dollars of wealth has been wiped out around the globe, and this is just the beginning.

All of the numbers tell us the same thing.

Big trouble is ahead.

My job is to inform you of these things.  What you choose to do with this information is up to you.

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Washington – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengatakan pihaknya mendukung keputusan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk menopang zona euro. Termasuk, mendesak ECB bertindak lebih besar mencapai tujuan stabilitas harga.

“Keputusan ECB hari ini akan membantu mengatasi peningkatan risiko penurunan pemulihan,” tegas juru bicara IMF Gerry Rice pada pertemuan pers reguler pemberi pinjaman global yang berbasis di Washington. “Tindakan hari ini dan komitmen yang kuat untuk menyesuaikan program jika diperlukan akan membantu memenuhi tujuan stabilitas harga,” jelas dia.

IMF mendesak ECB untuk terus memperkuat sinyal kesediaan bertindak dan menggunakan semua instrumen tersedia sampai mandat stabilitas harga terpenuhi. ECB pada Kamis memutuskan untuk menurunkan suku bunga fasilitas deposito sebesar 10 basis poin menjadi minus 0,3 persen. Bank sentral juga memutuskan untuk memperpanjang program pembelian aset hingga akhir Maret 2017 dari September 2016.

http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2257287/imf-dukung-keputusan-ecb-topang-zona-euro

Sumber : INILAH.COM

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Price Deflation Hits Italy First Time in 55 Years

The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reports that consumer price inflation declined by 0.1% from August 2013 to August 2014.

Italian consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in August of 2014, matching preliminary estimates. The country’s annual inflation rate touched the negative territory for the first time in nearly 55 years due to a drop in energy prices.

Year-on-year, prices of energy fell 3.6 percent in August, mainly driven by a 1.2 percent drop in cost of non-regulated energy products. Additional downward pressures came from food cost (-0.5 percent), mainly unprocessed food (-1.8 percent) and communication (-9.0 percent). Meanwhile, prices of services slowed (0.6 percent in August compared with a 0.7 percent increase in July).

Italy CPI 2000 – 2014

image: https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/6054b-italy2binflation.png?w=300

Eurozone Policymakers Concerned About Falling Prices

A Financial Times headline portrays falling prices as a negative thing: Deflation Takes Shine Off Sales for Italy’s Shopkeepers.

The appearance of deflation in Italy suggests a worrying spread from Spain, another peripheral eurozone economy, where it reared its head this year. Deflation is now stalking the home of Rome-born Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, who has sounded the alarm about the need to restore growth across the continent and has taken aggressive and unorthodox measures to do so.

Matteo Renzi, the youthful prime minister who gained power in February with an agenda of radical economic and political reform, acknowledged last week that growth would in fact be “around zero” this year.

The hope is that lower prices will start luring Italians back to the shops. But policy makers – particularly Mr Draghi and other ECB officials – do not seem to be betting on the resurgence of the Italian consumer.

They have been more focused on – and fearful of – the worst case: that the country, along with the eurozone more generally, could fall into a deflationary spiral, in which consumers hold off purchases in the expectation that prices will fall even further. Deflation would also raise the real value of Italy’s monumental €2.1tn public debt load, causing angst among investors.

“Even if you think the probability of damaging deflation is low, if it were to happen it’s a disaster,” says Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit, the Italian bank. “The ECB was right to take out an insurance policy against it,” he adds, referring to measures including interest rate cuts the central bank took this month.

Deflationary Spiral Nonsense

The idea that falling prices are bad for the economy is ridiculous. Taking out insurance against falling prices is even more absurd.

Ask any consumer if he wants lower gas prices, lower food prices, lower hotel prices, lower computer prices, or lower prices on any consumer items and the answer will be yes.

Next, ask any consumer who needs a coat, computer, TV, or any other needed item if he would he wait a year to buy one because prices were falling.

Assuming the consumer had enough money to buy any needed item, he would buy that item now.

Thus, the entire deflationary spiral concept of consumers delaying purchases because prices are falling is ridiculous.

Keynesian Theory vs. Practice

Keynesian theory says consumers will delay purchases if prices are falling. In practice, all things being equal, it’s precisely the opposite.

If consumers think prices are too high, they will wait for bargains. It happens every year at Christmas and all year long on discretionary items not in immediate need.

In general, people like bargains, and when bargains get big enough, people do not wait for even bigger bargains. Consider Christmas shopping. Most do not wait until after Christmas when bargains are even bigger than before Christmas.

Yet, these ridiculous myths of consumers waiting because prices are falling as opposed to consumers waiting for prices they can afford have been repeated so many times that people actually believe them.

Delays For Other Reasons

People do delay purchases if they don’t have a job, or the money, or they perceive prices are simply too high.

The problem is typically debt, not falling prices. If consumers have too much debt or too little income they cannot buy. If businesses have too much debt they cannot expand. If governments have too much debt, they eventually run into problems.

Assets vs. Consumer Goods

Asset prices are different. Consumers will buy houses, stocks, bonds, land, and other assets if they perceive central bank inflation will bail them out with ever-increasing asset price inflation.

Eventually prices get ridiculously stretched. Then when the greater fool stops buying, bubbles burst, asset prices fall, and then debt deflation takes over. Debts cannot be paid back, businesses cannot hire, and consumers out of a job cannot shop.

Keynesian Nonsense

Keynesian economists want government to pick up the slack when businesses fail. That’s nonsense. Several decades of Keynesian and Monetarist attempts to jump start the Japanese economy with nothing to show for it but debt to the tune of 250% of GDP should be proof enough.

Falling prices are never the problem. Rather it’s central-bank sponsored inflation that causes asset bubbles and promotes debt and malinvestment that is the problem.

The solution, that no central bank cares to promote, is to not sponsor assets bubbles in the first place. Once in asset bubbles, the best thing to do is let the bust play out.

Assuming Japan remains on its current path, the upcoming collapse in the Yen will provide the final proof that Keynesian economics is pure idiocy.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/09/deflationary-spiral-nonsense-keynesian.html#DXtd305xthzTz8IY.99

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Beijing, Nov 10, 2015 (AFP)
Consumer inflation in China fell to 1.3 percent year-on-year in October, authorities said Tuesday, in another sign of weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

The consumer price index figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics was the lowest since May and was well below market expectations of 1.5 percent in survey of analysts by Bloomberg News.

marketwatch: The Bank of Japan and other central banks around the world may need to try radical new easy-money policies to stave off the rising specter of deflation and revive sickly economic prospects, the International Monetary Fund’s new chief economist warns.

“I worry about deflation globally,” new IMF Economic Counselor Maurice Obstfeld said in an interview ahead of an annual IMF research conference that focuses this year on unconventional monetary policies and exchange rate regimes. “It may be time to start thinking outside the box.”

Weak–and in some cases falling–price growth has plagued Japan, Europe, the U.S. and other major economies since the financial crisis. Plummeting commodity prices are exacerbating the so-called “lowflation” and deflation problems that curb investment, spending and growth.

Surveying several dozen of the largest economies around the world, Obstfeld said the number of countries experiencing low inflation is rising. Combined with slowing emerging market output, ballooning government debt and monetary policy constrained by the lower limits of interest rates, the deflation risk is fueling fears the global economy could be fast stuck into a deep low-growth mire.

An expanded version of this story is available at WSJ.com

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SEOUL sindonews – Korea Selatan (Korsel) mencatat inflasi tertinggi tahunan pada Oktober 2015 selama 11 bulan. Harga konsumen naik 0,9% pada Oktober dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya.

Hal tersebut tetap dalam kisaran 0% sejak Desember 2014 ketika inflasi berada pada angka 0,8%. Di tengah perpanjangan inflasi yang rendah, bank sentral diperkirakan akan memangkas target inflasi menjadi 2,5%-3,5% pada Desember untuk revisi reguler setiap tiga tahun.

“Kami mengharapkan Bank of Korea dan pemerintah setuju untuk menurunkan target inflasi dari 3,0% menjadi 2,5%,” kata Kwon Young-Sun, seorang ekonom yang berbasis di Hong-Kong di Nomura International seperti dikutip dari Xinhua, Selasa (3/11/2015).

Inflasi harga konsumen, melampaui ekspektasi pasar 0,7% dan naik dari 0,6% pada bulan sebelumnya. Inflasi Oktober juga menandai yang tercepat sejak November tahun lalu yang mencapai 1% karena naiknya harga barang pertanian.

Harga bawang merah melonjak 91% dan daging sapi naik 12%. Harga pelayanan publik naik tajam, dengan tarif bus kota dan kereta bawah tanah sebesar 9% dan 15,2%.

Harga konsumen inti, kecuali produk pertanian dan minyak atsiri, naik 2,3% pada Oktober dari tahun sebelumnya, atau berada di atas 2% berturut-turut dalam 10 bulan. Inflasi inti tidak termasuk energi dan makanan, meningkat 2,6% secara tahunan.

Harga pertanian, peternakan dan perikanan, naik 3% bulan lalu, dengan harga bawang putih, daging babi dan pear melonjak 33,9%, 3,7%, dan 17,9%.

Harga bensin dan solar anjlok masing-masing 15,9% dan 20,9%, dengan harga elpiji untuk mobil dan memasak membukukan penurunan dua digit. Harga untuk listrik, air keran dan gas alam juga turun 7,2%.
(izz)

source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1058408/35/inflasi-korsel-oktober-naik-tertinggi-selama-11-bulan-1446523838

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JAKARTA – Deflasi yang terjadi pada Oktober 2015 disambut baik oleh Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Bambang PS Brodjonegoro. Pasalnya, hal tersebut menunjukkan perekonomian yang stabil.

“Bagus, cek dulu core inflation-nya gimana. Kalau stabil ya berarti ekonominya stabil,” kata Bambang saat ditemui di Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu), Jakarta, Senin (2/11/2015).

Seperti diketahui, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat terjadi deflasi Oktober sebesar 0,08 persen. Adapun inflasi pada tahun kalender (Januari–Oktober) yakni 2,16 persen, inflasi tahun ke tahun (year on year) 6,25 persen dan inflasi komponen inti 0,23 persen, sementara inflasi komponen inti year on year 5,02 persen.

Menurut Bambang, rendahnya inflasi bukan karena melemahnya daya beli. Namun, akibat harga pangan yang tidak melonjak.

“Ini kan lebih karena volatil-nya rendah. Kita lihat core inflation kalau mau cek pelemahan atau enggak,” katanya.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/02/20/1242186/menkeu-yakin-inflasi-bukan-karena-daya-beli-lesu
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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BEIJING (REUTERS) – Consumer inflation in China eased more than expected in September while producer prices fell for the 43rd straight month, adding to concerns over growing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.6 per cent in September from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS) said on Wednesday (Oct 14), lower than expectations of 1.8 per cent and down from August’s 2.0 per cent.

The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 per cent from a year ago, in line with the expectations and the same rate of decline as in August, which was the biggest drop since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

the guardian: The coming ‘tsunami of debt’ and financial crisis in AmericaForces that caused the world economy to collapse, including income inequality and debt, are again in action, and could drag corporations down in their wake Dimitri Papadimitriou Sunday 15 June 2014 17.58 BST
Last modified on Friday 3 October 2014 10.56 BSTThe US Congressional Budget Office is projecting a continued economic recovery. So why look down the road – say, to 2017 – and worry?Here’s why: because the debt held by American households is rising ominously. And unless our economic policies change, that debt balloon, powered by radical income inequality, is going to become the next bust.Our macro models at the Levy Economics Institute are showing that the US economy is about to face a repeat of pre-crisis-style, debt-led growth, based on increased borrowing. Falling government deficits are being replaced by rising debts on everyone else’s ledgers – well, almost everyone else’s.What’s emerging is a new sort of speculative bubble, this time based on consumer and corporate credit.Right now, America is wrestling a three-headed monster of weak foreign demand, tight government budgets and high income inequality, with every sign that these conditions will continue. With that trio in place, the anticipated growth isn’t going to be propelled by an export bonanza, or by a government investment boom.It will have to be driven by spending. Even a limping recovery like the one we’re nursing along today depends on domestic demand – consumer spending not just by the wealthy, but by everyone else.We believe that Americans will keep consuming at the same ever-rising rates of past decades, during good times and bad. But for the vast majority, wages and wealth aren’t going up, so we’re anticipating that the majority of Americans – the 90% – will once again do what was done before: borrow, and then borrow more.By early 2017, with growth likely to stall even according to CBO predictions, it should be apparent that we’re reliving an alarming history. Middle- and low-income households have been following a trajectory of an ever-higher ratio of debt to income. That same ratio has been decreasing for the most well-off 10%, who are continuing to see debt decline and wealth rise.Why is the relationship between the debt of the 90% and the gains of the 10% so significant?The evidence demonstrates that the de-leveraging of the very rich and the indebtedness of almost everyone else move in tandem; they follow the same trend line.In short, there’s a strong and continuous correlation between the rich getting richer, and the poor – make that the 90% – going deeper into debt.That the share of income and wealth to the richest has skyrocketed is certainly not a new revelation. The heralded data tabulations of Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez have demonstrated just how spectacular the plutocrats’ portion became in the run-up to the Great Recession. They codified the belief that no one else can ever catch up with the very wealthiest.One important explanation for that consolidation of wealth emerged from our latest research: The more – proportionally – that the top 10% has prospered, saved and invested (naturally, the gains found their way into the financial markets), the more the bottom 90% has borrowed.Look at the record of how these phenomena have travelled in lockstep. In the first three decades after the second world war, the income of the 90% rose at the same pace as its consumption. But after the mid-1970s, a gap formed – the trend lines on earning and outlays spread apart. Spending continued apace. Real income, meanwhile, stagnated. It was lower in 2012 than it had been forty years earlier. That ever-increasing gap between income and consumption has been filled by borrowing.
These were the debt dynamics in the lead-up to the recession. But they are also the dynamics leading out of the crisis, and continuing today with no end in sight.

Before and after the crash, the fortunes of the most fortunate sped upward. Between 1983 and 2010, for example, the richest 20% increased in wealth by 100%. But their proportion of debt to wealth fell.

The bottom 40%, meanwhile, lost 270% in wealth.

It was much applauded when households began to rapidly pay down debt after 2007. And yet, despite this, their debt to equity ratio actually rose. With incomes plunging and the value of their assets – notably, housing – in a free-fall, they couldn’t de-leverage fast enough. Debt outpaced everything else.

Insolvency for the 90% – the overwhelming majority of Americans – has become, in the decade’s catch phrase, “the new normal”. Unsustainable? Of course.

The debt picture is also changing dramatically for corporations. Historically, the private sector, which often goes by the moniker Corporate America, had not, overall, been borrowers. They increased their revenues far more than they borrowed money. Their net lending was exceptionally low, hovering at around 4% of GDP between 1960 and the mid 1990s.
Tent cities, like this one in Sacramento, California, have sprung up as more Americans go homeless.

After the crisis, corporations, like households, pulled way back on borrowing. But, also like households, they are now increasing their debt. The steep rise began for non-financial corporations in 2010 (for families and individuals, debt levels began to go upwards again in 2013). We think these businesses will add another $4tn of debt between now and 2017.

Under the current disastrous economic and tax policies, we can look forward to rapid increases in debt for both corporations and households from at least 2015 to 2017: a tsunami of debt.

Alternatively, a teeth-gritting brake on household and corporate spending would be no help at all.

That’s because if levels of debt and consumer consumption go down, the nation would move into what’s called secular stagnation: anemic growth, if any, and higher unemployment. The CBO projections for growth can’t possibly be met unless Americans take on massive liabilities, piling debt upon debt. Without debt accumulation, there wouldn’t be enough demand – spending – to keep the economy moving.

To paraphrase Voltaire’s words on God, even if bubbles and debt did not exist, it would be necessary to invent them. And that is exactly what we are doing.

Wall Street is getting increasingly nervous about the prospects for recession, both on a global and domestic level.

Slowing global growth has been one of the predominant investing themes in 2015, causing enough turmoil to send both the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) and the MSCI World Index (MSCI: .WORLD)down about 4 percent.

The $73.5 trillion global economy is expected to grow 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.6 percent in 2016, according to the latest International Monetary Fund projections. Those numbers, though, are heading lower and could be revised even more before all is said and done.

Citigroup economist Willem Buiter looks at the world landscape and sees an economy performing substantially below potential output, which he uses as the general benchmark for the idea of a global recession. With that in mind, he said the chances of a global recession in 2016 are growing.

“We think that the evidence suggests that the global output gap is negative and that the global economy is currently growing at a rate below global potential growth. The (negative) output gap is therefore widening,” Buiter said in a note to clients. He added, “from an output gap that was probably quite close to zero fairly recently, continued sub-par global growth is likely to put the global economy back into recession, if indeed the world ever fully emerged of the recession caused by the global financial crisis.”

Recessions aren’t necessarily a bad things for investors.

Related Quotes

In the 12 recessions after World War II, the S&P 500 has gone up six times afterwards and down the other six times. The average has been a decline of 3.1 percent, followed by a 12.9 percent increase six months out and 15.3 percent gain a year after, according to figures from Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ.

Economists look at global recessions a bit different than national ones. Though there is no strict definition of the word, a country is generally thought to be in “recession” if it registers consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Read More IMF chief economist: We’re trying to be on the ball

On a global scale, though, the standard is different. Absolute growth less than 3 percent, or GDP adjusted for market exchange rates below 2 percent, is generally good enough to call a recession. By either measure, the world is teetering on the line, with 2015 adjusted growth pegged at 2.5 percent and 2016 at 3 percent.

Closer to home, the prospects for recession seem low, though worries have increased in recent days.

Liz Ann Sonders, the often-bullish chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, generated some talk on Wall Street this week when she announced that the firm, which manages $2.46 trillion for clients, has turned neutral on stocks.

Her worries are twofold, and both involve recessions: One, the much-discussed potential for an earnings recession, the other a “relatively low” chance for an outright economic recession that she nonetheless believes should be considered.

Read More Hedge funds’ best idea: Buy Russia?!?!

Corporate earnings on the S&P 500 are expected to decline just over 5 percent in the third quarter, according to estimates from both FactSet and S&P Capital IQ—Estimize puts the decline closer to 2.2 percent—and projections for the fourth quarter are coming down at a steady clip as well. Where at one point the final three-month period was expected to show 12 percent earnings growth, the estimate now is for a nearly 1 percent drop. Full-year earnings growth is now projected to be -0.75 percent, according to S&P Capital IQ.

On balance, Sonders believes employment and income growth are “still relatively healthy” despite the dismal September nonfarm payrolls report showing just 142,000 new jobs for the month and flat salaries. She also points to strength in housing, car sales and construction spending.

Read More Why the jobs picture is even worse than you think

However, weakness in earnings and profit margins, widening credit spreads and slowing global trade remain significant headwinds, she said.

“We believe an economic recession remains unlikely near-term, but we are on watch,” Sonders said in a note. “We are maintaining our more cautious ‘neutral’ rating on US equities, which means investors should not take any additional risk above and beyond their long-term allocation to equities.”

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telegraph: The decision by the US Federal Reserve not  to increase interest rates highlights the difficulties of reversing the emergency policies implemented to support the global economy after 2008.

The reality is that the level of global debt is simply too great to be dealt with by conventional means. Since 2007, it  has grown by $57trn (£37trn), or 17 per cent of GDP, as public and private debt has risen in the big economies. In mid  2014, global debt was $199trn, or  286 per cent of the world’s GDP, up from $87trn in 2000.

If unfunded entitlement obligations such as pensions and healthcare are included, the level of indebtedness rises dramatically. A crude measure of sovereign net worth can be calculated by subtracting these liabilities and government debt from the value of government assets and tax revenues. As a percentage of GDP, this measure shows the US at minus 800 per cent, France minus 600 per cent and the UK minus 1,000 per cent. Italy is at minus 1,250 per cent and Greece minus 1,600 per cent.

Even in emerging countries where levels of borrowing were less extreme at the commencement of the crisis, debt levels have increased. In Asia and Latin America, bank credit has risen at double-digit rates in recent years. In China, debt levels have quadrupled.

Reduction of these liabilities is extremely difficult, perhaps impossible in a world of no or low growth and low inflation. Despite the view of some analysts that this is a “beautiful deleveraging”, the reality is that the process has barely begun. It will have a big economic impact and take many years.

Traditional tools for dealing with high debts – austerity, growth, inflation or default/restructuring – are unavailable or unpalatable. Policymakers will rely on existing fiscal and especially extreme monetary policies, such as low or zero rates and quantitative easing, to avoid economic collapse.

A sequence of events may be repeated. A weak economy forces policymakers to implement a programme of expansionary fiscal measures and QE. If the economy responds, higher levels of economic activity and some of side-effects of QE will encourage a withdrawal of stimulus.

This will result in higher interest rates and a slowing economy, which will trigger expansionary initiatives – leading to another round of the same cycle. If the economy does not respond to expansionary policies, there will be pressure for additional stimulus.

Expansion in the form of QE can be expected, encompassing purchases of a wider range of assets – as in Japan. As desperation increases, more extreme policy measures can also be expected, reflecting what Edmund Burke called the utopianism of the professors”.

Central banks give “profits” from QE to governments. These profits represent the difference between the yield on government bonds and the nominal cost of reserves created to buy them. The fictional profit may be used to finance tax cuts. The US government has considered cancelling US Treasury bonds held by the Federal Reserve to reduce debt. This ignores the loss to the Fed from the writedown of its holdings.

In a variation of the helicopter drops of money favoured by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, one scheme advocates a “treasure hunt” where cash is buried and the population is urged to seek it out and spend it. Other proposals include finite time limits on currency, which would lose all value if not spent by the specified date.

It is possible that the global economy will become trapped in QE for ever.

Since the collapse of its debt-fuelled bubble in 1989-90, Japan has been mired in two decades of minimal growth and disinflation or deflation, despite repeated attempts to reflate the economy.

Public finances have deteriorated as chronic budget deficits have resulted in government debt increasing to  240 per cent of GDP. Tax revenues are less than 50 per cent of budget outlays, with 24 per cent of the budget spent servicing debt.

Japan’s total debt, at 450 per cent of GDP, is higher today than at the onset of the crisis. Interest rates have been at or near zero for more than a decade. The Bank of Japan has used repeated bouts of QE to try to boost activity.

In early 2013, Japan, under new prime minister Shinzo Abe and his central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda, launched new initiatives – combining fiscal expansion with a further, very large QE programme.

The scale of the programme exceeds anything attempted elsewhere, roughly double the Federal Reserve’s bond purchases. The initiative sought to encourage consumption and investment, increased borrowing and higher inflation to create a virtuous cycle of growth.

To date, the programme has weakened the yen and boosted stock and property prices, without much effect on the real economy. Japan may provide a case study in the problems now confronting the world.

jatuh hat1: RAKYAT DIBUAI BI RATE, RAKYAT OGAH BLANJA, ekonomi TUMBUH MINIMALIS, itu MASALAH BI lho

MANFAATken MOMENTUM PENUNDAAN KENAEKAN THE FED FUND RATE K 2016 dengan KEBIJAKSANAAN BI RATE DI BAWAH 7%

 

ikon analisis gw

BI Rate tinggi menyebabkan PERBANKAN INDONESIA KALUT

cost of fund TINGGI, perbankan OGAH BERI KREDIT, apalagi ke USAHA MIKRO n KECIL n MENENGAH, yang berjubel itu

bisnis n industri OGAH EKSPANSI, apalagi dengan bunga kredit AMAT TINGGI

rakyat kelas menengah OGAH BLANJA, mending SIMPAN DANA RAKSASA di PERBANKAN karena BUNGA AMAT TINGGI

BI RATE TINGGI bukan MEMBANTU PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA 2015

BI RATE TINGGI MEMBUAT RAKYAT OGAH MENGAMBIL RISIKO BERBLANJA, padahal DISKON TLAH DIGELAR BESAR-BESARan

BI RATE TINGGI KEBIJAKAN DEWAN GUBERNUR BI YANG TINGGI HATI

karna MERASA BETE imbas UU YANG MAKIN MENGHILANGKAN FUNGSI BI, karena hadirnya PPATK, OJK, n LPS

well, Bank Indonesia ga ngerti teori moneter yang sebenarnya, cuma tau soal perbankan aza dah pengen ngatur EKONOMI MAKRO kita

sayang sekali ! AKHIRNYA, turun juga TUH:

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Jakarta -Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan atau BI Rate di tingkat 6,5%. Hal yang sama berlaku untuk BI 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate, tidak berubah.

Hal ini disampaikan oleh Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI, Tirta Segara, dalam keterangannya di kantor BI, Jakarta, Senin (27/6/2016).

“Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI pada 20-21 Juli 2016 memutuskan mempertahankan BI Rate sebesar 6,50% dengan suku bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 4,50% dan suku bunga Lending Facility sebesar 7,00%. Bank Indonesia juga memutuskan BI 7 Day Reverse Repo Rate tetap sebesar 5,25%,” kata Tirta.

BI memandang stabilitas makro ekonomi tetap terjaga dengan inflasi, defisit transaksi berjalan dan nilai tukar rupiah cukup stabil.

(wdl/ang)

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JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Bank Indonesia (BI) menilai stabilitas makroekonomi Indonesia terus terjaga.

Hal ini menjadi pertimbangan bank sentral dalam menurunkan suku bunga acuan BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin dari 6,75 persen menjadi 6,5 persen.

Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter BI Juda Agung menjelaskan, ada tiga hal yang menjadi bahan diskusi Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI yang diakhiri dengan penyesuaian BI Rate.

Pertama, stabilitas makroekonomi terus terjaga, diindikasikan oleh inflasi dan defisit transaksi berjalan.

“Inflasi pada posisi 4 persen, bahkan sedikit lebih rendah. Dari sisi transaksi berjalan kami perkirakan lebih baik. Defisit transaksi berjalan tahun ini diprediksi 2,2 persen dari PDB,” kata Juda di Jakarta, Kamis (16/6/2016).

Dari sisi nilai tukar rupiah, pada bulan Mei lalu memang terpantau sedikit melemah. Ini disebabkan adanya risk off setelah rilis komite FOMC Amerika Serikat yang dirilis pada 18 Mei 2016 lalu.

Meskipun demikian, ujar Juda, setelah tanggal 3 Juni 2016 rupiah menguat kembali setelah laporan non-farm payment di AS memburuk.

Juda mengatakan, bank sentral mencatat aliran modal yang masuk ke Indonesia hingga 13 Juni 2016 mencapai 1,6 miliar dollar AS, yang membuat pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah kondusif.

Selain itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi juga menjadi pertimbangan BI.

“Di kuartal II 2016 perkiraan kami sedikit lebih rendah dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya. Indikator-indikator konsumsi dan penjualan ritel ada perbaikan tapi belum terlalu kuat. Investasi swasta non bangunan masih sangat lemah,” jelas Juda.

Terakhir, bank sentral juga memantau keputusan bank sentral AS Federal Reserve yang memutuskan untuk menahan suku bunga Fed Fund Rate.

Juda menuturkan, keputusan The Fed tersebut menjadi kesempatan bagi BI untuk menurunkan suku bunga.

“Tadi malam The Fed menunda kenaikan Fed Fund Rate. Ini menjadi kesempatan BI untuk memanfaatkan ruang pelonggaran kebijakan. Tiga pertimbangan itu menjadi latar belakang kenapa BI menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin,” jelas Juda.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pemerintah melunak dan mensinyalkan akan menurunkan asumsi laju produk domestik bruto dari usulan yang ada dalam RAPBNP 2016 sebesar 5,3% menjadi 5,1%-5,2%.

Menteri Keuangan Bambang P.S. Brodjonegoro mengatakan revisi ke bawah dari usulan yang ada saat ini masih bisa ditoleransi. Namun, pihaknya menyatakan tetap harus lebih tinggi dari capaian tahun lalu 4,79% dan tembus 5%.

“Pokoknya saya 5,1% ok, 5,2% ok. Di atas 5% harus,” ujarnya setelah rapat kerja dengan Badan Anggaran (Banggar) DPR, Senin (6/6/2016).

Bambang mengurai faktor pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional tiap kuartal masih dipegang pos konsumsi rumah tangga. Pada kuartal II, konsumsi tersebut didorong adanya bulan Puasa. Pada kuartal III, konsumsi rumah tangga terpantik perayaan Idulfitri.

Pada akhir tahun, momentum Natal dan Tahun Baru menjadi stimulus. Di setiap kuartal, pemerintah memproyeksi ada perbaikan investasi pemerintah dan swasta. Pada saat yang bersamaan, kinerja ekspor diperkirakan membaik.

Kendati demikian, dalam RAPBNP 2016, pemerintah masih tetap mengusulkan angka 5,3%. Sementara itu, IMF, World Bank, dan ADB mengestimasi pertumbuan ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini masing-masing 4,9%, 5,1%, dan 5,2%.

Dilihat dari sektoralnya, pemerintah mengestimasi ada perbaikan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian walau sebatas 0,2%. Tahun lalu, sektor ini mengalami kontraksi 5,1%.

Sektor industri pengolahan diharapkan tetap tumbuh tinggi hingga 5,4% dari realisasi pertumbuhan tahun lalu 4,2%. Estimasi tingginya pertumbuhan itu dikarenakan berbagai insentif yang sudah diliuncurkan seperti tax holiday, tax allowance, serta pengembangan kawasan industri.

Sejalan dengan perbaikan ekonomi, lanjut Bambang, perekonomian tahun depan diperkirakan tumbuh 5,3%-5,9%.  Kendati demikian, risiko perlambatan ekonomi China, rendahnya harga komoditas, dan kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat harus diwaspadai.

Sebelumnya, Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus D.W. Martowardojo mengatakan tahun ini ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan ada di kisaran 5%-5,4%, tapi mengarah atau bias bawah sekitar 5%-5,2%.

“Secara umum lebih besar dari perlambatan ekonomi global. Kedua, demand yang turun karena perlambatan ekonomi dunia,” ujarnya.

Harga komoditas yang lemah berakibat kepada ekspor dan kinerja korporasi. Bank sentral berharap akan ada perbaikan investasi swasta di semester II seiring dengan penggenjotan belanja pemerintah.

Jakarta kontan. Bank Indonesia (BI) kembali mengungkapkan sikapnya yang pesimis terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2016, yang diajukan pemerintah. Gubernur BI Agus Martowardojo melihat, faktor ekonomi global sangat dominan mempengaruhi perekonomian Indonesia.

Salah satunya terkait penurunan harga komoditas dan pelambatan ekonomi di beberapa negara. Hal itu akan mengurangi permintaan global, yang imbasnya kepada ekonomi dalam negeri.

Oleh karena itu, dari range target pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dipasang, otoritas moneter sebesar 5%-5,4% akan mengarah ke batas menengah ke bawah. Yaitu antara 5% hingga maksimal 5,2%.

Ini artinya, lebih rendah dari target pemerintah sebesar 5,3%. “Kami harapkan di semester dua, pengeluaran pemerintah dan sektor swasta mendorong pertumbuhan lebih baik,” kata Agus, Kamis (2/6) di Jakarta.

BI berharap demand dari sektor swasta meningkat, sehingga spendingpemerintah bisa terserap. Begitupun dengan konsumsi rumah tangga diharapkan ada peningkatan.

Dengan begitu, pertumbuhan ekonomi bisa lebih tinggi dari realisasi triwulan pertama yang hanya 4,9%.

Untuk nilai tukar rupiah, Agus bilang akan berada dalam range Rp 13.500 per Dollar AS hingga Rp 13.800 per Dollar AS. Perkiraan itu telah mempertimbangkan rencana kenaikan Fed fund rate tahun ini.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Indeks manufaktur Indonesia terkoreksi pada Mei 2016, menyusul stagnasi output pada periode tersebut.

Indeks manufaktur atau Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) Manufaktur Indonesia dari Nikkei bertahan di atas titik krusial 50,0 di bulan Mei.

Angka itu turun sedikit dari 50,9 di bulan April ke 50,6, akan tetapi indeks mengarah pada perbaikan marjinal kondisi bisnis secara keseluruhan.

Pollyanna De Lima, ekonom Markit sebagai penyusun survei, mengatakan stagnasi output di bulan Mei adalah berita yang tidak diharapkan, mengingat bahwa pelaku manufaktur baru saja menyaksikan akhir dari periode berkepanjangan – 17 bulan – penurunan dalam produksi.

“Total permintaan baru naik pada kisaran lemah daripada bulan April, sementara permintaan eksternal terus menurun,” ujarnya melalui rilis resmi, Rabu (1/6/2016).

Akan tetapi, tambahnya, pandangan ke depan masih menggembirakan karena perusahaan terus mempekerjakan tenaga tambahan dan menaikkan aktivitas pembelian mereka ke titik tertinggi sejak bulan Juli 2014, dengan memperkirakan bahwa kenaikan permintaan akan terjadi.

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JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Ekonom sekaligus mantan Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri turut berkomentar atas penurunan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi oleh Bank Indonesia menjadi 5-5,4 persen, dari perkiraan awal otoritas moneter itu yang di kisaran 5,2-5,6 persen.

Menurut Chatib, angka revisi hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI, Kamis (19/5/2016) lebih realistis.

“Kalau Bank Indonesia bikin 5-5,4 persen, bisa mencerminkan situasi yang sesungguhnya,” kata Chatib di Jakarta.

Sementara itu, apabila pemerintah menaksir pertumbuhan ekonomi minimal di level 5,3 persen, menurutnya, dibutuhkan extra effort yang luar biasa.

Meski menilai proyeksi yang disampaikan Bank Indonesia lebih realistis dibandingkan proyeksi pemerintah, Chatib pribadi memandang pertumbuhan ekonomi mencapai level 5 persen tahun ini saja sudah cukup bagus.

“Buat saya kalau melihat situasi global sekarang, kita tumbuh 5 persen sudah baik,” ucap Chatib.

Lebih lanjut dia bilang, konsumsi rumah tangga tahun ini masih diproyeksikan flat, begitu juga dengan kinerja ekspor-impor.

Rendahnya permintaan dari China utamanya akan menekan upaya peningkatkan ekspor.

Di sisi lain, stimulus yang dilakukan pemerintah akan sangat tergantung dari penerimaan pajak.

Chatib menambahkan, apabila penerimaan pajak mengalami shortfall yang besar, mau tidak mau belanja (spending) harus dipotong, agar defisit anggaran tidak melampaui batas yang diperbolehkan undang-undang, yakni tiga persen.

“Dengan kondisi seperti itu kalau dapat (mencapai) 5,0-5,1 persen, menurut saya sudah oke,” pungkas Chatib.

Sebagai informasi, usai RDGI Kamis kemarin, Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan, dikoreksinya proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi karena otoritas moneter itu melihat masih adanya pelemahan perekonomian global.

“Kami menyimak bahwa kajian terhadap negara berkembang di dunia terjadi koreksi cukup tajam. Tentu hal ini berdampak pada Indonesia,” kata Agus.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia memprediksi kurs rupiah atas dolar Amerika serikat akan mengalami penguatan hingga akhir tahun.

“Rupiah juga masih akan menguat hingga akhir tahun terutama terdorong faktor global,” kata Ekonom Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia  Rangga Cipta dalam risetnya yang diterima  Selasa (1/3/2016).

Penguatan rupiah diyakini, ujarnya, walaupun belum ada berita baik yang baru dari domestik. Indikator pertumbuhan, kecuali penjualan semen, menunjukkan perlambatan di Januari 2016.

“Minggu ini ditunggu cadangan devisa yang berpeluang turun tipis. Ruang penguatan rupiah minggu ini masih tersedia,”kata Rangga.

Dikemukakan rupiah masih mampu menguat minggu lalu walaupun dolar menguat terhadap mayoritas kurs di Asia, akibat baiknya data AS relatif terhadap Zona Euro dan Jepang.

Naiknya harga minyak, juga mengangkat optimisme di negara pengekspor komoditas seperti Indonesia.

“Tetapi harga BBM Premium yang tidak dipangkas belum akan membuat ekspektasi inflasi turun drastis  di Februari 2016 inflasi naik ke 4,42% YoY,”kata Rangga.

Namun, ujarnya, peluang BI Rate turun masih ada.

“Kami masih perkirakan BI Rate ke 6.75% di akhir tahun – penurunan 50 bps lagi bisa dilakukan jika harga BBM Premium dipangkas,”kata Rangga.

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JAKARTA kontan. Ketua Komisi XI DPR, Fadel Muhammad mengapresiasi langkah Bank Indonesia menurunkan tingkat acuan suku bunga atau BI Rate sehingga akan memberi vitamin bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.

“Kami apresiasi karena akhirnya BI menurunkan juga BI rate menjadi 7,25 persen, setelah hampir setahun tidak mengalami penurunan. Tapi kedepannya, kami harapkan terus mengalami penurunan,” katanya dalam keterangan tertulisnya di Jakarta, Jumat.

Fadel mengatakan, penurunan 25 poin, dari 7,5 menjadi 7,25 persen mampu memberi stimulus bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Menurut dia, kegiatan bisnis di dalam negeri akan kembali bergeliat seiring dengan penurunan suku bunga acuan tersebut.

“Memang, tidak ada alasan bagi Bank Indonesia tidak menurunkan BI rate. Selain laju inflasi yang stabil, likuiditas perbankan juga cukup baik,” ujarnya.

Dia juga berharap, seluruh bank segera menurunkan suku bunganya agar pelaku usaha di Indonesia mendapat keringanan dalam permodalan.

Menurut dia, penurunan bunga kredit dapat menambah akselerasi sektor usaha kecil menengah (UKM) lebih baik.

“Karena selama ini masalah permodalan menjadi kendala besar bagi pelaku usaha di Indonesia. Padahal, pertumbuhan UKM menjadi tulang punggung pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional,” tuturnya.

Karena itu menurut dia, dengan penurunan suku bunga KUR dan penambahan subsidi KUR hingga Rp10,6 triliun yang sudah dilakukan, penurunan BI Rate mampu menciptakan ekonomi nasional lebih likuid dan lebih berjalan dengan baik.

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JAKARTA kontan. Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk menurunkan suku bunga acuan atau BI Rate pada posisi 25 basis poin menjadi 7,25%.

Sebelumnya, BI Rate berada pada posisi 7,5%. “Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia memutuskan menurunkan BI Rate sebsar 25 basis poin menjadi 7,25%,” kata Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI Tirta Segara di Jakarta, Kamis (14/1).

Adapun suku bunga Deposit Facility berada pada posisi 5,25% dan Lending Facility 7,75%.

“Keputusan ini sejalan dengan pernyataan BI sebelumnya bahwa ruang pelonggaran kebijakan moneter semakin terbuka terjaganya stabilitas makroekonomi serta mempertimbangkan meredanya kepastian pasar keuangan global Fed Fund Rate,” jelas Tirta. (Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan)

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JAKARTA ID-Ekonom Senior Kenta Institute, Eric Alexander Sugandi memperkirakan Bank Indonesia akan menurunkan suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 7,25 persen dari 7,5 persen pada kuartal I 2016.

Eric dalam paparan ekonomi-politik Kenta Institute di Jakarta, Senin, mengatakan otoritas moneter berkesempatan untuk menurunkan BI Rate karena fundamental ekonomi, terutama laju inflasi hingga Januari 2016 terkendali dan lebih baik dari target.

Dia mengakui tekanan kepada sektor finansial akibat perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok belakangan ini semakin menguat. Namun, menurutnya, volaitilitas di pasar finansial domestik lebih karena sentimen eksternal dari kawasan, dan sifatnya hanya sementara.

“Prediksi kami (penurunan BI rate) akan bertahap, kuartal I 25 basis poin (bps), antara kuartal II dan II 25 basis poin, dan kuartal IV 25 basis poin,” tuturnya.

Sehingga, lembaga kajian Kenta memprediksikan level bunga acuan di akhir 2016 akan berada di 6,75 persen. Eric memberikan catatan, pelonggaran moneter yang cukup signifikan ini bisa terjadi jika BI melihat prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016 juga berjalan baik.

“Saya pikir penurunan 25 basis poin, hampir di setiap kuartal ini masih ditoleransi,” ujarnya.

Bank Indonesia dijadwalkan melakukan Rapat Dewan Gubernur pada Rabu – Kamis, 13 – 14 Januari 2016, untuk menentukan kebijakan moneter pada Januari 2016 ini, setelah 11 bulan BI mempertahankan kebijakan moneter ketat dengan suku bunga acuan di 7,5 persen.

Sementara, suku bunga acuan Federal Reserve (The Fed), Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat, diproyeksikan Eric, akan naik bertahap sebesar 25 basis poin pada kuartal II 2016 dan kuartal I 2017, menjadi 1,25 persen.

Secara umum, Eric menilai tantangan terbesar dari eksternal bagi Indonesia pada 2016 adalah perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok. Status mata uang Tiongkok, Yuan, yang telah menjadi mata uang internasional, menurut Eric, akan semakin mendorong sikap Bank Sentral Tiongkok untuk melakukan devaluasi, mengingat kini nilai Yuan sudah “overvalued”.

“Jadi devaluasi bisa saja terjadi lagi, entah untuk perbaikan ekspor Tiongkok atau memang Yuan yang ’overvalued,” ujar kandidat doktor ilmu ekonomi dari Universitas Indonesia ini.

Gonjang-ganjing ekonomi Tiongkok, menurut Eric, akan lebih banyak bertransmisi ke sektor perdagangan Indonesia, daripada pasar finansial. Oleh karena itu, Eric masih berpendapat ekspor Indonesia akan stagnan atau bahkan lebih buruk pada 2016.

Hal itu ditambah dengan potensi peningkatan laju impor barang modal dan bahan baku, karena Indonesia sangat berambisi merealisasikan proyek-proyek infrastruktur pada 2016 ini.

“Jadi mungkin surplus neraca perdagangan akan menurun,” ucap dia.

Untuk pasar finansial, Eric melihat, dampak instabilitas Tiongkok hanya akan bersifat jangka pendek. Dia memperkirakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS pada 2016 akan bergerak di level Rp13.800.

Adapun penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok sebesar 1 persen, diprediksi Eric menurunkan pertumbuhan Indonesia sebesar 0,3 persen. Eric memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok pada 2016 sebesar 6,7 persen, sedangkan Indonesia di 5,2 persen.(ant/hrb)

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–DBS Bank, bank yang bermarkas di Singapura, mengemukakan bank sentral belum waktunya melakukan pemotongan BI Rate dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia edisi Januari 2016.

Dalam risetnya, Ekonom DBS Bank Gundy Cahyadi menyebutkan risiko global yang berasal dari China masih menjadi ‘momok’ untuk depresiasi nilai tukar. Dia mengatakan, langkah China yang bermanuver dengan renmibi pada pekan lalu belum berakhr.

Sebagian besar nilai tukar mata uang di Asia terdepresiasi karena gejolak yang ditimbulkan China,” kata Gundy.

Namun demikian, dia mengakui jika peluang untuk pemangkasan suku bunga acuan RI lebih terbuka pada bulan ini ketimbang bulan lalu. Apalagi, lanjutnya, inflasi berada di bawah perkiraan dan tergolong paling rendah dalam lima tahun terakhir.

Menurutnya, belum ada alasan krusial bagi otoritas moneter untuk memainkan kebijakan suku bunga. “Nilai tukar rupiah yang stabil lebih penting bagi laju produk domestik bruto.”

Di sisi lain, Gundy menambahkan saat pelaku pasar banyak memperbincangkan perang nilai tukar, penurunan BI Rate bisa menimbulkan sinyal yang berlawanan.

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AEC to present a tough playing field for Indonesian MICE players: INCCA

Mimi Hudoyo, 8th Indonesia MICE Outlook 2016, Tangerang, December 9, 2015

DIFFERENT government regulations across South-east Asia, specifically those governing bank loans, are expected to result in a bleak future for Indonesian convention and conference players as the ASEAN Economic Community is officially formed, predicted the president of the Indonesia Congress and Convention Association (INCCA).

 

Speaking at the 8th Indonesia MICE Outlook 2016 seminar on December 2 in BSD City, Tangerang, Iqbal Alan Abdullah said: “The way I see it, the business climate will be greyish dark as we enter the AEC era.”

 

Iqbal explained that the AEC will facilitate the entry of more foreign business event owners and organisers onto Indonesian soil, intensifying competition in the country. To compete effectively, Indonesian business event owners and organisers will need to grow their portfolio of events and to do so, they will require additional funding.

 

“The problem is, the bank interest rate in Indonesia is 13 per cent while in Singapore, for example, is only three per cent. Furthermore, Indonesian banks require a long list of supporting documents with loan applications. And after all that, companies can only loan up to 40 per cent of the event cost or 50 per cent (for rare cases),” said Iqbal, adding that some banks in other countries need only a letter of appointment for a large event and will grant up to 80 per cent of the event cost.

 

Ketut Salam, managing director of Pacto Convex, played down Iqbal’s concern, saying that financial institutions are naturally prudent and reputable event companies will have little trouble securing bank loans.

 

Iqbal’s cautious projections for 2016 also stems from the weakening Indonesian rupiah that has encouraged overseas MICE players to bring their shows to Indonesia, further intensifying competition for business in the country.

 

Effi Setiabudi, chairman of the Indonesia Exhibition Companies Association, too, expects a greater presence of international exhibition companies in Indonesia, drawn to the country’s “huge population and healthy economy”.

 

However, Effi has interpreted this development positively, describing it as “good times ahead” for Indonesia’s exhibition sector.

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TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – Suku bunga kredit perbankan nasional masih terlalu tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan suku bunga kredit negara tetangga kawasan ASEAN.

Dari data Kamar dagang dan industri (Kadin) Indonesia, suku bunga kredit rata-rata di kisaran 12 persen, sedangkan Thailand rata-rata 6,5 persen, Filipina 5,5 persen, Singapura 5 persen dan Malaysia 4,5 persen.

Wakil Presiden Republik Indonesia Jusuf Kalla sempat kesal dengan tingkat bunga kredit yang terlalu tinggi. Kekesalannya disampaikan saat sambutan pada pertemuan tahunan Bank Indonesia November lalu.

Wapres mengungkapkan saat ini industri perbankan nasional yang masih sedikit yang berpihak pada sektor usaha kecil dan menengah (UKM) dengan memberikan bunga rendah.

“Masa bunga kredit korporasi lebih rendah 10 persen dari bunga UKM, perbankan juga harus bisa perbaiki bunga UKM,” ujar JK.

Menurut dia, dengan tingginya bunga kredit sektor UKM maka akan sulit untuk mencari pendanaan. Padahal, UKM sangat membutuhkan pendanaan yang murah untuk pertumbuhan usaha.

“Pemerintah sekarang hanya bisa bantu perbaiki sektor UKM, dengan apapun biayanya, kita harus turunkan bunga UKM, seperti bunga kredit usaha rakyat (KUR) bunga dari 22 persen sekarang jadi 12 persen tahun depan pemerintah mau 9 persen,” tambahnya.

Dia juga menceritakan, selama dirinya menjadi pengusaha, dia tidak rela dengan bunga UKM yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan bunga korporasi.

Menurut Wapres, investasi di Indonesia tidak akan tumbuh tinggi jika antara bunga simpanan dan bunga kredit masih tinggi. “Salah satunya harus ada dikorbankan, Bank Indonesia (BI) dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) harus mampu mengontrol tingkat bunga (kredit & simpanan) agar seimbang dan tidak terlalu tinggi,” kata Wapres.

Wapres menyebutkan pembiayaan di Indonesia masih didominasi sektor perbankan dan pembiayaan saham masih sangat minim. Dia mengatakan, hal ini terjadi karena masih tingginya bunga simpanan di perbankan, sehingga menyebabkan masyarakat lebih memilih menyimpan uang di bank, hal yang ini mempengaruhi jumlah dana masuk ke pasar modal.

“Mana mungkin orang mau membeli saham, selama bunga deposito bisa mencapai 8 persen sampai 10 persen, orang pasti pilih yang pasti dibandingkan saham, tapi jika bunga deposito 4 persen atau 5 persen orang akan beralih ke saham,” ujar dia.

Berdasarkan survei perbankan Indonesia kuartal III 2015 rata-rata bunga kredit modal kerja dalam rupiah tercatat 13,6 persen atau dikisaran 10,98 persen hingga 16,25 persen. Sedangkan untuk kredit investasi tercatat 13,02 persen dan untuk kredit konsumsi 14,7 persen.

Untuk bunga KPR rata-rata 12,75 persen, kredit kendaraan bermotor (KKB) 13,75 persen, bunga kartu kredit 30,66 persen, kredit multiguna 13,94 persen dan kredit tanpa agunan 20,99 persen.

Dari bank berdalih, tingginya bunga kredit seiring dengan biaya dana yang dikeluarkan bank dan tingginya risiko dalam penyaluran kredit.

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JAKARTA okezone – Penurunan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) tentunya diyakini bisa mendorong perekonomian nasional. Namun hal itu dinilai akan sempurna jika dibarengi dengan penurunan suku bunga Bank Indonesia (BI).

Ketua Komisi XI DPR Fadel Muhammad mengatakan, jika pemerintah berharap penurunan harga BBM akan memberikan iklim positif bagi dunia usaha, maka hal itu belum cukup. Pasalnya, sektor industri juga membutuhkan sumber modal yang mudah untuk mengembangkan usahanya.

“Untuk itu mungkin bunga bank yang harus diturunkan. Tentunya berarti suku bunga harus turun. Jadi penurunan harga BBM ini melengkapi,” katanya saat dihubungi Okezone, Rabu (23/12/2015).

Fadel menegaskan, tentu pelaku usaha akan menyambut baik penurunan harga BBM, namun untuk saat ini banyak dari pelaku usaha yang terkendala dalam hal permodalan. Pasalnya bunga bank yang ada saat ini terbilang sangat tinggi.

“Lihat di bank itu tinggi sekali bunganya. Kalau BI rate mau diturunkan ya setidaknya bisa turun 2-3 persen lah,” pungkasnya.

Sekedar informasi, Menteri ESDM Sudirman Said telah mengumumkan penurunan harga BBM untuk Premium dan Solar di Istana Negara. Harga baru Premium menjadi Rp7.150 per liter dan Solar Rp5.950 per liter.(rai)

(rhs)

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JAKARTA kontan. Berbagai peristiwa politik yang terjadi di Indonesia, rupanya juga berdampak terhadap pasar modal. Dana asing tak hanya keluar terimbas faktor ekonomi global tapi juga kegaduhan politik di dalam negeri.

Indonesia dilanda berbagai kegaduhan politik pada tahun ini, mulai dari kisruh koalisi partai KIH dan KMP, pengangkatan Kapolri, reshuffle kabinet sampai yang terbaru adalah kasus ‘Papa Minta Saham’ yang melibatkan Mantan Ketua DPR, Setya Novanto.

Lucky Bayu Purnomo, Analis LBP Enterprise mengatakan, salah satu penyebab terjadinya capital outflow adalah ketidakstabilan politik. Ia melihat pasar sedikit ragu akibat gonjang-ganjing yang terjadi di pemerintahan.

“Soal reshuffle, kerjasama lintas lembaga yakni DPR RI terhadap berbagai kebijakan pemerintah itu membuat sentimen negatif terhadap dana asing,” ujarnya kepada KONTAN, Selasa (22/12).

Dia menyebut investor asing selalu concern terhadap kondisi ekonomi dan politik negara emerging market. Apalagi suku bunga acuan BI, atau BI Rate termasuk tertinggi di Asia. Hal ini tentu membuat sentimen negatif terhadap dana asing.

“Suku bunga tuh, BI rate kan 7,5% itu termasuk yang paling tinggi di Asia. Tentu sentimennya bakal negatif terhadap investor asing,” lanjutnya.

Upaya pemerintah untuk membenahi kondisi perekonomian memang memiliki dampak cukup baik. Namun sayangnya lagi-lagi semua Paket Kebijakan yang telah dikeluarkan pemerintah reaslisasinya belum dirasakan, sehingga tahun ini capital outflow masih tinggi.

“Saat ini Paket Kebijakan yang sampai VIII itu realisasinya belum dirasakan karena jangka menengah,” lanjutnya.

Seperti diketahui, sejak awal tahun sampai hari ini (22/12), investor asing telah melakukan penjualan bersih (net sell) senilai Rp 22,58 triliun di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Kondisi ini merupakan yang tertinggi sejak 10 tahun terakhir, terakhir kali tahun 2013 net sell mencapai Rp 20,64.

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JAKARTA-Pelaku pasar keuangan di dalam negeri mengharapkan Bank Indonesia memangkas suku bunga acuan (BI rate) agar dapat meningkatkan konsumsi masyarakat sehingga turut menopang perekonomian pada tahun 2016.

“Komposisi produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia kan dari konsumsi sekitar 55 persen, investasi aset 32 persen, belanja pemerintah 9 persen dan ekspor 3 persen. Kita melihat belanja pemerintah bisa mendorong konsumsi,” ujar Direktur dan Kepala Riset Ekuitas Citigroup Securities Ferry Wong dalam Seminar “Economic and Capital Market Outlook” di Jakarta, Senin.

Ia menambahkan Indonesia juga bakal mengalami perbaikan ekonomi seiring dengan harapan meningkatnya tingkat belanja negara pada tahun 2016. Hal itu, juga akan mengakselerasi konsumsi masyarakat meningkat.

Di sisi lain, lanjut dia, dengan tingkat inflasi yang rendah maka peluang Bank Indonesia untuk memangkas suku bunga acuan juga semakin terbuka, dengan demikian jarak inflasi dengan BI rate tidak terlampau lebar.

“Kami prediksi Bank Indonesia akan menurunkan suku bunga hingga 50 basis poin (bps). Pada kuartal II sebesar 25 bps, dan kuartal IV juga 25 bps,” katanya.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat laju inflasi pada November 2015 sebesar 0,21 persen. Dengan demikian, laju inflasi tahun kalender Januari-November 2015 tercatat mencapai 2,37 persen dan tingkat inflasi tahun ke tahun (year on year/yoy) 4,89 persen.

Sementara itu, Direktur Utama HD Capital Antony Kristanto mengatakan inflasi yang rendah seperti saat ini merupakan momentum yang tepat bagi Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan tingkat BI rate.

“Kalau memang nanti ada perlambatan ekonomi akibat kenaikan Fed fund rate maka kita masih tetap mempunyai ruang untuk menaikkan suku bunga, jangan sampai kita belum menurunkan suku bunga namun nanti dinaikkan lagi, itu kan dampaknya menjadi kurang bagus bagi Indonesia,” katanya.

Di tempat sama, Direktur Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia Yoga Affandi mengakui jarak antara inflasi dan BI rate saat ini cukup lebar. Namun, pihaknya harus tetap menjaga stabilitas ekonomi sebagai tugas utama Bank Indonesia. Saat ini, tingkat BI Rate sebesar 7,5 persen.

“Kalau kita lihat inflasi saat ini, suku bunga Bank Indonesia sudah cukup besar. Namun, amanat kami adalah menjaga stabilitas. Stabilitas lebih penting saat ini. Selama ’demand’ membaik permintaan kredit konsumsi akan tetap tumbuh,” katanya.

Ia mengatakan pihaknya belum dapat memastikan untuk menurunkan BI rate mengingat kondisi perekonomian global yang masih bervariasi.

“Bank Indonesia mengalami dilema terkait perlambatan ekonomi dan risiko eksternal. Namun, ketika suku bunga acuan bank sentral AS (Fed fund rate) sudah diputuskan maka lebih ada kepastian. Kalau memang saat ini pelonggaran moneter dibutuhkan, harus kita lihat dengan hati-hati,” ujarnya.(*/hrb)

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http://id.beritasatu.com/moneyandbanking/pelaku-pasar-berharap-bi-pangkas-suku-bunga/134744
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

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JAKARTA kontan. Citigroup Securities Indonesia berpendapat, dampak kenaikkan suku bunga acuan Federal Reserve (The Fed) sudah diantsipasi oleh pelaku pasar.

Oleh karena itu, Bank Indonesia (BI) dinilainya mempunyai kesempatan untuk melakukan pelonggaran kebjiakan tahun depan.

Ferry Wong, Direktur dan Kepala Riset Citigroup mengatakan, bank sentral AS diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 0,5% pada rapat dewan gubernur (FOMCG) pekan depan.

Kenaikan ini akan dilanjutkan pada 2016 mendatang menjadi 1% hingga tutup tahun.

Namun, bukan berarti ini membuat BI tidak bisa leluasa menurunkan BI Rate.

“BI bisa menrunkan suku bunga di kuartal dua dan kuartal empat tahun depan, masing-masing sebesar 25 basis poin,” ujarnya, Senin (7/12).

Sehingga, akihr tahun depan, BI bisa melakukan pelonggaran dengan memangkas BI Rate ke level 7%.

Mulai tingginya belanja pemerintah, khususnya di sektor infrastruktur akan membuat perekonomian Indonesia lebih bergairah.

Selain itu, porsi investasi aset tetap (fix asset investment) terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) bisa meningkat dari 32% saat ini ke level 40%.

Hal ini seiring dengan paket kebijakan pemerintah yang mulai terarah dan menyasar pada kegiatan bisnis di Indonesia.

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JAKARTA sindonews– Pelaku pasar saham sedang menanti efektivitas paket kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah dalam mengatasi sentimen negatif yang datang dari eksternal.

“Pasar masih terus menunggu efektivitas paket kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah. Untuk menjaga pasar, kami terus berupaya memberikan kepercayaan dan ketenangan bagi investor untuk tetap berinvestasi dan bertransaksi di pasar modal Indonesia salah satunya melalui sosialisasi dan edukasi,” ujar Direktur Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Sulistyo Budi dalam Seminar “Economic and Capital Market Outlook” di Jakarta, Senin (7/12).

Ia menambahkan bahwa pelaku pasar juga berharap paket kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah mampu mengatasi hal negatif terutama yang datang dari eksternal, seperti melambatnya perekonomian Tiongkok, spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga acuan bank sentral AS, serta penurunan harga komoditas dunia.

Untuk menjaga industri pasar modal domestik tetap kondusif, lanjut dia, BEI terus fokus melakukan sosialisasi dan edukasi melalui kantor perwakilan Bursa di 47 Universitas yang tersebar di Indonesia.

“Kampanye ’Yuk Nabung Saham’ sebagai salah satu sosialisasi dan edukasi ke masyarakat,” katanya seperti dikutip Antara.

Dalam kesempatan sama, Direktur Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia, Yoga Affandi mengatakan bahwa pihaknya memiliki bauran kebijakan untuk menjaga stabilitas industri keuangan di Indonesia.

“Kita tahu, sejak November tahun 2015 ini pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah mulai bergerak stabil terhadap dolar AS, inflasi juga terjaga di bawah 4 persen, neraca transaksi berjalan juga cukup bagus meski impor melemah. Pada 2016 akan lebih baik,” katanya.

Direktur dan Kepala Riset Ekuitas Citigroup Securities, Ferry Wong optimistis kinerja pasar modal pada 2016 mendatang akan positif. Kinerja pasar modal yang dapat dilihat dari laju pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di BEI pada 2016 mendatang diproyeksikan di kisaran level 5.700 poin.

“Diproyeksi IHSG BEI pada 2016 berada di level 5.700 poin, sementara pada tahun 2015 ini di kisaran 4.700 poin,” katanya. (ID/ths)

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JAKARTA sindonews- Sejak krisis 1997/1998, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sulit menembus angka 7%. Padahal, pada masa Orde Baru di bawah kepemimpinan Presiden RI ke-2 Soeharto, ekonomi nasional tumbuh signifikan.

“Pertama tentu saja jawabannya diplomatis. Karena ekonomi global mempersulit,” ujar Wakil Presiden Republik Indonesia (RI) Muhammad Jusuf Kalla saat berpidato dalam sebuah acara di Jakarta, akhir pekan.

JK menuturkan pada 1998, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia minus 13% dan kembali tumbuh tinggi pada 2000 sebesar 4,9%. Kemudian, pertumbuhan ekonomi kembali turun setahun setelahnya di angka 3,64%.

Hal serupa, lanjut JK, terjadi pada 2007 saat ekonomi berhasil tumbuh 6,35% kembali jatuh pada 2009 karena terkena dampak krisis subprime mortgage di Amerika Serikat. Begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2011 yang tumbuh 6,49% sebelum akhirnya terus melambat hingga tahun ini. “Jadi memang kondisi kita seperti itu, kita hampir mencapai (7%) tapi turun lagi,” ucapnya.

JK mengatakan, Indonesia merupakan negara besar yang beberapa kali mendapat berkah, seperti menjulangnya harga minyak pada era Orde Baru dan naiknya harga komoditas. Tapi, Indonesia mengulangi kesalahan yang sama.

Kesalahan tersebut, kata JK, adalah sistem lalu lintas devisa yang terlampau bebas sehingga membuat Indonesia tidak merasakan dampak dari berkah “kenaikan harga” tersebut. Dia menyebut, tingginya ekspor Indonesia pada saat itu tidak sebanding dengan dolar AS yang didapat.

“Yang kita ekspor itu devisanya tidak masuk (ke Indonesia), tapi masuk ke Singapura dan Hong Kong dan dipajakin di sana. Kita malah mengandalkan pasar buat portofolio dengan bayar bunga yang mahal untuk menarik dana masuk,” kata Kalla.

Mantan Menteri Perdagangan dan Perindustrian ini memaparkan, minimnya suplai dolar tersebut membuat mata uang rupiah menjadi volatile atau rentan bergejolak. Kondisi tersebut membuat para pengusaha menanggung risiko kurs sehingga membuat ekonomi tinggi. “Sekarang kita minta uang mereka masuk lewat tax amnesty,” sambungnya.

Kesalahan lainnya, kata Wapres, adalah pembangunan industri yang diabaikan. Dia menyebut, sejak reformasi, industri sebenarnya tumbuh, tapi pertumbuhannya kalah dengan sektor-sektor lain, seperti sektor jasa, pertambangan, dan komoditas. “Jadi secara nominal tumbuh, tapi secara persentase berkurang (kontribusinya terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto),” katanya.

Sebab itu, lanjut JK, pemerintah saat ini fokus menggiatkan reindustrialisasi dengan membangun basisnya, yaitu infrastruktur dan mempermudah berbagai perizinan. Selain itu, dia juga meminta kepada otoritas moneter yakni Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk mendukung kebijakan pemerintah dengan menurunkan suku bunga untuk menarik investasi lebih banyak.

“Ini kebijakan-kebijakan yang harus kita pelajari kembali supaya (kesalahan) jangan terulang lagi,” pungkas alumnus Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Hasanuddin Makassar itu.

(dmd)

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JAKARTA kontan. Allianz baru saja mengeluarkan Global Wealth Report edisi keenam. Hal menarik dari laporan ini terkait dengan klasfikasi aset terhadap aset keuangan bruto. Dikatakan bahwa deposito masih menjadi kelas aset yang paling populer di kawasan Asia, yakni mencapai 50,9% dari aset keuangan bruto.

Dalam analisanya, hal ini disebabkan oleh sistem keuangan di sebagian besar negara-negara Asia masih belum matang, sehingga akses kepada institusi layanan keuangan selain bank masih rendah. Seperti misalnya di Indonesia dan India, yang dilaporkan memiliki porsi penempatan aset keuangan pada sekuritas yang masih sangat rendah.

Di Indonesia, penempatan untuk deposito sebesar 63,8% dari aset keuangan bruto, sedangkan sekuritas hanya sebesar 13%. Sedangkan penempatan aset di produk asuransi dan dana pensiun masih lebih besar dengan 20,3% dari aset keuangan bruto.

Alan Darmawan, Direktur Allianz Life Indonesia bidang investasi menilai, meskipun di Indonesia penempatan aset keuangan pada sektor investasi sekuritas masih belum tinggi, namun pihaknya melihat minat masyarakat Indonesia untuk melakukan investasi terus meningkat.

“Bagi para investor yang memiliki profil risiko moderat, reksadana pada fixed income masih menarik, sedangkan untuk investor dengan profil risiko agresif dengan jangka investasi yang panjang saatnya untuk top up reksadana saham mereka,“ ujar Alan.

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Tujuh Industri Kecil Menengah (IKM) yang bergerak di bidang komponen otomotif gulung tikar pada 2015. “Jumlah itu dari sekitar 100 anggota karena IKM komponen otomotif termasuk rentan,” kata Ketua umum Perkumpulan Industri Kecil Menengah Komponen Otomotif Indonesia PIKKO Rosalina Faried di Bogor, Jumat, 4 Desember 2015.

 

Rosa mengatakan, ketujuh IKM yang berada di Jabodetabek itu memproduksi komponen pengepresan untuk mobil dan motor. Menurut Rosa, fluktuasi rupiah pada 2015 mempengaruhi produksi ketujuh IKM, mengingat material pengepresan yang mereka gunakan masih impor. “Sehingga dengan nilai tukar dollar yang tinggi, siapa yang mau impor? Selain itu, populasi stamping (pengepresan) di Indonesia itu banyak sekali. Di pasar harganya tidak sehat,” kata Rosalina.

 

Akibat penutupan usaha itu, sekitar 500 karyawan diberhentikan dan pabrik berhenti berproduksi total. Daya beli masyarakat yang turun juga berkontribusi terhadap penutupan pabrik karena penjualan mobil sepanjang 2015 juga turun sekitar 30 persen.

 

Kendati IKM dipandang sebagai sektor yang tahan banting terhadap fluktuasi kondisi ekonomi, namun tidak berlaku bagi IKM komponen otomotif. “Hal ini karena IKM komponen seringkali tidak bisa melakukan diversifikasi produk seperti yang dilakukan IKM di sektor lain,” ujar Rosa.

 

ANTARA

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengingatkan potensi pelebaran defisit anggaran hingga mendekati 3% terhadap PDB pada akhir tahun, karena hal tersebut menyalahi ketentuan berlaku.

“Tentu saja, 2,7% itu sudah berada pada level yang harus dijaga, karena batasnya 3%,” katanya di Jakarta, Rabu (3/12/2015).

Darmin mengakui salah satu penyebab pelebaran defisit anggaran tersebut disebabkan oleh kurang optimalnya penerimaan pajak, yang hingga akhir tahun diproyeksikan hanya mencapai kisaran 85%.

Menurut dia, dua hal yang bisa menjadi alasan realisasi penerimaan pajak tidak sesuai harapan pada 2015 adalah perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan target dalam APBN-P yang terlalu tinggi.

Ini urusan ekonomi yang melambat, sehingga menghasilkan penerimaan pajak yang melambat. Tapi pada saat yang sama target yang ditetapkan juga terlalu tinggi. Kombinasi dari dua itu,” katanya.

Darmin pun memberikan apresiasi kepada Sigit Priadi Pramudito yang mundur dari jabatan Direktur Jenderal Pajak sebagai bentuk pertanggungjawaban karena penerimaan pajak hingga akhir tahun dipastikan tidak tercapai.

“Dia mundur karena merasa bertanggung jawab bahwa apa yang direncanakan tidak tercapai. Menurut saya, kita harus menghormati keputusan Dirjen,” kata Darmin yang juga mantan Direktur Jenderal Pajak.

Pemerintah sudah menyiapkan antisipasi apabila defisit anggaran makin melebar dari target yang ditetapkan dalam APBN-P sebesar 1,9% terhadap PDB, salah satunya dengan menambah pembiayaan melalui penerbitan surat utang dan menambah pinjaman dari lembaga multilateral.

Potensi pelebaran defisit anggaran tersebut telah terlihat sejak pertengahan 2015, ketika itu realisasi penerimaan pajak masih di bawah kisaran 30%, sehingga defisit anggaran akhir tahun diproyeksikan mencapai 2,23% terhadap PDB.

Berbagai upaya yang dilakukan Direktorat Jenderal Pajak untuk mengupayakan peningkatan penerimaan tidak membuahkan hasil karena adanya perlambatan ekonomi, penurunan harga komoditas global, reformasi sistem perpajakan yang belum optimal dan kebijakan ekstensifikasi yang kurang maksimal.

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Jakarta detik -Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat laju inflasi di November 2015 mencapai 0,21%. Menurut Direktur Bidang Statistik Distribusi dan Jasa BPS, Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, inflasi di November ini adalah yang terendah dalam 5 tahun terakhir.

“Kalau dilihat dari gambaran ini untuk kondisi November terendah dalam 5 tahun terakhir, year on yearterendah sepanjang 2015, inflasi inti juga terendah sepanjang 2015,” ujar Sasmito dalam jumpa pers di kantor BPS, Selasa (1/12/2015).

Sasmito menambahkan, untuk komponen inti mengalami inflasi sebesar 0,16% dan inflasi inti sebesar 4,77%.

“Inflasi inti sepanjang 2015 lumayan bandel, akhirnya bisa mengecil saat ini, dan membuka peluang moneter,” jelas Sasmito.

(drk/hns)

 

ya sudah lah: eurozone LOM pulih … 100111_280616

MANFAATken MOMENTUM PENUNDAAN KENAEKAN THE FED FUND RATE  2016 dengan KEBIJAKSANAAN BI RATE DI BAWAH 6,5%

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reuters: Britain suffered further blows to its economic standing on Monday as two top ratings agencies downgraded its sovereign credit score, judging last week’s vote to leave the European Union would hurt its economy.

Standard & Poor’s stripped Britain of its last remaining top-notch credit rating, dropping it by two grades from “AAA” to “AA” and warning more downgrades could follow.

Fitch Ratings also downgraded its ranking for Britain’s creditworthiness by one notch, and similarly said more cuts could follow.

The ratings agencies effectively added a rubber stamp to the market’s view of the Brexit vote, as sterling tanked to a 31-year low against the U.S. dollar on Monday and stock markets fell for a second trading day since the referendum last Thursday.

It was the first time S&P had chopped an AAA-rated sovereign credit rating by two notches in one move.

“In our opinion, this (referendum) outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the UK,” S&P said in a statement.

Finance minister George Osborne said on Monday the British economy was strong enough to cope with the volatility caused by Thursday’s referendum.

But the vote has plunged the country into a political crisis, with the ruling Conservative Party looking for a new leader after Prime Minister David Cameron said he would stay on until October, delaying the launch of negotiations with the EU and leaving the country’s economic prospects under a cloud of uncertainty.

The added prospect of a new independence referendum in Scotland, which voted strongly to stay in the EU, threatens the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom, S&P warned.

Fitch more than halved its growth forecast for Britain’s economy in 2017 and 2018 to just 0.9 percent for both years, from 2.0 percent previously.

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell to session lows after S&P’s decision. British 10-year government borrowing costs had already fallen below 1.0 percent for the first time during European trading hours. [GBP/]

S&P warned financial firms, especially foreign ones, might look to other destinations for investment after Britain leaves the EU.

The remaining major ratings agency, Moody’s, which took away Britain’s AAA-rating in 2013 because of the country’s high levels of debt and slow growth, said on Friday it could cut the rating further.

Moody’s will downgrade the credit rating outlook for major British banks to “negative” on Tuesday because of the fallout from the vote to leave the EU, Sky News reported, citing sources.

Protecting Britain’s credit rating was a top priority of Conservative finance minister George Osborne when he came to power in 2010.

(Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by William Schomberg and Andrew Roche)

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kontan: DALAM kurun waktu ini, Inggris diprediksi bakal mengalami efek domino di bidang ekonomi skala besar akibat pilihan keluar dari Uni Eropa, yang selama ini memungkinkan pergerakan bebas barang dan manusia.

Dampak buruk ekonomi itu tidak hanya dalam kaitan antara Inggris dan 27 negara anggota Uni Eropa, tetapi juga antara Inggris dengan negara-negara di luar Eropa.

Hal itu disampaikan oleh dosen senior SOAS, Universitas London, Dr Ben Murtagh, yang fasih berbahasa Indonesia dari Departemen Asia Tenggara.

“Karena pasti ada banyak pusat perusahaan, pusat bank, dan lain sebagainya yang berada di Inggris karena Inggris berada di dalam Uni Eropa. Kalau Inggristidak lagi di dalam Uni Eropa, mungkin kantor pusat perusahaan, bank dan lain sebagainya akan pindah ke negara-negara lain dan pasti itu masalah besar,” jelas Murtagh dalam wawancara dengan wartawan BBC Indonesia, Rohmatin Bonasir, Senin (27/6).

Menteri urusan bisnis Inggris, Sajid Javid, telah mengeluarkan seruan agar dunia usaha tidak panik menyusul hasil referendum yang menunjukkan mayoritas rakyat Inggris memilih keluar dari Uni Eropa atau sering disebut ‘Brexit’.

“Fundamental ekonomi kita tetap kuat. Fundamental-fundamental itu cukup kuat untuk menghadapi volatilitas pasar jangka pendek,” tegasnya.

Proyek Eropa

Namun menurut Dr Murtagh -sebagaimana diungkapkan oleh sejumlah kalangan lain- persoalan ekonomi yang menghadang Inggris jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kehadiran imigran di negara ini. Dan masalah ekonomi ini punya efek domino.

“Saya kerja di universitas dan banyak sekali rekan saya di sini warga negara Eropa dan mereka tak tahu apa masa depan mereka. Takut sekali,” tambah Murtagh.

Ketakutan itu, lanjutnya, tidak hanya dirasakan oleh kalangan akademisi dari negara-negara Uni Eropa tetapi juga mereka dari luar Eropa, antara lain karena adanya ketidakpastian masa depan proyek-proyek akademis yang sedang berlangsung.

Hal senada juga disampaikan oleh peneliti pada Lembaga Perubahan Sosial, Universitas Manchester, Dr Gindo Tampubulon.

“Jangka pendeknya memang jelek. Kita sudah melihat bahwa ada kontrak-kontrak dari Eropa yang kemudian diputuskan, lantas karyawannya direlokasi. Dan buat saya sendiri yang punya beberapa proyek bersama Eropa, kita ketar-ketir apakah proyek ini pada tahun kedua atau tahun ketiga akan tetap dijalankan seperti rencana.”

Stabilitas baru, menurutnya, bisa terwujud dalam tempo dua tahun mendatang jika para pemimpin baik kubu Keluar maupun Tetap di Uni Eropa memberikan jalan keluar jelas tentang apa yang bisa dipertahankan dan apa yang bisa diubah.

Arah menuju kemungkinan keterpurukan ekonomi itu dapat dilihat dari pergerakan pasar keuangan begitu hasil referendum diumumkan pada Jumat (24/06). Saham-saham berjatuhan dan mata uang Inggris pound sterling turut anjlok.

Dalam perdagangan Senin (27/06), mata uang pound sterling menyentuh titik terendah selama 31 terakhir terhadap dolar.

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Kabar24.com, JAKARTA – Tak ada pilihan lain, Uni Eropa harus direkonstruksi total pascareferendum Inggris yang memenangkan kubu pendukung Brexit alias Britain Exit, keluar meninggalkan perhimpunan negara eropa.

Kurang lebih itulah pesan yang disampaikan milioner investor George Soros, Sabtu waktu setempat pascareferendum di Inggris, Jumat (24/6/2016).

Rekonstruksi menyeluruh, ujar Soros, merupakan satu-satunya cara untuk menyelamatkan Uni Eropa, walau demikian ia juga telah mengingatkan bahwa keputusan Inggris meninggalkan blok negara-negara di Benua Biru itu telah menciptakan disintegrasi di Uni Eropa dan hal itu tak dapat dibatalkan lagi.

Soros, yang sebelum refrendum mengingatkan kemungkinan goncangan keuangan jika Inggris meninggalkan UE, juga menyatakan bahwa efek keputusan itu juga akan berbalik merusak Inggris sendiri.

“Inggris tentu saja tidak akan lebih baik dari negara lain atas keputusannya meninggalkan UE, perekonomian dan masyarakat akan mengalami dampak signifikan dalam jangka pendek dan jangka menengahm” tulis Soros dalam komentarnya di website Project Syndicate.

Soros tercatat meraih untung besar pada tahun 1992 saat pound sterling mengalami crash hingga ke level terendah dan harus dikeluarkan dari mekanisme nilai tukar Eropa.

Ia, awal pekan ini, juga mengingatkan hal serupa akan terjadi. Berbicara sebelum referendum berlangsung, Soros memperkirakan kemenangan Brexit akan menekan mata uang Inggris hingga minimal 15%, bahkan mungkin lebih dari 20%, menjadi di bawah US$1,15. Prediksi itu termuat pada surat kabar Inggris, The Guardian,

Saat Brexit menang, pada Jumat (24/6) pound terkoreksi sekitar 10%, menjadi angka terendah dalam 31 tahun, meski tidak sampai berada di bawah $1.32. Tidak diketahui apakah kali ini Soros juga bermain dan mengeruk untung. Jubir Soros menolak memberi penjelasan apakah sang investor miliuner ini mempertaruhkan dananya untuk Brexit.

“Kini skenario kerusakan yang ditakutkan banyak pihak menjadi kenyataan, menciptakan disintegrasi pada Uni Eropa yang secara praktis tak bisa diperbaiki lagi,” tulis Soros.

“Pasar finansial dunia sepertinya akan bergejolak lama, seiring rumitnya proses politik dan ekonomi atas perpisahan Inggris dari Uni Eropa dibicarakan,”

Ia mengilustrasikan bahwa konsekuensi Brexit ini bisa dibandingkan dengan krisis keuangan pada 2007-2008.

Soros menyebutkan Uni Eropa telah gagal memuaskan kebutuhan dan aspirasi warganya. Meski begitu, ia menyebut perlunya dukungan untuk merekonstruksi UE.

“Setelah Brexit, kita semua yang percaya bahwa UE dibangun oleh nilai dan prinsip-prinsip harus bersama-sama menyelamatkannya, merekonstruksinya secara menyeluruh,” tulis Soros.

“Saya yakin sebagai konsekuensi dari Brexit pada pekan dan bulan-bulan mendatang akan semakin banyak orang yang bergabung dengan kita,” ujar Soros.

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Kabar24.com, TIANJIN, China –  Keputusan warga Inggris Raya untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa sejalan hasil referendum Jumat (24/6) bisa dinilai lebih dari sekadar Inggris meninggalkan persekutuan negara di Benua Biru itu.

Ekonom Nouriel Roubini menyebutkan, keputusan warga Inggris Raya meninggalkan Uni Eropa bisa diterjemahkan sebagai awal dari perpecahan di kalangan negara-negara yang tersimpul dalam blok negara kerajaan tersebut.

Meski begitu, masyarakat tidak perlu khawatir akan terjadinya resesi atau krisis keuangan atas kemenangan kubu Brexit itu, ujar Roubini, saat berbicara pada forum ekonomi dunia, World Economic Forum, di Tianjin, kawasan utara China, Minggu (26/6/2016).

Nouriel Roubini adalah ekonom Amerika Serikat. Ia mengajar di Stern School of Business, Universitas New York, dan menjabat ketua Roubini Global Economics. Roubini berasal dari keluarga Yahudi Persia, lahir di Turki, dan dibesarkan di Italia.

Dunia terkejut dengan referendum Inggris yang menghasilkan kemenangan Brexit alias British atau Britain exit, keluar dari keuanggotaan di Uni Eropa.

Selain menimbulkan goncangan di pasar modal Jumat (24/6/2016) serta melesatnya komoditas safe haven macam emas, Brexit juga berpotensi menjadi bola salju yang menggelinding membawa isu serupa di sejumlah negara anggota Uni Eropa.

Setidaknya, isu Brexit sempat menular ke Belanda dan Prancis. Sementara, di Inggris muncul dorongan agar dilakukan referendum kedua terkait kemenangan kubu Brexit tersebut.

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BRUSSELS, KOMPAS.com – Para petinggi Uni Eropa mengingatkan, Inggris harus bergerak cepat untuk bernegosiasi meninggalkan blok tersebut. Keterlambatan memperpanjang ketidakpastian.

Ketua Komisi Eropa, Jean-Claude Juncker, menekankan “UE dengan 27 negara akan maju terus”.

Hasil referendum Eropa di Inggris telah final bahwa 51,9 persen pemilih menghendaki negara mereka keluar UE dan 48,1 persen mengharapkan Inggris tetap berada di dalam blok 28 negara itu.

Kemenangan kubu yang memilih “leave” itu diikuti pernyataan David Cameron bahwa ia akan mundur dari jabatan perdana menteri pada Oktober mendatang.

Cameron berharap penggantinya akan memimpin Inggris ke arah yang diinginkan oleh kubu Brexit – Inggris keluar dari UE. Cameron mengkampanyekan agar Inggris tetap, “remain”, di blok UE.

Juncker langsung menggelar pertemuan dengan Ketua Parlemen Eropa, Martin Schulz,  Ketua Dewan Eropa Donald Tusk,  dan Perdana Menteri Belanda, Mark Rutte, Jumat.

Setelah pertemuan para pejabat itu mengeluarkan pernyataan bahwa mereka ‘menyesalkan’  apa yang terjadi di Inggris, tetapi juga ‘sangat menghormati hasil pilihan rakyat Inggris’.

Mereka menyerukan Inggris “untuk memberitahu akibat dari keputusan ini kepada rakyat Inggris sesegera mungkin. Setiap keterlambatan yang tidak perlu akan memperpanjang ketidakpastian”.

“Kami siap untuk memulai negosiasi dengan cepat dengan Inggris mengenai syarat dan ketentuan pengunduran diri dari UE,” kata pernyataan bersama mereka.

Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel menyatakan “penyesalan yang besar” atas keputusan Inggris. Ia mengatakan,” Ini merupakan tamparan bagi Eropa dan proses penyatuan Eropa”.

Presiden Prancis Francois Hollande mengatakan hasil referendum  secara serius menguji Eropa.

“Saya menghormati pilihan yang menyakitkan ini, namun Perancis akan terus bekerja sama dengan negara yang ramah ini,” kata Hollande.

Parlemen Eropa telah menyerukan sesi khusus menggelar rapat darurat pada Selasa (28/6/2016) untuk menyikapi Brexit.

Merkel mengatakan dia akan bertemu Tusk, Hollande,  dan Perdana Menteri Italia, Matteo Renzi di Berlin, Senin (27/6/2016).

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London, June 24, 2016 (AFP)
The Bank of England “stands ready to provide” more than £250 billion of funds to aid the smooth functioning of markets after the Brexit vote, governor Mark Carney said Friday.

“As a backstop, and to support the functioning of markets, the Bank of England stands ready to provide more than £250 billion ($370 billion, 326 billion euros) of additional funds through its normal facilities,” Carney said in a televised statement.

“The Bank of England is also able to provide substantial liquidity in foreign currency, if required,” he added.

The British central bank had earlier said that it would take “all necessary steps” to ensure monetary and financial stability after Britain’s referendum decision to leave the European Union.

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London, June 21, 2016 (AFP)
England football great David Beckham on Tuesday backed Britain to remain in the European Union, hailing the positive influence of European players on British football.

“For our children and their children, we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone,” said the former Manchester United star.

“We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For these reasons I am voting to Remain,” he said in a statement on Facebook, two days before the crucial vote.

Beckham, 41, highlighted the European influence on his star-studded career, during which he won 19 major trophies and spent four years at Real Madrid.

“I grew up with a core group of young British players that included Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, Nicky Butt and the Neville Brothers,” he said in a statement.

“That team might have gone on to win trophies but we were a better and more successful team because of a Danish goalkeeper, Peter Schmeichel, the leadership of an Irishman Roy Keane and the skill of a Frenchman in Eric Cantona.”

Beckham also played in Milan and Paris during his 20-year career.

“Those great European cities and their passionate fans welcomed me and my family and gave us the opportunity to enjoy their unique and inspiring cultures and people,” said the former midfielder.

In a divisive and ill-tempered campaign, Beckham stressed that “each side has the right to their opinion and that should always be respected.

“Whatever the result of Thursday’s referendum, we will always be Great,” he added.

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<org idsrc=”isin” value=”US30303M1027″>Facebook</org>

<org idsrc=”isin” value=”KYG5784H1065″>MANCHESTER UNITED</org>

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London, June 20, 2016 (AFP)
Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron led tearful tributes Monday to slain lawmaker Jo Cox, whose brutal murder has opened up fresh splits in the campaign for Britain to leave the EU in a referendum this week.

The killing last week sparked accusations of hate-mongering in an already heated battle for votes before a momentous ballot on Thursday that could determine the political and economic fate of Europe.

Financial markets rallied as prospects for the “Remain” side appeared to brighten in the latest surveys, putting it neck-and-neck with the “Leave” side. London’s FTSE stock market index surged more than three percent and sterling made strong gains.

Meanwhile divisions have surfaced among pro-Brexit campaigners after UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage released a poster last Thursday showing immigrants trudging through Europe with a headline in red screaming “Breaking Point”.

On that same day, Cox, a 41-year-old mother of two and pro-EU, was on her way to meet members of the public in northern England when an attacker shot and stabbed her, leaving her bleeding on the pavement. She died of her wounds.

– Wiped away tears –

To cries of “hear, hear” in parliament, Cameron called on fellow politicians to remember the Labour Party lawmaker by “uniting against the hatred that killed her, today, and for ever more”.

Cox’s husband Brendan and her children, aged three and five, listened in parliament’s gallery as politicians, sporting white roses in memory of her home county of Yorkshire, paid tribute.

Some lawmakers clutched handkerchiefs and wiped away tears. A white rose and a red rose symbolising her party were left on the bench where she used to sit.

Donations topped £1 million ($1.46 million, 1.3 million euros) to a memorial fund to support causes she backed, such as The White Helmets search and rescue volunteers in Syria.

Minutes before the parliamentary session opened, Cox’s alleged killer, 52-year-old Thomas Mair, appeared in court in London via video link from prison after being charged at the weekend with her murder.

During a short hearing, he spoke only to confirm his name and was ordered to remain in custody. Asked to give his identity at a lower court on Saturday, he had replied: “Death to traitors, freedom for Britain.”

– Outrage over poster –

A close friend of Cox in parliament, Stephen Kinnock, said the lawmaker would have been “outraged” by Farage’s Brexit campaign poster.

“Jo understood that rhetoric has consequences. When insecurity, fear and anger are used to light a fuse, then the explosion is inevitable,” he warned.

The author of the Harry Potter series J.K Rowling called the campaign “one of the most divisive and bitter political campaigns ever waged” in Britain on her website.

Despite the criticism, Farage said the poster was an accurate depiction of the refugee crisis in the EU and accused his rivals of unashamedly using Cox’s death to boost their cause.

Farage has admitted the killing took the momentum out of the Brexit campaign.

“The ‘Remain’ camp are using these awful circumstances to try to say that the motives of one deranged, dangerous individual were similar of half the country or perhaps more who believe we should leave the EU,” he told the BBC.

– ‘Hate and xenophobia’ –

But a senior member of Cameron’s ruling Conservatives, former party chair Sayeeda Warsi, said she was withdrawing support for “Leave” because of the poster.

“Are we prepared to tell lies, to spread hate and xenophobia just to win a campaign?” she asked.

Farage dismissed her defection, describing it as a “Number 10 put-up job” — a reference to Cameron’s Downing Street office — and cast doubt on whether she had ever really been part of the Brexit camp.

The British referendum has opened the prospect of other nations demanding a vote, too, perhaps placing in peril the very survival of the European project, which was born out of a determination to forge lasting peace after two world wars.

“Whatever the UK vote is, we must take a long hard look on the future of the Union. Would be foolish to ignore such a warning signal,” EU president Donald Tusk wrote on Twitter.

– ‘Stay with us’ –

In a television appearance in which he was grilled by audience members, opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is campaigning for “Remain”, said voters “may well” vote to leave.

“If we remain, I believe Europe has got to change quite dramatically to something much more democratic, much more accountable,” Corbyn said.

While the “Remain” camp has tried to focus on the potential economic damage that Brexit could inflict, the “Leave” campaign held out the promise of Britain taking better control of immigration if it leaves the EU.

The “Leave” and “Remain” sides have now battled each other to a stalemate, with each on exactly 50 percent support, according to an average of the last six polls calculated by research site What UK Thinks.

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LONDON (MarketWatch) — The people campaigning for Great Britain to leave the European Union want you to think they’re appealing to the greatest instincts and aspirations: the appeal of history, the call of patriotism, the desire for the British people to look beyond Europe to the wider seas.

But if they win the referendum on June 23, that won’t be the reason.

The “Brexit” campaign here has degenerated into racism and xenophobia. And that’s the reason it has suddenly pulled ahead in the polls.

It is immigration, nothing else, that has turned this referendum campaign heavily toward the Brexit side.

Brexit has just aired a television commercial that brings back memories of the infamous Willie Horton commercial on U.S. TV during the 1988 presidential election. (Michael Dukakis, the Democratic candidate and governor of Massachusetts, was attacked by his rival, George H.W. Bush, over a black prisoner who raped a white woman while on a weekend furlough.)

In the Brexit commercial, a Nice White Woman becomes worried that her Nice White Elderly Mother is sick and takes her to the local hospital. And what then unfolds, on a split screen, are two alternative stories about what happens next — one with Britain outside the EU, and one inside.

In the future where Britain is outside the EU, the Nice White Woman and her Nice White Elderly Mother wait a short time with a few other white people before being seen promptly by a nice doctor who makes it all better.

Brexit backer: Don’t be swayed by Goldman Sachs

(3:32)

On the other side of the screen, however, is the future of Britain inside the EU. The woman and her mother wait for hours to be seen … in a waiting room packed to the gills. Noticeably, a high proportion of those waiting seem to be people of color. (And others like the dirty, unshaven East European hoodlums from the movie “Taken.”)

The directors of the commercial are no fools. They’ve cleverly given themselves an “out” against any charges of racism. In both storylines, the nice young nurse who meets the patients is Afro-Caribbean. But the subliminal image, of a waiting room — and by implication, a Britain — teeming with dodgy foreigners is hard to miss.

Read: ‘Brexit’ panic may be your big chance to buy the S&P 500

The commercial comes as the Brexit campaign is playing an aggressively similar card. Media here are suddenly being dominated by scare stories of a “secret plot” to “flood” the country with “1.5 million Turks” immediately if Britain should vote to stay in the EU.

It is immigration, nothing else, that has turned this referendum campaign heavily toward the Brexit side. The latest polls show Brexit pulling ahead, by anywhere from 1 to 7 percentage points. The growing word on the ground here — from people on both sides of the debate — is that unless something changes, the Brexit camp is likely to win.

Also see: Strategists in Europe see dire consequences in Fed’s reluctance to raise rates

That is likely to provoke a political crisis here and across the rest of the Union. It is hard to see how Prime Minister David Cameron or his number two, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, could survive. They are the ones who have mismanaged the “Remain” campaign so badly. But their political rivals within the ruling Conservative party, Brexit champions Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, are also tainted. The referendum has bitterly divided the party.

Everything will be up in the air, and if the markets hate one thing, it’s uncertainty. Meanwhile, the smart money is on Home Secretary Theresa May to emerge as the unity candidate. The bookmakers give her odds of 7/1 to be the next leader.

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Washington, June 3, 2016 (AFP)
Moody’s became the third rating agency to remove Finland’s top-flight AAA credit rating Friday, saying it sees no improvement in the country’s debt challenge over the coming five years.

Moody’s cut the Nordic country’s rating by one notch to Aa1 following similar moves by rival rating agencies Fitch and S&amp;P in 2014 and 2015.

The Finnish economy faces weak growth over the coming years that will reduce its resilience to potential shocks, Moody’s said.

Without economic improvement, the agency added, it foresees a deteriorating fiscal position “with no material reversal in the upward trend in the public sector debt burden likely in the next five years.”

Although Finland’s economy resumed growing slowly last year after three years of recession, Moody’s said it expects the country to expand only 1 percent per year over 2016-2017.

The country’s debt burden will continue rising from 60 percent of GDP last year to 67 percent by 2018, it said.

“The rise in Finland’s debt load has been material and the measures planned to reverse it are not without challenges, particularly in a low-growth environment,” Moody’s said.

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BERLIN kontan. Kenaikan tingkat investasi mendongkrak perekonomian Jerman pada kuartal pertama. Bahkan pertumbuhannya digadang-gadang merupakan yang tercepat dalam dua tahun terakhir.

Berdasarkan data yang dirilis Federal Statistics Office di Wiesbaden, aktivitas pembangunan di Jerman melonjak 2,3% pada awal tahun ini. Kondisi itu menarik modal investasi dengan kenaikan 1,8%.

Di sisi lain, konsumsi swasta naik tipis sebesar 0,4%. Alhasil, tingkat Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Jerman naik 0,7% pada periode Januari hingga Maret. Pencapaian tersebut sejalan dengan estimasi pelaku pasar yang disurvei pada 13 Mei lalu.

Sementara itu, rendahnya angka pengangguran Jerman menggarisbawahi tingkat permintaan konsumen. Sedangkan perusahaan Jerman tengah mengecap manisnya siklus pemulihan ekonomi 19 negara euro, dampak dari stimulus yang digelontorkan Bank Sentral Eropa.

Bank sentral Jerman, Deutsche Bundesbank, optimistis bahwa perekonomian negara mereka mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhannya kendati ekspansi diprediksi melambat pada kuartal ini.

“Pertumbuhan dipengaruhi faktor eksternal, dengan konsumsi swasta dan investasi konstruksi memberikan kontribusi terbesar,” jelas Johannes Gareis, ekonom Natixis di Frankfurt.

Dia menambahkan, dengan melihat pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal II, ekonomi Jerman sepertinya sulit mengulangi pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal satu.

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Frankfurt, May 13, 2016 (AFP)
The German economy, Europe’s biggest, grew at its fastest rate in two years in the first three months of 2016, outpacing both the rest of the eurozone and the Group of Seven most industrialised countries, data showed on Friday.

Driven by booming domestic demand, German gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.7 percent in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in the period from January to March, the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

That was faster than the growth of 0.3 percent notched up in the preceding quarter and also faster than the 0.5 percent analysts had been predicting for the first quarter of this year.

“Positive impulses came primarily from domestic demand,” the statisticians said.

“Private households and the government increased their spending and investments were also higher,” the statement continued.

The mild weather boosted activity in the construction sector and investment in equipment also increased.

By contrast, foreign trade had a moderately dampening effect because exports did not grow as fast as imports, meaning the overall trade surplus — the balance between imports and exports — fell, Destatis said.

On a 12-month basis, GDP expanded by 1.3 percent in the January-March period compared with the same period a year earlier.

The data are still only preliminary. A more detailed breakdown of the different GDP components will be published on May 24.

– Outpacing its peers –

But economists hailed Germany’s robust economic performance.

“It was the strongest increase in the last two years. Looking at the so far available G7 data shows that Germany even outpaced its peers,” said UniCredit economist Andreas Rees.

The expert conceded that special circumstances, such as the mild winter weather may have given growth an additional boost.

But even without that, the recovery would have gathered pace, he argued.

“The German economy is in the midst of a regime change towards more domestic demand. Both private consumer expenditures and investment in machinery and equipment continued their recovery. We’re sticking to our growth forecast of 1.8 percent for 2016.

Ferdinand Fichtner of the Berlin-based think-tank DIW was more cautious.

“Germany is still only in a moderate upturn,” he said.

Dirk Schlotboeller, economist at the DIHK federation of chambers of commerce, said the German economy had gotten off to a “turbo-charged start” to the year. But the combination of a number of favourable factors — such as cheap oil prices, increased spending related to the refugee crisis and the mild weather — “is unlikely to be repeated again so quickly.”

BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar said the dampening effect of foreign trade was not particularly worrying because exports were not inherently weak.

“Nevertheless, we don’t expect the high rate of growth to continue in the second quarter,” he said.

ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski pointed out that the German economy has been recovering for seven consecutive quarters.

“Without the small stagnation in the second quarter of 2014, the economy could now look back at twelve consecutive quarters of economic growth. Very impressive!” he said, but warned that German policymakers should not be complacent.

Separately, the federal statistics office Destatis confirmed a preliminary flash estimate for inflation which showed a 0.1-percent drop in consumer prices in April, largely as a result of falling energy prices.

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JAKARTA okezone- Bank Sentral Eropa atau The European Central Bank (ECB) tetap mempertahankan kebijakan ‘ultra-loose monetary‘. Ketatnya kebijakan ini tetap dilakukan meski mendapat kritikan dari Jerman.

Dewan bank sentral menetapkan tingkat suku bunga tetap berada di level 0 persen sementara untuk bunga deposito dipatok minus 0,4 persen. [Baca juga: BI Sebut Bank Sentral Eropa Pangkas Suku Bunga karena ‘Galau’]

Sebelumnya, Menteri Keuangan Jerman Wolfgang Schaeuble mengungkapkan kekhawatirannya mengenai kebijakan ‘ultra low rates’.

“Periode yang panjang dengan suku bunga nol dan negatif bukan situasi yang masuk akal, ” katanya.

Pada bulan Maret lalu, ECB memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi di zona euro, yang memiliki rata-rata 1,4 persen pada tahun 2016.

(rzy)

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Bank Indonesia menilai keputusan bank sentral Eropa menurunkan suku bungan acuan menjadi nol persen bakal menarik dana investasi ke negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia.

European Central Bank (ECB) telah menurunkan suku bunga acuannya sebanyak lima basis poin menjadi 0%. Selain itu, fasilitas pinjaman marjinal juga diturunkan menjadi 0,25% dan suku bunga fasilitas depositi menurun menjadi minus 0,4% terhitung 16 Maret 2016.

Deputi Gubernur Senior Bank Indonesia Mirza Adityaswara mengatakan dampak dari aksi ECB itu bakal mempengaruhi aliran modal ke negara emerging market di Asia karena investor pasar modal kurang tertarik terhadap kebijakan suku bunga rendah termasuk di level minus yang dulu diterapkan

Sebelumnya, BI melaporkan  dana asing yang masuk ke Indonesia hingga pekan keempat Februari 2016 telah mencapai Rp35 triliun ke surat berharga negara dan pasar modal.

“Dampaknya ke negara emerging market di asia kembali lagi pengaruhnya pada aliran modal, karena kalau Eropa dan Jepang punya suku bunga yang negatif kemudian melonggarkan stimulus moneter maka investasi bagi investor pasar modal menjadi kurang menarik,” jelasnya, di Jakarta, Jumat (11/3/2016).

Namun, dia melihat adanya dampak deflasi yang berkepanjangan di Eropa dan Jepang karena harga barang mengalami penurunan. Hal itu dapat membuat produsen tidak bergairah untuk berproduksi. Harapan suku bunga negatif sebelumnya diharapkan dapat membuat perbankan menyalurkan kredit.

“Tapi permasalahannya perbankannya mau menyalurkan kredit, tetapi permintaan kreditnya tidak terjadi,” imbuhnya.

Mirza menambahkan konsumen berekspetasi harga yang turun sehingga tidak melakukan konsumsi. Produsen juga tidak berproduksi sehingga tidak membutuhkan kredit.

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Berlin, March 11, 2016 (AFP)
Consumer prices stagnated in Germany in February, official data showed Friday, with plunging energy prices dragging inflation down.

Germany’s national inflation yardstick, the consumer price index, stood at zero percent in February compared to 0.5 percent in January, the federal statistics office Destatis said, confirming a flash estimate issued earlier this month.

Pointing to a slide in energy prices which reached a 8.5-percent drop year on year for February, Destatis said inflation would have been in positive territory if not for the slump in the oil sector.

Because of its economic weight in Europe, Germany’s consumer price trends are closely watched, especially at a time when the European Central Bank is pouring billions of euros into battling chronically low inflation in the eurozone.

The latest data came a day after the ECB fired off a volley of shots to avert deflation — including slashing already record-low interest rates, announcing that massive new sums would be pumped into the banking system and, for the first time, saying it would begin buying corporate bonds.

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Renowned cosmologist Stephen Hawking was among 150 academics to declare support for Britain remaining in the European Union on Thursday in a letter that said leaving the bloc would damage science and research.

“If the UK leaves the EU and there is a loss of freedom of movement of scientists between the UK and Europe, it will be a disaster for UK science and universities,” the academics wrote in a letter to The Times newspaper.

The over 150 signatories are Cambridge scientists, mathematicians, engineers and economists and all are also fellows of the Royal Society, Britain’s leading scientific institution.

Other signatories included Martin Rees, the astronomer royal and former president of the Royal Society, University of Cambridge physicist Athene Donald, and letter organiser Alan Fersht, a leading chemist.

Britain is due to vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc. Opinion polls show that the campaign to remain within the EU is slightly ahead, but its lead over the “leave” campaign has narrowed in recent months.

In the letter, the scientists argued that science was vital for Britain’s long-term prosperity and that membership of the EU had increased funding of science and allowed the country to recruit talented researchers from continental Europe.

“Investment in science is as important for the long-term prosperity and security of the UK as investment in infrastructure projects, farming or manufacturing; and the free movement of scientists is as important for science as free trade is for market economics,” they wrote.

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DENPASAR okezone – Kegiatan ekspor bunga kering dari perajin di Kota Denpasar, Bali untuk tujuan ke Jerman, belakangan ini terhenti karena terjadinya krisis ekonomi yang melanda negara-negara Eropa.

“Sebenarnya sudah lama kami mengekspor bunga kering ke Jerman, tapi sejak ada krisis ekonomi di Eropa beberapa waktu lalu, maka ekspor itu terhenti. Padahal Jerman itu pasar yang potensial sekali untuk pemasaran bunga kering,” kata Asri Kardha, perajin bunga kering di Denpasar, Minggu (28/2/2016).

Dia melanjutkan, kerajinan bunga kering itu sudah dirintis sejak tahun 1998 dengan menggunakan bahan baku dari alam. Antara lain memakai kulit jagung, daun lontar, buah lotus, buah palem, ‘keloping’ kelapa, buah kepu dan berbagai jenis buah lain yang sifatnya keras.

Bahan baku itu dicari dari berbagai daerah di Bali. Khususnya di Denpasar, Kintamani dan Bedugul. Belakangan pencarian bahan baku dilakukan dengan menggalang kerja sama dengan tukang kebun hotel, pemulung atau tukang sapu di jalanan.

“Soal bahan baku tidak pernah ada masalah, karena pasokan selalu ada. Justru faktor cuaca yang jadi masalah berhubung sekarang ini kan musim hujan. Jadi pengeringan bahan baku terkendala faktor alam,” ujar Asri.

Untuk mengeringkan bahan baku, ucap dia, memang membutuhkan waktu dua hingga empat hari, agar bahan baku benar-benar tidak ada kandungan air. Proses pengeringan pun harus sering dilakukan berkali-kali, apalagi jika bahan baku itu melalui proses pewarnaan.

“Tapi kalau konsumen dari Jerman, lebih suka rangkaian bunga kering dengan warna natural, alami seperti di alam. Tidak pakai pewarna tertentu,” ujar sekretaris Iwapi ini.

Sembari menunggu kemungkinan mengekspor kembali kerajinan bunga kering ke luar negeri, Asri pun mempergiat untuk promosi ke berbagai pameran baik di Bali maupun luar daerah.

“Even tahunan Pesta Kesenian Bali (PKB) tidak pernah dilewatkan dan respon masyarakat sangat bagus. Asal ada produk rangkaian bunga kering baru, selalu diburu. Harga terjangkau, kalau keloping kelapa yang bisa digunakan untuk tempat buah harganya Rp20 ribu,” katanya.

Untuk rangkaian bunga, lanjutnya, harganya mulai dari Rp75 ribu hingga pernah mencapai Rp2,7 juta. “Harga yang terakhir untuk rangkaian bunga setinggi tiga meter, yang dipesan untuk menghias lobi hotel atau perkantoran. Rangkaian bunga berukuran tinggi ramai kalau mau pergantian tahun atau hari raya keagamaan,” ucap dia.

Ketika pasar domestik mulai ramai, katanya, ada permasalahan dengan pengemasan produk. Saat rangkaian bunga itu mau dikirimkan ke konsumen di luar Bali, maka memerlukan pengemasan khusus agar tiba di tempat tujuan dalam keadaan tetap bagus. Pengemasan inilah yang nilainya cukup mahal, sehingga kadang melebihi harga produk kerajinan bunga kering.

“Saya masih mencari-cari produsen produk kemasan produk untuk diajak bekerja sama. Jika masalah kemasan sudah teratasi, maka pasar domestik bisa digenjot pemasarannya. Kalau kirim keluar negeri pakai kontainer jadi barang aman sampai tujuan,” ucap dia.

(wdi)

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Washington, Feb 4, 2016 (AFP)
The International Monetary Fund does not wish to slap “draconian measures” on hard-up Greece but wants more government progress on pension reform, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said Thursday.

Lagarde spoke as Greece was hit by a general strike that brought tens of thousands of people into the streets in protest over pension reforms, a key part of Greece’s latest economic bailout by the European Union.

“I really don’t like it when we’re portrayed as this draconian, rigorous, terrible IMF,” Lagarde said in an online news conference.

“We don’t want draconian measures to apply to Greece, which has already made a lot of sacrifices.”

But she insisted that the Greek reform program has to keep on track, notably on pension reforms, a key issue in negotiations between the government and its creditors.

According to Lagarde, the current pension system, which costs the equivalent of 10 percent of the Greek economy annually, is not sustainable and should undergo a profound overhaul.

In Europe, the average pension ratio is 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, she noted.

The Europeans and the IMF have contested certain parts of the reform measures proposed by Athens, sparking the general strike Thursday.

Pension reforms were part of the conditions imposed by the IMF for it to participate in the EU bailout of Greece last July.

The crisis lender, which joined with the European Commission and the European Central Bank in the two prior bailouts of Greece, has not decided whether to join the latest one.

The IMF is calling for reforms by Athens and for the Europeans to ease the country’s debt burden.

“The pension system needs to be reformed, the tax-collection system needs to be improved so that revenues come in and evasion is stopped,” Lagarde said.

“And the debt relief by the other Europeans must accompany this process.”

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FRANKFURT okezone – Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) siap untuk memainkan perannya dalam membantu pemulihan ekonomi, Ketua ECB Mario Draghi memperingatkan risiko-risiko terhadap pertumbuhan.

“Prospek pertumbuhan secara perlahan membaik di negara-negara maju, tetapi prospek di negara-negara berkembang lebih lemah. Secara keseluruhan, pertumbuhan rendah berdasarkan standar-standar historis,” kata Draghi.

“ECB bersedia untuk mengontribusikan perannya guna memastikan bahwa pemulihan tetap secara kuat di jalurnya,” kata dia.

Tetapi, Draghi memperingatkan ada risiko-risiko empat kali lipat yang dapat merusak ekonomi. Menurutnya, kebijakan ekonomi negara-negara anggota zona euro dan ketidakpastian politik seputar proyek Eropa, yang tengah berupaya membujuk Inggris di Uni Eropa, diperkirakan akan memberikan sentimen tersendiri.

“Sebuah solusi yang akan mempertahankan Kerajaan Inggris secara kuat di dalam Uni Eropa, sementara kemungkinan kawasan euro untuk berintegrasi lebih lanjut akan meningkatkan kepercayaan,” katanya.

ECB telah meluncurkan berbagai langkah kebijakan yang berbeda untuk membantu ekonomi zona euro kembali pada jalurnya, terakhir program kontroversial pembelian obligasi yang dikenal sebagai pelonggaran kuantitatif atau QE.

(mrt)

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Davos, Switzerland, Jan 21, 2016 (AFP)
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned Thursday that the European Union faced a host of dangers and could “fracture” in the months to come.

Valls told reporters he had come to the gathering of billionaires and political leaders in Davos to speak about “all the dangers which could lead to a fracturing of the European project, and not in a few years or decades, but in the next few months”.

He cited terrorism, the refugee crisis and a possible British exit from the bloc among the dangers.

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Berlin, Jan 14, 2016 (AFP)
The German economy, Europe’s biggest, grew by 1.7 percent in 2015, fractionally faster than in the year before, the federal statistics office Destatis said on Thursday.

At the same time, Destatis said that Germany notched up a surplus on its public budget equivalent to 0.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The eurozone’s economy lost steam in the latest quarter as Portugal stalled, Germany slowed and debt-stricken Greece contracted.

Gross domestic product (GDP) across the 19 countries in the single currency bloc rose just 0.3% in the third quarter, according to Eurostat. That defied expectations for growth to hold at 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. On a year earlier, GDP was up 1.6%, lower than forecasts for 1.7%.

The July to September figures mark a slowdown from eurozone GDP growth of 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.5% in the first quarter and come as the European Central Bank (ECB) hints that it is planning to inject further funds into the eurozone economy to maintain recovery.

Germany, the eurozone’s biggest economy, grew 0.3% as expected, but that was a notch down from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. France’s economy grew 0.3%, a rebound from no growth in the second quarter.

But Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Finland all undershot market expectations. Greece swung from growing 0.4% in the second quarter to shrinking 0.5%.

Italy, the bloc’s third-largest economy after Germany and France, grew 0.2%, behind a Reuters poll forecast for 0.3%. GDP in the Netherlands was up a mere 0.1% against expectations of 0.3%. Portugal did not grow at all and Finland’s economy shrank a larger-than-expected 0.6%.

The ECB president, Mario Draghi, has previously signalled he is prepared to cut interest rates and increase quantitative easing (QE) to stave off the risk of a renewed economic slump in the eurozone. Economists said the latest figures would add to impetus for him to act on recent comments.

“The euro area’s pace of economic growth lost a little momentum in the third quarter, despite the additional central bank stimulus seen so far this year and a weakened, competitive, currency,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which compiles surveys on eurozone economies.

“The subdued pace of growth and persistent weak inflation applies further pressure on the ECB and increases the likelihood of the further measures being announced in December.”

This early estimate of eurozone GDP does not contain any detail on what was driving growth, economists noted. But based on surveys and data out from individual countries it appeared household spending was doing the heavy lifting, they said.

Meanwhile, manufacturers have been struggling with a slowdown in global demand on the back of China’s downturn and turmoil in other emerging market economies.

“Consumers probably saved the day for the eurozone economy in the third quarter. Both the renewed fall in energy prices and the declining unemployment rate have likely boosted disposable income, supporting consumption, in our view the single most important driver of the expansion at this moment,” said Peter Vanden Houte at ING Financial Markets.

“Bottom line: the eurozone recovery is continuing, but it seems like driving with the handbrake on. With the emerging countries still in the doldrums, little acceleration is to be expected in the coming quarters.”

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Frankfurt, Sept 30, 2015 (AFP)
German retail sales, a closely watched measure of household confidence, eased in August, amid signs consumer sentiment in Europe’s top economy could be starting to wane, official data showed on Wednesday.

Retailers’ sales slipped by by 0.4 percent in August compared with July, the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

The previous month, retail sales had risen by 1.6 percent.

On a 12-month basis, business had increased strongly, jumping by 2.4 percent in August compared with the same month last year, the statisticians calculated.

Retail sales data are often revised.

Last week, a leading consumer sentiment survey, conducted by the GfK market research institute, found that consumers are beginning to worry about the economic consequences of the huge influx of migrants in Europe’s refugee crisis.

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Cheating scandal bodes ill for German economy

SHOGO AKAGAWA, Nikkei staff writer

BERLIN — The Volkswagen emissions scandal has damaged Germany’s reputation for high-quality, environmentally sound manufacturing, shaking the credibility of both the automaker and domestic industry as a whole.

More broadly, Dieselgate threatens to put a damper on Europe’s biggest economy at a time when the region is trying to reignite growth.

The leading European automaker quickly revamped management following revelations that its diesel cars passed U.S. emissions tests by underhanded means. But earnings have yet to feel the impact of the shocking admission. Many of the suspect cars were sold in Europe — at least 2.8 million will need to be checked for the cheating software in Germany alone. Costly recalls loom.

So does the threat of fines. The global financial crisis has galvanized public opinion in rich countries against corporate wrongdoing, and the authorities are eager to throw the book at violators. Volkswagen may also get hit with lawsuits from shareholders hurt by its crashing stock price. And with a tarnished brand, its new-car sales will likely suffer.

The automaker’s strong balance sheet will stand up to considerable financial hardship. The company is expected to try avoiding payroll reductions through a variety of methods, such as shortening work hours, in the event of production cutbacks. But the potential for job losses remains a concern. Jobs are under threat at not only Volkswagen itself, but also at its suppliers, said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research.

Employment in the nation’s auto industry has grown an annual 2-3%, which works out to almost 20,000 new jobs a year. Should this driver of job creation slow as a result of Volkswagen’s self-inflicted wound, domestic demand may slacken, dragging on the entire European economy.

The contamination spreads

Beyond that, the scandal cuts to the heart of Germany’s image as a manufacturing superpower. The country prides itself on innovations like the diesel engine, developed at the end of the 19th century by its own Rudolf Diesel. A national effort is underway to take manufacturing to a new level, Industrie 4.0, where hardware and computing meld to reduce costs. Anything that discredits Germany’s technological pursuits may sap a vital source of its economic momentum.

All of this poses a very real problem for the European countries economically dependent on Germany. In neighboring Poland, where the Volkswagen group employs more than 10,000 people, media outlets have been covering the scandal in depth. Economy Minister Janusz Piechocinski said he wants an explanation from the automaker, according to a local media report.

Volkswagen’s corporate culture has been blamed for driving it to cheat. CEO Martin Winterkorn, who resigned last week over the scandal, was described as “arrogant” and “authoritarian.” Some compared the top-down way in which the organization is run to the Prussian bureaucracy.

SHOGO AKAGAWA, Nikkei staff writer

     But expecting the automaker to fall behind in its home market would be premature. Domestic makes like Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW dominated new-car sales last month. Japanese and other rivals are unlikely to make quick inroads.

The government went so far as to rescue Opel, a local subsidiary of U.S. automaker General Motors, in 2009 out of concern for domestic jobs — and voter opinion. This shows the strength of the public’s bond with the auto industry.

Economic engine

Born out of Nazi-era economic policy, Volkswagen began work on its first factory in 1938. It was run by its home state of Lower Saxony after World War II until its privatization in the 1960s. The group now employs some 600,000 people worldwide, about 270,000 of them in Germany.

Under Winterkorn’s leadership, which began in 2007, German operations grew on the back of swiftly rising exports. Domestic output totaled 2.56 million vehicles last year, up 32% from 2006, despite little demand growth in the home market. The group’s domestic workforce expanded by 90,000 over the same period.

The automaker’s research and development budget — about 11.5 billion euros ($12.8 billion) as of last year — consistently ranks among the highest in the corporate world. Engineers skilled in such fields as environmental and information technology have been recruited in recent years.

Germany is home to other big names in autos, including Daimler and BMW. Its automakers racked up a record-high 367.9 billion euros in sales last year, making their business the biggest domestic industry, with roughly a fifth of the total size, according to the German Association of the Automotive Industry. Exports account for two-thirds of this value. A weak euro has helped sell more German cars abroad in recent years, complementing their reputation for quality and safety.

With additional reporting by Takayuki Kato in Frankfurt, Germany.

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Athens, Sept 22, 2015 (AFP)
Greece’s newly-elected Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras unveiled his new government on Tuesday, giving the crisis-hit country’s key finance portfolio to Euclid Tsakalotos and defence to his nationalist coalition ally, the Independent Greeks.Oxford-educated New Left economist Tsakalotos will face the tough challenge of steering unpopular economic reforms pledged by Tsipras in July in return for Greece’s third bailout by international creditors in five years.The make-up of the new cabinet, announced by its spokeswoman Olga Gerovassili, was largely a carbon-copy of the outgoing government headed by Tsipras, who resigned in August after seven months in office after losing his majority when anti-euro hardliners in his Syriza party quit in anger over the reform-and-rescue deal.Panos Kammenos, who heads the nationalist Independent Greeks, had defence in the previous government.Tsakalotos too ran the crucial finance ministry in the last weeks of the first Tsipras mandate, taking over the portfolio in July from outspoken maverick economist Yanis Varoufakis.Staunchly in favour of Greece remaining in the euro area, he is said to have won the esteem of his European Union peers during negotiations on the controversial 68-million-euro ($97 billion) deal to rescue Greece.Tsipras, whose Syriza party won January elections on an anti-austerity campaign, had said he finally agreed to the harsh belt-tightening measures in the cash-for-reform agreement to keep Greece in the euro.
Mavrothalassa, Greece, Sept 18, 2015 (AFP)
Party rallies are drawing crowds in most Greek cities ahead of Sunday’s general election, but in the village of Mavrothalassa, deep in the country’s agricultural north, politicians would be wise to stay away.”Political parties have no place here,” says Yiannis Panagis, a farm unionist coordinating a tractor protest outside the area’s defunct tomato processing factory, shut down due to competition from China.”After the election, we know we’ll have the political system against us. But we will not let them turn us into serfs,” he says.Once part of Greece’s tax-privileged classes, farmers are facing a radical income overhaul under the terms of a new international bailout agreed by the leftist government of Alexis Tsipras before his resignation in August.Their income tax rate is to progressively double to 26 percent from 13 percent currently, their pension contributions will rise, and a vital tax break on fuel will be scrapped.Yiorgos, a 37-year-old farmer, describes these measures as the “final nail in the coffin” of the Greek agricultural sector.”I am disappointed and angry. For the first time in my life I don’t want to vote,” Yiorgos says.- Farmers brace to hit back -Greek farmers have suffered years of falling prices, but have faced criticism for being over-reliant on EU subsidies and failing to adapt to a changing market.They mount protests almost every year, blocking toll and border crossings against the rising cost of supplies and the falling price of produce.To avoid taking sides ahead of Sunday’s vote, the protests have been kept local so far.”We will gather to take decisions after the election,” says Stelios Vogiatzis, general secretary of the Panhellenic Farmers’ Union.But the backlash they plan later this year will rival the angry French movement in August that saw highways blocked, foreign trucks ransacked and manure dumped in cities, some warn.”The French mobilisation will be nothing compared to what we are prepared to do if the new government tries to enforce these tough measures,” says 40-year-old sugar beet farmer Zafeiris Kyrgiannakis.”In a few years, the village will be abandoned. The conglomerates will buy our land and put us to work on it. Is this Europe’s plan for us?” adds 43-year-old farmer Thanasis Gegas, a father of two.”For 20 years, governments and parties have lied to us. Now it seems they want to wipe us out,” he says.”I’m one of the few people who stayed behind in the village. But the way this is going, there will be no young people left.”- Failed to adapt -Greek farms tend to be run on a smaller scale than some of their European competitors, which analysts say has left them struggling to keep up.”The Greek agricultural model is condemned to change,” says Stavriani Koutsou, a professor of urban and rural sociology at the technical institute of Thessaloniki.”The average size of a Greek farm is 4.9 hectares compared to over 20 hectares in France. It’s difficult to stay competitive in Europe,” she says.But union leader Vogiatzis argues that the new measures are impossible to manage.”The average farm family earns 12,000 euros ($13,500) a year and with the new tax rates it must pay 6,000 euros. Which family can live on 6,000 euros a year?” he asks.Farmers remain a key voting group in Greece — especially for the conservative New Democracy party, which has a clear shot at taking power on Sunday and has jumped to their defence.Speaking in the agricultural hub of Velestino earlier this month, New Democracy chief Vangelis Meimarakis said he would oppose the tax changes.”The farmers have given what they can to the national effort… It is unthinkable to accept even tougher measures,” Meimarakis said.

His leftist opponent Tsipras has also pledged to renegotiate as much of the bailout as possible to help the country’s poorest citizens.

The next Greek government must approve the farmer tax overhaul in October — or offer credible alternatives — in return for bailout funds.

Brussels, Sept 8, 2015 (AFP)
The 19-nation eurozone grew by 0.4 percent in the second quarter, official data showed on Tuesday, revising upward a first estimate that sparked worries about the health of the European economy.Last month, the EU’s Eurostat agency said the eurozone grew by just 0.3 percent in the April to June period.Eurostat also updated the first quarter growth figure from 0.4 percent to 0.5 percent, boosted by high-growth Ireland which was not included earlier estimates, a Eurostat official said.
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BEIJING washington post — Asian stocks were mostly lower Monday while Europe rose after Chinese officials said market turbulence was ending and uneasy investors mulled the timing of a U.S. rate hike and looked ahead to data on China’s slowing economy.KEEPING SCORE: In early trading, France’s CAC-40 climbed 1 percent to 4,566.30 and Germany’s DAX gained 0.8 percent to 10,121.70. Britain’s FTSE 100 added 0.9 percent to 6,099.99. On Friday, the CAC-40 lost 2.8 percent and the DAX declined 2.7 percent while Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent. Wall Street is closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.CHINA RHETORIC: China’s central bank governor, finance minister and securities agency tried to reassure investors over the weekend that market turmoil was ending. At a meeting of the Group of 20 major economies. People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said Beijing’s intervention averted a bigger crisis, according to a central bank statement. After a four-day holiday weekend, investors were looking ahead to data this week that are expected to show weak trade but strong growth in retail sales. Also Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics reduced its estimate of 2014 economic growth, already a two-decade low, by 0.1 point to 7.3 percent.ASIA’S DAY: The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.5 percent to 3,080.42 after fluctuating between gains and losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.2 percent to 20,583.52. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4 percent to 17,860.47 while India’s Sensex declined 0.3 percent to 23,135.45. Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.2 percent to 5,030.40 and Seoul’s Kospi was off 0.2 percent at 1,883.22. Taiwan, Singapore and Jakarta also declined.ANALYST’S TAKE: “Whether or not we have realistically seen the lows in the various Chinese markets is yet to be seen, but the belief and assurance provided by the Chinese authorities over the weekend suggests we may see better days ahead,” said strategist Chris Weston of IG Markets in a report.

US JITTERS: A mixed report on August employment left investors wondering what the Federal Reserve might do about interest rates at a meeting this month. Friday’s report showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low but employers added fewer jobs than forecast. The Fed’s deputy chairman said earlier that the U.S. central bank still was on track for a rate hike this year, but Friday’s report fueled uncertainty about whether it will feel confident enough to act. The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate close to zero since late 2008, which has pushed up stock prices.

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WALL STREET: On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 272.38 points, or 1.7 percent, to 16,102.38. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gave up 29.91 points, or 1.5 percent, to 1,921.22; the index ended the week down 3.4 percent, its second-worst weekly drop of the year. The Nasdaq composite slipped 49.58 points, or 1.1 percent, to 4,683.92.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude fell 43 cents to $45.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, it shed 70 cents to close at $46.05 in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, lost 60 cents to $49.02 in London after falling $1.07 to $49.61 on Friday.

CURRENCIES: The dollar gained to 119.28 yen from 119.04 yen on Friday. The euro edged up to $1.1160 from $1.1147.

Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Fed, ECB, BOE Officials All Say They See Inflation Rising
Jeff Black Christopher Condon
August 30, 2015 — 2:05 AM WIB
Updated on August 30, 2015 — 4:50 AM WIBStronger growth will pull inflation higher in the U.S. and Europe, according to three top central bankers who voiced confidence that their regions will escape from headwinds that are keeping inflation too low.Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer joined European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Saturday on a panel at the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, dedicated to discussing inflation dynamics. Their optimism has not been shared up until now by investors, trading in inflation-protected bonds shows.“Given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” Fischer said in his prepared remarks.“With inflation low, we can probably remove accommodation at a gradual pace,” Fischer said. “Yet, because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2 percent to begin tightening.”While Fischer has left open the option of an interest-rate increase when policy makers meet next month, he didn’t express a preference for acting that soon.“I do not plan to upset your rational expectation that I cannot tell you what decision the Fed will reach by Sept. 17,” he told the symposium Saturday.
Future InflationPrice increases in the U.S. and Europe have been running well below levels targeted by the central banks, where officials are debating what slower Chinese growth and weaker commodity prices could mean for future inflation.While U.S. officials are weighing the timing of their first interest-rate increase since 2006, and the Bank of England may tighten in early 2016, the ECB has heard calls to extend its quantitative easing program to provide more protection against potential deflation.“The link between inflation and real activity appears to have strengthened in the euro area recently,” the ECB’s Constancio said in a paper delivered at Jackson Hole. “Provided our policies are able to significantly reduce the output gap, we can rely on a material effect to help bring the inflation rate closer to target.”
Market ExpectationsInvestors may not share this optimism. Five-year, five-year inflation swaps in the euro area — which reflect expectations for the five-year path of inflation five years from now — show that market-based inflation expectations slid to about 1.65 percent in August from about 1.85 percent at the beginning of the month. That’s almost as low as when the ECB started its quantitative easing program in March.In the U.S., the five-year, five-year forward breakeven rate, 2.16 percent at the beginning of August, slid as low as 1.89 percent on Aug. 24.Such movements show that “we should however be cautious in our assessment that inflation expectations are remaining stable,” Fischer said. Still, “these movements can be hard to interpret, as at times they may reflect factors other than inflation expectations.”Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi both skipped the Jackson Hole event this year. The ECB Governing Council meets in Frankfurt on Sept. 3 while the Fed’s policy-setting committee gathers on Sept. 16-17. Both banks are short of their 2 percent inflation targets. Euro-zone inflation was 0.2 percent in July, while the price gauge favored by the Fed rose 0.3 percent in the 12 months through July.
U.K. MomentumIn the U.K., Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said “the prospect of sustained momentum” in the economy and a gradual pickup in inflationary pressures “will likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalization into sharper relief around the turn of this year.”He said “recent events” including China’s slowdown so far don’t call for changing the BOE’s strategy for returning inflation to target. U.K. headline inflation was just 0.1 percent in July, well below the bank’s 2 percent goal.While the world’s major central banks are focused on bringing inflation up, the lack of price pressure isn’t a universal problem, said Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India.“Unlike our other panelists, I have the problem of dealing with the traditional central banker problem of high inflation and the task of bringing it down,” he said. “We’re disinflating in a world of very low global inflation and that has problems.”Athens, Aug 28, 2015 (AFP)
Greece’s economy grew by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, official date showed Friday, improving on the 0.8 percent figure reported in a flash estimate earlier in August.”Seasonally adjusted data indicate that in the second quarter of 2015 (output) increased by 0.9 percent compared with the first quarter of 2015 against the increase of 0.8 percent that was calculated for the flash estimate,” the state statistics agency said, as the country headed for early elections next month.In the first quarter, the economy grew by 0.1 percent, the agency said, also revising upward its previous estimate of zero growth released on August 13.The figures have come as a surprise as the period in question was marked by fraught talks between Greece and its international creditors that raised fears of a possible Greek exit from the eurozone.Greece on Friday appointed a caretaker government to hold elections expected on September 20, its fifth in six years.Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras is seeking re-election, pledging to soften the blow of an unpopular third bailout that his administration approved in July, splitting his Syriza party.Athens, Aug 11, 2015 (AFP)
Greece and its creditors early Tuesday reached an agreement on fiscal targets for the debt-ridden nation, staying on course for a bailout deal to avert an August 20 default.A government source told state agency ANA that Athens had committed to a primary deficit of 0.25 percent of output in 2015, and a surplus in 2016, meaning that no new fiscal measures will be necessary until then, the source said.In 2016 the primary surplus — the balance not including debt service — will be 0.5 percent, followed by 1.75 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent in 2018, the source said.There was no immediate detail forthcoming from the government on other sticking points with the creditors, including how to deal with some 90 billion euros in bad loans burdening banks.Greece needs to reach an agreement on its third bailout by August 20, when it must repay 3.4 billion euros ($3.7 billion) to the European Central Bank.Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos had earlier urged “optimism that there will be a deal soon” after taking a break from marathon talks with EU-IMF negotiators late Monday to brief Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras.

“We have a discussion… that is going quite well,” Tsakalotos said after the briefing.

“There are issues (the creditors) want to discuss again and again, but I think there should be optimism that there will be a deal soon… I don’t know if it will be tomorrow morning, but soon, it will be soon,” he said.

The talks between Tsakalotos, Economy Minister Giorgos Stathakis, and the ECB, the International Monetary Fund and the European Stability Mechanism aim to finalise the list of new reforms to be required of the Greek government in exchange for a lifeline of up to 86 billion euros ($94 billion).

But Germany may stand in the way of a full disbursement of the third bailout, which comes on top of two earlier rescue packages totalling 240 billion euros.

Appearing to throw cold water on the positive comments from both sides, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters: “The principle ‘thoroughness over speed’ applies here in particular.”

Berlin favours a stopgap solution such as the short-term EU bridging loan of seven billion euros that enabled Greece to meet debt payments to the IMF and ECB in June and July.

German lawmaker Ralph Brinkhaus, a top official of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party, said earlier Monday that such a solution would be “better than a bad agreement”.

On the back of expectations of an imminent agreement, the Athens stock exchange on Monday jumped 2.06 percent, its third day of gains.

– Snap elections? –

Greece and its creditors are yet to announce a consensus on other issues, including raising a solidarity tax on large incomes and VAT (sales) taxes on private studies, petrol for farmers and beef.

Any decision affecting farmers — an influential group in Greece — carries political risk and Tsipras last week promised to extract as many concessions as possible from the creditors.

On Monday, the prime minister pledged to cut lawmaker tax breaks and ministers’ salaries in a “symbolic” move to appease Greek society.

“When the issue of scrapping tax breaks for farmers falls on the negotiating table, we cannot pretend not to care about our own tax breaks,” Tsipras said.

The Greek parliament may vote on the accord on Thursday, after which eurozone finance ministers could be asked to approve it on Friday.

Tsipras meanwhile is under pressure from many in his radical left Syriza party who say the new accord will pile further austerity on a weakened economy and goes against the party’s campaign pledges.

But with his popularity among Greeks still high, Tsipras has warned the dissidents of early elections in the autumn if they continue to resist the measures.

Former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, who is opposed to the new bailout agreement, has dismissed it as “a negotiating fiasco” and said Tsipras could not “avoid the outcry by resorting guiltily and hurriedly to elections”.

Iskra, a website of the Lafazanis-led Left Platform, the anti-euro group inside Syriza, on Saturday raised the prospect of snap elections as soon as the first half of September.

Quoting anonymous government sources, the website said the plan was to rush the bailout accord through parliament and then immediately call for snap elections in order to “purge” MPs who oppose the new deal.

However, the government spokeswoman insisted Monday that “there are no electoral thoughts”.

“The election talk cultivated in recent days is neither useful nor does it correspond to reality,” spokeswoman Olga Gerovasili said in a statement, adding that the government was focused on concluding a deal and then negotiating debt relief with its creditors.

Washington, Aug 6, 2015 (AFP)
Greece made a loan interest payment due Thursday to the International Monetary Fund, the institution said, avoiding another default as the debt-riddled country negotiates a third rescue plan.

“Greece has paid the interest charges due to the IMF today,” which amount to about 186.3 million euros ($203.6 million), the International Monetary Fund said in a statement.

The payment was the first time since early June that Greece had met the deadline for its loan payments to the IMF.

Cash-strapped Greece missed a 1.5 billion euro repayment on June 30, becoming the first developed country to default on an IMF loan. Less than two weeks later, Greece missed a 456 million euro payment to the IMF.

When it first defaulted at the end of June, the IMF froze Greece’s access to its resources, including the Fund’s ongoing financing program for the country.

However, on July 20, Greece paid the IMF about two billion euros in arrears, after it received an emergency bridge loan from the European Union, restoring its eligibility for IMF financing.

Representatives of the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank — the international creditors of Greece’s two bailouts since 2010 — are currently in Athens holding negotiations with the Greek authorities on a third bailout.

Greece needs a deal that will unlock bailout funds by August 20, when it must repay some 3.4 billion euros due to the European Central Bank.

After Thursday’s payment to the IMF, Athens still owes about 22 billion euros, according to the Washington-based institution’s website.

The next IMF payment, of about 307 million euros, is due on September 1.

LONDON. Bursa saham Eropa dibuka menguat dipicu spekulasi keputusan Federal Reserve (The Fed) yang akan menaikkan suku bunganya bulan depan.

Indeks Stoxx Europe 600 naik 0,8% pukul 08.18 waktu London dan indeks berjangka Amerika Serikat (AS) naik 0,3% sehubungan indeks MSCI Asia Pacific melemah sebesar 0,2%.

Indeks  Bloomberg Dollar Spot memperpanjang kenaikannya, naik 0,2% karena naiknya imbal hasil utang 10 tahun dari Australia ke Jepang.  Harga minyak menguat pada hari kedua, sementara harga tembaga kembali turun.

Para pedagang meningkatkan spekulasi mereka pada kenaikan suku bunga AS September nanti setelah kepala Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart mengatakan bahwa ia hanya akan mendukung penundaannya dan harus ada penurunan yang signifikan dalam data ekonomi.

Rebound minyak stabil pada pasar komoditas, menekan kerugian diantara saham sektor energi dan pertambangan jelang rilisnya data industri jasa dari China, Jepang dan Amerika Serikat

Indeks dolar Bloomberg, yang mmenelusuri  greenback terhadap 10 mata uang utama, naik di hari ketiga ke level tertingginya sejak Maret lalu. Ringgit Malaysia melemah 0,6%, sedangkan won Korea kembali turun, jatuh sebesar 0,7%. Thailand baht turun 0,3% sebelum keputusan suku bunga hari ini yang diproyeksikan untuk menjaga tidak berubahnya  biaya pinjaman acuan.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/bursa-eropa-menguat-dipicu-spekulasi-fed-rate
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

 

BRUSSELS, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) — The eurozone manufacturing sector continued to expand at a solid, steady pace at the start of the third quarter, even as Greek manufacturing activity plunged in July to an all-time low, a survey showed Monday.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a key measure of manufacturing activity in euro zone countries, was 52.4 in July, above the earlier flash estimate of 52.2 and close to June’s 14-month peak, according to Markit, a leading global provider of financial information services.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 represents contraction.

The euro zone manufacturing PMI has remained in expansion territory since July 2013.

The survey showed, growth of output, new orders and employment was registered across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors in the euro zone countries in July.

Rates of improvement were comparatively strong at consumer and investment goods producers, whereas only modest rises were seen in the intermediate goods sector.

Among the 19-member states of the euro zone, the deepest contraction of manufacturing sector registered in Greece due to a three-week bank shutdown.

The Greek PMI reading of 30.2 was substantially worse than its previous record low (37.7 in February 2012). Production, new orders, new export orders, employment and purchasing activity all suffered sharp slumps, dropping at the fastest rates on records since Markit began compiling the data 16 years ago.

“Manufacturing output collapsed in July as the debt crisis came to a head,” Phil Smith, economist at Markit which compiles the Greece manufacturing PMI survey said.

“Although manufacturing represents only a small proportion of Greece’s total productive output, the sheer magnitude of the downturn sends a worrying signal for the health of the economy as a whole,” he added.

However, there was no conclusive evidence from survey respondents of events in Greece directly impacting operating performance elsewhere in the currency union’s manufacturing sector.

The most impressive growth rates are being seen in the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, and the latter being notable in enjoying its strongest growth for over four years in July, according to Markit.

“The eurozone manufacturing economy showed encouraging resilience in the face of the Greek debt crisis in July,” Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said.

“Policymakers will be reassured by the robust growth rates seen in these countries and the resilience of the manufacturing sector as a whole, especially as growth is likely to pick up again now that Greece has jumped its latest hurdle in the ongoing debt crisis,” Williamson said.

Editor: Hou Qiang

 

7:59 AM EST JUL 13, 2015

One of the linchpins of the deal struck Monday morning to prevent Greece’s exit (for now) from the eurozone is a fund that will manage the sale of the country’s state-owned assets. The deal requires that the fund at some point generate €50 billion in cash from the asset sales, to be used for various purposes: half for repaying money borrowed from the eurozone to recapitalize Greek banks; a quarter for investments; and a quarter for reducing the government’s debt burden.

Here are the key details so far:

  • Why’s the fund necessary?

    Germany and its eurozone allies have long complained that Athens hasn’t delivered on pledges to sell these assets as required by its two earlier bailouts, so the fund will provide some assurances there. Since cash from the asset sales will mostly be used to repay debt, the fund comforts Berlin that debts will be repaid.

  • How will it be operated?

    Germany, in a paper circulated over the weekend, proposed the fund and called for it to be located in Luxembourg and run by the Institute for Growth, an entity partly controlled by the German government.

    That would’ve been political poison for Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who will already have a tough time selling Monday’s deal back home. Instead, the eurozone agreed to have the fund located in Greece, managed by the Greek authorities and supervised by “the relevant European institutions.”

  • So what will the fund contain?

    The statement issued by eurozone leaders after marathon negotiations leaves a number of questions unanswered. First, what assets would qualify to go in the fund? The statement merely requires that they be “valuable.” After six years of recession and counting, Greek liquid assets are scarce; presumably hard assets like beautiful Islands and national treasures are off limits.

    One likely source of said assets are the new bank shares that the Greek government will acquire with the money it will borrow from the eurozone’s bailout fund to recapitalize the country’s banks. French President Francois Hollande said as much during his post-summit press conference, arguing this would allow Greece to seed the fund with money it will borrow anyway to recapitalize its banks.

  • How long will Greece have to sell the assets?

    The statement says the assets will be sold over the life of the loans from the eurozone. That’s good news for Greece, since the loans could very well have maturities of 10 years or more.

guardian: Analyst: It’s Merkel 1, Tsipras 0

Demetrios Efstathiou of ICBC Standard Bank says that Greece has been comprehensively routed by Germany in Brussels this weekend:

  • Tsipras had to concede on almost every point.
  • Merkel comes out as a winner, and should be able to get the deal though the German parliament.
  • Germany’s extremely tough position would serve as a warning to other Eurozone nations. There are arguments that she even pushed too far.
  • Varoufakis may have gambled, Tsipras and Syriza may have lost, but Greece may be the ultimate winner – Greece has a golden opportunity to implement in record time the drastic reforms that it desperately needed and which successive governments have been unwilling to commit to.
  • The formation of a national unity or special purpose government to pass the reforms in the tight time-frame is now required. Elections would have to follow at a later stage.
  • The debate will now move on to the reaction of the Greek people. There is no easy answer. Only time will tell. The way I see it is that the Greek people will be relieved to see their banks reopen, their pensions and savings to be still denominated in euros, and the tourist season not destroyed. They should also be celebrating the implementation of structural reforms, but I doubt that.
  • Greece must now push through parliament, by Wednesday, July 15th, a series of legislations that include the streamlining of the VAT system, and pension measures.

guardian: European leaders have confronted the Greek government with a draconian package of austerity measures entailing a surrender of fiscal sovereignty as the price of avoiding financial collapse and being ejected from the single currency bloc.

A weekend of high tension that threatened to break Europe in two climaxed on Sunday night at a summit of eurozone leaders in Brussels where the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and President François Hollande of France presented Greece’s radical prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, with an ultimatum.

In what a senior EU official described as an “exercise in extensive mental waterboarding” to secure Greek acquiescence to talks on a third bailout in five years worth up to €86bn (£62bn), the two leaders pressed for absolute certainty from Tsipras that he would honour what was on offer.
Greeks resigned to a hard, bitter future whatever deal is reached with Europe
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Two days of high-stakes negotiations between the finance ministers of the currency bloc resulted in a four-page document that included controversial German elements leaked on Saturday. Those measures included Greece leaving the euro temporarily by taking a “time-out” from the currency bloc if it refuses terms for talks on the new bailout or, in the event of agreement, that Greece sets aside €50bn worth of assets as collateral for new loans and for eventual privatisation. Both passages, however, did not enjoy a consensus among eurozone leaders.

Under the terms set before Tsipras on Sunday night, the Greek parliament has to endorse the entire package on Monday and then pass several pieces of legislation by Wednesday, including on pensions reform and a new VAT regime, before the eurozone will agree to negotiate a new three-year rescue package.

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The terms are much stiffer than those imposed by the creditors over the past five years. This, said the senior official, was payback for the emphatic no to the creditors’ terms delivered by the snap referendum that Tsipras staged a week ago.

“He was warned a yes vote would get better terms, that a no vote would be much harder,” said the senior official.

The Eurogroup document said experts from the troika of creditors – the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank – would be on the ground in Athens to monitor the proposed bailout programme. The trio would also have a say in all relevant Greek draft legislation before it is presented to parliament. Furthermore, the Greeks will have to amend all legislation already passed by the Syriza government this year that had not been agreed with the creditors.

Live Greece debt crisis: Athens faces ‘temporary Grexit’ if no deal – live updates
Greece is resisting its creditors demands for even more austerity measures and reforms in Brussels tonight, as bailout talks go to the wire
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While Greece’s fate was being debated in Brussels, in Athens the ruling leftwing Syriza party was showing signs of disintegration. Demands that the reforms be approved by the Greek government and put into law by Wednesday were described as “utter blackmail” by leading party members and met with disbelief.

Although sources close to Tsipras said the leader was determined to do whatever was needed to keep Grexit at bay, political tumult also beckoned. Insiders conceded that a cabinet reshuffle – removing ministers who had refused to vote the austerity package through parliament early on Saturday – could come as early as Monday.

By late Sunday night it had become clear that Tsipras’s U-turn on measures he had once spurned had produced a potentially far-reaching split. In addition to 17 MPs breaking ranks at the weekend – stripping his government of a working majority – 15 other lawmakers also indicated they would not approve the agreement in its entirety. The resistance raises the spectre of Tsipras being forced to call fresh elections – a move described as potentially catastrophic for the country.

“Greece can bend up to a point,” said Aristides Hatzis, a prominent political commentator. “But after that there is no bending, only breaking.”

Although billed as the last chance to secure “the ultimate agreement” on the Greek debt crisis, the prospects of a grand political bargain to keep Greece in the eurozone are far from assured.

Entering the leaders’ meeting, Tsipras said he was looking for compromise: “We can reach an agreement if all parties want it.”

But France and Germany are split on their approach to the Greek question, while Finland could refuse outright to sign up to a third bailout for Greece.

France’s Hollande vowed to do everything possible to get an agreement on Sunday night, but Merkel said there wouldn’t be an agreement at any cost.

Other eurozone countries urged Germany to drop its objections. “Grexit has to be prevented,” said Jean Asselborn, the Luxembourg foreign minister. “It would be fateful for Germany’s reputation in the EU and the world.

“Germany’s responsibility is great. It’s about not conjuring up the ghosts of the past,” he told German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. “If Germany goes for Grexit, it will trigger a deep conflict with France. That would be a catastrophe for Europe.”

Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, was expected to tell Merkel at the leaders’ meeting that “enough is enough” and the eurozone should not humiliate Greece when it had already given up so much.

Earlier on Sunday, eurozone finance ministers said they had made some progress after 14 hours of talks over two days and failing to reach any agreement on Saturday. “We have come a long way, solved a lot of issues, but some big issues still remain,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs the Eurogroup of finance ministers.

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, cancelled an emergency full summit of the 28 countries that was to deal with the fallout from Greece’s ejection, in order to give eurozone leaders a last chance to reach an accord saving Greece and forestalling what would be a devastating schism, sowing deep resentment and division between Europe’s leaders.

The intractable problem is that many governments do not trust the Greek government to implement a €12bn (£8.6bn) programme of spending cuts and reforms that will be delivered as part of a bailout. Eurozone governments are seeking proof from Athens it can keep its promises, in exchange for agreeing to start talks on a deal.

“The main obstacle to an agreement is trust,” said Pier Carlo Padoan, finance minister of Italy, one of the countries most sympathetic to Greece.

The Irish taoiseach, Enda Kenny, urged his fellow leaders to “look at the bigger picture”. Kenny, who has been Ireland’s leader since the early days of its own bailout programme, said in his country’s case trust was built incrementally.

“We don’t want to look back in 10 years’ time and think this could have been saved, but wasn’t,” he said.

The German news magazine Der Spiegel called Sunday the biggest day of Merkel’s 10-year chancellorship and appealed to her to “show greatness” and save Europe.

If Der Spiegel was right about the momentousness of Merkel’s day, the same could be said for Hollande of France who, with his government and officials, has been campaigning tirelessly in recent weeks to keep Greece in the euro, helping Athens to draft its proposals.

A decision to go ahead with a so-called Grexit, which has never been closer, would be a shattering failure for Hollande and the resulting Franco-German recrimination would be deeply damaging, say observers.

Athens, July 10, 2015 (AFP)
Greece’s parliament was expected, in the early hours of Saturday, to approve last-ditch government proposals to its eurozone creditors aimed at preventing a dreaded exit from the eurozone.

The reforms proposed by the government have sparked criticism from hardline members of the radical left ruling party Syriza, but most opposition parties have expressed willingness to back them.

A majority of lawmakers from Syriza and other parties earlier on Friday granted their approval in a committee vote. the full plenary session vote is expected to be held early Saturday morning.

“If the current deal comes to pass, it will be a difficult deal,” new Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos warned lawmakers.

But he added that the government wanted parliament’s approval “to strengthen the country’s bargaining position, to achieve better terms in the agreement.”

The latest reform proposals put forward by Athens were cheered by France and Italy on Friday, raising hopes that a last-ditch compromise can be reached to prevent a “Grexit.”

In them Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras concedes ground on major sticking points, including creditors’ demands to overhaul pensions, increase sales taxes, and commit to privatisations.

But the proposed measures limit changes on other thorny issues, including tax breaks for Greece’s islands and cuts to military spending.

– Debt mountain –

Tsipras hopes his new offer will open the door to creditors discussing another round of relief from Greece’s suffocating 320-billion-euro ($350-billion) mountain of debt.

The proposal aims to procure financing “for three years, debt adjustment and a front-loaded investment package of 35 billion euros ($38 billion),” a Greek government source said.

But the Greek leader also risks alienating large numbers of the ruling party’s supporters, who rejected in a national referendum last Sunday a very similar set of proposals put forward by Greece’s creditors.

Some 8,000 people gathered in Athens ahead of the parliamentary vote to protest against carrying on with austerity measures, police said.

In a bid to head off a possible challenge to the measures within his hard-left party Syriza, Tsipras urged his lawmakers “to stand united and firm in front of these important decisions.”

Tsakalotos said Friday he believed “many” of his country’s demands for debt relief will be accepted by eurozone partners whose ministers will meet Saturday.

He notably expressed confidence that Greece will be permitted to roll over a debt of 27 billion euros ($30 billion) in bonds held by the European Central Bank to the European Stability Mechanism, which would push back repayments.

Any new Greek rescue needs to be approved unanimously by eurozone members.

– Euro, markets soar –

French President Francois Hollande said “the Greeks have shown a determination to want to stay in the eurozone because the programme they are presenting is serious and credible.”

However he cautioned that “nothing is decided yet.”

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi declared himself “more optimistic” that a deal would be done.

But Germany, leading a bloc of sceptical eurozone nations, said the outcome of crisis talks this weekend was “completely open.”

Germany leads a bloc of eurozone nations saying that, after two bailouts over the past five years totalling 240 billion euros, and 107 billion euros in debt forgiveness in 2012, Greece is looking like bottomless money pit.

The possibility of a breakthrough sent stock markets soaring in Europe, Asia and the US on Friday.

Meanwhile the euro briefly rose above $1.12 for the first time in July before falling back slightly in later trade, still up at $1.1152

– Tsipras’s gamble –

Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem promised that Eurozone finance ministers will make a ‘major’ decision Saturday on whether to endorse the latest proposals from Athens.

“We have to make a major decision. Whichever way,” Dijsselbloem, who is also the Dutch finance minister, told reporters ahead of a cabinet meeting in The Hague.

“But we have to see whether the proposals will genuinely help pull Greece from the doldrums,” he added, two days ahead of a summit of EU leaders on Sunday.

Parliaments in several EU nations, notably Germany, will also have to vote on whether to accept Greece’s reform plan in exchange for another huge bailout — its third in five years.

Tsipras is taking a political gamble by making any concessions to creditors’ demands.

Hardliners in Syriza and coalition partner the Independent Greeks have obstinately rejected further austerity.

But although Greek voters last Sunday roundly voted “No” to accepting tough austerity terms for a bailout that expired June 30, they are alarmed at capital controls that have closed banks and rationed ATM cash.

They also overwhelmingly want to keep the euro.

“The government has to find a deal with its European partners no matter what. We didn’t vote ‘No’ to leave the eurozone,” said a pensioner in Athens, Nikos Eftekidis.

But another pensioner, Giorgos, said the “government’s proposed measures are very tough, I wasn’t expecting that. That’s not what the Greeks voted for.”

Brussels, July 10, 2015 (AFP)
Greece’s international creditors believe its latest debt proposals are positive enough to be the basis for a new bailout worth 74 billion euros, an EU source said Friday.

“There has been positive evaluation of the Greek programme,” the source said, with the EU’s bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism ready to consider putting up 58 billion euros plus 16 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund for a new debt rescue.

guardian: The Greek government capitulated on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Sunday.
Live Greek crisis: Government submits reform plan in bid for new aid deal – live updates
European council president Donald Tusk has backed calls for Greece’s debt sustainability to be tackled as part of a third bailout

Athens is understood to have put forward a package of reforms and public spending cuts worth €13bn (£9.3bn) to secure a third bailout from creditors that could raise $50bn and allow it to stay inside the currency union.

A cabinet meeting signed off the reform package after ministers agreed that the dire state of the economy and the debilitating closure of the country’s banks meant it had no option but to agree to almost all the creditors terms.

Parliament is expected to endorse the package after a frantic few days of negotiation that followed a landmark referendum last Sunday in which Greek voters backed the radical leftist Syriza government’s call for debt relief.

Syriza, which is in coalition with the rightwing populist Independent party, is expected to meet huge opposition from within its own ranks and from trade unions and youth groups that viewed the referendum as a vote against any austerity.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, the energy minister and influential hard-leftist, who on Wednesday welcomed a deal for a new €2bn gas pipeline from Russia, has ruled out a new tough austerity package.

Lafazanis represents around 70 Syriza MPs who have previously taken a hard line against further austerity measures and could yet wreck any top-level agreement.

Emphasising the likelihood of further strife in Greece next week even should a deal be concluded, Brussels officials talked privately of plans to fly in humanitarian aid such as food parcels and medicines to major cities.
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The urgency of Greek efforts to prevent an exit from the euro came after Brussels set a midnight Thursday deadline for Greece to produce a package of measures in line with previous demands.

With the support of officials from the French finance ministry, Greek negotiators are believed to have accepted the need for VAT rises and rules blocking early retirement as the price of a deal.

Several EU leaders said the troika of creditors – the European commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank – must also make concessions to secure Greece’s future inside the eurozone.

Donald Tusk, who chairs the EU summits, said European officials would make an effort to address Greece’s key request for a debt write-off.

“The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors. Only then will we have a win-win situation,” Tusk said.

Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland, aligned himself with France and Italy in seeking a way through the political maze that has defeated all previous efforts to find a breakthrough.

Sources close to Greece’s chief negotiator and finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, said he had finalised and submitted a plan of reforms for a third bailout to give creditors time to review it ahead of a summit of EU members on Sunday.

On Thursday, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble said the possibility of some kind of debt relief would be discussed over coming days, although he cautioned it may not provide much help.

“The room for manoeuvre through debt reprofiling or restructuring is very small,” he said.

Greece has long argued its debt is too high to be paid back and that the country requires some form of debt relief. The IMF agrees, but key European states such as Germany have resisted the idea.

Making Greece’s debt more sustainable would likely involve lowering the interest rates and extending the repayment dates on its bailout loans. Germany and many other European countries rule out an outright debt cut, arguing it would be illegal under European treaties.

The developments on Thursday boosted market confidence that a compromise will be found. The Stoxx 50 index of top European shares was up 2.4% in late afternoon trading.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with finance ministry officials ahead of the cabinet meeting on Thursday afternoon which finalised his country’s plan, a day after his government requested a new three-year aid programme from Europe’s bailout fund and promised to immediately enact reforms.

The last-minute negotiations come as Greece’s financial system teeters on the brink of collapse. It has imposed restrictions on banking transactions since 29 June, limiting cash withdrawals to €60 per day to staunch a bank run. Banks and the stock market have been shut for just as long.

The closures, which have been extended until Monday, have led to daily lines at cash machines and have hammered businesses. Payments abroad have been banned without special permission.

Greece’s financial institutions have been kept afloat so far by emergency liquidity assistance from the ECB. But the central bank has not increased the amount in days, giving the lenders a stranglehold despite capital controls.

German ECB governing council member Jens Weidmann argued Greek banks should not get more emergency credit from the central bank unless a bailout deal is struck.
He said it was up to eurozone governments and Greek leaders themselves to rescue Greece.

The central bank “has no mandate to safeguard the solvency of banks and governments,” he said in a speech.

The ECB capped emergency credit to Greek banks amid doubt over whether the country will win further rescue loans from other countries. The banks closed and limited cash withdrawals because they had no other way to replace deposits.

Weidmann said he welcomed the fact that central bank credit “is no longer being used to finance capital flight caused by the Greek government”.

 

Tsipras Asking Grandma to Figure Out If Greek Debt Deal Is Fair
by Matthew CampbellJenny Paris
June 28, 2015 — 7:02 AM WIB
bloomberg business
Economists with PhDs and hedge-fund traders can barely stay on top of the vagaries of Greece’s spiraling debt crisis. Now, try getting grandma to vote on it.
That’s what Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is doing by calling a snap referendum for July 5 on the latest bailout package from creditors. The 68-word ballot question namechecks four international institutions and asks voters for their opinion on two highly technical documents that weren’t made public before the referendum call and were only translated into Greek on Saturday.
Worse, they may no longer be on the table. International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde told the BBC late on Saturday that “legally speaking, the referendum will relate to proposals and arrangements which are no longer valid.”
Tsipras’s decision means everyone from fishermen to taxi-drivers and factory workers will have to form an opinion on the package, with their country’s economic future hanging in the balance. A rejection of the bailout terms could lead to an exit from the euro area and economic calamity; accepting them would probably keep Greece in the euro, but with more austerity.
“Usually in democracies, it’s the technocrats and the politicians who take care of the details, while voters are asked about broader issues and principles,” said Philip Shaw, the chief economist in London at asset manager Investec. “This is a transfer of responsibility from parliament to the voters.”
Tsipras’s surprise referendum came as lawmakers in his left-wing Syriza party voiced opposition to the bailout proposals and threatened to vote against them in parliament, potentially eroding his grip on power. Tsipras has said the proposals will add “unbearable weight” to Greece’s troubles.
Opinion polls show a majority of Greeks support retaining the euro, although further tax increases and spending cuts have few supporters in a country with 25 percent unemployment that’s seen its economy contract by a quarter since 2010.
The Question
Greece’s referendum question will read as follows:
“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on on June 25 and which consists of two documents:
‘‘The first document is called Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond and the second document is called Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.
‘‘- Those citizens who reject the institutions’ proposal vote Not Approved / NO
‘‘- Those citizens who accept the institutions’ proposal vote Approved / YES.’’
The two documents reflect the complexity of Greece’s financial predicament. The first includes sections on ‘‘parametric budgetary measures’’ and ‘‘unified wage grid reform.’’ The second has a discussion of the methodological advantages of using ‘‘gross annual financing needs’’ to assess Greece’s debt burden, rather than the more traditional debt-to-GDP ratio.
Heavy Responsibility
‘‘What the government couldn’t decide on after five months of talks, the Greek people will have to decide in five days,’’ Antigone Limberaki, a lawmaker with small centrist party To Potami and an economics professor, said during a parliamentary debate on the referendum.
There have been almost no referendums on international bailouts of a country in financial crisis. Greece came close to one in 2011, when then-Prime Minister George Papandreou proposed and then canceled a plebiscite on a debt deal.
Before that, the last time Greeks went to the polls to decide a single question was in 1974, when they voted to retire their monarchy in favor of a presidential republic.
Some Greeks are concerned that the most important question isn’t even on the ballot this time.
Euro Exit
‘‘People will vote based on whether they want the harsh measures or not, they may not realize that they’re actually voting on whether to stay in the euro,” said Erato Spyropoulou, who waited in line at a National Bank of Greece AG cash machine in Athens to withdraw money on Saturday morning. “I don’t want the harsh measures either. I’m in debt, but I don’t want to leave Europe.”
Investors are fretting about the same thing.
The ballot question “is dangerous in as much as it doesn’t link the consequences to the question, i.e. potential [euro] exit,” Josh O’Byrne, a strategist at Citigroup in London, wrote in a note to clients.
Eurogroup finance ministers have almost universally condemned the referendum plan, which Tsipras announced late Friday night without warning Greece’s creditors.
Added Wrinkle
It leaves a broad range of questions for them and for the European Central Bank, which is providing emergency funds to keep Greek banks afloat.
There’s another potential wrinkle in the ballot question. It’s based on the state of play as of late this week, and thus on proposals that may no longer be on offer after Greece’s bailout expires on Tuesday and if Greece misses a payment to the IMF due on the same day.
Given the lead time for printing and distributing ballot papers in a country of 10 million residents spread over 227 inhabited islands, that means

voters could be asked their opinion on proposals that aren’t even still on the table when they enter the voting booth.

 

European finance chiefs shelved efforts to rescue Greece, turning their focus to containing fallout from a looming financial collapse as Greek savers lined up at local banks and ATMs to pull out as many euros as they could.
Meeting in Brussels Saturday evening after rejecting Greece’s request to extend its aid program beyond June 30, the ministers urged the cash-strapped nation to protect its lenders. The European Central Bank, which has kept the nation afloat, is set to discuss Sunday whether to pull the plug on its emergency lending, leaving the country with no backstop.
“Monday could be a bank holiday” in Greece, Ireland’s Michael Noonan told reporters. “It’s not a question of waiting to see what might happen on Monday in terms of crisis. The crisis has commenced.”
The breakdown after a week of nonstop talks followed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s stunning call overnight for a July 5 referendum on spending cuts that he has steadfastly rejected. Recriminations were replaced by wistfulness among the policy makers as the prospect of Greece’s exit from the euro after more than five years of crisis-fighting drew closer.
“Plan B is fast unraveling and becoming Plan A,” said Finland’s Alexander Stubb. The upshot is “potentially a very sad day.”
Sadness, Bafflement
“Sad day for Europe,” Greece’s Yanis Varoufakis said as he left his 18 counterparts to discuss damage control.
Around Greece, lines formed outside ATMs in an accelerating bank run that may require capital controls to husband the lenders’ dwindling resources.
Tsipras urged voters to reject the terms of the bailout. The Parliament in Athens is scheduled to vote at about midnight to ratify the ballot.
Public opinion is at odds with Tsipras’s hard line, according to a survey published Saturday. Two-thirds say Greece should remain in euro area and 57.5 percent say the government should back down to reach a deal with creditors, the Kapa Research poll for To Vima newspaper showed.
Dijsselbloem told reporters in Brussels that Varoufakis had requested a one-month extension. With “no comprehensive package agreed” to by ministers, Dijsselbloem said the Greek government faces the expiry of its aid program on Tuesday night without any future financing in place.
‘Acute Difficulties’
In the coming days, “Greece will experience acute difficulties,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters in a briefing that ended with him shrugging his shoulders.
Even if that happens, the other 18 euro countries are in a better position to contain the damage than when the crisis initially spread from Greece in 2011 and 2012, several ministers said.
Varoufakis said that his government rejected the latest offer by creditors — the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund — to unlock aid in return for more fiscal austerity because the package gave no hope that Greece would emerge from the economic crisis.
He said the measures, ranging from cuts in pensions to wage curbs, have been “quite clear failures” since Greece first sought aid in 2010, leading to twin bailouts worth 240 billion euros ($268 billion). Still, Varoufakis said, it’s possible that a majority of Greeks will vote in the referendum to accept the creditors’ plan.
Bundesbank Support
Adding further pressure on Greece is a payment to the IMF of about 1.5 billion euros due on June 30.
The ECB has increased Emergency Liquidity Assistance in weekly and sometimes daily increments to the Greek central bank to funnel to the country’s lenders amid a slow-motion bank run. The total stood at almost 89 billion euros as of Friday. That’s up from less than 60 billion euros in February, when the ECB cut Greek banks off from normal refinancing because of the newly elected government’s opposition to reforms linked to the country’s bailout.
While any decision to rein in ELA requires a two-thirds majority in the 25-member Governing Council, that may not be hard to achieve should ECB chief Mario Draghi back it. He would already have weighty support from Germany’s Jens Weidmann. The Bundesbank president said on Thursday that ELA for Greece raises “serious” concerns over monetary financing of governments, which is illegal under European Union law, as Greek banks regularly roll over about 9 billion euros of short-term government debt.

Usulan Kreditor Utang Yunani

Tsipras, Merkel and Hollande meet on European Summit sidelines

The negotiations between Greece and its creditors will resume after the conclusion of the Summit on Friday

Friday, June 26, 2015

A meeting on the sidelines of the European Summit between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, has concluded. The three leaders, who arranged late on Thursday evening according to the Athens-Macedonia News Agency, met at the offices of the French delegation at the Council of the European Union and did not make any comments on arrival.

Reuters has reported that the three European leaders discussed the possibility of extending the current Greek bailout program, while expires at the end of July. Furthermore, the report claims that the Greek Prime Minister questioned the persistence of the creditors on such harsh measures.

According to Greek government official who spoke to Reuters, the negotiations between the Greek government and the institutions are set to continue after the conclusion of the European Summit on Friday and ahead of Saturday’s Eurogroup. The Eurogroup in Brussels on Saturday is scheduled for 5pm local time (6pm in Greece).

Meanwhile, the Slovak Finance Minister Peter Kazimir expressed his frustration over the ongoing negotiations for Greece and noted that although a deadline has been set for Saturday, he expected the talks to carry on until Sunday. Similarly, the president of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem claimed that while an agreement with Greece was still possible, it required a stronger reform package.

The Italian and Lithuanian Prime Ministers, Matteo Renzi and Algirdas Butkevičius, both appeared optimistic of an agreement being reached. Mr. Renzi argued that he as certain of an agreement on Saturday.

Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann was more reserved in his estimations and noted that while there was optimism for an agreement, he explained that there were “four to five” different view points on Greece and that the talks regarding Greece in the first day of the Summit was not extensive. As such there was no clear view as to what would occur if an agreement was not reached.

The spokesperson for the German Ministry of Finances Martin Jäger commented that Greece’s international creditors have made compromises in the talks so far and that it was now time for Greece to make a move and accept, what he dubbed, a “very generous” offer.

 

The neverending story

Greece and its creditors are halfway to reaching a deal. It sometimes seems they always will be

“GREXHAUSTION” was the coinage of choice for one Greek television anchor Thursday night, as euro-zone finance ministers failed for the third time in four days to find a breakthrough in their talks over Greece’s bail-out. Throughout the week proposals and counter-proposals have bounced back and forth between Greece and its creditor institutions, slowly narrowing the differences over issues like pensions and VAT rates. But four days before its twice-extended bail-out expires and a €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion) payment to the IMF falls due, Greece and its far-left prime minister, Alexis Tsipras (pictured at left with Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor) still have no deal.

There is still time. The finance ministers plan to meet again on Saturday in Brussels, hoping that technical discussions will find accord on the outstanding issues and produce a paper they can sign. If a deal is struck it could be approved by Greece’s parliament on Sunday, and by Germany’s Bundestag and other creditor legislatures on Monday. That in turn could unlock €1.8 billion in profits from an old Greek bond-buying programme currently sitting in euro-zone central banks, enabling Greece to pay the IMF on time. Further bail-out funds would be disbursed in the following weeks, keeping Greece afloat over the summer through a series of redemptions, including a total of €6.7 billion owed to the European Central Bank. According to a document obtained by the Wall Street Journal, the aim would be to extend Greece’s bail-out for the third time, this time until November.

That is, just about, a plausible story. But the wheels may yet come off. The outstanding differences between Greece and its creditors may look small, including whether the VAT rate for hotels should be 13% or 23%, and whether a “solidarity grant” for pensioners should be eliminated by 2018 or 2019. But they mask a mood of extreme resentment on both sides. The Greeks thought a proposal they sent last Monday was a huge gesture towards the institutions. Indeed, the intial reception was warm, and markets lifted on the assumption a deal was imminent. But the mood quickly slumped when the IMF said the Greek plan relied too heavily on tax rises and did not cut pensions enough. Some Greeks have taken to conspiratorial murmurs that the secret plan of the creditors is to force an unacceptable deal on Mr Tsipras, in the hope that his government falls. “The Greek side has bent over backwards to accommodate some rather strange demands by the institutions,” said Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, this morning.

Complicating matters further, the creditor side is split. Several euro-zone finance ministers, including Wolfgang Schäuble, the flinty German, complained at yesterday’s meeting that the “troika” of institutions negotiating with the Greeks—the ECB, IMF and European Commission—had been too lenient on them. The IMF has been the toughest on the Greeks over reforms, but shares with Athens the view that a restructuring of its vast debts, worth nearly 180% of GDP, is necessary. The Germans disagree, at least on the sequencing (they want reforms and cuts now; restructuring later, if at all), but do not want to disburse bail-out funds before the IMF does. All of these complexities must be smoothed out, or at least papered over, before Greece can be saved.

And if it is saved, what then? The deal on the table, short on reforms to Greece’s broken public administration and long on austerity measures, will do little to lift Greece out of the recession into which it has again slumped. It will be signed in a mood of bitterness rather than co-operation. It will not involve the debt relief the Greeks so desperately seek, and will be seen domestically as yet another diktat from outside. Greece has struggled to implement every agreement since its first bail-out five years ago. A radical-left government bullied into yet more austerity is hardly likely to have more luck with this one.

Moreover, discussions have not even begun on what to do with Greece once it needs more funding. The scale of the disagreements over Greece’s second bail-out have concealed the puniness of the sums in question: just €7.2 billion remains in the kitty. With Greece priced out of capital markets and still running deficits it will need more help; few dispute a third bail-out will be needed, probably in the autumn. That will involve more debate, more conditions, more parliamentary ratifications, and almost certainly more nail-biting summitry.

 

What happens if there is no deal? Greece will miss its IMF payment, but that will not trigger immediate meltdown: credit-rating agencies have said they would not consider Greece in default, and its other creditors, including the ECB and the EFSF (the euro zone’s bail-out fund), would probably follow suit. Failure to find an agreement, though, would probably accelerate further the deposit outflows from Greece’s tottering banks. The ECB, which has been keeping them alive by drip-feeding emergency liquidity assistance, would come under immense pressure to limit its support if Greece finds itself outside of a bail-out for the first time since 2010. Yesterday one of the more hawkish members of the bank’s governing council, Jens Weidmann, said that the liquidity support threatened to violate the ECB’s ban on monetary financing of a government. A cap on ELA would surely trigger capital controls on Greece’s banks.

The question is whether Mr Tsipras, who was elected in January on a promise to tear up Greece’s bail-out programme, would consider this dangerous path preferable to capitulation to the creditors. Many in his own party, fed up with what they consider the bullying tactics of the institutions, are calling for resistance. But others fear that failure to surrender would mark the first step towards a departure from the euro. Mr Tsipras had long hoped to prove that Greece did not have to choose between the path of the creditors and the road that may lead to Grexit. It is now clear that he must.

JAKARTA – Deputi Gubernur Senior Bank Indonesia (BI) Mirza Adityaswara mengatakan, kondisi Yunani di pasar keuangan tahun ini, berbeda dengan 2011 lalu. Hal tersebut, lantaran perbankan Eropa yang memiliki tekanan lebih besar kepada Yunani, dibandingkan kini.

“Pada waktu 2011 dan 2015 perbankan Eropa yang punya eksposure di Yunani besar sekali, Kalau sekarang itu yang sudah hampir tidak ada dampak ke institusi keuangan di Eropa tidak besar,” tutur Mirza di Gedung BI, Jakarta, Jumat (26/6/2015).

Lebih lanjut dia menjelaskan, permasalahan Yunani yang tidak berujung pada penyelesaian berpotensi untuk membuat pasar Yunani bergejolak. Dikarenakan anggaran pemerintahan yang minim, menyebabkan kekurangan likuiditas.

“Tetapi dampak kepada Yunani sendiri jika memang tidak terjadi deal pasar dia akan terus bergejolak tidak dapat likuiditas. Karena anggaran pemerintah tidak cukup, perbankan juga alami situasi kekurangan likuiditas,” pungkasnya.

Sekedar informasi, Pemerintahan Yunani harus membayar sejumlah utang jatuh temponya pada akhir Juni ini kepada International Monetary Fund (IMF). Yunani memerlukan utang baru untuk bisa membayar utang dari IMF tersebut.

Adapun utang Yunani kepada IMF yang jatuh tempo akhir Juni ini mencapai USD1,8 miliar.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/06/26/457/1171991/bi-kondisi-keuangan-yunani-berbeda-dengan-2011
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

 

Brussels, June 25, 2015 (AFP)
EU President Donald Tusk said Thursday he felt that talks to reach a deal on Greece’s debt crisis with its creditors would end soon with a positive outcome.

“For now, I can only say, that work is underway and for sure it will need still many hours,” Tusk said as he arrived for a two-day EU leaders summit in Brussels.

“The last hours have been critical but I have a good hunch that unlike in Sophocles’ tragedies this Greek story will have a happy end,” he added.

Also arriving for the talks, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said the last stretch of a negotiation was always the hardest.

“I want to have faith, but I know the situation is fragile, difficult,” Michel said.

“I continue to hope that it will be possible to seize an agreement in the coming hours and if we don’t make it, we must work in the coming days and certainly this weekend,” Michel said.

The EU summit is taking place while a high-stakes eurozone finance ministers meeting on Greece is being held in a building next door.

The leaders’ talks will deal primarily with the Mediterranean migrant crisis and plans by Britain to hold a vote on remaining in the European Union.

the economist: The Greek bail­out negotiations The new sticking points Jun 24th 2015, 18:48 by P.W. | LONDON MARKETS breathed a sigh of relief on Monday when European leaders were broadly positive about the latest set of proposals from the Greek government. But today the talks are once again in trouble. The creditors, represented by the European Commission and the IMF, have tabled counter­proposals and Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has already rejected them. Tempers are rising again on both sides. So is a compromise now possible? One battle is over the balance of spending cuts and tax rises. The Greek government dominated by the radical ­left Syriza party has been unsurprisingly reluctant to cut public expenditure. Its measures to meet a primary budget surplus (ie, before interest payments) of 1% of GDP (€1.8 billion) this year and 2% of GDP next year rely almost exclusively on tax rises. The corporate income tax rate would rise from 26% to 29% in 2016.

Pension contribution rates in the main private scheme would increase by 3.9 percentage points, reversing a previous cut and raising €350m this year and €800m in 2016.

Moreover the Greek plan envisages a one­off 12% tax on corporate profits (above €500,000), raising almost €1 billion this year and €400m in 2016.

However, the creditors want a smaller increase in the corporate ­income tax rate, from 26% to 28%. More important, they rule out the one­off corporate­profit tax and the rise in pension contribution rates, slicing through half the revenue gains of 2.7 billion this year, or 1.5% of GDP, anticipated in the Greek plan. Their rejection makes economic sense since the levies would add to the pressures already facing companies as the Greek economy has deteriorated this year, particularly those firms owed money by the 6/25/2015 The Greek bail­out negotiations: The new sticking points | The Economist http://www.economist.com/node/21656123/print 2/2 state, which has stopped paying commercial contractors. But a budgetary package relying more heavily on spending cuts is much harder for Mr Tsipras to sell politically to Syriza and its radical firebrands. Instead of the business­unfriendly tax rises favoured by the Greek government, the creditors want a package that relies more heavily on higher revenue from VAT and thus from consumers (including tourists). In particular they want to raise 1% of GDP in 2016 in higher VAT whereas Mr Tsipras has an objective of 0.75%. Among other things the creditors want to tax restaurant meals at 23% rather than 13%, a lower rate introduced two years ago by the previous government led by Antonis Samaras. The creditors also want steeper cuts on military outlays, of €400m next year rather than €200m. That would present a different difficulty for Mr Tsipras because of his decision to go into coalition with the Independent Greeks, a right­of­centre party, led by Panos Kammenos. Bigger cuts in military spending might be hard for Mr Kammenos, the defence minister, to stomach.

But the biggest sticking point remains pension savings. Rather than securing them by increasing contributions, the creditors want to cut spending. Their main goal is an immediate clampdown on early retirement. Although the statutory retirement age was raised in 2013 to 67 for both men and women (with a minimum age of 62 for those with 40 years’ contributions), older workers have largely been shielded from this change, enabling them to retire early on still favourable terms. The creditors want to impose penalties for early retirement and to phase out the exemptions of older workers by 2022 (rather than 2025 as suggested by Mr Tsipras). They also want the clampdown on early retirement to start immediately rather than in January 2016, as suggested by the Greeks, since this would simply prompt a rush to the exits over the next six months. They also want to raise the contributions paid by pensioners for health care from 4% to 6% rather than to 5% as set out in the Greek plan. And they want to phase out the minimum­income top­up payment by the end of 2017 rather than by 2020 (though in their earlier proposals the creditors sought to achieve this by the end of next year). On the face of it, there remains a worryingly big gap between the two sets of proposals. What appeared to have changed at the start of the week was a political desire to reach a deal. Whether that commitment on both sides will prevail now appears even more crucial than before. With leaders once again converging on Brussels for the meeting of the European Council that starts tomorrow, the hope is that this may provide another opportunity for a deal finally to be struck. Since the current bail­out agreement expires at the end of June, time is short. Maybe it will concentrate minds. Maybe.

 

Brussels, June 24, 2015 (AFP)
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will continue marathon talks with creditors in Brussels Thursday to thrash out a debt deal to save Athens from default, despite having lashed out at lenders for rejecting his reform plans.

Tsipras held a two-hour late-night meeting with the heads of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, Greece’s main bailout monitors, officials said, after seven hours of discussions earlier Wednesday failed to produce a breakthrough.

The parties agreed to resume the talks at 0700 GMT Thursday morning in hopes of finalising a deal in time to present it at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers later in the day.

The 19 ministers from the single currency bloc halted their own talks on releasing further financial aid on Wednesday, saying they did not have enough information to work through the night as planned and that they would start again at 1100 GMT on Thursday.

Time is running out, with Athens needing the extra bailout cash to avoid defaulting on a huge International Monetary Fund payment on June 30, which could send it crashing out of the eurozone with potentially seismic effects for the world economy.

A European source told AFP there was “hope of an agreement between the (creditor) institutions and Greek authorities” from the talks between Tsipras and the EU-IMF.

“We have not reached agreement yet, but we are determined to continue our work towards doing what is necessary,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers from the 19-country currency union, told reporters after the talks broke up after around one hour.

The Eurogroup talks, the third in less than a week, aim to approve a deal that can then be rubber stamped by national leaders who are meeting at a summit of the 28-state European Union on Thursday and Friday.

– ‘Strange position’ –

Eurozone stock markets fell at close, weighed down by renewed concerns about a deal, with Frankfurt dropping 0.62 percent, Paris sliding 0.24 percent, Madrid 0.82 percent lower, Milan down 0.16 percent and Greece losing 1.77 percent.

Anti-austerity leader Tsipras had flown to Brussels early Wednesday for a crunch meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, IMF chief Christine Lagarde and European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi.

But Athens rejected what it said were fresh demands from its creditors on top of a reform plan that it submitted last week to end a five-month standoff that started with Tsipras’s election in January.

“This strange position maybe hides two things: either they do not want an agreement or they are serving specific interests in Greece,” Tsipras said as he went into the talks.

Tsipras has vowed to end five years of austerity imposed under two bailouts worth 240 billion euros, and has resisted demands by creditors for spending cuts and pension reforms.

But the European-IMF lenders have refused to unlock the last 7.2 billion euros ($8.1 billion) of Greece’s bailout before it expires on June 30, which Greece needs to pay a 1.5-billion-euro IMF loan repayment on the same day.

EU President Donald Tusk warned last week of the risk of a “chaotic uncontrollable Grexident” — Greece crashing out of the euro and perhaps also the EU, which it joined in 1981.

– ECB cash injection –

The new plans submitted Sunday by Greece aim to raise eight billion euros, mostly through new taxes on the wealthy and businesses, VAT increases and a cut in defence spending.

But in counter-proposals handed to Greece on Tuesday, creditors are calling for early retirement to be abolished and an increase in the retirement age from 62 to 67 by 2022, not 2025.

They are sticking to demands for a 23 percent value-added tax rate for restaurants, instead of the current 13 percent. Athens is fearful of the consequences to its valuable tourism sector.

Creditors also propose to increase corporation tax to 28 percent from the current 26 percent, instead of the Greek plan to raise it to 29 percent from 2016 onwards.

And they want defence expenditure to be slashed by 400 million euros instead of the proposed 200 million euros.

As the crisis rages, Greece’s banking system has been kept afloat by cash injections from the ECB as wary Greeks withdraw their deposits, and on Wednesday it increased for the fifth time in eight days emergency liquidity funds.

The Greek government meanwhile warned that any accord would have to be approved by a parliamentary majority before June 30, which risks splitting Tsipras’s Syriza party, where many on the left wing view him as reneging on campaign promises.

Any Greek agreement will also need to deal with what comes next, with EU officials suggesting an extension of the bailout until the end of the year, followed by a possible third aid package to keep Greece afloat.

The two huge bailouts since the Greek crisis erupted in 2010 have left it with debt totalling nearly 180 percent of its annual economic output.

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Frankfurt, June 24, 2015 (AFP)
German business confidence fell to its lowest level in four months in June as the outlook for Europe’s biggest economy clouds over, the Ifo economic institute said on Wednesday.

The Ifo institute’s closely watched business climate index fell to 107.4 points in June from 108.5 points in May, the think tank said in a statement. That is the lowest level since February.

It was the second month in a row that the index has fallen and analysts had been expecting a much shallower decline.

“The outlook for the German economy is overcast,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn.

“The indicator for the current business situation declined this month following three successive increases. Business expectations deteriorated for the third consecutive month and are now only slightly optimistic,” he said.

Ifo calculates its headline index on the basis of companies’ assessments of the current business environment and the outlook for the next six months.

The sub-index measuring current business fell to 113.1 points, while the outlook sub-index slipped by one whole point to 102.0 points, the institute said.

 

Luxembourg, June 18, 2015 (AFP)
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned Greece Thursday it would get no leeway on a huge debt payment as EU ministers warned they were looking at a “plan B” for a possible default.

Eurozone finance ministers holding a crisis meeting in Luxembourg pressed Athens to finally present a credible reform plan and end the five-month standoff between Greece’s anti-austerity government and its creditors.

But with Athens owing a 1.6-billion-euro payment to the IMF at the end of June and Greece’s international bailout due to expire the same day, they were pessimistic about the chances of a deal on Thursday.

“There will be no period of grace” for the loan payment, Lagarde told reporters before she joined the ministers for their Eurogroup meeting. “I have a term of June 30 — if it’s not paid by July 1, it’s not paid.”

Greece’s creditors are withholding the last 7.2 billion euros of its bailout until Athens caves in, but leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has refused to make changes to pensions and VAT rates.

Europe’s most powerful leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, weighed in on the issue earlier Thursday when she told German lawmakers in the Bundestag she was “still confident” that a deal was possible.

– ‘Not a lot of hope’ –

But the mood was darker in an overcast Luxembourg, where ministers were openly broaching scenarios such as a Greek exit from the euro if it defaults on its debts.

“The next step to make the deal credible, also financially sustainable, will have to come from the Greek side,” the Dutch Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters.

He added that he did “not have a lot of hope” that the Greeks would present a new plan Thursday.

No deal at the Eurogroup meeting means the issue will likely go to the wire at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on June 25 and 26.

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, the motorbike-riding former economist whose relations with his counterparts have been strained, said he wanted to “replace costly discord with effective consensus.”

“Today we are going to be presenting the Greek government ideas,” he added, without specifying whether he meant a new reform plan.

Without the bailout tranche and the IMF deadline missed, Greece would be for the first time in five years financially alone, with its coffers empty and all eyes on what happens next.

“The other option is to prepare the B plan,” said Irish finance minister Michael Noonan, adding that he didn’t fear any “contagion effect” in the case of a “Grexit” — meaning Greece crashing out of th euro.

Finnish Finance Minister Alex Stubb added: “Option number 1 is extension …. Option B could be default.”

The IMF has taken a harder line than its co-bailout monitors the European Commission and European Central Bank, pushing for Europe to write off some Greek debts.

Greece had already bought itself time by bundling four looming IMF loan payments into one lump sum to be paid by June 30 — becoming the first country to use such a possibility since Zambia in the 1980s — and it is losing patience.

– No Waterloo –

The coincidence that the Eurogroup was meeting on the 200th anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo led EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici to draw a comparison between then and now.

“I certainly don’t want this to be a ‘Battle of Waterloo’ with the whole of Europe against one state,” he said.

Greece’s central bank warned for the first time Wednesday that the country could suffer a “painful” exit from the single currency area — and even the European Union — if it fails to reach a deal.

Greece has another 6.7 billion euros due to the European Central Bank in July and August and there have been reports of planning for possible capital controls if Greece’s financial system runs dry.

European officials warned that the IMF’s zero-tolerance on July 1 could also force the European Central Bank to cut-off vital financing to Greece’s creaking banks.

Elected in January on a vow to end five years of bailout-imposed austerity, Tsipras warned Wednesday that an EU “fixation” with pension cuts would scupper a deal and harm Europe as a whole.

In a move that seemed calculated to irk other European leaders amid tensions with Russia over Ukraine, Tsipras visited Saint Petersburg Thursday where he will be the star guest at President Vladimir Putin’s investment drive forum.

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Frankfurt, June 18, 2015 (AFP)
The euro will not fall if Greece quits the single currency area, German central bank chief Jens Weidmann said in a newspaper interview published on Thursday.

“The continued existence of the euro is not tied to the development in Greece. But certain contagion effects cannot be ruled out because the character of monetary union would be altered by a ‘Grexit’,” Bundesbank president Weidmann told French daily Les Echos.

The interview was also published in the Spanish and Italian dailies El Mundo and La Stampa.

A so-called Grexit would be an exit by Greece from the euro area.

“The character of monetary union would also change if individual countries do not fulfil their responsibilities for a stable currency and turn monetary union into a transfer union which their populations never voted for,” Weidmann continued.

“That is also a contagion effect, the negative consequences of which should not be underestimated.”

He insisted that “the responsibility over whether Greece stays in the eurozone lies with the Greek government.”

“The last few days have shown that there isn’t much time left to reach an agreement,” Weidmann continued.

Eurozone finance ministers were set to hold crunch talks over Greece in Luxembourg Thursday, after a barrage of warnings that the country risks a damaging exit from the EU if it fails to strike a deal with its creditors.

As negotiations between Athens, the EU, ECB and IMF over the last 7.2 billion euro ($8.1 billion) tranche of Greece’s massive international bailout grew increasingly acrimonious this week, officials started openly discussing the prospect of Greece crashing out of the euro.

“The ball is definitely in the court of the Greek government in which direction they want to take their country,” Weidmann said.

“Despite the risks from a state default and possible contagion effects, we have to ensure that the foundations of monetary union as a stability union are not undermined. Aid and solidarity are part of that, but agreements must be adhered to,” he said.

“A revocation of the agreements and a halting of repayments to the partners who have provided aid, or to the European Central Bank, would certainly have consequences for Greece which would be difficult to keep under control,” Weidmann warned.

 

Tokyo, June 10, 2015 (AFP)
The euro strengthened Wednesday as investors bet Greece is nearing a bailout deal with its international creditors that would avoid a default and possible eurozone exit.

The 19-nation currency rose to $1.1297 and 140.51 yen in Tokyo trade from $1.1280 and 140.23 yen in New York.

Cash-strapped Athens submitted new proposals Tuesday to end a standoff with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund before the latest rescue package expires at the end of June.

The EU’s top official for the euro said Greece and the creditors could be just days from reaching a bailout deal as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras warned that failure could sink the eurozone.

The creditors have demanded tough reforms in exchange for giving Athens the final 7.2 billion euros ($8.1 billion) of its bailout funds.

“I would say that reaching the agreement within coming days is possible,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU vice president for the euro, told reporters.

Failure to reach a deal so far has sparked concerns that Greece could default on its debt and likely tumble out of the eurozone, roiling global markets.

In other trading, the dollar was changing hands at 124.53 yen, little changed from 124.31 yen in New York Tuesday.

Expectations that the US central bank will start raising interest rates before the year’s end — a plus for the dollar — were amplified on Tuesday after the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report showed a surge in job vacancies.

Separately, a small business survey showed businesses were hiring more people and paying them more.

“The dollar is undergoing an adjustment to its strength right now as solid fundamentals are countered by worries about the negative side of the strong dollar,” said Masato Yanagiya, head of foreign exchange and money trading at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking.

But “with firm data supporting the view for a September rate hike, it’s difficult to stop the appreciation of the dollar,” he told Bloomberg News.

 

Lisbon, June 10, 2015 (AFP)
As Greece teeters on the brink of possible default, another bailed-out eurozone nation, Portugal, is showing off its relative economic health seeking to set itself apart from the Greek crisis.

Lisbon has said it intends to pay back this month some two billion euros ($2.2 billion) it owes the International Monetary Fund, which comes after it repaid 6.6 billion euros — around a quarter of its debt to the global lender — early.

On the other hand the Greeks have bundled a series of debt payments to the IMF, totalling some 1.6 billion euros, pushing back the deadline to June 30, which has spurred concerns it could be heading toward a messy exit from the eurozone.

Portugal’s centre-right government has made no secret of the differences between it and the radical left party Syriza which is leading Greece.

“One just has to compare (Portugal) with another country in Europe unfortunately close to us that instead of making IMF payments early is postponing them,” Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque said recently.

“The EU rules apply to everyone. The Greeks have to agree to abide by them,” she added.

– ‘Among the weak links’ –

The stakes could not be higher because some economists are concerned that the precedent of a country leaving Europe’s single currency might come back to haunt the eurozone as other countries facing difficulties might feel the heat in the markets.

“Portugal is doing much better than Greece, but despite the progress the country remains among the weak links. Its public debt is one of the highest in the eurozone,” BPI bank economist Paula Carvalho told AFP.

Despite the austerity cure it underwent after being bailed out in 2011, Portugal’s debt increased further last year, reaching 130 percent of GDP — though still below that of Greece’s debt which stands at 175 percent.

But due to the Greek crisis, “Portugal’s borrowing rates have started to rise, and we have witnessed a beginning of a panic in the markets,” said Pedro Lino, manager of financial company Dif Broker.

In his view Italy and Spain are also among the vulnerable countries.

The interest rate on Portugal’s 10-year bonds, a measure of investor confidence, stood at 2.933 percent on Tuesday, after hitting a record low of 1.56 percent in March.

Portugal’s financial future was in much worse trouble in 2011 when, on the brink of default, it received a 78-billion-euro international bailout.

The nation of about 10 million people emerged from the crisis in May 2014 after putting in place an unprecedented austerity programme.

In return for the money, the government had to cut wages, pensions and social benefits, triggering mass street protests by the Portuguese, who continue to grapple with high unemployment and increased taxation.

– Survival concerns –

Portugal’s leaders have been divided on the impact of a possible Greek default.

“Portugal is well equipped to cope with possible instability linked to less positive developments in the negotiations with Greece,” Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said in early June.

Finance chief Albuquerque was less confident: “I am worried not only for Portugal, but for the whole eurozone,” she said.

Portuguese banks have significantly reduced their exposure to Greece, currently at 300 million euros against 6.8 billion euros in 2009. The Portuguese government has also lent over 1.1 billion euros to Athens.

After three years of recession, Portugal returned to growth in 2014 and expects gross domestic product to expand 1.6 percent this year.

Portugal’s budget deficit also fell to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2014 and the government has promised to bring it below 3.0 percent this year.

With a financial cushion evaluated in late March at 17 billion euros, Portugal “can survive for many months without resorting to financial markets,” said Lino from Dif Broker.

But Domingos Amaral, professor of economics at the Catholic University of Lisbon, warned that “if instability in Greece grows and everything goes wrong, it is obvious that this will impact Portugal and the rest of the Europe”.

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<org idsrc=”isin” value=”PTBPI0AM0004″>BPI</org>

reuters: A Greek exit from the euro would not mark a return to the debt crisis of 2012, but it would create risks of contagion and change the nature of the monetary union, which was supposed to be permanent, a senior Moody’s rating analyst said on Thursday.

“We don’t think that a Greek exit would be inconsequential,”

Kathrin Muehlbronner, vice-president of sovereign risk at Moody’s told Reuters in an interview in Lisbon.

Many analysts worry that Greece will be forced to leave the euro zone if it fails to reach agreement with its creditors and receive more funds.

“It (a Greek exit) would change the face and the nature of monetary union, which was supposed to be permanent and would then turn out not to be,” Muehlbronner said, adding that Portugal would be at risk of contagion in the case of a Greek exit.

She said the impact of a Greek exit would be limited by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program but might hit corporate operations.

“It’s unclear how it would play out,” she said. “The sovereigns in a way are protected by the ECB’s QE. It’s less certain about bank funding and corporate funding and their ability to access markets.”

The ECB’s program has provided a “huge help” to the eurozone and will continue to have a large influence on interest rates until September 2016, when the plan ends.

“So interest rates will remain anchored at very low levels, but they can now only go in one direction, which is up,” she said.

The ECB’s program has also reduced pressure on governments, she said.

“With interest rates so low and funding conditions improving, the pressure has been taken off governments to pursue aggressive fiscal policy measures. That’s clear for the whole eurozone,” she said.

Moody’s rates Portugal Ba1 with a stable outlook – the first notch of speculative grade.

Muehlbronner said Portugal’s rating was held back by the country’s large debt burden. At around 130 percent of GDP, it is the fifth highest in “our entire sovereign rating unit.”

“We do expect the debt to start declining this year, but even assuming fiscal consolidation, growth, you would still be looking at a ratio of 115 percent or so by the end of the decade,” she said.

Portugal’s rating is also undercut by the country’s poor growth after its debt crisis – Lisbon exited a bailout last year, when it grew 0.9 percent after three years of recession.

“Just 1 percent growth following the recent crisis brings up question marks and the possible option of additional reforms to help with the growth performance,” she said, adding she expects higher growth this year.

She said that Moody’s wants to know what fiscal policy will be like under the next government, after elections in the autumn.

“We think there is a need to continue with proactive fiscal measures, the cyclical recovery is too weak to take care of the budget issues by themselves,” she said.

(Reporting By Shrikesh Laxmidas, writing by Axel Bugge, Editing by Larry King)

 

 

Brussels, June 3, 2015 (AFP)
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras held crunch talks with European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels on Wednesday to try to seal a desperately-needed bailout deal as the country’s debt crisis nears its climax.

Radical anti-austerity leader Tsipras was presenting a reform plan to end a gruelling four-month standoff and unlock the final 7.2-billion-euro ($8.0-billion) tranche of Greece’s international rescue package.

But Greece’s creditors were sceptical and insisted Tsipras had to work from their own tougher proposal if he wants the funds to help make a critical payment to the IMF on Friday and avoid possible default.

Juncker and Tsipras shook hands for the cameras but made no comment — Juncker also avoided a repeat of previous light-hearted moments when he mocked the Greek leader’s refusal to wear a tie — before going in to what the EU described as a “working dinner”.

Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the eurozone finance ministers’ bloc who was also in Brussels for the talks, said that it was an “important meeting but I am not expecting a deal this evening.”

Greece’s eurozone partners and its creditors in the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary fund want a deal by Friday, when Athens must repay the IMF 300 million euros.

Fears of a messy Greek exit from the euro are growing, with its current 240-billion-euro bailout programme is due to run out at the end of June, and a total of 1.6 billion euros in payments due to the IMF in total this month, which Athens does not have.

– Last-minute phone call –

In the hours before the Tsipras-Juncker meeting there were frantic efforts to bridge the gap between the demands of the creditors and the hard-left Syriza government’s determination to end five years of austerity.

Syriza chief Tsipras, who was elected in January on a vow to refuse any more bailout programmes that would mean more painful cuts to Greek finances, appealed to European leaders to show unity.

“We must avoid division,” Tsipras said as he headed for Brussels, adding: “I am certain the leadership of Europe will do what must be done, it will join the side of realism.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande acknowledged “the necessity” to lower primary surplus targets — a key sticking point with Athens — during phone talks on Wednesday with Tsipras, Greek sources said.

Athens has insisted on lower targets that would allow it to honour promises to voters to increase public spending, having already made compromises on pension reform and sales tax.

Hollande said a deal could be “days, even hours away”.

But the leader of Europe’s fiscal hawks, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement.

Schaeuble said he had heard some elements of the Greek plan, which “change nothing in my assessment to colleagues in Dresden. It rather confirms it”, referring to a G7 meeting last week when he said optimism was not justified.

Meanwhile ECB chief Mario Draghi said the ECB wanted Greece to remain in the single currency, but that a “strong agreement” was needed.

– Syriza’s nod needed –

Greece was notably absent when the creditors hatched their plan at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Monday between Hollande, Merkel and Juncker, plus Draghi and IMF boss Christine Lagarde.

They are likely to demand tougher reforms than the 46-page proposal the Greek premier said he would present in Brussels, which aims to overhaul the struggling Greek economy whilst breaking with harsh austerity.

Any deal must be approved by the rest of the eurozone, where Greece’s hardheaded stance during negotiations and its flirting with Russia have alienated some other countries.

Tsipras would meanwhile face the challenge of getting an agreement through a vote at home.

This could be tough given that he is under intense pressure from Syriza’s influential radical wing to reject any reform plan that piles more austerity on the recession-hit country.

Some Syriza officials have said they would rather hold snap elections than accept more austerity.

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Paris, June 3, 2015 (AFP)
The French and German economy ministers, in a joint statement to be published in European newspapers Thursday, call for a strengthened eurozone with a common budgetary mechanism and tools to avoid the kind of debt problems Greece is suffering.

“It’s time to strengthen the eurozone by way of the EU’s biggest reform,” Emmanuel Macron and his German counterpart Sigmar Gabriel said in the comments published by France’s Le Figaro, Britain’s The Guardian, Germany’s Die Welt, Spain’s El Pais and other European dailies.

The German and French ministers also stressed that “a stronger eurozone should be the core of a deepened EU.”

The current set up has “faults” which must be repaired “so that the euro maintains its promise of economic prosperity and, more broadly, prevents Europe from drifting towards discontent and divisions,” the French and German ministers said.

“We must reconcile general European interests and national interests,” they added, alluding to “anti-European forces” developing in some EU nations.

French economy ministry sources said that the initiative to better knit the eurozone had two main strands: a common budget capacity and solidarity mechanisms to be rapidly available to help “countries in difficulty”.

The call comes as indebted Greece’s eurozone partners and its creditors in the EU and the International Monetary Fund seek a deal by Friday, when Athens must repay 300 million euros to the IMF as part of a multi-billion euro bailout deal.

It also comes as British Prime Minister David Cameron seeks EU reforms and “a better deal for Britain” ahead of an in-out membership referendum he has promised by 2017.

Macron and Gabriel, who is also Germany’s vice chancellor, called for “an embryo euro area budget” and “a fiscal capacity over and above national budgets” to act as economic stabilisers.

This could mean, for example, a common fund to quickly help national economies in difficulty, a French ministry source said.

The German and French ministers also stressed that “a stronger eurozone should be the core of a deepened EU.”

For the wider EU of 28 nations they propose “new steps” towards a better integrated internal market with a targeted approach in some key sectors, such as energy and hi-tech.

 

Riga, May 22, 2015 (AFP)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday there was still a lot of work needed to reach agreement with Greece on its debt bailout, as tortuous talks drag on amid fears Athens could run out of money.

The government of Greek leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is locked in talks to obtain fresh funding with international creditors who are demanding more tough austerity measures in return.

Tsipras met Merkel and French President Francois Hollande late Thursday on the sidelines of the EU-Eastern Partnership summit in the Latvian capital Riga but their discussions produced no breakthrough.

“It was a very friendly and constructive exchange,” Merkel said as she went into the summit Friday.

“But it is clear, the work with the three institutions has to go on. There is still a lot to do,” she said, referring to the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund who have bailed out Greece twice to the tune of 240 billion euros.

Merkel said she and Hollande had offered Tsipras their good offices if he needed help during the talks but it was up to Athens to reach an accord with the three creditors.

“The conclusion has to be found with the three institutions and it has to be worked very, very intensively,” she added.

Tsipras said he was “very optimistic” as he went into the summit Friday and declined further comment.

An aide to Hollande said earlier that the talks late Thursday had been “friendly and constructive (and had) … focused on the desire to reach an agreement on the current programme.”

A Greek government source said separately that Merkel and Hollande “understood the need for a long-term deal.”

The immediate focus is what reforms the radical left Tsipras can accept in return for the release of a final 7.2 billion euros ($8.2 billion) in bailout funds Athens needs to avoid defaulting on its debt and possibly crashing out of the eurozone.

The delay in reaching an agreement has led to concerns Athens is running critically short of cash and may soon end up defaulting, which could set off a messy exit from the euro.

 

London, May 12, 2015 (AFP)
European stock markets slid at the start of trading on Tuesday, mirroring sentiment across Asia and on Wall Street over fears about Greece’s eurozone future.

London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index shed 0.90 percent to 6,966.50 points in initial deals.

Frankfurt’s DAX 30 slumped 1.19 percent to 11,534.81 points, and the CAC 40 in Paris lost 1.07 percent to 4,973.92 compared with Monday’s close.

“European equities are trading sharply lower this morning extending yesterday’s losses after Greece’s increasingly dire financial situation is once again taking centre stage,” said Markus Huber, senior analyst at brokers Peregrine &amp; Black.

Greece narrowly averted a default Tuesday that could have seen it crashing out of the euro, but warned it faced another cash crunch in two weeks without a bailout deal with its EU-IMF financiers.

Athens’s new radical left government managed to scrape enough cash together Monday to place the order for the repayment of 750 million euros ($840 million) in loans from the International Monetary Fund,, the finance ministry said, pledging to honour both its international and domestic debt obligations.

Greece won some support in the latest round of debt talks as it battles to keep itself solvent, but eurozone finance ministers have demanded more key reforms before they agree to release the final 7.2-billion-euro tranche of its EU-IMF bailout.

“While the Greeks may have stumped up some cash to appease their creditors in the short term, unless they can get through the current impasse and reach agreement on austerity measures, markets will remain jittery,” said Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at stockbroker Interactive Investor.

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Brussels, May 12, 2015 (AFP)
Greece narrowly averted a default Tuesday that could have seen it crashing out of the euro, but warned it faced another cash crunch within two weeks without a bailout deal with its EU financiers.

Athens’s radical new government managed to scrape enough cash together Monday to place the order for the repayment of 750 million euros ($840 million) of IMF loans, the finance ministry said, pledging to honour both its international and domestic debt obligations.

Greece won some support in the latest round of debt talks as it battles to keep itself solvent, but eurozone finance ministers demanded more key reforms before they agree to release the final 7.2-billion-euro tranche of its EU-IMF bailout.

“We welcomed the progress that has been achieved so far… At the same time, we acknowledged that more time and effort are needed to bridge the gaps on the remaining open issues,” a Eurogroup statement said after the meeting in Brussels.

But Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis — leading the charge for the anti-austerity government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras — admitted Athens faced an imminent crisis as it struggles to keep up repayments on its 240-billion-euro bailout.

“The liquidity issue is a terribly urgent issue. It’s common knowledge, let’s not beat around the bush,” said the shaven-headed former economics professor, who has been at loggerheads with his international counterparts.

“From the perspective (of timing), we are talking about the next couple of weeks.”

– Punishing repayments –

Greece faces a punishing debt repayment schedule in coming weeks, owing another 1.5 billion euros to the IMF in June and then another three billion euros to the European Central Bank (ECB) in July and August.

Athens has been squeezing funds from the central and local governments to be able to meet its payments, but mayors are beginning to resist.

World stock markets fell in response to the news, with Asian shares dropping at the open after Wall Street snapped a two-day rally, while the euro was trading at $1.1162 in Tokyo from $1.1208 on Friday.

Led by Germany, the Europeans still expect a rigorous regime of reforms from Athens including cuts to pensions, but Tsipras’s leftist government in power since January has so far refused to deliver on the terms of the bailout.

Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem insisted that a full deal was needed for Greece to get its remaining bailout funds, but raised the possibility of breaking up the reform programme into steps and then making staggered disbursements.

But the eurozone needed “more detailed proposals” from Greece, the Dutchman said, adding there was “a lot of work behind the scenes in Athens that needs to be done.”

EU economic affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici said that on issues like pensions and the labour market, Greece had to make “alternative proposals for areas of programme that it rejects.”

Varoufakis said he hoped for a deal in coming days.

– Referendum question –

Meanwhile Germany raised the issue of a possible referendum, a prospect already mooted by the Greeks.

“Maybe this would be the right measure to let the Greek people decide if it is ready to accept what is necessary,” powerful finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.

While Varoufakis said the idea was “not on our radar at the moment,” it revives a pledge made by Tspiras at the end of April that, if Greece’s financers push his government to a deal that contravenes their election promises, it would be put to a public vote.

Greece was hoping that the symbolic statement of progress won from the eurozone Monday will help persuade the ECB to keep emergency funds flowing to Greece’s fragile banks.

“The statement is a clear sign that the process is ongoing, and that’s something,” a European official involved in the talks said on condition of anonymity. “But will it be enough for the ECB? I don’t know.”

Tsipras, whose hard-left Syriza party swept to power on an anti-austerity platform, has called for an “honourable compromise,” and the government reportedly plans a number of concessions to win over its creditors.

These include a new VAT rate, along with a restriction on early retirement and an unpopular property tax that would enable the government to save billions of euros as demanded by its creditors.

 

Frankfurt, April 15, 2015 (AFP)
The European Central Bank will be keen to stress Wednesday that it has no plans to roll back controversial policy measures, as signs multiply that its medicine is beginning to work, analysts said.

ECB chief Mario Draghi is not expected to announce any changes in policy at the governing council’s regular meeting, held a day earlier than usual because of the traditional spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington at the weekend.

But he is likely to underline the positive effects of a raft of different policy measures, including a contested sovereign bond purchase programme launched last month.

And he will be at pains to emphasise that there are no plans to “taper” the measures any time soon, analysts said.

“This week’s ECB meeting should be a non-event. QE has started to work and, for the first time in a long while, the ECB can sit back and relax. ECB president Draghi only needs to be careful not to overdo any self-congratulation, to avoid any premature tapering discussion,” said ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski.

QE or “quantitative easing” is a massive 1.1-trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion) sovereign bond purchase scheme aimed at bringing area-wide inflation back up to levels consistent with healthy economic growth.

Under the programme, the ECB aims to buy 60 billion euros of bonds per month until September 2016.

The scheme has its critics, not least the head of the German central bank or Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, who fear it will lessen pressure on governments to get their economies and finances in order.

– When will tapering begin? –

Opponents are likely to argue for an early roll-back of the programme as the eurozone recovery picks up speed.

New data suggest that QE is already helping to get credit flowing again within the 19 countries that share the euro.

The ECB’s latest bank lending survey, published on Tuesday, showed that credit conditions are easing and demand for loans is on the increase.

“The first month of QE went smoother than some market participants had feared,” said Brzeski.

“We expect the ECB to keep policy rates on hold and do not expect any new measures or changes to the current purchase programme from the ECB meeting. But we expect a fairly dovish tone from Draghi,” said Natixis economist Johannes Gareis.

On the data front, things appear to be moving in the right direction. Inflation was less negative in March than it was the previous month and sentiment indicators are all pointing upwards.

That may provide QE opponents at the ECB governing council with ammunition in calling for an early end to the programme.

Last week, the German business daily Handelsblatt asked “When does the exit begin?”

ECB executive board member Yves Mersch also addressed the issue of a possible “overdosing” on QE recently.

He insisted that if inflation expectations grew above the ECB’s current forecast of 1.8 percent in 2017, “it would, of course, be appropriate to consider whether we need to adjust our plan”.

The latest data, however, shows that risk is still far off.

Prices in the 19-nation single currency bloc were down 0.1 percent in March, less than the drop in January and February but still a long way from the ECB’s target of just under 2.0 percent annual inflation.

“Against the background of a better eurozone outlook, some have argued that the ECB will taper QE before September 2016,” said Gareis.

But “we have some doubts and we do not expect the ECB to taper asset purchases any time soon,” he said.

UniCredit economist Marco Valli agreed.

“We continue to see a low probability that QE will be stopped before September 2016,” he said.

Beijing, March 25, 2015 (AFP)
The inexorable decline of the single currency offers ambitious Chinese firms a bargain buffet of eurozone business, analysts say, with this weekend’s multibillion deal for Italian tyremaker Pirelli only the latest course in an acquisition binge.

Less than a year ago the euro was worth nearly $1.40 on international markets. Earlier this month it stood at less than $1.05, down by a quarter as the European Central Bank embarks on a massive stimulus programme while the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to start raising interest rates.

By the standards of first-world forex markets it ranks as a collapse.

It has recorded a similar performance against China’s yuan currency, falling from almost 8.7 yuan in May to bottom at less than 6.6 yuan. The yuan trades in a tight range against the dollar.

As the unit weakens it makes eurozone acquisitions cheaper for outside buyers and its biggest headline impact may come in terms of Chinese overseas investment, which surged past $100 billion for the first time last year.

“For Chinese going into Europe it can’t get better than this,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC).

“Chinese companies are eager to go outside China as its own domestic economy is slowing down,” he told AFP, adding that profit margins in the rest of the world are higher than in China, according to EUCCC member surveys.

“So I can only expect a major push from Chinese companies to buy into the European company landscape.”

The latest deal came with state-owned chemical giant ChemChina agreeing to buy out the largest shareholder in Pirelli, valuing the purveyor of Formula One accessories and racy calendars at just over seven billion euros — now about 48 billion yuan, or 13 billion yuan less than in May.

– ‘Itching to invest’ –

The euro has flirted with parity against the dollar in recent weeks — for the first time since 2002 — and while the euro rose to $1.0964 on Tuesday it remained within striking distance of more-than-dozen-year lows.

China’s overseas direct investment pushed sharply higher in February, the commerce ministry said, driven by oil giant China National Petroleum Corp putting nearly $3 billion into a Dutch transaction.

“The continued slumps in the euro’s value against the dollar have led the price of eurozone assets to fall, creating an opportunity for Chinese companies to invest and carry out mergers and acquisitions there,” said commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang.

Beijing has accrued the world’s biggest foreign exchange reserves and has been running record monthly trade surpluses, with the state-run China Daily newspaper saying in an editorial the country “is itching to invest overseas”.

Private companies are also taking a seat at the table, with billionaire Wang Jianlin buying 20 percent of Spanish league champions Atletico Madrid in January, the first mainland Chinese investment in a top European football club.

Conglomerate Fosun declared victory in February in its long takeover battle for French holiday resorts group Club Med, having repeatedly raised its offer to 939 million euros.

Klaus E. Meyer, a professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, said Chinese investing abroad generally take a long-term view and are driven by acquiring technology or brands they can exploit domestically.

“The fact that assets in Europe are now cheaper because of the weaker euro means that this sort of asset-seeking foreign investment is likely to increase,” he said.

The Pirelli deal was met with dismay but resignation in Italy, and Derek Scissors of the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute said that given its economic travails, the eurozone will not look askance on inflows from China.

“Most Chinese companies are now sophisticated enough to back off of outright acquisitions when there is political sensitivity, buying smaller stakes in high-profile companies,” he added.

Chinese firms may also already be taking advantage of the weaker euro to raise cheaper capital overseas.

Four China-based non-financial companies issued the equivalent of $2.8 billion in euro-dominated bonds in January and February, according to Dealogic data, more than the $1.9 billion raised in the whole of 2014.

– Trade imbalance –

Nonetheless the consequences of the euro’s decline are not all one-way.

The 28-member EU is China’s biggest trade partner while China is the EU’s second-largest, and China ran a surplus of $126.63 billion last year with the full group, nine of whose members do not use the single currency.

But the euro’s decline makes eurozone goods cheaper elsewhere and Chinese products comparatively dearer.

“When it comes to trade certainly European exporters are going to be very happy as their products are going to be more competitive,” Wuttke said, while Chinese exporters will face tougher times.

“And so I expect actually that this trade imbalance that we have will narrow significantly as we go forward,” he said.

JAKARTA. Gonjang ganjing perkara utang di Eropa memicu euro (EUR) rontok. Mata uang 18 negara anggota Uni Eropa ini memasuki tren bearish jangka pendek. Mengutip Bloomberg, Selasa (10/3) pukul 16.45 WIB, pasangan EUR/USD turun 0,96% menjadi 1,0751. Pairing EUR/JPY merosot 0,41% ke level 130,93. Namun, pairing EUR/AUD naik tipis 0,06% ke 1,4098.

Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures Agus Chandra menduga, pasangan EUR/USD akan tertekan di jangka pendek. Euro terkapar akibat krisis utang Yunani. Negeri Para Dewa ini belum mencapai kesepakatan perpanjangan utang dengan kreditur. “Ketidakpastian ini merebak di tengah rencana kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral AS,” kata Agus.

Analis dan Direktur PT Astronacci International Gema Goeyardi menilai, pasangan EUR/JPY melemah karena euro di posisi tidak menguntungkan. Selain utang Yunani, euro juga diwarnai sentimen negatif menyusul langkah Bank Sentral Eropa membeli obligasi negara di Eropa.

Sementara yen justru sedang positif, lantaran ekonomi Jepang masih bagus. Pada Senin (9/3), neraca berjalan Januari 2015 surplus ¥ 1,06 triliun. Meski meleset dari prediksi, surplus ¥ 1,16 triliun,  tapi masih di atas Desember lalu, yakni ¥ 850 miliar. “Selama belum ada perubahan fundamental ekonomi Eropa, tren pairing EUR/JPY masih bearish untuk beberapa waktu ke depan,” prediksi Gema.

Sementara, analis PT Esandar Arthamas Berjangka Tonny Mariano menyebutkan, penguatan pasangan EUR/AUD lebih akibat investor melakukan aksi beli saat posisi sudah  di level bawah.

Asal tahu saja, pairing ini sudah merosot sejak 3 Februari ke level terendah enam tahun. “Kenaikan ini bersifat sementara. Euro berpotensi turun lagi, karena efek program pembelian obligasi dan data ekonomi Eropa kurang mendukung,” prediksi Tonny.

 

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/utang-yunani-dan-euro
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

 

Athens, March 5, 2015 (AFP)
Cash-strapped Greece had been hoping that the European Central Bank — which is about to pump billions into the eurozone economy — would help ease its torment, but so far the ECB has been markedly reluctant to come to its aid.

These are the key issues over which they are at loggerheads:

– Holder of the purse strings –

The bank — whose governors meet on Thursday — is one of the big three institutions, along with the IMF and the European Commission, who must make sure Greece sticks to the terms of its 240-billion-euro ($265-billion) bailout, and the extension that the country’s new leaders have just agreed.

But new promises of more spending by Greece’s left-wing government to tackle the “humanitarian crisis” in the country got a chilly reception from the ECB’s president Mario Draghi.

“It is far from certain that the bank is ready” to give Greece the helping help that it expects with its creditors, said economist Carsten Brzeski of ING bank.

Athens would like to borrow more money in short-term bonds called treasury bills, its only real means of raising cash on its own.

But neither the ECB nor the other two members of the “troika” that hold Greece’s purse strings are ready to raise the ceiling of 15 billion euros it is allowed to raise in this way.

– Relaxing the rules? –

The governors of the ECB halted in February an exception that temporarily allowed Greek banks to refinance themselves from the ECB in Frankfurt using Greek debt as a guarantee.

As long as the ECB thinks Greece is not doing enough to push through the reforms it would like, this source of financing is unlikely to be restablished.

Since this source of cash was cut, Greek banks have had to borrow from the Bank of Greece at more costly rates through a mechanism called Emergency Liquidity Assistance.

While the debt is formally on the books of the Bank of Greece, the ECB still controls the amount of funds that can be used in this manner, and this too will be on the table on Thursday.

To make matters worse for Athens, the ECB has asked Greek banks to stop buying Greek treasury bills on which the government has so relied, cutting off another lifeline.

– Greece wants what it’s ‘owed’ –

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis claims that the ECB owes Greece 1.9 billion euros and wants to use the money to make the next repayment to the IMF at the end of March.

The sum is the money the bank has made on Greek debt it bought up at the height of the crisis, along with the sovereign debt of other struggling eurozone countries.

Although it was agreed in 2012 that money made on Greek debt would go back to Greece, Draghi said last week that first Athens “must conform to the programme”. The money was not the bank’s to give, he claimed, because the profits have already been redistributed to eurozone central banks.

But Varoufakis insisted this was “the Greek people’s money” and demanded to know why “why we are being evaluated” before it is given back.

– ‘No debt restructuring’ –

It is out of the question to restructure the 27 billion euros of Greek debt the ECB holds, one of its directors, Benoit Coeure, said in January.

But Varoufakis claimed that if the debt had been held by private banks, a part of it at least would have been written off during a restructuring in 2012.

Now, however, Athens must pay these obligations as they come due, with 6.7 billion euros falling due to the ECB this summer.

– Athens gets nothing –

While the ECB is about to pump billions into the flagging eurozone economy through “quantitative easing” — buying up at least 1.1 trillion euros of public and private debt — ironically Greece cannot for now benefit from its largesse.

The bank’s rules dictate that it cannot hold more than a third of the sovereign debt of any country. So until Greece pays off the debts that fall due in the summer, it will be excluded from the massive bid to kickstart growth.

 

Hong Kong, Feb 17, 2015 (AFP)
The euro weakened Tuesday after the showdown debt talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed, raising the prospect the country will be dumped out of the eurozone.

However, many equity markets were unfazed by the trouble in Europe as trade begins to wind down in several Asian bourses ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of the week.

Tokyo fell 0.24 percent by lunch and Sydney shed 0.40 percent but Hong Kong was 0.11 percent higher, Shanghai added 0.75 percent and Seoul was up 0.17 percent.

Taipei and Mumbai are closed for public holidays.

The closely watched meeting Monday broke down without agreement on Greece’s debt after Athens refused eurozone finance ministers’ demand that it must apply for an extension to its bailout.

Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the country had the rest of the week to make the request, with the 240 billion euro ($270 billion) lifeline expiring at the end of the month.

But an Athens source dismissed the demand to stick to its current bailout as “absurd”.

Greece’s new far left-led government swept to power last month on a platform of overhauling the terms of the austerity-laden financial aid package, which it says has crippled the economy.

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is looking for a six-month bridging loan to give Greece time and financial help to negotiate a new deal.

However, the 18 other eurozone nations, led by Germany, say any changes must pass within the current programme.

The breakdown hit the euro, which sank to $1.338 and 134.18 yen from $1.1390 and 134.53 yen in London.

It is also sharply down from the $1.1421 and 135.43 yen levels earlier Monday in Tokyo.

“Greece and Germany came to the talks with different preconditions, and the lack of compromise is weighing on the euro,” Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole SA in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News.

The dollar bought 118.34 yen against 118.47 yen.

US markets were closed Monday for a public holiday.

Oil prices moved higher after key crude producer Kuwait signalled that the recent rise in oil prices would hold, while resurgent violence in Libya also provided support.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose 12 cents to $52.90 while Brent crude for April gained 30 cents to $61.70.

Gold fetched $1,232.27 an ounce, against $1,233.33 on Monday.

Athens, Feb 11, 2015 (AFP)
Eurozone finance ministers and Greece’s new left-wing government failed to reach a deal Wednesday to renegotiate the country’s huge bailout, a Greek government source said.

“(They) haven’t made a deal. The extension of the agreement has not been accepted,” the source said, adding that talks would continue with the aim of “a mutually beneficial agreement” for Greece’s economy.

 

Frankfurt, Feb 9, 2015 (AFP)
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, clocked up a record volume of exports and attained its largest ever trade surplus, data compiled by the federal statistics office Destatis showed on Monday.

Germany exported a record 1.134 trillion euros ($1.28 trillion) worth of goods last year, pushing its trade surplus to a record 217 billion euros, Destatis calculated in a statement.

Rome, Feb 3, 2015 (AFP)
Greece on Tuesday floated proposals to ease the economic pressure generated by its massive foreign debt, boosting stock markets as hopes rose for a deal with its European Union partners.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he believed an accord on the debt terms was possible, and promised Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras, whom he met in Rome, of Italy’s support in trying to achieve it.

“There has to be change in Europe,” Tsipras said. “We have to put social cohesion and growth before the policies of poverty and insecurity.”

Renzi echoed the call for more growth-orientated policies but pointedly steered clear of any comment on the detail of Greece’s proposals, which he said would be discussed by EU leaders next week.

“The world is calling on Europe to invest in growth, not austerity,” Renzi said, before joking that the election of Tsipras was a “blessing” because it ensured he was no longer Europe’s number one “dangerous lefty”.

The press conference finished on a light-hearted note with Renzi presenting Tsipras with an Italian tie.

Tsipras — whose fondness for open-necked shirts is often highlighted as a badge of his anti-establishment beliefs — promised to wear it when “we finally find a viable solution.”

– Debt swaps not haircuts –

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is pushing the idea of debt swaps that would avoid the need for creditors to accept ‘haircuts’ on the country’s 315-billion-euro ($361-billion) foreign debt, while easing the monthly financing burden on the Athens government.

He said Greece’s ideas would be put to eurozone finance ministers next week ahead of the summit of EU leaders.

Varoufakis heads to Frankfurt Wednesday for talks with European Central Bank officials, who are reported to be opposing a pivotal part of his plan: a request for bridging finance needed to keep the country solvent until June.

According to the Financial Times, the ECB’s opposition could lead to Athens running out of cash at the end of February — a suggestion that may spook markets as much as Tuesday’s developments cheered them.

In its Wednesday edition, the FT reported, citing officials involved in deliberations, that the ECB will refuse Varoufakis’ suggestion of raising 10 billion euros in short-term Treasury bills because it refuses to go above an existing cap of 15 billion euros on such debt issuance.

The Greek minister will have another tricky encounter on Thursday, when he will meet German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin in what will be a key test of whether his proposals have any chance of being accepted by the EU’s leading powers.

– Athens stocks soar –

The Greek initiative was interpreted by markets on Tuesday as reducing the likelihood of any unilateral debt cancellation, which would entail a risk of reigniting the kind of financial turmoil that has severely damaged leading economies since 2007.

Led by the Athens bourse, which closed up more than 11 percent, stock markets across Europe rose on the news, as did Wall Street.

“After a week of trading insults and threats it looks like the eurozone paymasters and the new Greek government are finally ready to compromise,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading site Forex.com.

The Greek government denied the debt swaps proposal represented a climbdown from election promises to force a renegotiation of its debt terms.

“If we need to use euphemism and the tools of financial mechanisms to get Greece out of its debt-slavery, we will do it,” a spokesman said.

The Greek plan would involve swapping some of the country’s current bonds for new ones under which repayments would be linked to economic growth rates.

Greek bonds owned by the European Central Bank would become “perpetual”, or open-ended, removing the need to make regular repayments at fixed intervals.

– Germany unimpressed –

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was non-committal about the Greek proposals. “It is clear the Greek government is still establishing its position,” she said. “We await their proposals and there will be time enough to discuss them.”

Privately, German officials said there was “little room for manoeuvre” on the debt conditions.

Greece’s debt is worth 1.75 times the country’s entire annual economic output. Because of severe spending cuts, the government now raises substantially more in taxes than it pays to fund services, but that surplus is more than wiped out by the cost of servicing the debt.

US President Barack Obama on Sunday appeared to side with Greece by warning of the dangers of “squeezing” an economy in the grip of recession.

– Next stop Paris –

Tsipras has dismissed the “troika” system monitoring Greece’s economy — the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and ECB — as lacking legal status.

But he also says Greece has no intention of not meeting its outstanding obligations to the bailout creditors.

The new premier is due in Brussels on Wednesday and will also visit Paris in search of support from France, the eurozone’s second-biggest economy and, like Italy, a critic of EU ‘austerity’.

 

New York, Jan 23, 2015 (AFP)
The euro fell again against the dollar Friday, hitting a new 11-year low a day after the European Central Bank unveiled a vast bond-buying program to revive the eurozone.

The currency market also nervously awaited the outcome of Greece’s general elections Sunday, with polls showing the leftist anti-austerity Syriza party would win, posing a new challenge to the bailout program from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

The euro, which fetched $1.1359 late Thursday, tumbled to $1.1115, the lowest level since September 2003.

The ECB’s announcement Thursday of a 1.14-trillion-euro ($1.27-trillion) bond-buying program, or quantitative easing (QE), aims to stimulate growth and avert deflation after the nearly stagnant eurozone saw prices drop in December for the first time in five years.

ECB chief Mario Draghi said the program would continue at least through September 2016.

Analysts said the euro could slide further toward dollar parity as the ECB announcement underscores a growing policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve, which exited its QE program in October and is considering an interest rate hike this year.

“The key factor is that the ECB’s extension of QE is open-ended,” said RIA Capital Markets analyst Nick Stamenkovic.

“In other words, if euro area inflation fails to rise in coming months then further purchases are likely as it attempts to restore price stability over the medium-term.”

But with the Fed looking set to raise interest rates from near zero, where they have been pegged since late 2008 amid the financial crisis, in mid-2015, “the euro looks increasingly likely to reach (dollar) parity by year-end, if not sooner,” he said.

The Fed’s policy arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management said that part of the dollar index’s more than five percent gain since the beginning of the year reflected the positive outlook for the US economy, which is enjoying relatively strong growth compared with other major economies.

“The main reason why the dollar is performing so well is because central banks around the world are in a race to ease,” Lien said, citing the Bank of Canada’s quarter-point rate cut, the ECB’s QE and dovish minutes from the Bank of England monetary policy meeting.
<pre> 2200 GMT Friday Thursday
EUR/USD 1.1208 1.1359
EUR/JPY 132.03 134.63
EUR/CHF 0.9876 0.9867
EUR/GBP 0.7476 0.7565
USD/JPY 117.80 118.52
USD/CHF 0.8811 0.8725
GBP/USD 1.4994 1.5016
</pre>

London/Paris (ANTARA News) – Harga saham-saham Eropa mencapai tertinggi dalam tujuh tahun pada Senin (Selasa dinihari WIB), naik untuk hari ketiga karena saham bank-bank Italia rally terkait prospek perubahan tata kelola perusahaan, dan saham Swiss beranjak dari kerugian beberapa minggu terakhir.

Sentimen pasar secara luas telah didukung oleh ekspektasi-ekspektasi Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) yang pada Kamis nanti mengungkapkan rencannya membeli obligasi pemerintah untuk mencoba melawan deflasi dan menghidupkan kembali pertumbuhan, kata Reuters melaporkan.

“Orang-orang telah membeli sebelum ini,” kata Justin Haque, seorang broker di Hobert Capital Market dikutip Reuters.

Saham-saham dalam bank koperasi Italia naik terpengaruh keputusan rancangan pemerintah yang akan menghapus aturan pemberian satu hak suara untuk setiap pemegang saham, terlepas berapa pun jumlah kepemilikan saham mereka.

Popolare Milano, Banca Popolare dell”Emilia Romagna, Banco Popolare, dan UBI naik antara 8 persen hingga 14 persen.

Bank Swiss Julius Baer naik tertinggi di antara saham-saham terbesar Eropa, naik 5,9 persen. Bank swasta itu mengatakan tidak akan menderita kerugian akibat penurunan dalam dua hari perdagangan setelah keputusan Swiss National Bank soal mata uang franc.

Indeks patokan Swiss, SMI, naik 3,2 persen pasca-terkoreksi 13 persen minggu lalu, setelah keputusan mengejutkan bank sental membuat franc melonjak.

Indeks saham-saham utama Eropa, FTSEurofirst 300, naik 0,2 persen menjadi 1.409,92 poin, setelah menyentuh level tertinggi sejak awal 2008 pada 1.418,11.

Kenaikan indeks itu terpangkas tipis sebelum penutupan, dengan saham-saham minyak dan sumber daya dasar yang menghambat kenaikan.

Analis memperkirakan ECB akan mengumumkan rencananya membeli sekitar 500-600 miliar euro obligasi pemerintah, meskipun tetap ada keraguan mengenai “dandanan” (make-up) pembelian dan bagaimana beban akan dibagi antara ECB dan bank-bank sentral nasional.

Ekspektasi bahwa ECB akan mulai membeli obligasi pemerintah, menurunkan imbal hasil obligasi tersebut dan mendorong beberapa investor beralih ke aset-aset berisiko seperti ekuitas, telah membantu saham Eropa mengungguli Wall Street bulan ini, demikian mengutip Reuters.

http://www.antaranews.com/berita/475079/saham-eropa-mencapai-tertinggi-dalam-tujuh-tahun
Sumber : ANTARANEWS.COM

JAKARTA &mdash; Bursa Eropa menguat ke level tertinggi sejak 2008 seiring penguatan sektor minyak menutupi penurunan saham di Swiss.

Indeks Stoxx Europe 600 naik 1,1% ke level 352,4 pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (16/1/2015).

“Ini sangat sulit untuk melihat arah pergerakan pasar saat ini,” ujar Teis Knuthsen, Chief Investment Officer Saxo Bank A/S’s Private-Banking Unit Hellerup, seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Senin (19/1/2015).

Indeks energi naik paling kencang diantara 19 kelompok industri lainnya. Saham Total SA dan BG Group Plc naik lebih dari 3%.

 

Source : Bloomberg

http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150119/7/392281/bursa-eropa-indeks-stoxx-600-melonjak-11-sentuh-rekor-tertinggi-sejak-2008
Sumber : BISNIS.COM

JAKARTA. Dollar Amerika Serikat (USD) mendapat sentimen positif dari keputusan Pengadilan Eropa, yang menyetujui Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) memperlonggar kebijakan moneter. Tapi pelaku pasar juga perlu mencermati kebijakan terbaru Swiss National Bank (SNB).

Data Bloomberg, Kamis (15/1) pukul 16.20 WIB menunjukkan, pasangan EUR/USD melemah 0,29% menjadi 1,1755. Ini adalah level terendah sejak pertengahan Juli 2014. Sementara pairing USD/JPY menguat 0,13% menjadi 117,48. Tapi USD keok oleh dollar Australia (AUD) 0,9% ke level 0,8233.

Ariston Tjendra, Analis Monex Investindo Futures, mengungkapkan, otot USD kuat lantaran sentimen baru terkait keputusan Pengadilan Eropa yang menyetujui kebijakan stimulus ekonomi ECB pada tahun 2012 lalu. Keputusan Pengadilan Eropa ini dapat menjadi legal standing bagi ECB melakukan pelonggaran kebijakan moneter demi mengerem laju deflasi.

“Jika jadi diputuskan pada rapat ECB 22 Januari mendatang, ini positif buat USD tapi buruk buat EUR,” kata Ariston. Hasil keputusan pengadilan Eropa ini sedikit mengubur sentimen negatif dari angka penjualan ritel AS yang buruk.

Namun Tonny Mariano, Analis Harvest International Futures, menilai, pasar tidak terlalu melihat penurunan penjualan ritel. Pasalnya, pasar melihat kondisi ekonomi AS stabil sehingga The Fed bakal mendongkrak suku bunga.

Nanang Wahyudin, Analis SooGee Futures, mengatakan, AUD memang mendapatkan tenaga dari data pengangguran Aussie yang lebih baik dari perkiraan sejumlah pihak. Potensi rebound AUD akan tetap terjaga setidaknya dalam 1-2 hari ke depan.

Pelaku pasar sebaiknya juga mencermati langkah SNB mengakhiri kebijakan melindungi ekonomi dari krisis utang kawasan euro. Suku bunga SNB turun menjadi minus 0,75% dari sebelumnya minus 0,25%. Akibatnya, mata uang Swiss Franc melonjak. Kemarin, Indeks Bloomberg Dollar Spot turun 0,4%.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/dollar-dapat-sentimen-positif-dari-stimulus-eropa
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

LONDON. Hingga akhir tahun 2014, ancaman deflasi masih membayangi pemulihan ekonomi di kawasan Uni Eropa (UE). Pada Desember 2014, harga barang di daratan Eropa turun 0,2% dibandingkan bulan November 2014. Ini adalah deflasi pertama UE sejak mengalami krisis finansial pada tahun 2009 silam.

Pemicu utama deflasi adalah penurunan harga bahan bakar yang terseret anjloknya harga minyak dunia. Mengacu data sementara Eurostat, harga energi turun 6,3% pada Desember 2014, dibandingkan tahun lalu (year on year). Sementara, harga makanan,  alkohol dan tembakau stagnan, setelah naik tipis 0,5% pada November 2014. Harga jasa naik sekitar 1,2% dibandingkan Desember 2013.

Andai harga energi dihitung terpisah, UE inflasi 0,6%,. Angka ini stagnan dengan realisasi inflasi pada November 2014. James Ashley, Kepala Ekonom Capital Economics, menilai, penurunan harga minyak tidak bisa disalahkan. “Ini bukti bahwa kebijakan moneter dan fiskal belum tepat,” ujar dia, mengutip BBC, Rabu (7/1).

http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/desember-2014-uni-eropa-deflasi
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

Jakarta &mdash;  Nilai tukar euro jatuh ke level terendah sejak Maret 2006 pada sesi pertama perdagangan di pasar Asia, Senin (5/1).

Pelemahan ini sebagai imbas dari berlanjutnya spekulasi European Central Bank akan segera meluncurkan program pelonggaran kuantitatif (QE) untuk membatasi risiko deflasi.

Selain itu, pasar juga merespons negatif terhadap masa depan Yunani yang belum juga menampakkan tanda pemulihan.

Para pelaku pasar melihat euro akan jatuh ke level US$1,1864, setelah sempat menembus level psikologis US$1,20.

http://www.imq21.com/news/read/275850/20150105/094012/Euro-Jatuh-ke-Level-Terendah-Sejak-Maret-2006.html
Sumber : IMQ21.COM

NEW YORK, Jan 02, 2015 (AFP)
The euro sank to $1.20 Friday, its lowest level against the greenback since May 2010, as European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi reiterated the possibility of more stimulus coming.

Draghi said in an interview published in the German business daily Handelsblatt that deflation remains a threat and that the ECB needs to be prepared to counter it.

“If inflation is too low for too long, then it can happen that people will bet on a further fall in prices and postpone spending. We haven’t reached that point yet. But we have to prepare for that risk,” Draghi said.

But the risk that the central bank will not be able to move inflation higher “has increased compared to six months ago,” Draghi said.

As a result, the ECB “is currently technically preparing to adjust the size, speed and composition of our measures at the start of 2015, should it become necessary,” he said.

Both currencies meanwhile pulled up against the yen, which had strengthened on its safe-haven appeal ahead of the new year holiday.
<pre> 2200 GMT Friday Wednesday
EUR/USD 1.2002 1.2097
EUR/JPY 144.58 144.87
EUR/CHF 1.2019 1.2027
EUR/GBP 0.7829 0.7765
USD/JPY 120.46 119.76
USD/CHF 1.0002 0.9942
GBP/USD 1.5330 1.5576
</pre>

MADRID, Dec 30, 2014 (AFP)
Madrid is famed worldwide for its wild nightlife — but locals say recession, unemployment and higher sales tax are changing partying habits in the Spanish capital.

“There’s no denying the crisis. It affects the whole country, and Madrid’s bars and nightclubs are no exception,” said Dani Marin, joint owner of Costello, one of the city centre’s hundreds of drinking establishments.

On a Friday night around Christmas, its basement throbs with live rock music, while upstairs drinkers chat leaning on the bar to the mellower rhythms of a DJ.

It is a typical bar scene in a country devoted to partying out on the town — but people in the business say Spaniards are spending less on that pastime.

“Consumption has fallen a lot,” said Marin. “Sometimes the bar still gets as busy and lively as it was six years ago, but overall our revenues are down by about half.”

After the death of longtime dictator Francisco Franco in 1975 the Spanish capital responded to the country’s newfound freedom with an explosion in creativity in theatre, music and nightlife dubbed “La Movida Madrilena”, which loosely translates as the Madrid scene.

Times have changed, however. The economic crisis that erupted in 2008 due to the collapse of a decade-long property bubble altered things.

“Madrid used to be a city like Berlin or London are now, full of opportunities. It used to have more on offer,” said one bar-goer, Juan Canadas, strolling in Madrid’s trendy Malasana district. “It has lost a bit of its magic.”

The crisis drove up unemployment to a current rate of 24 percent and prompted tough economic austerity measures by the conservative government.

These included raising sales tax from eight to 21 percent in 2012, which has cramped consumption.

“I love Madrid. At our age you find everything you want,” said another festive local, Quiara Lopez, a student of 20, out for a night on the town with a friend.

“You have all kinds of places to go and you can do what you want. But you have to watch what you spend.”

– Shorter weekends –

With 75,000 people working in them, Madrid’s bars, casinos, theatres, restaurants and nightclubs are crucial for the region.

They generate up to 7.5 billion euros ($9.1 billion) in revenues a year, about 4.7 percent of the region’s economy, according to some estimates.

The decline in nightlife has erased nearly one percentage point from the region’s output, said Vicente Pizcueta, spokesman for a Madrid leisure business association.

The drop in business is striking.

“Thursday used to be like part of the weekend,” with the bars packed, said Marin. “Now it is just another day of the week. That is the most remarkable change we have seen.”

Madrid city hall insists it is working to support restaurants and bars, which it says are two of its main tourist draws.

With fewer drinkers coming out to play, bar owners are adapting to survive.

“We have been reinventing ourselves, doing all sorts of things,” German Hughes, manager of the La Palma cafe, which has been open for 20 years.

“We used to have three concerts here a week. Now we have five, plus two book launches and a play. We are putting on more activities so that people have more incentives to come.”

After six hard years, figures suggest that consumer spending is slowly taking off again in Spain. As the economy gradually heats back up, bar owners hope this city’s nightlife will do the same.

“Madrid has changed enormously since the Movida,” said Hughes. “But we who work in nightlife are continuing to fight. We continue to believe that like everything in life, this is part of a cycle that soon will turn better.”

BERLIN, Dec 18, 2014 (AFP)
German business confidence rose again in December, the Ifo economic institute said Thursday, as the prospects for Europe’s biggest economy grew sunnier.

Auspicious factors including the tumbling price of oil and the weak euro sent the Ifo institute’s closely watched business climate index up to 105.5 points this month from 104.7 points in November, the think tank said.

“The outlook for the months ahead continued to brighten,” Ifo chief Hans-Werner Sinn said in a statement.

“Dropping oil prices and a falling euro exchange rate are seasonal gifts to the German economy.”

Ifo calculates its headline index on the basis of companies’ assessments of current business and the outlook for the next six months.

The sub-index measuring current business held steady at 110.0 points compared to last month, while the outlook sub-index climbed 1.3 points to 101.1 points.

The data came on the back of a survey released Tuesday showing a sharp rise in investor sentiment in Germany.

The widely watched investor confidence index calculated by the ZEW economic institute jumped by 23.4 points in December, after increasing for the first time this year in November.

Analysts were encouraged by the improved Ifo index following a positive turnaround in November from long months of decline.

“German business confidence confirmed the decent rebound of the economy in the final quarter of the year,” said Carsten Brzeski of ING-Diba bank in Frankfurt.

He said that the worst crises threatening the economy — the Ukraine conflict and eurozone weakness — had eased of late.

But Brzeski said “complacency” undermining a drive for new economic reforms, Russia’s economic woes and Germany’s over-reliance on exports all posed risks.

Heinrich Bayer, a Postbank analyst, said the Ifo report indicated that German domestic demand “would stay on course for growth while the pressures and insecurities weighing on exports are losing relevance”.

Christian Schulz of Berenberg Bank said the survey “heralds the end of the economic rough patch”.

“Resilient export expectations, a strong competitive position, receding uncertainty over Russia’s action in Ukraine and cheap oil boost the outlook for Germany’s industrial backbone,” he said.

“We expect robust consumption growth to continue in 2015, joined by an investment rebound.”

Economist Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics in London said that the favourable euro exchange rate and the likelihood of quantitative easing stimulus measures by the European Central Bank appeared to be offsetting concerns about Russia and fresh political instability in Greece.

However he said that the Ifo data was “consistent with only very sluggish growth in German” gross domestic product.

“While the survey provides some comfort that the German economy is still growing, it suggests that growth remains well short of the rates required to drive a decent upturn across the eurozone,” he said.

MADRID, Dec 10, 2014 (AFP)
When Spain’s property bubble burst in 2008, the country was plunged into an economic crisis that threw millions of people out of work.

Now after six hard years, and even though hundreds of thousands of properties stand empty, building has restarted in the country.

The decade before the crash saw an all-out building frenzy in the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy. Around 700,000 houses were built each year during the 2000s until the bubble burst, more than in Britain, France and Germany combined.

At the same time municipal and local governments, flush with cash in part from the sale of building licences, undertook massive infrastructure projects, such as Huesca airport in the foothills of the Pyrenees in northeastern Spain, which opened in 2007 and is now mostly empty.

Nearly 1.9 million people worked in the building sector before the economic crisis. Now the sector employs fewer than 700,000.

But in recent months building firms have started hiring again. The sector created nearly 10,000 jobs in November, according to employment ministry figures published last week.

“It is mostly linked to a rise in public works,” said a spokesman for the National Confederation of Construction, which groups together the majority of Spain’s builders.

The tendency should continue next year since Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s budget for 2015 — when he faces local and legislative elections — calls for spending on infrastructure projects to increase by around six percent.

“There is a lot of optimism in the construction sector, in part because of the announcements that have already been made by the public works minister,” said Javier Vaca, director of business development at Spanish builder FCC.

The slight uptick in the sector is not limited to public works, with the building of private homes up slightly as well.

“The improvement in investment in the construction sector that has been noticed since the start of the year seems to have continued during recent months,” the Bank of Spain wrote in its latest bulletin at the end of November.

– ‘Inflection point’ –

Among the factors giving the sector a boost are low interest rates, easier household credit, a rise in the number of building permits issued and a return to modest economic growth, said Miguel Cardoso, chief economist at Spain’s second-largest bank BBVA.

“There are a series of factors that make us think that we have reached an inflection point,” he said.

The number of building permits issued in Spain during the first nine months of 2014 rose by 5.7 percent over the same period last year, according to BBVA.

Home building is up despite a huge stock of unsold homes because many of these empty dwellings are not in urban areas like Madrid and Barcelona where the economy is improving at a faster clip and demand is rising, Cardoso said.

Most of the empty new houses are found along Spain’s extensive coastline or in the interior of the country that were intended as holiday homes or secondary residences, he added.

These encouraging signs will not translate into a rise in the construction sector’s turnover this year, however.

Activity in the sector is expected to fall by 2.4 percent in 2014 before finally rising next year, according to a forecast from the Catalan Institute of Construction Technology (Itec).

It predicts activity will rise 1.8 percent next year before growing by 5.0 percent in 2017.

That is good news for a sector that suffered such a huge fall.

“We didn’t plunge into a cave, we fell down to the catacombs,” said Josep Ramon Fontana, a Spanish member of European construction business research group Euroconstruct.

The construction sector, which accounted for about 20 percent of Spain’s economic output in 2007, now represents just 5.0 percent of it, according to Itec.

Foreign investors have started to return to the sector. Mexican telecoms magnate Carlos Slim, the world’s second-richest man, announced last month that he will invest 650 million euros ($800 million) to become the main shareholder in Spanish builder FCC.

“This time the sector is not the cause of economic growth, it is growing because of economic growth,” Cardoso said.

LONDON, Nov 25, 2014 (AFP)
Lingering eurozone stimulus hopes lifted European stock markets on Tuesday, with sentiment buoyed also by upbeat German data and bumper gains elsewhere, dealers said.

London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index closed up just 0.02 percent to 6,731.14 points and the Paris CAC 40 index gained 0.32 percent to 4,382.31 compared with Monday’s close.

Frankfurt’s DAX 30 rose 0.77 percent to 9,861.21 points, as official data confirmed that the German economy grew 0.1 percent in the third quarter, narrowly avoiding a recession.

ECB chief Mario Draghi last week signalled readiness to act quickly to deter deflation, sparking fresh stimulus hopes.

The comments, combined with China’s surprise rate cut, gave markets a shot in the arm on Friday and have continued to boost share prices.

The French market was also lifted by better than expected data on business climate, with the national data institute reporting a three-point rise on the index to 94 although analysts had expected it to come in at 92.

Michelin topped the risers board, soaring 2.61 percent to 74.70 euros.

Credit Agricole was the next biggest gainer with a 2.49 percent jump to 11.12 euros.

“Stocks in Europe have been on a rip since Mario Draghi twice mentioned the prospects of further monetary easing in the eurozone last week and continued higher today” with the latest German data, said Jasper Lawler, an analyst at CMC.

Asian stock markets traded mixed Tuesday after a Chinese rate cut had fuelled a rally in the previous session, while Tokyo played catch-up following a long holiday weekend.

Tokyo rose 0.29 percent and Seoul was slightly higher, while Sydney shed 0.50 percent and Hong Kong slipped 0.21 percent lower.

However on the upside, Shanghai rallied 1.37 percent to close at 2,567.60 — the highest since August 2011 — following a 1.85-percent increase the previous day.

Monday’s surge came on the back of China’s surprise decision last week to slash interest rates for the first time in two years, in a bid to kickstart growth in the Asian powerhouse nation.

– ‘Be good, but not too good’ –

Wall Street stocks edged higher Tuesday in early trade, adding to Monday’s records after the Commerce Department unexpectedly raised its estimate for third-quarter US economic growth.

About 25 minutes into trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 17,826.92, up 9.02 points (0.05 percent).

The broad-based S&amp;P 500 gained 1.73 (0.08 percent) to 2,071.14, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index added 8.56 (0.18 percent) to 4,763.45.

“Where GDP numbers are concerned, it looks like a case of ‘be good, but not too good’, since any sign of overheating in the US is likely to bring the Fed hawks to the fore,” said Chris Beauchamp of the IG consultancy.

In London foreign exchange deals on Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.2474, up from $1.2439 late in New York on Monday.

The European single currency eased up to 79.35 British pence from 79.21 Monday. The British pound rose to $1.5718 from $1.5704.

In London, shares in Petrofac recovered to 891 pence after the British energy services group saw the price collapse by 26.45 percent on Monday following a gloomy profits warning that blamed slumping oil prices.

burs-rfj/gd/mjs

JAKARTA investor daily– Isu bahwa Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) berencana mengeluarkan stimulus moneter (quantitative easing/QE) seperti dilakukan Bank Sentral AS dan Bank Sentral Jepang turut memicu sentimen positif di lantai bursa. Hampir seluruh bursa saham regional menghijau pada perdagangan Senin (24/11). Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) melonjak 29,71 poin (0,58%) ke level 5.141.76.

Investor asing membukukan pembelian bersih (net buy) senilai Rp 142 miliar, sehingga net buy asing secara year to date mencapai Rp 49,3 triliun. Bersamaan dengan itu, rupiah di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta menguat 17 poin ke level Rp 12.129 per dolar AS.

Berdasarkan kurs tengah Bank Indonesia (BI), rupiah menguat ke posisi Rp 12.122 dari sebelumnya Rp 12.161 per dolar AS. Kalangan analis saham dan para pengelolahedge fund memperkirakan isu QE di Eropa bakal mendominasi sentimen di lantai bursa setidaknya hingga ECB mengumumkan angka inflasi, Jumat (28/11). Isu lain yang diperkirakan memengaruhi pergerakan harga saham ke depan di antaranya earning season (musim laporan keuangan emiten) dan window dressing (aksi para pengelola dana dan emiten untuk menaikkan harga saham demi memperbaiki tampilan portofolio).

Kecuali itu, pasar menunggu ‘kejutan’ lain bank sentral Tiongkok yang Jumat lalu (21/11) memangkas suku bunga acuan untuk pertama kalinya sejak Juni 2012. Meski sebagian analis memprediksi ECB kecil kemungkinan mengeluarkan stimulus moneter seperti QE di AS karena akan dianggap melanggar aturan dan bertentangan dengan garis politik di masing-masing negara zona eruo, sebagian analis lainnya yakin ECB akan menempuh kebijakan tersebut. Keyakinan itu muncul karena pertumbuhan ekonomi di Eropa tetap melambat dengan inflasi yang kelewat rendah.

Keyakinan itu semakin kuat setelah Gubernur ECB Mario Draghi pada pertemuan para bankir, akhir pekan lalu, mengisyaratkan ECB akan menempuh langkah-langkah terobosan demi mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi ke arah yang lebih kondusif. “Kami bakal menggunakan segala cara yang ada dan segenap mandat yang kami miliki untuk mengembalikan inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi ke jalur normal,” ujar Mario Draghi.

Baca selengkapnya di Investor Daily versi cetak di http://www.investor.co.id/pages/investordailyku/paidsubscription.php

 

NEW YORK, Nov 24, 2014 (AFP)
The euro strengthened against the dollar Monday after encouraging German economic data showed business confidence in Europe’s largest economy was pulling out of the doldrums.

The Ifo think tank said its closely watched Ifo business climate index for Germany rose for the first time in seven months in November, to 104.7 points from 103.2 points in October.

“The downturn in the German economy has ground to a halt for the moment at least,” Ifo chief Hans-Werner Sinn said.

The turnaround in the index helped to lift eurozone and US stock markets, as well as the euro.

“After a six-month slide, German business confidence staged a strong rebound in November, illustrating that any swan songs on the eurozone’s biggest economy came too early,” said ING DiBa economist Carsten Brzeski.

In the United States, investors awaited Tuesday’s latest government estimate of third-quarter US economic growth. Economists on average expected the Commerce Department’s initial estimate of a 3.5 percent expansion in gross domestic product will be pared to 3.2 percent.

“Revised US GDP data this Tuesday could activate some selling or profit-taking in the US dollar’s outstanding rally,” said Nawaz Ali of Western Union Business Solutions in a research note.

“The US dollar looks set to record its fifth straight month of gains against a currency basket this week; a run last seen in 2010.”
<pre> 2200 GMT Monday Friday
EUR/USD 1.2439 1.2390
EUR/JPY 147.10 145.88
EUR/CHF 1.2025 1.2011
EUR/GBP 0.7921 0.7916
USD/JPY 118.25 117.75
USD/CHF 0.9666 0.9693
GBP/USD 1.5704 1.5651
</pre>

 

LONDON, Nov 06, 2014 (AFP)
Europe’s main stock markets shot up and the euro dropped on Thursday as Mario Draghi signalled that the ECB was readying further monetary stimulus measures if needed to combat deflation and stagnation.

London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index picked up 0.38 percent to 6,503.71 points in afternoon trading, while Frankfurt’s DAX 30 won 1.03 percent to 9,411.68 points and in Paris the CAC 40 gained 0.82 percent to 4,242.86.

European equities had been broadly steady after the ECB and Bank of England had announced, as widely expected, that they were keeping interest rates at record lows.

Analysts had also been expecting Draghi to say already announced measures should be allowed to make an impact, but amid growing calls for action he signalled the central bank stands ready.

“The governing council has tasked ECB staff and the relevant Eurosystem committees with ensuring the timely preparation of further measures to be implemented, if needed,” Draghi told reporters.

Draghi’s comments followed a call by the OECD to overcome its reluctance and undertake quantitative easing given the very weak state of the eurozone economy and the risk of damaging deflation as inflation is running at just 0.4 percent.

“This should include a commitment to sizeable asset purchases (‘quantitative easing’) until inflation is back on track,” the OECD said, adding that the purchases could include government bonds, which the ECB has so far shunned due to political sensitivities in Europe about the central bank underwriting government spending.

Purchase of government bonds was the main element of the recently ended quantitive easing programme by the US Federal Reserve, and Japan last week stepped up its asset purchases in order to support growth.

The ECB has been focusing its monetary stimulus, designed to spur lending and investment by buying financial assets, on packages of loans known as asset-backed securities (ABS) and corporate bonds.

The ECB has said it could inject some one trillion euros ($1.25 trillion) into the economy in this manner.

Capital Economics Senior European Economist Jennifer McKeown had said before Draghi’s announcement that the ECB chief might discuss additional asset purchases.

She said that “a supportive stance from Mr Draghi could boost confidence and prompt a further helpful depreciation of the euro in the meantime.”

– Euro slumps –

The euro duly tumbled on Draghi’s comments to $1.2418 from $1.2484 late in New York on Wednesday.

The euro has shed about 7 percent of its value against the dollar in the past six months.

The European single currency slid to 78.06 British pence from 78.15 pence. But the British pound slid to $1.590 from $1.5973 on Wednesday.

On the London Bullion Market, gold prices gained to $1,144.50 an ounce from $1,142 an ounce on Wednesday.

Wall Street stocks Thursday opened slightly higher following a solid report on US jobless claims ahead of Friday’s major jobs report for October.

Five minutes into trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 17,510.70, up 0.15 percent. The broad-based S&amp;P 500 added 0.04 percent to stand at 2,024.31 while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.56 percent to 4,622.28.

Asian stock markets diverged on Thursday despite a strong lead from a record-high close on Wall Street as traders welcomed the Republican victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

Tokyo slipped 0.86 percent, giving up some of the more than 10 percent gained in the past week on the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing announcement.

Sydney slipped 0.21 percent but Seoul rose 0.26 percent.

Shanghai added 0.27 percent but Hong Kong closed down 0.20 percent.

burs-rl/bpc

BERLIN, Nov 06, 2014 (AFP)
Germany plans an additional 10 billion euros ($12 billion) in public investment by 2018, its finance minister said Thursday, amid calls by some EU partners to do more to help the eurozone economy.

“I will propose to the cabinet that we allocate additional means for public investment in the order of 10 billion euros” by 2018, Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters.

ECB Finds 25 Banks Failed Stress Test Including Paschi

Twenty-five banks including Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA failed a stress test led by the European Central Bank, which said almost half of them must act to raise more capital.

The central bank in Frankfurt identified a 25 billion-euro shortfall ($32 billion) for the region’s lenders, and said 12 of them have now raised enough funds. Eleven banks need more capital, including Monte Paschi with a gap of 2.1 billion euros.

“Although this should restore some confidence and stability to the market, we are still far from a solution to the banking crisis and the challenges facing the banking sector,” Colin Brereton, economic crisis response lead partner at PwC, said in an e-mailed statement. “The Comprehensive Assessment has bought time for some for Europe’s banks.”

That two-part exam, comprising an Asset-Quality Review of balance sheets as of Dec. 31, 2013, and a stress test, forms one pillar of the ECB’s drive to move the euro zone forward after half a decade of financial turmoil by making its impact on the banking system transparent. Banks will have from six to nine months to fill the gaps and have been urged to tap financial markets first.

The ECB’s stress test was conducted in tandem with the London-based European Banking Authority, which also released results today. The EBA’s sample largely overlaps the ECB’s, though it also contains banks from outside the euro area.

Italian Banks

The ECB assessment showed Italian banks in particular are in need of more funds as they cope with bad loans and the country’s third recession since 2008. Monte Paschi, Italy’s third-biggest bank, Banca Carige SpA and two other smaller cooperative lenders have a combined 3.3 billion-euro gap that must be replenished because the measures taken this year weren’t sufficient, the Bank of Italy said in a statement today.

“The minister is confident that the residual shortfalls will be covered through further market transactions and that the high transparency guaranteed by the Comprehensive Assessment will allow to easily complete such transactions,” Italy’s finance ministry said in a statement.

Of the 13 banks that the ECB identified as having not raised enough capital, two Greek ones are exempted because their repair plans are already in progress.

Business Models

“The Comprehensive Assessment allowed us to compare banks across borders and business models,” ECB Supervisory Board Chair Daniele Nouy said in a statement. “The findings will enable us to draw insights and conclusions for supervision going forward.”

The ECB said lenders will need to adjust their asset valuations by 48 billion euros, taking into account the reclassification of an extra 136 billion euros of loans as non-performing. The stock of bad loans in the euro-area banking system now stands at 879 billion euros, the report said.

Italian banks will have to implement the largest asset-value adjustments according to the findings of the review, equivalent to 12 billion euros. Greek banks will have to revalue by 7.6 billion euros, and German banks by 6.7 billion euros, the report showed.

Italian lenders were buffeted by the stress test, suffering a hit to capital of 35.5 billion euros, followed by French banks with 30.8 billion euros. German banks would see capital reduced by 27 billion euros in the stress scenario, the report said.

Under the simulated recession set out in the assessment’s stress test, banks’ common equity Tier 1 capital would be depleted by 263 billion euros, or by 4 percentage points. The median CET1 ratio — a key measure of financial strength — would therefore fall to 8.3 percent from 12.4 percent.

Nouy has said banks will be required to cover any capital shortfalls revealed by the assessment, “primarily from private sources.”

INILAH.COM, Chicago – Pertumbuhan dan aktivitas Bank Sentral Eropa selain mendorong kenaikan sejumlah saham di Wall Street, ternyata juga mendongkrak harga emas.

Emas berjangka di divisi COMEX New York Mercantile Exchange berakhir naik pada Selasa (22/10) atau Rabu pagi WIB, karena laporan menunjukkan bahwa Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) akan membeli obligasi korporasi untuk mendukung pertumbuhan.

Kontrak emas yang paling aktif untuk pengiriman Desember naik tujuh dolar AS, atau 0,56 persen, menjadi menetap di 1.251,7 dolar AS per ounce.

Emas naik untuk hari kedua berturut-turut karena sebuah laporan, mengutip sumber-sumber anonim, mengatakan ECB sedang mempertimbangkan pembelian obligasi korporasi di pasar sekunder dalam upaya untuk memerangi deflasi dan mungkin pihaknya memutuskan persoalan secepatnya Desember untuk memulai pembelian awal tahun depan.

ECB baru-baru ini telah meluncurkan serangkaian langkah-langkah untuk menambahkan lebih banyak stimulus bagi perekonomian, termasuk target operasi refinancing jangka panjang dan program-program baru untuk membeli langsung sekuritas berbasis aset dan obligasi.

Investor juga mempertimbangkan harapan bahwa Fed AS akan menunda kenaikan suku bunganya untuk beberapa waktu karena kekhawatiran tentang perlambatan pertumbuhan global sedang meningkat.

Ditambah lagi, ada beberapa kabar baik bagi ekonomi AS karena laporan dari Asosiasi Makelar Perumahan Nasional (NAR) yang berbasis di AS menunjukkan penjualan “existing home” (rumah yang sebelumnya telah dimiliki atau rumah yang sudah dibangun sebelumnya selama satu bulan atau dikenal juga dengan “home resales”) naik 2,4 persen pada September ke tingkat tahunan sebesar 5,17 juta.

Angka itu lebih baik dari yang diperkirakan dan juga merupakan laju tercepat sejauh ini di 2014.

Perak untuk pengiriman Desember naik 19,5 sen, atau 1,12 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 17,549 dolar AS per ounce. Platinum untuk pengiriman Januari naik 15,5 dolar AS, atau 1,22 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 1.283 dolar AS per ounce. (AFP)

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Perdebatan mengenai perlu tidaknya European Central Bank (ECB) menambah kucuran stimulus kembali memanas, setelah para pejabat tinggi bank sentral berbeda pandangan.

Anggota Dewan Gubernur ECB Jens Weidmann menuturkan ada risiko yang terkandung dalam operasi stimulus bank sentral. Menurutnya, dalam situasi genting seperti saat ini, peluang terjadinya kekeliruan semakin besar.

“Saya agak khawatir dengan bahaya yang ditimbulkan dari program (kucuran stimulus) ini. Bahaya itu adalah, kami membeli aset-aset dan surat utang dengan nilai yang terlalu tinggi (overpriced),” ungkap Presiden Bank Sentral Jerman (Deutsche Bundesbank) seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Sabtu (11/10/2014).

Jika itu terjadi, Weidmann menjabarkan bank sentral akan semakin terbebani dengan resiko yang sebelumnya ditanggung bank umum.

Sementara itu dalam pertemuan dewan gubernur terakhir bulan lalu Presiden ECB Mario Draghi memberi sinyal akan menambah kucuran stimulus sekitar 1 triliun euro (US$1,3 triliun).

Pertengahan pekan ini, International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengestimasi masih terdapat resiko finansial yang menggelayut area euro pascakrisis pada 2008.

Draghi menegaskan berulang-ulang jajarannya siap menambah stimulus jika diperlukan. “Kami siap mengubah besaran dan atau komposisi dari operasi yang kami lakukan, jika memang dibutuhkan.”

 

Editor : Linda Teti Silitonga

Khawatir Utang Portugal, Saham Eropa Berguguran
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Oleh: Charles MS
Pasar Modal – Senin, 10 Januari 2011 | 15:58 WIB

INILAH.COM, London – Saham Eropa jatuh untuk sesi kedua Senin (10/1), dengan sisa-sisa kekhawatiran terhadap utang zona euro dan krisis utang dari musim pendapatan awal AS yang mendorong investor untuk tetap berhati-hati.

Reuters melaporkan FTSEurofirst 300 indeks turun setelah jatuh 0,3 persen pada hari Jumat. “Krisis utang masih merupakan fitur yang melatarbelakangi kejatuhan saham. Kami melihat beberapa kekhawatiran akibat bunga utang yang terlalu besar yang harus dibayar Portugal dalam waktu dekat. Beberapa negara lain juga akan mendekati pembayaran utang mereka,” kata Keith Bowman, analis perusahaan ekuitas Hargreaves Lansdown.

Sebuah sumber senior di zona euro mengatakan tekanan meningkat kepada Portugal dari Jerman, Perancis dan negara-negara lain agar negara ini mencari bantuan keuangan dari Uni Eropa dan IMF untuk menghentikan penyebaran krisis utang di wilayah tersebut.

Investor juga tengah menunggu hasil pendapatan dari perusahaan aluminium terbesar AS, Alcoa pada Senin malam. Saham tambang merupakan saham terbesar yang turun akibat harga tembaga yang turun tajam. Stoxx 600 Eropa, indeks Bahan Dasar juga jatuh, sedangkan Xstrata turun. Saham Danisco naik 26 persen setelah perusahaan kelompok bahan kimia US DuPont menyatakan akan membeli perusahaan bahan makanan Denmark dan perusahaan enzim senilai US$5,8 miliar.

MASALAH EKONOMI INDONESIA: bukan RUP1AH … (2)

MANFAATken MOMENTUM PENUNDAAN KENAEKAN THE FED FUND RATE K 2016 dengan KEBIJAKSANAAN BI RATE DI BAWAH 6.5%

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oleh Eko B. Supriyanto

 

 

PEMERINTAH telah sepakat untuk memangkas besaran anggaran dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBN-P). Jumlahnya tak tanggung-tanggung, mencapai Rp47,5 triliun, termasuk di dalamnya anggaran untuk infrastruktur yang menjadi jualan pemerintahan Jokowi-JK.

Pemerintah terpaksa memotong anggaran karena penerimaan pajak tak sesuai dengan harapan. Daripada mengorbankan defisit anggaran yang lebih besar, selain akan melanggar batas defisit yang disepakati sebesar 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB), mau tak mau harus memotong pengeluaran. Tahap pertama pemotongan anggaran tidak termasuk pada anggaran wajib, seperti gaji atau subsidi pendidikan, tapi untuk hal-hal yang melekat pada perjalanan dinas dan seminar serta hal-hal lain seperti peninjauan proyek. Risiko akan lebih besar jika membiarkan defisit anggaran. Selain akan menekan nilai tukar rupiah, tentu harus mencari sumber-sumber penerimaan atau pemasukan, salah satunya akan berutang, baik utang dalam negeri maupun utang luar negeri. Defisit anggaran yang besar dengan sendirinya akan menekan nilai tukar rupiah. Repot.

Sudah tentu pemotongan anggaran ini akan berdampak ke mana-mana, termasuk ke sektor perbankan lewat sektor riil yang selama ini mendapat berkah anggaran. Apalagi, ekonomi Indonesia adalah ekonomi APBN. Karena itu, pemotongan anggaran akan membawa dampak yang tidak kecil bagi perbankan dan sektor riil.

Obat yang diberikan oleh Bank Indonesia (BI) ialah penurunan BI Rate menjadi 6,50% dari sebelumnya 6,75%. Penurunan BI Rate ini memberi sinyal bahwa inflasi akan terjaga pada kisaran 4% dan dunia usaha akan merasa lebih longgar dalam berinvestasi. Peningkatan investasi menjadi penting setelah anggaran tidak sesuai dengan harapan.

Langkah BI menurunkan BI Rate sudah menunjukkan arah yang benar, kendati respons BI Rate berupa penurunan suku bunga kredit akan terjadi setidaknya pada tiga bulan ke depan. Transmisi penurunan suku bunga oleh BI ini memang tidak serta-merta akan menggairahkan kredit, tapi setidaknya arahnya sudah benar.

Permintaan kredit perbankan yang relatif rendah (7%) bukan semata-mata karena tinggi atau rendahnya suku bunga. Menurut catatan Infobank Institute, salah satu hal terpenting ialah risiko kredit yang masih tinggi akibat penurunan harga komoditas dan pertambangan serta transportasi. Sektor komoditas dan pertambangan yang kini meninggalkan non-performing loan (NPL) yang relatif tinggi di bank-bank BUMN dan bank swasta besar.

Risiko kredit menjadi pertimbangan utama, selain dunia usaha sendiri yang juga tidak banyak memanfaatkan fasilitas kredit yang diberikan. Lihat saja angka undisbursed loan terus membesar. Di lain sisi, angka loan to deposit ratio (LDR) juga sudah mendekati 89,6% atau sudah diambang batas tinggi, 92%.

Pemotongan anggaran, terutama anggaran departemen untuk keperluan perjalanan dinas, seminar, dan rapat-rapat, tentu akan membawa efek yang besar bagi dunia perhotelan, agen perjalanan, dan trasportasi.
Sebenarnya pemerintah sendiri banyak berharap dari tax amnesty yang diharapkan sedikit banyak akan menghasilkan penerimaan. Namun, dengan pemotongan anggaran ini memberikan sinyal bahwa pemerintah sendiri tidak yakin akan keberhasilan tax amnesty karena sudah lebih awal melakukan pemotongan anggaran.
Kita tidak berharap tax amnesty ini gagal karena jika gagal akan terjadi banyak pemangkasan, yang salah satunya bisa subsidi-subsidi atau gaji pegawai yang tidak kita harapkan. Atau, akan menaikkan tarif pajak yang membuat dunia usaha makin tidak kondusif.

Jika demikian, ada baiknya tax amnesty ini terus didorong untuk segera diberlakukan, kendati masih banyak argumen di masyarakat tentang istilah bebas dari kejahatan pajak tapi tidak bebas kejahatan tindak pidana yang lain. Meski Menteri Keuangan menegaskan, bagi yang membocorkan data-data tax amnesty akan terkena tindak pidana, di Indonesia kredibilitas lembaga terutama menyangkut data-data bisa didapat dengan mudah.

Kondisi keuangan negara saat ini benar-benar berada dalam tepi jurang. Jika tahun-tahun sebelumnya ada pada risiko penyerapan, sekarang lebih mengerikan, yaitu risiko penerimaan. Ketidakpastian penerimaan akibat lesunya ekonomi dan penurunan harga komoditas dan pertambangan akan mendorong pengelolaan anggaran rawan defisit.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi sebelumnya makin membuat situasi berusaha makin tidak keruan. Para menteri yang membuat kebijakan-kebijakan parsial dengan data yang berbeda, seperti data sapi, data ikan, dan data beras, membuat para menteri saling membuat kebijakan akrobat. Impor daging tapi tidak membuat daging turun harganya. Di bilang surplus beras tapi tidak ada satu negara di dunia pun yang mengimpor beras kita.

Pada akhirnya pemotongan anggaran belanja telah memberi sinyal bahwa perekonomian Indonesia tidak akan sebagus tahun lalu. Bank-bank harus menyesuaikan diri dengan kondisi anggaran yang deg-degan ini. Penurunan suku bunga merupakan hal yang baik, tapi tidak otomatis akan menggenjot kredit, karena memang ekonomi Indonesia sedang rawan.

Selamat datang ekonomi cekak—ekonomi yang ketat dan bank-bank harus menekan banyak biaya sebagai konsekuensi dari penurunan pendapatan atas risiko kredit macet yang terus membesar. Lebih dari itu, perbankan membutuhkan kebijakan yang kredibel dan tak sekadar paket-paket yang entah bagaimana nasibnya. (*)

 

 

Penulis adalah Pimpinan Redaksi Infobank

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Menteri Koordinator bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution hari ini kembali melakukan rapat koordinasi (rakor) untuk membahas mengenai deregulasi. Rapat koordinasi ini merupakan untuk yang kesekian kalinya dilakukan oleh Darmin demi memuluskan efektivitas pelaksanaan paket kebijakan.

Pantauan Okezone, Selasa (21/6/2016), hingga pukul 09.30 WIB, rapat koordinasi ini telah dihadiri oleh Menteri Perdagangan Thomas Lembong, dan Menteri Dalam Negeri Tjahjo Kumolo. Dijadwalkan, rapat koordinasi ini nantinya juga akan dihadiri oleh perwakilan Kadin, Hipmi, Apindo, Bekraf, dan BKPM.

Seperti diketahui, pemerintah saat ini memang tengah fokus untuk memangkas regulasi pada berbagai daerah. Kebijakan ini ditujukan untuk mempermudah investor agar dapat berinvestasi pada berbagai daerah. Sehingga, target Indonesia sentris dalam hal pembangunan dapat tercapai.

Hingga saat ini, pemerintah telah menerbitkan 12 paket kebijakan. Hanya saja paket kebijakan tersebut baru efektif dirasakan oleh Jakarta dan Surabaya. Kedua daerah ini memang menjadi fokus pemerintah untuk menerapkan deregulasi karena menjadi daerah penilaian Bank Dunia untuk ease of doing business index atau indeks kemudahan berbisnis.

Untuk itu, demi menjamin terlaksananya aturan dalam paket kebijakan, khususnya dalam hal deregulasi, pemerintah telah membentuk kelompok kerja (pokja) guna memantau deregulasi saat ini mulai memberikan respon atau pengaruh yang baik. Pembentukan pokja ini diterapkan guna mengawal dan mempercepat realisasi paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid I-XII sehingga berjalan sesuai dengan keinginan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi).

Pokja tersebut selain efektif memberikan perkembangan penyelesaian regulasi yang belum selesai, kasus operasional, dan usulan deregulasi lanjutan, juga akan membahas usulan format evaluasi, agenda kampanye dan diseminasi kebijakan deregulasi ekonomi.

Sekadar informasi, berapa regulasi yang tadinya belum tunas, namun saat ini telah tuntas pada Juni 2016 adalah Permen ATR/Kepala BPN No.11/2016 tentang Penyelesaian Kasus Pertanahan, Permentan No.29/2016 tentang Pedoman Perizinan Usaha Perkebunan dan Permenaker No.20/2016 tentang Tata Cara Pemberian Sanksi Administratif.

Sedangkan, enam peraturan turunan atau petunjuk teknis yang telah tuntas antara lain dari BKPM tentang Inland FTA, Kementerian ESDM tentang penyediaan tenaga listrik dan pemasangan converter kit, Kementerian ATR/BPN tentang hunian orang asing, Kementerian PUPR tentang pengusahaan sumber daya air dan Kementerian Pertanian tentang pelaksanaan impor ternak.

Akan tetapi, masih terdapat 20 peraturan petunjuk teknis paket kebijakan ekonomi yang belum tuntas di beberapa kementerian terkait serta enam regulasi turunan yang sedang menunggu pembahasan dan harmonisasi. Sehingga penerbitannya masih tertunda pada Juni 2016.

Guna mendorong percepatan regulasi yang belum terbit, rapat evaluasi dan Pokja akan dilakukan secara konsisten setiap minggu agar pelaksanaan paket kebijakan ekonomi dapat lebih efektif.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/06/21/20/1420873/menko-darmin-kumpulkan-menteri-muluskan-12-paket-kebijakan-ekonomi
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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KONTAN: Keputusan Bank Indonesia (BI) menurunkan suku bunga acuan atawa BI rate sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 6,5% merupakan salah satu upaya  mempercepat penurunan suku bunga perbankan. Suku bunga, khususnya suku bunga kredit,  diharapkan bisa kembali turun ke bawah 10%.

Tapi pemilihan waktu  memangkas BI rate kurang tepat lantaran dampaknya baru akan terasa minimal tiga bulan ke depan. Sebab, menjelang Lebaran masyarakat lebih membutuhkan uang tunai. Sehingga perbankan cenderung berusaha memenuhi untuk likuiditas tersebut.

Alhasil, penurunan BI rate ini tidak akan langsung ditanggapi perbankan segera memangkas bunga. Jadi, penurunan BI rate di tengah banyaknya permintaan uang tunai lebih berdampak netral atau minim.

Efeknya baru terasa setelah mudik, itupun jika likuiditas bank memadai. Padahal tujuan penurunan BI rate agar suku bunga perbankan turun, sehingga ekonomi bisa bergerak dan masyarakat bisa mengajukan kredit.

Jika BI ingin mendapat dampak lebih besar, seharusnya lebih agresif. Yakni dengan menurunkan BI rate 50 bps dan bulan depan turun lagi 75 bps.

Sebenarnya langkah BI ini bisa dimaklumi, mengingat masih banyak ketidakpastian dalam penerimaan negara. Mulai dari belum jelasnya nasib kebijakan pengampunan pajak atawa tax amnesty.

Menyusul, Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (RAPBN-P) 2016 yang masih dibahas. Jadi, masih banyak pengeluaran pemerintah yang tertunda.

Sementara itu, langkah BI melakukan relaksasi pada aturan loan to value (LTV) sudah tepat. Pelonggaran kebijakan di sektor properti ini diperlukan kala ekonomi melambat.

Apalagi sektor properti memiliki tingkat kredit bermasalah atawa non performing loan (LTV) rendah. Diharapkan dengan relaksasi LTV ini kemampuan masyarakat untuk membeli rumah kembali bangkit. Tapi yang perlu diingat, dampak pelonggaran LTV baru kelihatan dalam enam bulan.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Empat perguruan tinggi negeri bertengger sebagai empat universitas terbaik di  Indonesia  dalam riset 11 universitas terbaik Indonesia 2016 dari Quacquarelli Symonds. Uniknya, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta mampu mengalahkan Universitas Brawijaya Malang.

Lembaga pemeringkat perguruan tinggi dunia Quacquarelli Symonds (http://www.qs.com) hari ini merilis hasil survei  peringkat universitas Asia 2016 dengan tajuk QS University Ranking: Asia 2016.

Penentuan peringkat 11 universitas terbaik Indonesia didasarkan pada peringkat universitas di Indonesia di kancah peringkat Asia.

Hasilnya, 11 perguruan tinggi terbaik Indonesia 2016 secara berturut-turut adalah: Universitas Indonesia, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Universitas Airlangga, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Universitas Padjadjaran,  Universitas Diponegoro, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Universitas Brawijaya, dan Universitas Bina Nusantara.

11 Universitas Terbaik Indonesia di Kancah Asiah

No. Ranking Asia 2016 Perguraan Tinggi
1 67 Universitas Indonesia (Jakarta)
2 86 Institut Teknologi Bandung (Bandung)
3 105 Universitas Gadjah Mada (Jogjakarta)
4 190 Universitas Airlangga (Surabaya)
5 191 Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB)
6 199 Universitas Padjadjaran (Bandung)
7 231-240 Universitas Diponegoro (Semarang)
8 251-300 Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (Surabaya)
9 251-300 Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta (Solo)
10 301-350 Universitas Brawijaya (Malang)
11 301-350 Universitas Bina Nusantara (Jakarta)

Sumber: Riset Quacquarelli Symonds

Peringkat UI, ITB, UGM meningkat signifikan. Peringkat UI meningkat dari 79 tahun lalu menjadi 67, ITB melejit dari 122 ke 86, dan UGM dari 137 ke 135.

Dua universitas negeri lain yang mengalami lompatan peringkat adalah IPB dari 211-220 ke 190 dan Undip dari 261-270 ke 231-240.

Ada pun universitas negeri yang mengalami penurunan peringkat secara drastis adalah Universitas Padjajaran dari 168 ke 199.

“Perguruan tinggi lain yang masuk peringkat tahun ini adalah Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember dan Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta di kelompok peringkat 251-300 serta Universitas Brawijaya dan Universitas Bina Nusantara di kelompok peringkat 301-350,” tulis laporan laporan QS University Rankings: Asia 2016 tersebut.

Penetapan peringkat perguruan tinggi tersebut didasarkan pada hasil riset Quacquarelli Symonds (http://www.qs.com) dengan menggunakan 9 indikator untuk menyusun peringkat 350 universitas Asia 2016. Rinciannya sebagai berikut.

1.Reputasi akademis (bobot 30%)

Survei dilakukan ke kalangan akademisi kampus di setiap jurusan/pogram studi untuk mengukur kekuatan jurusan/program studi tersebut

2.Reputasi karyawan (bobot 10%)

Mensurvei karyawan administrasi perguruan tinggi untuk mengukur kualitas layanan administasi perguruan tinggi.

3.Rasio fakultas/mahasiswa (bobot 20%)

Dihitung dari rasio jumlah dosen dengan jumlah mahasiswa yang lulus dari setiap program studi di perguruan tinggi

4.Penghargaan hasil riset (bobot 15%)

Indikatornya adalah jumlah riset ilmiah perguruan tinggi yang mendapatkan penghargaan sebagai tolok ukur reputasi karya ilmiah tersebut, yang dianalisis dengan program Scopus.

5. Jumlah riset ilmiah per fakultas (bobot 15%)

Dengan menggunakan aplikasi Scopus, jumlah riset ilmiah per fakultas dikalkulasi menjadi skor dengan bobot penilaian 15%.

6-7. Proporsi fakultas internasional (2,5%) dan mahasiswa internasional (2,5%)

Indikator ini menganalisis jumlah program studi internasional yang ada di perguruan tinggi tersebut.

Sementara itu, pengukuran jumlah mahasiswa program studi internasional itu dilihat dari rasio jumlah mahasiswa internasional dibandingkan dengan pegawai administrasi PT sebagai penentu kualitas layanan administrasi program studi internasional tersebut.

8-9.Proporsi pertukaran mahasiswa ke luar negeri (2,5%) dan proporsi penerimaan pertukaran mahasiswa dari luar negeri.

Indikator ini dilihat dari jumlah mahasiswa yang dikirim ke luar negeri dalam rangka program pertukaran mahasiswa serta penerimaan mahasiswa dari luar negeri dalam rangka program tersebut.

Dari 9 indiaktor itu, Quacquarelli Symonds kemudian memeringkat 350 universitas di Asia 2016. Peringkatnya bertambah 50 universitas dibandingkan dengan riset  QS University Ranking: Asia 2015 yang hanya memeringkat 300 universitas.

Apakah ini berarti Quacquarelli Symonds hanya mensurvei  11 perguruan tinggi di Indonesia. Simona Bizzozero, Kepala Humas Quacquarelli Symonds, menegaskan lembaga survei global itu melakukan kajian terhadap seluruh universitas di Indonesia.

“Hanya 11 universitas itulah yang memenuhi  9 indikator itu dengan tiga kriteria dari kami,” ujarnya melalui surat elektronik kepada Bisnis.

Simona menyebutkan tiga kriteria adalah (1) memiliki program studi sarjana dan pasca sarjana; (2) menggelar riset minimal di dua dari program studi seni & humaniora, ilmu alam, ilmu hidup, ilmu sosial, serta teknologi & rekayasa; (3) disurvei dari dari responden staf pengajar dan staf administrasi secara global.

Peringkat Asia

Berdasarkan peringkat itu, Universitas Nasional Singapura masih bertengger di peringkat teratas dan tak tergoyahkan selama tiga tahun berturut-turut sejak 2014.

Yang cukup menyolok dari hasil riset itu adalah kinerja Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) yang ajlok ke peringkat ke-6 Asia. Padahal dalam survei  QS University Ranking: Asia 2015, universitas kebanggan rakyat Korsel itu menempati peringkat ke-3.

Sementara itu Tsinghua University melejit dari peringkat  ke-11 tahun lalu menjadi peringkat ke-5 tahun ini.

Peringkat 20 Universitas Terbaik Asia 2016

Ranking 2016 2015 Universitas Negara
1 1 National University of Singapore (NUS) Singapura
2 2 University of Hong Kong (HKU) Hong Kong
3 4 Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapura
4 5 The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) Hong Kong
5 11 Tsinghua University China
6 3 KAIST – Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Korea Selatan
7 9 City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong
8 6 The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) Hong Kong
9 7 Peking University China
10 8 Seoul National University (SNU) Korea Selatan
11 16 Fudan University China
12 10 Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) Korea Selatan
13 12 The University of Tokyo Jepang
14 15 Tokyo Institute of Technology Jepang
15 14 Kyoto University Jepang
16 19 Korea University Korea Selatan
17 13 Osaka University Jepang
18 18 Yonsei University Korea Selatan
19 17 Sungkyunkwan University Korea Selatan
20 20 Tohoku University Jepang

Sumber: Riset Quacquarelli Symonds

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ID: Ekonom UGM Mudrajad Kuncoro menjelaskan, ke-12 paket kebijakan ekonomi yang telah diterbitkan pemerintah belum sepenuhnya menjawab akar masalah yang dihadapi dunia usaha dan masyarakat.

Faktanya, berdasarkan laporan Doing Business Bank Dunia tahun ini, memulai bisnis di Indonesia masih membutuhkan 13 prosedur, memakan waktu 46,5 hari, memakan biaya hingga 19,4% dari pendapatan per kapita, dan memerlukan modal minimal yang dibayar 31% dari pendapatan per kapita.

”Meskipun waktu lebih pendek, biayanya semakin mahal,” ujar Guru Besar Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ketua Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi Program Doktor FEB UGM itu.

Menurut Mudrajad, langkah pemerintah yang menerbitkan banyak paket kebijakan dan perencanaan layak diapresiasi. Namun, kekurangan pemerintah juga perlu dikoreksi, seperti implementasi, pemantauan, dan sanksi yang kurang.

”Saya usulkan, pemerintah pusat dan pemda melakukan perubahan bersama-sama agar tidak terjadi tumpang-tindih kebijakan yang kontraproduktif terhadap dunia usaha,” ucap dia.

Kebersamaan pemerintah pusat dan daerah dalam pengambilan keputusan, kata Mudrajad, diarahkan untuk memberikan jawaban konkret setidaknya atas tiga hal utama yang diinginkan investor dan pengusaha, yakni penyederhanaan sistem dan perizinan, penurunan berbagai pungutan yang tumpang tindih, serta transparansi biaya perizinan.

”Tumpang tindih peraturan pusat dan daerah tidak hanya menghambat arus barang dan jasa, tetapi juga menciptakan iklim bisnis yang tidak sehat. Prioritas perlu diberikan pada deregulasi, debirokratisasi, dan koordinasi berbagai perda dan peraturan yang dikeluarkan pemerintah pusat,” papar dia. (mam/ths/az/gor)

Baca selanjutnya di

http://id.beritasatu.com/macroeconomics/birokrat-jadi-predator-belum-jadi-fasilitator/144582

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INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution mengatakan bahwa ekonomi Indonesia selama 2 tahun kebelakang ini memang menghadapi ekonomi yang sulit, dari rendahnya harga minyak dunia, harga komoditas dan pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah.

“Kita tengah melalui banyak hal yang tidak kita temui di masa lalu, ekonomi Indonesia, betul-betul mencoba menemukan taking chance, bagaimana menemukan kesempatan cara agar tidak terbawa arus perlambatan ekonomi dunia, dan itulah yang betul-betul diusahakan dalam 1-2 tahun terakhir ini,” kata Darmin saat membuka forum tahunan Indonesia Petroleum Assosiation (IPA) ke-41 di Jakarta, Rabu (25/5/2016).

Darmin mengatakan selama 2 tahun terkhir ini ekonomi Indonesia menghadapi ekonomi yang cukup sulit. Namun pemerintah berusaha keras untuk meredam gejolak ekonomi tersebut yang akan berdampak lebih besar terhadap Indonesia.

“Kita mengatakan bahwa dalam 2 tahun terakhir kita sulit menghadapi perlambatan yang terjadi, atas dasar itu pemerintah mencoba meletakkan dasar-dasar untuk membalikkan arah perlambatan tersebut, kita mencatat pemerintah betul-betul berusaha mengundang investor,” paparnya.

Tak hanya itu kata pria kelahiran Tapanuli Sumatera Utara ini, pemerintah juga telah menelorkan selusin paket kebijakan ekonomi yang berperan mederegulasi dan membirokritisasi segala aspek kemudahan berimvestasi untuk memberikan stimulus ekonomi.

“Sampai hari ini pemerintah sudah menerbitkan 12 paket deregulasi, termasuk di dalamnya pelonggraran DNI maupun EODB, di Indonesia, dua hal itu yang merupakan backbone dua tahun terakhir, dan kita patutu bersyukur bahwa tendensi turun itu sudah mulai bisa kita belokkan,” katanya.

“Namun belum cukup membanggakan akan tetapi pertumbuhan ekonomi kita tidak lagi terus menurun, kita mulai dengan 4,9 persen kuartal I di 2016,” tandasnya. [hid]

– See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2298071/menko-darmin-sebut-2-tahun-ekonomi-di-masa-sulit#sthash.FyjRtrOB.dpuf

 doraemon

Jakarta  detik-Sudah 12 paket kebijakan ekonomi yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Namun sayangnya, belum semua paket dapat terealisasi akibat beberapa peraturan pelaksanaan yang belum diterbitkan.

Demikianlah diungkapkan Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution usai rapat kabinet terbatas di Istana Negara, Jakarta, Selasa (24/5/2016).

“Kita kemudian melihat betul memang deregulasinya itu misalnya Peraturan Presiden. Memang betul di situ tidak dikatakan harus dibuat peraturan pelaksanaannya. Tapi ketika kita baca ternyata dia perlu peraturan pelaksanaan. Kalau nggak, nggak bisa dilaksanakan,” jelasnya.

Darmin tidak dapat mengungkapkan secara rinci. Akan tetapi setidaknya ada 26 Peraturan Menteri sebagai turunan dari Perpres yang harus diterbitkan. Selanjutnya perlu ada koordinasi lebih lanjut dengan Kementerian/Lembaga (K/L).

“Itu ada 26 Peraturan Menteri yang harus terbit. Ini pun sudah kita komunikasikan dengan KL dan proses sedang berlangsung,” ujar Darmin.

Dalam 12 paket kebijakan tersebut ada 203 aturan yang seharusnya telah diterbitkan namun hingga sekarang baru 194 peraturan yang diterbitkan meliputi PP, Perpres, Permen dan lainnya. Artinya masih ada 9 peraturan yang belum selesai.

Berikut daftar paket kebijakan yang telah terealisasi :

  • Paket 1 : 124 peraturan, selesai 97%
  • Paket 2 : 15 peraturan, selesai 100%
  • Paket 3 : 8 peraturan, selesai 100%
  • Paket 4 : 10 peraturan, selesai 80%
  • Paket 5 : 3 peraturan, selesai 100%
  • Paket 6 : 5 peraturan, selesai 100%
  • Paket 7 : 5 peraturan selesai 80%
  • Paket 8 : 3 peraturan selesai 100%
  • Paket 9 : 7 peraturan selesai 71%
  • Paket 10: 1 peraturan selesai 100%
  • Paket 11 : 5 peraturan, selesai 80%
  • Paket 12 : 17 peraturan, selesai 100%

(mkl/feb)

doraemon

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia has eased foreign ownership rules in the retail sector and port services as part of efforts to liberalise its economy, South-east Asia’s largest.

President Joko Widodo signed revised investment regulations, which spell out which sectors are partially closed or entirely closed to foreign investors, last week and it took effect immediately, according to a copy uploaded to a government website on Tuesday (May 24).

The government announced the revision to rules on foreign ownership – its so-called negative investment list – in February, saying it has decided to loosen restrictions on everything from restaurant to agriculture, transportation and movie theatres.

However, the new regulation set a 49 per cent foreign ownership cap on small e-commerce businesses, contradicting the government’s earlier statement that it will open the sector 100 per cent to foreign money.

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JAKARTA kontan. Pasar merespon sinyal bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve yang mungkin menaikkan bunga Juni mendatang. Rupiah sore ini, Kamis (19/5), ditutup terdepresiasi 1,38% menjadi Rp 13.565 per dollar AS. 

Pelemahan Rupiah dikhawatirkan berimbas pada langkah pemerintah menutup defisit anggaran dengan menerbitkan surat berharga negara (SBN), terutama yang dalam bentuk mata uang valuta asing. Dengan tertekannya mata uang Garuda, dihawatirkan mendorong yield atau imbal hasil SBN menjadi lebih tinggi.

Akan tetapi, Direktur Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko (PPR) Kementerian Keuangan Robert Pakpahan mengaku tidak terlalu khawatir. Sebab, penerbitan SBN sudah dilakukan di awal tahun, atau menggunakan strategi front loading.

Jadi, sebagian besar kebutuhan pembiayaan sudah terpenuhi. Kecuali jika terjadi pelebaran defisit anggaran, yang membuat jumlah pembiayaan bertambah.

Terkait ini, Robert mengatakan kondisi pelemahan Rupiah belum tentu akan bertahan lama. “Pada saat penerbitan semoga sudah kembali,” kata Robert, Kamis (19/5) di Jakarta.

Ada dua alasan Robert merasa aman dari ancaman pelemahan Rupiah. Pertama, peluang meningkatnya status rating utang pemerintah menurut lembaga Standard & Poor’s (S&P) menjadi investment grade.

Meski belum pasti, tetapi dengan berbagai pencapaian dan manajemen risiko yang dimiliki pemerintah, seharusnya S&P tidak ragu untuk menaikan rating Indonesia. Apalagi, Indonesia memiliki Bilateral Swap Arrangement (BSA) untuk mengantisipasi aksi jual SBN.

Kedua, pemerintah akan mengeluarkan kebijakan pengampunan pajak, alias tax amnesty. Kebijakan ini dipercaya bisa menambah likuiditas yang cukup besar ke pasar keuangan dan surat utang.

Jika ada tambahan likuiditas, maka permintaan akan instrumen investasi tinggi. Dengan begitu maka harga semua instrumen akan meningkat, akibatnya yield akan tertekan.

Kedua hal tadi dipercaya bisa mengopset atau menutupi dampak negatif dari kebijakan The Fed jika benar-benar menaikan Fed fund rate pada Juni mendatang.

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Pemerintah Yakin Pembiayaan Aman Hadapi Ancaman The Fed

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan produksi industri manufaktur setahun terakhir mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 4,08 persen untuk industri sedang dan besar, dan tumbuh 5,91 persen untuk industri mikro dan kecil.

Kepala BPS Suryamin menuturkan untuk industri sedang dan besar ada empat industri yang mengalami pertumbuhan produksi signifikan.

Produksi industri farmasi, produk obat kimia dan obat tradisional pada kuartal-I 2016 naik 10,5 persen dibandingkan kuartal-I 2015.

“Porsi atau share industri farmasi , produk obat kimia dan obat tradisional naik sebesar 0,54 persen,” kata Suryamin dalam paparan BPS di Jakarta, Senin (2/5/2016).

Produksi barang galian bukan logam pada kuartal-I 2016 juta naik sebesar 8,58 persen dibandingkan kuartal-I 2015. Share barang galian bukan logam dalam industri manufaktur sedang dan besar mencapai 2,1 persen.

Adapun produksi logam dasar pada kuartal-I 2016 naik 7,61 persen dibandingkan kuartal-I 2015, di mana share industri ini sebesar 4,22 persen.

“Makanan yang memiliki share terbesar yakni 26,85 persen, produksi manufakturnya juga tumbuh 4,54 persen,” imbuh Suryamin.

Di level industri mikro dan kecil, pertumbuhan produksi terbesar terjadi pada komputer, barang elektronika, dan optik yang naik 24,26 persen dibandingkan kuartal-I 2015.

Selain itu, mesin dan perlengkapan YTDL (yang tidak termasuk dalam lainnya) juga naik 24,17 persen. “Percetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman naik 23,31 persen” kata Suryamin.

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Metrotvnews.com, Balikpapan: Kementerian bidang Perekonomian menyatakan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi XII sebagai kelanjutan deregulasi ekonomi di Indonesia akan memfokuskan kemudahan berusaha.

“Kami punya fokus setiap kali (mengeluarkan kebijakan). Kemarin (Paket Jilid XI) fokusnya logistik, sedangkan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi XII adalah bagaimana menciptakan kemudahan berusaha,” kata Deputi Bidang Koordinasi Perniagaan dan Industri Kemenko Perekonomian, Eddy Putra Irawady, usai Inseminasi dan Diseminasi Paket Kebijakan Perekonomian, di Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur, seperti dikutip dari Antara, Kamis (21/4/2016).

Eddy mengatakan Paket Kebijakan Jilid XII ini untuk meningkatkan daya beli masyarakat, meningkatkan daya saing industri, meningkatkan investasi, dan penguatan komoditas ekspor. Menurutnya, usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) masih dibebankan dengan adanya perizinan, sertifikasi dan proses birokrasi lainnya yang menjadi hambatan berusaha.

Selain itu, paket kebijakan yang segera diumumkan oleh  pemerintah ini selalu ada keberlanjutan dari paket sebelumnya yang telah dilakukan. Terkait kebijakan sebelumnya, pemerintah pada 29 Maret 2016 mengumumkan Kebijakan Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) untuk pelaku usaha mikro kecil dan menengah (UMKM) yang berorientasi ekspor.

“Kemungkinan Paket XIII nanti akan masuk pada investasi dan logistik lagi. Kita akan lihat, kalau ada hambatan kita ubah,” ujar Eddy.

Namun demikian, ia menegaskan pemahaman kebijakan selalu terkendala terkait penjelasan detail oleh pelaksana kebijakan sehingga ada perbedaan implementasi antara pusat dan daerah. Oleh karenanya, pemerintah daerah, Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) setempat harus memahami setiap Paket Kebijakan yang dikeluarkan pemerintah untuk dievaluasi.

Seperti yang telah diberitakan, Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution akan mengumumkan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi XII setelah mendampingi kunjungan kerja Presiden Joko Widodo ke Eropa. “Pulang dari Eropa kita akan keluarkan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi XII,” kata Darmin.

Darmin menyebutkan dalam pertemuan dengan Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel dan para pebisnis, Presiden Jokowi menyatakan pemerintah Indonesia menekankan tiga hal yaitu percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur, reformasi struktural atau deregulasi dan peningkatan kualitas SDM.

http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/makro/nbwdGamk-paket-kebijakan-ekonomi-xii-fokus-di-kemudahan-berusaha
Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM

spiral

Everybody seems to be betting big on Indonesia as the country of the future in Asia. Even as they do, some executives in Jakarta are returning to the past, using interpretations of the law to leave international bills unpaid.

Indonesia was the best performer among countries represented in an Asia dollar bond index from Merrill Lynch in the first quarter, and its equity market closed the period as the region’s third-best gainer. Bond investors who stayed the course through volatility made a 7.6 percent return.

In the same quarter, however, companies dealt major blows to foreign creditors using tactics that might make an aggressive New York lawyer cringe. In January, advisers for the cellphone retailer PT Trikomsel managed to get a court decision that effectively dismissed any claims from foreign creditors, among them holders of S$215 million ($159 million) of notes sold in Singapore. On Friday, Reuters reported that a Jakarta judge excluded Standard Chartered from a creditor list and raised questions about the validity of the bank’s claims to recoup a $1 billion loan made to tycoon Samin Tan’s coal miner Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal.

Sorry, Can’t Pay You
Indonesian defaults on offshore debt have been accelerating
Source: Bloomberg

According to Debtwire, the strategy being used against Standard Chartered could be extended to other loans to miners, in the same way that Trikomsel’s tactic has been used before against bondholders. In summary: Foreign money is welcome, but if borrowers have trouble paying, lenders have no right to sue.

The Trikomsel strategy was first employed by Asia Pulp and Paper, which in 2001 recorded the biggest debt default in the region’s history. APP’s bonds were sold by an offshore special purpose vehicle, which extended the cash to the parent through an intercompany loan — a common occurrence in Indonesia. When restructuring started, judges in Jakarta said the shell subsidiary lending the money had a vote on how creditors would be repaid, but those who bought the bonds from it didn’t.

Standard Chartered is being dogged by a requirement that mining companies, which are regulated by the government, request authorization before they do deals. Such regulatory blessing was ignored in good times. The rule has been recalled to suit borrowers struggling with payments. If other miners use the same tactic, Standard Chartered could be looking at much larger losses.

The bank won’t be alone, however. From regional institutions such as Singapore’s DBS to global powerhouses like Credit Suisse, lending to Indonesian resources companies used to be a great way to drive revenues.

What’s happening now is a reminder that while Indonesian law is as good as that in many Western countries, the legal environment and judges’ interpretations don’t always conform to what might be expected in New York, or even nearby in Singapore. As they ride the latest wave of optimism about the country, investors would do well to set aside some of their gains to ensure they have the best legal advice.

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JAKARTA okezone – Bocornya dokumen Panama Papers diragukan oleh Direksi PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Pasalnya beberapa nama orang Indonesia yang masuk dalam daftar tersebut ternyata dalam kondisi finansial yang kurang baik.

Direktur Transaksi dan Kepatuhan BEI Hamdi Hassyarbani mengaku memiliki teman yang namanya masuk ke dalam daftar tersebut. Namun, sepengetahuannya, kondisi finansial dari kerabatnya tersebut sangat jauh dari gambaran sosok oknum ‘pengemplang’ pajak yang seharusnya bergelimang harta.

“Saya agak meragukan data itu. Karena ada beberapa orang yang sebetulnya secara finansial tidak pantas masuk ke situ. Saya punya teman yang kondisinya pas-pasan, malah ekonominya jelek, tapi namanya masuk,” ujarnya di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Rabu (6/4/2016).

Menurut Hamdi, teman yang tidak mau disebutkan namanya tersebut hanya dimanfaatkan namanya untuk membuat perusahaan formalitas yang hanya digunakan untuk menyimpan dana guna menghindari pajak di Indonesia.

“Itu teman dekat saya sendiri. Saya hubungi dia, kok nama kamu masuk? ‘Iya dulu nama saya pernah dipinjam untuk set up company’. Mungkin dulu namanya pernah di pinjam untuk bikin paper company. Jadi namanya muncul. Makanya saya lihat namanya aneh-aneh,” imbuhnya.

(Baca Juga: Menkeu Bakal Investigasi Dokumen Panama Papers)

Kendati meragukan data Panama Papers tersebut, Hamdi tidak memungkiri jika sebagian nama orang Indonesia yang masuk dalam daftar tersebut memang berniat untuk menyimpan dana di wilayah tax heaven tersebut.

“Mungkin sebagian ada yang benar, orang yang tujuannya untuk mengakali pajak, tapi enggak semuanya juga. Jadi integritas datanya meragukan. Sepertinya mereka hanya mengambil nama-nama yang pernah masuk di perusahaan-perusahaan formalitas di sana,” katanya.

“Kasihan orang-orang yang namanya hanya dipakai untuk setup company kemudian namanya masuk ke situ. Padahal secara finansial orangnya tidak sesuai,” tambah dia.

(mrt)

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JAKARTA. Menteri Koperasi dan UKM AAGN Puspayoga akan mendorong para pelaku  koperasi dan UMKM berbasis ekspor untuk memanfaatkan program Kredit  Usaha Rakyat Berorientasi Ekspor (KURBE).

Puspayoga, mengatakan KURBE sebagai bagian dari paket kebijakan XI yang baru saja diumumkan pemerintah  diharapkan bisa menjadi solusi masalah pembiayaan Usaha Mikro, Kecil,  dan Menengah (UMKM).

“Selama ini upaya untuk mengekspor produk UMKM masih terkendala, terutama masalah  pembiayaan, serta masalah dalam kapasitas UMKM yang menyangkut Sumber  Daya Manusia, pemasaran, dan pemenuhan standar perdagangan internasional yang ketat,” katanya dalam keterangan resmi yang diterima Bisnis.com, Rabu (30/3/2016).

KURBE, kata dia,  akan menjadi instrumen yang menyediakan fasilitas pembiayaan ekspor yang lengkap dan terpadu untuk modal kerja dan investasi bagi UMKM. Ke depanÂ

Puspayoga berharap KURBE dapat memberikan stimulus kepada UMKM untuk  meningkatkan ekspor nasional. KURBE juga diharapkan bisa meningkatkan  daya saing produk ekspor UMKM berbasis kerakyatan serta meningkatkan  kualitas dan nilai tambah produk ekspor.

KURBE sendiri  sesuai paket kebijakan XI akan menyediakan fasilitas pembiayaan ekspor  yang lengkap dan terpadu untuk modal kerja (Kredit Modal Kerja  Ekspor/KMKE) dan investasi (Kredit Investasi Ekspor/KIE) bagi UMKM.

Selain itu juga  penyaluran pembiayaan kepada skala UMKM yang berorientasi ekspor (UMKM  Ekspor), dilakukan oleh Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia/LPEI  (Indonesia Eximbank).

KURBE ditetapkan dengan tingkat suku bunga sebesar 9% p.a efektif (tanpa subsidi).

“Sedangkan untuk KURBE mikro maksimal plafond sebesar Rp5 miliar.”

Sementara KURBE  kecil maksimal Rp25 miliar dan KURBE menengah maksimal Rp50 miliar  dengan jangka Waktu KURBE paling lama 3 tahun untuk KMKE dan/atau 5  tahun untuk KIE.

KURBE menyasar  utamanya para supplier/plasma yang menjadi penunjang industri dan  industri/usaha dengan melibatkan tenaga kerja yang cukup banyak sesuai dengan skala usahanya.

http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20160330/87/532611/paket-kebijakan-xi-manfaatkan-kurbe-kemenkop-dorong-umkm-berbasis-ekspor-
Sumber : BISNIS.COM

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RMOL. Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 yang dirilis World Economics Forum (WEF) memperlihatkan daya saing Indonesia berada di peringkat 37 yang sebelumnya nangkring di peringkat 34.

Peringkat Indonesia masih kalah dari tiga negara tetangganya, yakni Singapura di peringkat 2, Malaysia peringkat 18 dan Thailand di peringkat 32. Kendati begitu, Indonesia masih berada di atas Filipina (37), Vietnam (56), Laos (83), Kamboja (90) dan Myanmar (131).

Demikian dipaparkan Menteri Ketenagakerjaan, Hanif Dhakiri di hadapan para Rektor Perguruan Tinggi dalam acara Rakernis Balitbang Bidang Ketenagakerjaan, di Gedung Kemenaker, Jakarta Selatan, Senin, (21/3).

Menurut dia, pendapatan Indonesia mencapai puncaknya pada tahun 2012, yakni sebesar 3.701 dolar AS per kapita. Namun terus menurun hingga tahun 2014.

“Dari sisi kualitas, tenaga kerja Indonesia masih didominasi oleh yang pendidikan rendah,” ujar Hanif.

Hanif juga menyebutkan penduduk usia muda (15-24) tahun yang terjun ke pasar kerja, yakni di tahun 2015 sebanyak 15,75 juta. Mereka ini seharusnya masih tergolong bukan angkatan kerja, dan memerlukan peningkatan kualitas dan produktivitas melalui pendidikan.

Gini ratio (kesenjangan kaya dan miskin) juga terus bertambah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir. Persentase jumlah kemiskinan memang menurun, tetapi sebaliknya penduduk kaya di Indonesia juga meningkat pesat.

“Ini semakin menambah lebar jurang antara kaya-miskin,” imbuhnya.

Karena itu, menurutnya kata kunci mengurangi jurang kaya dan miskin adalah pemerataan pembangunan, baik pemerataan pembangunan antarsektor, antarwilayah, maupun antardaerah, dengan melibatkan sebesar-besarnya angkatan kerja di Indonesia.

Ia menegaskan, pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) harus dicegah dengan dalih apapun juga, sebab akan menambah angka pengangguran. Selain itu, perusahaan yang mempekerjakan angkatan kerja harus mampu berdaya saing dengan perusahaan dalam dan luar negeri.

“Bagi yang belum bekerja, langkahnya adalah melaksanaan penciptaan dan perluasan kesempatan kerja baru untuk mengurangi angka pengangguran,” ucapnya.[wid]

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JAKARTA kontan. Wakil Ketua Komisi VII DPR RI Fadel Muhammad menilai penurunan harga minyak dunia masih akan menjadi tantangan berat bagi perekonomian global dan ekonomi domestik pada 2016.

Harga minyak sebelumnya pernah stabil pada kisaran 100 dolar AS per barel selama kurang lebih tiga setengah tahun, tapi sejak 2014 harga minyak terus menurun.

“Harga minyak (rata-rata sepanjang tahun 2016) diperkirakan akan berada pada kisaran 15-20 dolar AS per barel,” ujar Fadel dalam sebuah seminar di Jakarta, Kamis.

Menurut Fadel, jika harga minyak turun 20 persen masih positif karena mengurangi inflasi dan biaya logistik minyak turun 20 persen.

Namun, turun harga minyak sampai 75 persen tersebut berpengaruh negatif terhadap perekonomian Indonesia.

Ia menuturkan, dampaknya akan merembet kepada penurunan signifikan pada Pendapatan Nasional Bukan Pajak (PNBP) dari sektor migas.

Penerimaan sektor migas pada 2015 lalu mencapai 12,86 miliar dolar AS dari target yang ditetapkan 14,99 miliar dolar AS atau 85,79 persen dari target.

Harga minyak dunia sendiri belakangan menunjukkan tren meningkat setelah sempat menyentuh level di bawah 30 dolar AS per barel. Posisi harga minyak dunia terakhir mencapai level 38,46 dolar AS per barel.

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okezone JAKARTA – Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengaku tidak mengkhawatirkan mengenai prediksi International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di 2016 sebesar 4,9 persen.

Meskipun, pemerintah telah menetapkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di APBN 2016 sebesar 5,3 persen. Menurut Darmin, pada realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di 205 yang mencapai 4,79 persen juga lantaran adanya upaya pemerintah menggenjot pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap kuartalnya.

“Tahun lalu juga begitu. Memang tahun lalu kita agak rendah, tapi dari kuartal ke kuartal kita makin baik loh. Kuartal 3, kuartal 4. Berarti ya ke depannya bisa juga kita dorong lebih baik,” kata Darmin di Kantor Presiden, Jakarta, Selasa (15/3/2016).

Meski prediksi IMF jauh di bawah target pertumbuhan yang telah ditetapkan dalam APBN. Namun, Darmin tetap optimistis bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di 2016 sebesar 5,3 persen.

“Untuk mencapai apa yang ditargetkan di APBN, 5,3 persen, ya saya kok tidak melihat itu sesuatu yang berat untuk dicapai,” tambahnya.

Dapat diketahui, IMF memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2016 akan berada di kisaran 4,9 persen setelah pada 2016 mencapai 4,79 persen. IMF menilai prospek ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka menengah masih baik, terutama karena dukungan kebijakan-kebijakan pemerintah untuk merealisasikan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang menyeluruh bagi semua lapisan masyarakat.

(mrt)

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JAKARTA – Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penamaan Modal (BKPM) Franky Sibarani hari ini turut mendampingi Menteri Perindustrian Saleh Husin dalam menyambut investor Belgia. Seperti yang diketahui, hari ini Indonesia kedatangan 301 delegasi dari Belgia yang berasal dari 200 perusahaan.

Dalam pertemuan ini, investor asal Belgia sempat mengutarakan keberatan dari besaran pajak di Indonesia. Belgia pun meminta Indonesia untuk memberikan fasilitas dalam hal perpajakan.

“Dalam pertemuan pertama itu adalah masalah pajak. Ada keluhan mengenai pajak. Itu akan kita fasilitasi,” kata Franky saat ditemui di Hotel Pullman, Jakarta, Senin (14/3/2016).

Menurut Franky, meskipun Belgia tidak tercatat ke dalam 20 besar sebagai investor asing di lantai bursa, namun pemerintah tetap akan memberikan prioritas dan fasilitas dalam hal perpajakan. Sebab, minta Belgia untuk berinvestasi tak hanya dalam bidang satu bidang, melainkan dalam berbagai bidang seperti pariwisata hingga perdagangan.

“Sampai saat ini memang investor dari Belgia itu tidak masuk dalam 20 besar di bursa. Tapi itu pekerjaan rumah kita,” tukasnya.

Seperti yang diketahui, saat ini Belgia menduduki peringkat 32 daftar investor di pasar saham Indonesia. Dengan adanya kerja sama ini, diharapkan nilai investasi Belgia akan semakin meningkat dan memberikan manfaat bagi pembangunan di Indonesia.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/03/14/20/1335214/investor-belgia-keluhkan-besaran-pajak-indonesia
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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kontan:

JAKARTA. Pemerintah masih perlu terus mendorong daya beli masyarakat. Penilaian ini disampaikan oleh Bank Indonesia (BI).

Bank sentral mencatat, di dua bulan pertama tahun 2016 ini, tingkat konsumsi rumah tangga masih tergolong rendah dibandingkan kuartal IV 2015 lalu.

Gubernur BI Agus Martowardojo mengungkapkan, tren pelambatan konsumsi rumah tangga sudah terjadi sejak tahun lalu. Tren ini ia perkirakan masih berlangsung hingga kuartal pertama ini.

Pendapat Agus ini diperkuat oleh hasi survei BI tentang indeks keyakinan konsumen (IKK) di Februari yang turun dari bulan sebelumnya. IKK pada Februari 2016 menurun menjadi 110 dari sebelumnya 112,6 pada Januari lalu.

Sebab itu, Agus memprediksi, pertumbuhan konsumsi kuartal pertama 2016 ini lebih rendah dari kuartal IV tahun lalu. Sebelumnya, Kepala Departemen Ekonomi BI Juda Agung memproyeksi, pertumbuhan konsumsi di kuartal I 2016 sebesar 5%.

“Pada kuartal IV 2015 ada peran pemerintah dan pelaksanaan Pilkada,” kata Agus, Jumat (4/3) di Jakarta.

Gubernur BI memberikan catatan, meski BI sudah mengeluarkan kebijakan moneter yang semakin longgar dengan menurunkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 50 basis points (bps) selama Januari-Februari, dampak pelonggaran moneter itu belum terlihat.

Sebab, kebijakan moneter memang tidak bisa langsung berdampak ke masyarakat. Agus mengingatkan, kebijakan moneter saja tidak cukup untuk mendorong konsumsi. Justru yang dibutuhkan saat ini adalah kebijakan di sisi fiskal.

Kondisi seperti ini tidak hanya terjadi di Indonesia, tetapi hampir di seluruh dunia. Dalam pertemuan negara-negara G-20 beberapa waktu lalu di Shanghai, China, sejumlah gubernur bank sentral menyampaikan, kebijakan di sisi moneter sudah cukup banyak.

Yang diperlukan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi saat ini adalah reformasi struktural. Sebab itu, kebijakan moneter, fiskal, dan sektor riil harus benar-benar berkordinasi untuk merespons hal tersebut.

Sinyalemen ini boleh jadi sinyal dari BI tentang kebijakan bunga dalam rapat Dewan Gubernur BI Maret ini. Di sisi lain, Agus meminta pemerintah untuk memperhatikan reformasi ketenagakerjaan.

Reformasi ketenagakerjaan bukan hanya bagaimana menyusun konsep remunerasi atau cara merekrut tenagakerja, tetapi terkait kebijakan menjaga pengangguran agar tidak meningkat. Misalnya, di saat banyak pemutusan hubungan kerja, pemerintah harus menyiapkan regulasi tentang kepastian bagi pegawai yang kehilangan pekerjaan agar bisa mendapatkan pekerjaan lagi.

Selain itu, jika perlu, pemerintah mengurangi pemecatan. Bantuan langsung Ekonom Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI) Latif Adam menilai, untuk mendorong konsumsi, pemerintah perlu segera menurunkan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM).

Ini dimungkinkan karena penurunan harga minyak dunia cukup besar. Pemerintah juga perlu mempercepat penyaluran subsidi langsung pemerintah dalam bentuk tunai (cash transfer). Cara ini efektif mendorong daya beli dalam waktu singkat.

Direktur Jasa Keuangan dan Analisis Moneter Bappenas Sidqi Lego Pangesthi bilang, bantuan sosial masih perlu persiapan media penyalurannya dan lembaga yang akan terlibat. Jadi untuk melaksanakannya butuh waktu.

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Jakarta: Perekonomian dunia sekarang ini sedang dilanda perlambatan dan memiliki dampak negatif bagi negara-negara didalamnya. Bahkan, kebanyakan negara maju mengandalkan kebijakan moneter suku bunga negatif (negative rate) untuk menghadapi tekanan ekonomi saat ini.

Hal tersebut seperti dikatakan Ekonom Croco Researt Institute Raden Pardede, dalam acara ISEI, di Menara BTN, Jakarta Pusat, Rabu 2 Maret. Dalam hal ini, Raden menyinggung langkah pemerintah dan otoritas keuangan yang berniat untuk menerapkan suku bunga rendah.

“Ini adalah pelajaran penting buat indonesia bahwa kita tidak bisa mengandalkan hanya satu monetary policy saja. Suku bunga turun enggak selesai masalahnya,” kata Raden.

Dirinya memandang, kebijakan tingkat suku bunga rendah menjadi sumber ketidakpastian. Ketidakpastian ini membuat masa depan perekonomian dunia menjadi kembali tidak jelas dan nantinya memicu adanya perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti yang terjadi di Eropa, Jepang, dan Tiongkok.

“Tidak ada motor pengerak ekonomi dunia, kecuali India, tapi India juga kecil. Tapi yang terjadi saat ini adalah perlambatan ekonomi dunia,” ujar dia.

Dirinya menganalogikan perlambatan ini seperti adanya angin haluan atau headwinds yang menghambat pesawat terbang. Jika anginnya datang dari depan dan pesawat dalam keadaan menurun itu masih baik. Namun yang berbahaya adalah ketika ada angin dari samping atau crossways.

“Ini berbahaya yaitu dimulai dari China dengan financial soft-nya bisa terjadi, kemudian negara-negara penghasil minyak, seluruh hasil minyak sekarang mengalami persoalan-persoalan. Perusahaan penghasil minyak juga diprediksi kurang maksimal,” jelas dia.

http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2016/03/03/493177/suku-bunga-rendah-dinilai-tidak-selesaikan-persoalan-ek
Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM

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JAKARTA kontan. Insentif listrik yang diberikan pemerintah kepada industri dalam menghadapi perlambatan ekonomi nasional dan global yang diberikan pemerintah beberapa waktu lalu sudah dimanfaatkan oleh para pengusaha. Sofyan Basyir, Direktur Utama PLN mengatakan, sampai saat ini sudah ada 250 industri yang memanfaatkan insentif tersebut.

Ke-250 industri tersebut telah mengajukan permintaan diskon tarif listrik sebesar 30% karena ingin menaikkan kapasitas produksinya pada pukul 23.00 sampai 08.00. Selain itu, ada juga 250 industri lainnya yang mengajukan permohonan penundaan kewajiban bayar tagihan listrik karena sedang kesulitan uang.

“Sebagian besar tekstil di daerah Jawa Barat dan Jawa Timur. Penyerapan tenaga kerjanya besar,” kata Sofyan di Jakarta pekan kemarin.

Sayang, Sofyan tidak menjelaskan secara rinci siapa saja industri dan besarnya diskon serta penundaan pembayaran yang diberikan. Pemerintah mengobral banyak insentif untuk membantu industri dalam negeri menghadapi perlambatan ekonomi global dan nasional. Setidaknya ada dua insentif besar yang mereka berikan.

Pertama, diskon sebesar 30% dari tarif normal. Sudirman Said, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral mengatakan, insentif ini diberikan bagi industri yang menaikkan kapasitas produksinya pada pukul 23.00 sampai 08.00.

“Ini untuk mendorong industri berbasih mekanik untuk memaksimalkan produksinya di malam hari ketika beban rata- rata sedang menurun,” kata Sudirman di Jakarta beberapa waktu lalu.

Insentif ke dua, menunda kewajiban bayar tagihan listrik bagi industri yang mengalami kesulitan cash flow dan berpotensi melakukan PHK. Sudirman mengatakan, industri dengan kategori tersebut hanya akan diberikan kewajiban bayar sebesar 60% dari total tagihan mereka.

Sementara itu, 40% tagihan lainnya, akan ditunda pembayarannya.

“Pembayarannya akan ditunda dan baru dibayar 13 bulan dari sekarang,” katanya.

Darmin Nasution, Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian berharap dengan pemberian insentif- insentif tersebut bisa memberikan pertolongan bagi industri di dalam negeri untuk menghadapi beban perlambatan ekonomi.

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JAKARTA ID– Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengaku terus memonitor pengimplementasian paket kebijakan ekonomi yang telah digulirkan pemerintah. Sejak digulirkan paket pertama pada September 2015 hingga paket IX pada Januari lalu, Darmin mengklaim implementasinya telah mencapai 95%.

 

“Jadi, jangan khawatir dan mengira kita tidak memonitor serta tidak ada aturan pelaksanaannya yang tidak selesai. Kita sudah mencapai 94-95%,” kata Darmin, Kamis (11/2).

 

Darmin menanggapi keraguan sejumlah kalangan terkait implementasi paket kebijakan ekonomi yang dinilai tidak berjalan sesuai harapan. Pemerintah dinilai hanya membuat paket kebijakan tetapi implementasinya kurang karena tidak dilakukan evaluasi.

 

Dia mengatakan, pemerintah hanya membuat satu aturan terkait pemberlakuan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi X, yaitu Peraturan Presiden (Perpres) pengganti Perpres Nomor 39 Tahun 2014 tentang Daftar Bidang Usaha Yang Tertutup dan Bidang Usaha Yang Terbuka Dengan Persyaratan di Bidang Penanaman Modal atau yang lebih dikenal sebagai Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI).

 

“Semua bahan sudah selesai dan dalam beberapa hari saya akan ajukan kepada Pak Pramono (Sekretaris Kabinet) untuk dicek dan diteken Presiden. Jadi, dalam seminggu atau dua minggu akan selesai,” kata Darmin.

 

Terkait paket-paket kebijakan ekonomi I-IX, Raden Pardede menilai, yang diperlukan saat ini adalah monitoringdan evaluasi. “Pemerintah sudah terlalu banyak mengeluarkan paket kebijakan ekonomi. Sekarang ini yang diperlukan adalah monitoring dan evaluasi, karena masih banyak yang belum jalan,” kata Raden.

 

Sandiaga S Uno menyatakan, Kadin akan mengawal paket kebijakan ekonomi X tersebut dengan melakukan pelatihan dan inkubasi khususnya kepada pengusaha mikro yang paling rentan. “Menurut kajian, dari paket kebijakan ekonomi I-IX, baru 30-40% yang berjalan dan peraturannya sudah diterapkan. Sisanya masih dalam tahap sinkronisasi dan harmonisasi aturan,” kata Sandiaga. (nov/th)

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Washington, Feb 4, 2016 (AFP)
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned Thursday that the slowdown in emerging-market economies could lead to rising inequalities in the global economy.

In the wake of China’s cooling economy and the steep fall in commodity prices, the emerging-market economies are seeing growth falter and are facing “a new, harsh reality,” Lagarde said in a speech at the University of Maryland.

“Growth rates are down, capital flows have reversed, and medium-term prospects have deteriorated sharply,” the IMF managing director told a forum, according to the prepared text of her speech.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, posted its weakest growth in a quarter of a century in 2015, and Brazil and Russia are in recession.

The IMF now projects that income levels of the emerging and developing economies will converge to advanced economy levels at less than two thirds the pace it predicted a decade ago, Lagarde said.

“This means that millions of poor people are finding it more difficult to get ahead. And members of the newly created middle classes are finding their expectations unfulfilled,” she said.

The consequences of the interconnected global slowdown will not be merely economic, she pointed out: “It also carries with it the risk of rising inequality, protectionism, and populism.”

To address the growing global weakness, the IMF chief recommended that emerging-market economies, particularly those that export commodities, improve their spending policies and increase non-commodity revenues to make their budget adjustments “less painful.”

And to boost growth, Lagarde called on both advanced and emerging economies to step up efforts to open up global trade systems “and promote trade integration through regional and multilateral agreements.”

Earlier Thursday, the biggest trade deal in history was signed in New Zealand, yoking 12 Pacific Rim countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership that aims to slash tariffs and trade barriers for 40 percent of the global economy.

The US-led initiative, which does not include China, requires ratification by the member states before it takes effect.

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JAKARTA sindonews- Pemerintah hari ini secara resmi meluncurkan paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid IX. Peluncuran paket ini sedikit melenceng dari rencana awal pada pertengahan Januari 2016.

Sekretaris Kabinet Pramono Anung menuturkan, paket kebijakan jilid IX ini terdiri dari tiga poin yaitu berkaitan dengan percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur tenaga listrik, stabilisasi harga daging, dan peningkatan sektor logistik desa dan kota.

“Paket kebijakan ekonomi IX diumumkan hari ini, 27 Januari. Ada tiga kelompok. Soal logistik ada lima peraturan yang akan di breakdown oleh Pak menko perekonomian,” katanya di Kompleks Istana Kepresidenan, Jakarta, Rabu (27/1/2016).

Sementara, Menteri Koordinator bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution menuturkan, untuk mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur tenaga listrik, pemerintah akan mengeluarkan Peraturan Presiden (Perpres).

Selain demi memenuhi kebutuhan listrik untuk rakyat, pembangunan infrastruktur ini akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi sekaligus meningkatkan rasio elektrifikasi.

“Sampai 2015, kapasitas listrik terpasang di Indonesia mencapai 53 gigawatt (GW) dengan energi terjual mencapai 220 terrawatt hour (TWH). Rasio elektrifikasi saat ini 87,5%. Untuk mencapai rasio elektrifikasi hingga 97,2% pada 2019, diperlukan pertumbuhan pembangunan infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan 8,8% per tahun. Ini berdasarkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 6% per tahun dengan asumsi elastisitasi 1,2%,” terang dia.

Dia menjelaskan, dengan adanya Perpres tersebut, PT PLN (Persero) akan memiliki dasar hukum yang kuat untuk mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur ketenagalistrikan. Pemerintah juga akan mendukung berbagai langkah PLN seperti menjamin penyediaan energi primer, kebutuhan pendanaan dalam bentuk PMN, dan lain-lain.

“Juga fasilitas pengembangan Energi Baru Terbarukan (EBT), penyederhanaan perizinan melalui PTSP, penyelesaian konflik tata ruang, penyediaan tanah serta penyelesaian masalah hukum, serta pembentukan badan usaha tersendiri yang menjadi mitra PLN dalam penyediaan listrik,” terangnya.

Di sisi lain, PLN juga wajib mengutamakan penggunaaan barang/jasa dalam negeri melalui proses pengadaan inovatif. Misalnya pengadaan secara openbook, pemberian preferensi harga kepada penyedia barang/jasa dengan tingkat kandungan dalam negeri yang tinggi, serta penerapan pengadaan yang memungkinkan pabrikan dalam negeri.

Selain listrik, yang masuk dalam paket kebijakan ekonomi IX adalah kebijakan tentang pasokan ternak dan/atau produk hewan dalam hal tertentu. Kebijakan ini didasari kebutuhan daging sapi dalam negeri yang terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun.

Pada 2016, kebutuhan nasional mencapai 2,61 kg per kapita, sehingga kebutuhan nasional setahun mencapai 674,69 ribu ton atau setara dengan 3,9 juta ekor sapi.

“Kebutuhan tersebut belum dapat dipenuhi peternak dalam negeri, karena produksi sapi hanya mencapai 439,53 ribu ton per tahun atau setara dengan 2,5 juta ekor sapi. Jadi, terdapat kekurangan pasokan yang mencapai 235,16 ribu ton yang harus dipenuhi melalui impor,” ungkap dia.

Pemerintah sebenarnya telah melakukan langkah-langkah untuk meningkatkan pasokan atau produksi daging sapi dalam negeri. Yakni, melalui upaya peningkatan populasi, pengembangan logistik dan distribusi, perbaikan tata niaga sapi dan daging sapi, dan penguatan kelembagaan melalui Sentra Peternakan Rakyat (SPR).

Namun, karena upaya tersebut memerlukan waktu perlu dibarengi pasokan dari luar negeri untuk menutup kekurangan yang ada.

Mengingat terbatasnya jumlah negara pemasok, pemerintah Indonesia perlu memperluas akses dari negara maupun zona tertentu yang memenuhi syarat kesehatan hewan yang ditetapkan Organisasi Kesehatan Hewan Internasional (OIE), untuk menambah alternatif sumber penyediaan hewan dan produk hewan.

Untuk itu, Menteri Pertanian Amran Sulaiman akan menetapkan negara atau zona dalam suatu negara, unit usaha atau farm untuk pemasukan ternak dan/atau produk hewan berdasarkan analisis resiko dengan tetap memperhatikan ketentuan OIE.

Dengan demikian, pemasukan ternak dan produk hewan dalam kondisi tertentu tetap bisa dilakukan, seperti dalam keadaan bencana, kurangnya ketersediaan daging, atau saat harga daging sedang naik yang bisa memicu inflasi dan memengaruhi stabilitas harga.

“Jenis ternak yang dapat dimasukkan berupa sapi atau kerbau bakalan, sedangkan produk hewan yang bisa didatangkan berupa daging tanpa tulang dari ternak sapi dan/atau kerbau. Kebijakan ini diharapkan mampu menstabilisasi pasokan daging dalam negeri dengan harga yang terjangkau dan kesejahteraan peternak tetap meningkat,” terang Darmin.

Mantan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) ini menambahkan, untuk peningkatan sektor logistik di desa dan kota, pemerintah sepakat untuk melakukan deregulasi terhadap peraturan yang berkaitan dengan pembangunan konektivitas ekonomi desa dan kota.

Adapun lima jenis usaha yang dideregulasi adalah pengembangan usaha jasa penyelenggaraan pos komersial, penyatuan pembayaran jasa-jasa kepelabuhan secara elektronik (single billing), sinergi BUMN membangun agregator atau konsolidator ekspor produk UKM, goegraphical indications, dan ekonomi kreatif, sistem pelayanan terpadu kepelabuhan secara elektronik, dan penggunaan mata uang rupiah untuk transaksi kegiatan transportasi.

“Sektor logistik perlu dibenahi demi meningkatkan efisiensi dan daya saing serta pembangunan konektivitas ekonomi desa-kota,” tandas dia.

(izz)

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Jakarta detik-Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) mulai menunjukkan penguatannya.

Berdasarkan data perdagangan Reuters, Senin (25/1/2016), dolar AS pagi ini dibuka melemah di posisi Rp 13.796, dibandingkan penutupan perdagangan pada akhir pekan lalu yang berada di posisi Rp 13.822.

Meski demikian, penguatan rupiah tak bertahan lama. Dolar AS perlahan menguat.

Mata uang Paman Sam tersebut bergerak naik hingga ke level tertingginya pagi ini di Rp 13.845.

Hingga pukul 09.19 WIB, dolar AS bergerak menurun dari level tertingginya di Rp 13.840.

Penguatan rupiah terjadi merespon harga minyak dunia yang mulai naik. Setelah sempat terkoreksi hingga di bawah US$ 29 per barel, WTI Crude Oil mengalami rebound hingga US$ 32.19.

Meski demikian, masih perlu diwaspadai fluktuasi harga minyak dunia. Selain itu, perlambatan ekonomi China juga bisa menghambat laju rupiah.

Hal lain, kepastian suku bunga bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve (the Fed) akan menggerakkan volatiltas rupiah.

(drk/drk)

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MUMBAI, KOMPAS.com – Pertumbuhan ekonomi India mencapai angka 7,4 persen pada kuartal III-2015. Berdasarkan data resmi pemerintah,  Selasa (1/12/2015), capaian ini jauh di atas capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal sebelumnya yang mencapai 7 persen.

Faktor-faktor pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi India ini adalah permintaan domestik dan dan aktivitas manufaktur. Dengan demikian, pertumbuhan ekonomi India berhasil melampaui China yang mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,9 persen.

Perekonomian India telah diuntungkan dari jatuhnya harga komoditas yang membuat impor barang seperti minyak dan emasmenjadi murah. Data ini menunjukkan bahwa India terus menjadi salah satu ekonomi utama yang membukukan pertumbuhan paling cepat di dunia.

Meski demikian, ekonomi India dinilai masih perlu untuk tumbuh lebih tinggi untuk menyerap lebih banyak lapangan kerja bagi penduduknya. Oleh sebab itu, India perlu investasi besar yang berarti diperlukan iklim bisnis yang bersahabat.

Data perekonomian yang baru saja dirilis tersebut merupakan kabar baik bagi pemerintah India yang menghadapi kritik karena tidak menepati janji untuk melakukan reformasi ekonomi. Selain itu, kondisi politik terkait pemilihan umum pun mempengaruhi kondisi ekonomi.

Hari ini, Bank sentral India akan melakukan pertemuan guna menentukan suku bunga acuan sebagai langkah lanjutan usai rilis pertumbuhan ekonomi. Bulan lalu, bank sentral memangkas suku bunga acuan hingga berada pada posisi 6,75 persen.

Penulis : Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan
Editor : Erlangga Djumena
Sumber : BBC

RBI latest interest rate changes

 change date percentage
 september 29 2015 6.750 %
 june 02 2015 7.250 %
 march 04 2015 7.500 %
 january 15 2015 7.750 %
 january 28 2014 8.000 %
 october 29 2013 7.750 %
 september 20 2013 7.500 %
 may 03 2013 7.250 %
 march 19 2013 7.500 %
 january 29 2013 7.750 %

JAKARTA – Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengungkapkan jika Indonesia akan mencontoh India dalam mengatasi kestabilan mata uang negaranya Rupe terhadap penguatan dolar Amerika Serikat (AS).Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo, mengamini apa yang diungkapkan Menkeu tersebut. Menurutnya, India memang sanggup menghadapi fenomena penguatan dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Menurutnya, kondisi domestik India menjadi lebih baik. Pasalnya, Bank Central India mampu mengantisipasi perkembangan isu dolar akan menguat.

“Itu yang mempengaruhi depresiasi di India tidak terlalu besar terhadap dolar. Saya yakin bank Central India mengantisipasi perkembangan itu,”ujar Perry di Gedung DPR, Jakarta, Selasa (29/9/2015).

Menurutnya, India memiliki Gubernur Bank Central India yang sangat kuat. Dalam membuat kerangka kebijakan sangat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan perekonomian dan mata uang terkendali.

“Beliau sangat disiplin membuat kerangka kebijakan dan keputusan yang dibentuk India betul-betul membuat inflasi dalam negeri terkendali dan juga perhitungan terhadap mata uang bisa dikalkulasi,” tuturnya.

Sekadar informasi, hal tersebut terkait dengan keinginan Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengungkapkan untuk bisa seperti India yang mampu mengatasi pelemahan Rupe terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat.

Menurut Bambang, India mampu menstabilkan mata uangnya dengan mengurangi impor dengan menggantinya dengan produksi dalam negeri yang dinamakan oleh Kedutan Besar India yaitu “Make in India”.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/09/29/20/1223100/bi-dukung-pemerintah-tiru-india-lawan-dolar-as
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

Summary of other central banks’ interest rates

 central bank interest rate region percentage date
 FED interest rate United States 0.250 % 12-16-2008
 RBA interest rate Australia 2.000 % 05-05-2015
 BACEN interest rate Brazil 14.250 % 07-30-2015
 BoE interest rate Great Britain 0.500 % 03-05-2009
 BOC interest rate Canada 0.500 % 07-15-2015
 PBC interest rate China 4.600 % 08-25-2015
 ECB interest rate Europe 0.050 % 09-04-2014
 BoJ interest rate Japan 0.100 % 10-05-2010
 CBR interest rate Russia 11.000 % 07-31-2015
 SARB interest rate South Africa 6.000 % 07-23-2015

MUMBAI: The rupee rose by 19 paise at 65.77 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday at the Interbank Foreign Exchange after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.50 per cent on Tuesday (9/29/2015).

Forex dealers said besides a higher opening in domestic equity market, the dollar’s weakness against other currencies overseas, supported the rupee.

The domestic currency had gained nine paise to close at 65.96 against the US currency in Tuesday’s trade on persistent selling of dollars by banks and exporters amid sustained capital inflows.

Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex jumped 265.94 points, or 1.03 per cent, at 26,044.60 in early trade on Wednesday.

Seoul – Korea Selatan mencatat surplus neraca berjalan selama 42 bulan berturut-turut. Itu karena penurunan impor lebih cepat daripada ekspor, memperkuat kekhawatiran tentang apa yang disebut jenis resesi surplus, data bank sentral menunjukkan Jumat (02/10/2015).

tren bunga acuan korsel Okt 2015

Surplus transaksi berjalan Korsel mencapai US$8,46 miliar pada Agustus 2015, turun dari US$9,3 miliar sebulan sebelumnya, tetapi naik dari US$7,24 miliar dolar setahun sebelumnya, menurut bank sentral Korea Selatan, Bank of Korea (BoK).

Neraca transaksi berjalan berada di posisi hitam selama 42 bulan berturut-turut sejak Maret 2012, mempertahankan tren surplus bulanan terpanjang. Kecenderungan surplus terjadi karena impor merosot pada kecepatan yang lebih cepat daripada ekspor. Ekspor dan impor berkurang tahun ini, meningkatkan kekhawatiran tentang pelambatan ekonomi.

Ekspor anjlok 11,7 persen dari setahun sebelumnya menjadi US$43,18 miliar pada Agustus 2015, dan impor jatuh 17,7 persen menjadi US$34,21 miliar. Surplus perdagangan untuk barang-barang mencapai US$8,97 miliar bulan lalu.

http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2241906/korsel-surplus-transaksi-berjalan-selama-42-bulan
Sumber : INILAH.COM

Seoul, Dec 3, 2015 (AFP)
South Korea’s economy grew at the fastest pace in more than five years in the third quarter, driven by a strong rebound in consumer spending, central bank data showed Thursday.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded by 1.3 percent in the July-September period, the fastest on-quarter growth since the second quarter of 2010, the Bank of Korea said.

The quarter saw consumers venture back into shopping malls as the threat posed by a serious outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) receded.

Thirty-six people died in the outbreak, during which local businesses including shopping malls, restaurants and cinemas reported a sharp drop in sales as people shunned public venues with large crowds.

The tourism industry was hit particularly hard, with the number of foreign visitors plunging by up to 60 percent.

The third-quarter figure was higher than an earlier estimate of 1.2 percent and marked the first time in five quarters that it has exceeded the 1.0 percent mark.

Output in the manufacturing industry inched up only 0.1 percent on-quarter, reflecting a persistent slump in exports, which account for about half of South Korea’s GDP.

The central bank has predicted South Korea’s GDP would grow 2.7 percent this year. lim/gh/jah

6% @ BI Rate, ayo D0Nk!!!!!!

 

Jakarta infobank–Tingkat inflasi yang terus mengalami penurunan dimana pada Agustus dan September 2015 terjadi deflasi yang masing-masing sebesar 0,39% dan 0,08%, dinilai bisa menjadi ruang bagi Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya melalui penurunan BI Rate.

Ketua Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia (ISEI), Halim Alamsyah di Jakarta, Kamis, 5 November 2015. “Saya kira kita memiliki ruang dari sisi moneter, karena inflasinyakan sudah turun terus,” ujar Ketua Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia (ISEI), Halim Alamsyah di Jakarta, Kamis, 5 November 2015..

Selain itu, dia menilai, Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) yang memutuskan untuk menunda kenaikan suku bunganya, juga bisa menjadi alasan BI untuk menurunkan suku bunga acuannya, karena normalisasi kebijakan moneter The Fed sampai saat ini belum menunjukkan kepastiannya.

“Sepanjang kondisi global yang tidak memberikan dampak yang berat terhadap kurs rupiah, saya kira ruang itu juga semakin terbuka,” tukas Halim.

Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution juga pernah mengatakan, tingkat inflasi yang diperkirakan rendah pada akhir tahun ini, dapat menjadi peluang untuk penurunan suku bunga acuan BI.
“Sebenarnya dilihat dari itu, mestinya ada ruang untuk tingkat bunganya turun,” ucapnya.

Lebih lanjut dia menjelaskan, ruang untuk penurunan BI Rate bisa terlihat dari inflasi tahun kalender Januari-Oktober 2015 yang baru mencapai 2,16% dan inflasi secara tahun ke tahun (year on year) 6,25%. Namun, sejauh ini BI sebagai otoritas moneter mempunyai pertimbangan tersendiri.

Idealnya, kata Darmin, selisih antara BI Rate dengan tingkat inflasi adalah 100 basis poin (satu persen) bukan sebanyak 400 basis poin (empat persen) seperti saat ini. Menurutnya, dengan inflasi sekarang, makin lama real interest ratenya maka akan semakin besar.

“Nanti akhir tahun, inflasi di bawah 4%. Padahal BI Ratenya 7,5%, ada selisih empat persentase poin. Biasanya bedanya satu (persentase poin),” ujar dia.

Darmin menambahkan BI Rate yang terlalu tinggi dalam situasi saat ini telah membuat masyarakat enggan untuk mengajukan pinjaman ke perbankan dan menahan konsumsinya, sehingga kondisi tersebut tentunya dapat memperlambat kinerja perekonomian. (*) Rezkiana Nisaputra

Jakarta detik -Pemerintah akan menyediakan pinjaman dengan bunga rendah untuk perusahaan yang tengah dalam kesulitan dan terancam melakukan Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK) karyawan. Ini masuk dalam paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid III yang akan diluncurkan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi).”Kalau perusahaan kewalahan kan bisa PHK. Nah, ini kita bantu dengan kredit bersubsidi. (bunga) di bawah komersial,” ujar Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro usai rapat koordinasi di Kantor Kemenko Perekonomian, Jakarta, Jumat (2/10/2015)

Bila melihat secara keseluruhan, bunga komersial yang berlaku sekarang di atas 10%. ‎Bahkan dimungkinkan bunga yang diberikan nantinya bisa setara dengan level suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI). Sehingga cukup membantu perusahaan untuk kembali memproduksi.

Instansi yang akan memberikan kredit tersebut adalah Lembaga ‎Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia (LPEI). Tahun ini telah diberikan penyertaan modal negara (PMN) sebesar Rp 1 triliun untuk mendukung kebijakan tersebut.

“LPEI intinya kan dapat PMN Rp 1 triliun akan dipakai sebagai dasar untuk pembiayaan itu. Jadi suku bunganya lebih rendah dari komersial,” imbuhnya.

LPEI tidak hanya melayani perusahaan yang berorientasi ekspor saja, melainkan perusahaan padat karya. Walaupun tidak harus orientasinya ekspor. Asalkan perusahaan dapat kembali beroperasi dan tidak melakukan PHK.

“Kalau bisa jamin orang yang di PHK bisa ditarik lagi mungkin saja bisa,” tegas Bambang.

(mkl/ang)

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution tak yakin kinerja neraca perdagangan November 2015 bakal bisa membantu memulihkan kekuatan nilai tukar rupiah yang makin loyo terhadap dollar AS.

Sebagaimana diketahui, pada penutupan perdagangan Senin (14/12/2015) sore, nilai tukar mata uang Garuda melemah sebesar 0,93 persen di posisi Rp 14.122 per dollar AS.

Menurut Darmin, pemilik dana lebih memperhatikan pengaruh dari eksternal daripada internal.

“Kalau ada kebijakan perubahan tingkat bunga (the Fed) itu biasanya akan membuat pemilik dana lebih terpengaru, dari sekedar data (ekonomi domestik),” ungkap Darmin kepada wartawan di kantornya, Jakarta, Senin.

Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar kembali mendapat tekanan berat sepekan terakhir, setelah adanya isu kenaikan suku bunga acuan Federal Reserve AS.

Darmin mengatakan, memang jelas isu itu membuat orang berspekulasi. Tekanan terhadap mata uang Garuda diprediksi akan terus terjadi sampai akhir pekan ini.

Meski begitu, Darmin menyatakan pemerintah telah menyiapkan kebijakan responsif.

“Kita akan siapkan kebijakan juga untuk menjawab itu. Tapi mungkin dalam satu-dua hari ini (baru dikeluarkan),” ucap Darmin.

strait times: Many emerging market currencies fell in value in August and September as various global worries took centre stage.

Investors were concerned that China would suffer a hard landing as the economy slowed significantly after years of boom.

In the world’s largest economy, the United States Federal Reserve back then offered a relatively downbeat assessment of the global economy. There were also concerns that when the Fed finally raises interest rates – an event that could well come this week – capital would leave emerging markets.

Dr Michael Hasenstab says, however, he saw at that time – and still sees – value in Malaysian and Indonesian government bonds.

Conditions in Malaysia were nowhere near as bad as they were in the Asian financial crisis, yet the ringgit was trading at levels not seen since that currency meltdown in 1997-98. In his assessment, the currency is “easily more than 20 per cent undervalued”.

Malaysia’s current account remains in surplus despite a slowing China and falling commodity prices, partly because electronics exports have been rising. Its central bank reserves also more than cover all their short-term external debt obligations, he noted.

In the case of Indonesia, interest rates and the value of the rupiah are attractive, added Dr Hasenstab, who is a portfolio manager for a number of funds, including the Templeton Global Bond Fund. Low government debt, reasonably strong domestic consumption and the elimination of fuel subsidies would likely benefit the country.

Q What was your reaction to the market volatility in the third quarter?

A Our view was that the global economy is not as bad as people think.

It has decelerated but it will still have reasonably positive growth next year.

The depreciation of the currency in China and the sell-off in the equity market were not indicative of a hard landing. The old capital-intensive, heavy-industry low-end manufacturing is decelerating and needs further restructuring.

But there is a new economy that is emerging to offset that – backed by the service sector, higher-quality growth, moving up the value-added chain and innovation.

Without a hard landing in China, a lot of emerging markets are far better positioned to deal with the Fed rate hike than they had been in previous periods.

We maintained our exposures in South Korea and Malaysia and added places like Indonesia and Mexico.

Q What are your top picks for these markets as of now?

A For Malaysia, we are now looking at local, shorter-maturity, local-currency government bonds, so we are getting exposure to the currency and local interest rates.

By our estimates, the Malaysian ringgit is easily more than 20 per cent undervalued.

The yields are fairly low – they are around 2 to 3 per cent – hence for Malaysia, it is mostly for the currency, not about the yield that you can earn. We are looking at shorter tenors because we do not want to take interest rate risk. Interest rates are very low, and over time, those will need to normalise higher.

Q Why are you optimistic on Malaysia in spite of China’s slowdown and falling commodity prices?

A It is true that Malaysia is going to be exporting less of the traditional exports to China, because of China’s industrial slowdown.

However, Malaysia’s trade balance and current account remain in surplus despite the slowdown in China and falling commodity prices because electronics exports have been rising.

Exports are almost equally balanced between electronics and commodities and Malaysia is a fairly competitive exporter of electronics. These are more consumer-related, and of which China is going to be consuming more. It can also export electronics to the world, so it’s not just China.

Q What are other reasons for optimism on Malaysia?

A The ringgit dropped to levels below those during the global financial crisis (RM3.60 per US$1) and the Asian financial crisis (it was RM4.20 per US$1 in 1998).

However, the Malaysian economy is far stronger today than it was during either the Asian or global financial crisis. Then, the country was running a current account deficit of 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), with foreign reserves representing only three months of imports.

Yes, growth is slower than it was five years ago. The current account surplus has come down to about 2.5 per cent in the third quarter, but that did not justify such a decline.

The Malaysian central bank also did a very good job of managing this crisis. Instead of trying to intervene in the market and wasting reserves, it allowed the currency to adjust and kept its reserves. The reserves more than cover all its short-term external debt obligations, so it still has that insurance buffer.

The ringgit has also been penalised by negative political headlines about some high-profile corruption scandals. Certainly those are bad to see, but they are not systemic to the entire country.

The weakness in exchange will feed through into a growth in exports, so it will actually improve its current account.

Q What about Indonesia?

A We are looking at a mix of shorter and longer government bonds.

We think interest rates there are already fairly elevated. Yields are around 8 to 8.5 per cent – that’s a lot more attractive. The currency also looks attractive.

Indonesia is also primarily driven by domestic consumption, and that is still reasonably strong. Its big weakness has always been high oil prices. Oil prices are obviously not high now, so that is a benefit.

It has also, during this fall in energy prices, eliminated subsidies on fuel, and this gives a great future relief to the Budget because if energy prices do rise, the government is not going to be on the hook to subsidise those costs.

We also are quite encouraged by the new government in Indonesia. It is focused on infrastructure investment, which is really important for the country. Ports, roads, power – it is making some progress there. Indonesia also has very little government debt.

Q How would a Fed rate hike impact emerging markets?

A We do expect the Fed to hike rates this month and then continue to hike rates next year in a gradual path.

Ironically, this is the best thing for emerging markets because it would do two things. It would signal to the market that the global economy is not as bad as the Fed alluded to in September in its statement. It would also give the market a chance to observe that a Fed rate hike is really not that bad for these countries.

I think a couple of months after, when people observe that a Fed rate hike did not cause a recession in Mexico, for example, you would get a re-acceleration of emerging markets.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on December 13, 2015, with the headline ‘Bullish on govt bonds in Malaysia, Indonesia’. Print Edition | Subscribe

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta -Pengamat ekonomi Lana Soelistianingsih menilai perekonomian Indonesia sangat tergantung pada Cina sebagai negara dengan konsumen komoditas terbesar di dunia. Jika Perekomian Cina belum membaik, kondisi ekonomi Indonesia pun belum bisa membaik. “Efek Cina itu besar, kalau dia tumbuh bagus komoditas Indonesia membaik,” ujar Lana di kantor Bank Indonesia pada Kamis, 10 Desember 2015.

Lana berujar jika Indonesia masih mengandalkan ekspor sektor sumber daya alam, ketergantungan pada Cina belum bisa dilepaskan. Sebab, saat ini sekitar 70 persen ekspor Indonesia berasal dari sumber daya alam. “Indonesia masih berharap pada Cina,” kata dia.

Harga komoditas Indonesia diperkirakan akan cenderung menurun selama ekonomi Cina belum membaik. Lana mengatakan selain dipengaruhi Cina, harga komoditas Indonesia juga dipengaruhi harga minyak mentah. “Harga minyak mentah turun, pasti yang basisnya energi juga turun seperti batu bara,” ujar Lana.

Lana menilai Indonesia harus memprioritaskan peningkatan daya beli masyarakat. Ekonomi domestik dari sisi konsumen rumah tangga harus diperkuat. Ia menilai daya beli masyarakat adalah kunci dari pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.

Uaha tidak akan tumbuh jika daya beli masyarakat rendah. Dampak lain, kata Lana, adalah perlambatan kredit pelaku usaha terhadap bank. Pelaku usaha akan menurunkan volume produksi dan menunda kredit jika permintaan dari masyarakat turun. “Ngapain saya kredit kalau tidak saya pakai,” ujar Lana.

Menurut Lana, kebijakan BI tetap tidak menurunkan suku bunga di level 7,5 persen adalah tepat. Kestabilan akan terjaga sehingga pelaku usaha bisa menentukan biaya produksi di masa depan. “Tunggu sampai triwulan satu perkembangan rupiah stabil tidak, kalo itu stabil pelaku usaha pun bisa menghitung harga biaya produksi,” kata dia.

DANANG FIRMANTO

Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla (Wapres JK) berulang kali menyindir Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk menurunkan tingkat suku bunga acuan alias BI Rate. Bahkan kali ini, JK kembali menyentil bank sentral sambil memohon maaf atas pernyataannya soal BI Rate yang dianggap terlalu tinggi dibanding negara lain.

Saat memberi sambutan di acara Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia (ISEI), Jumat (4/12/2015) malam, JK menegaskan bahwa Indonesia harus memperhatikan biaya produksi yang terus merangkak naik. Banyak pihak terbiasa berpikir Indonesia harus mampu mengecap pertumbuhan ekonomi dua digit, sementara negara lain sudah membuang jauh pemikiran tersebut.

“Saya sudah berkali-kali bicara tentang BI untuk berpikir tenang bahwa tidak ada negara maju dengan bunga tinggi. Coba tunjukkan ke saya. Kalau biaya kita ketinggian di sektor ini, maka kita tidak mungkin bersaing dengan Vietnam, Malaysia dan Thailand yang bunganya lebih rendah dari kita,” tegas JK.

Menurutnya, hanya Turki dan Brazil yang kini menetapkan tingkat suku bunga tinggi dari Indonesia. Dengan begitu, BI perlu mengantisipasinya agar Indonesia bisa bersaing dengan negara lain. JK mengatakan, teori ekonomi mengemukakan, jika suku bunga naik, maka investasi akan turun.

“Rumusnya itu saja. Jadi menyedihkan bagi kita semua, sehingga kita harus punya pikiran yang sama,” ujarnya.

Dijelaskan JK, tujuan utama Bank Sentral di seluruh dunia adalah menstabilkan nilai tukar mata uang dan mengendalikan inflasi. Sementara tujuan pemerintah adalah mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menciptakan lapangan kerja.

“Inflasi 5 persen sampai 6 persen tidak masalah untuk penciptaan lapangan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, yang penting bisa di manage,” sambungnya.

Permohonan maaf JK terlontar ketika dirinya menyampaikan soal posisi BI sebagai lembaga atau institusi yang independen. JK menegaskan bahwa di Negara ini tidak ada yang independen karena semua institusi berada dalam satu bendera merah putih Indonesia dengan satu pimpinan yang dikepalai Presiden.

“Jadi selama Presiden kita kepala negara, semua harus tunduk kepada kepala negara.”

JK kembali mengeluarkan permintaan maaf mengenai statusnya yang independen, namun tetap harus mengacu pada kebijakan pemerintah. Hal ini tertuang dalam revisi Undang-undang (UU) BI Tahun 2004 di pasal 7 bahwa BI dalam menjalankan kebijakan harus mempertimbangkan kebijakan umum perekonomian pemerintah. UU ini merupakan revisi dari UU BI Tahun 1999.

“Harus mempertimbangkan kebijakan umum perekonomian pemerintah. Tidak tahu kenapa tiba-tiba ditulis BI harus masuk ke Sidang Kabinet. Kalau begitu, Menteri juga bisa ikut di rapat Gubernur BI dong. Jadi adil kan. Nanti kita minta,” papar JK.

Ketika dikonfirmasi mengenai pernyataan JK soal sindiran tersebut, Deputi Gubernur Senior BI Mirza Adityaswara bungkam. Ia sama sekali tidak menjawab sepatah katapun saat dimintai keterangan mengenai hal tersebut.

Jakarta -Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan, laju inflasi di November 2015 mencapai 0,21%. Secara kumulatif, Januari-Agustus 2015, laju inflasi adalah 2,37%. Sedangan inflasi tahunan (year on year) adalah 4,89%.

Demikian disampaikan Direktur Bidang Statistik Distribusi dan Jasa BPS, Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, dalam jumpa pers di kantor BPS, Jakarta, Selasa (1/12/2015).

“Kalau dilihat dari gambaran ini untuk kondisi November terendah dalam 5 tahun terakhir, year on yearterendah sepanjang 2015, inflasi inti juga terendah sepanjang 2015,” ujar Sasmito

Sasmito menambahkan, untuk komponen inti mengalami inflasi sebesar 0,16% dan inflasi inti sebesar 4,77%

“Inflasi inti sepanjang 2015 lumayan bandel, akhirnya bisa mengecil saat ini, dan membuka peluang moneter,” jelas Sasmito.

(drk/hns)

JAKARTA sindonews-Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro menegaskan sektor manufaktur harus menjadi sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi baru di masa mendatang untuk menggantikan periode ekspor komoditas yang sudah berakhir.

“Kunci untuk bertahan di situasi perlambatan seperti ini adalah membangkitkan sektor manufaktur karena ini merupakan sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi ke depan,” kata Menkeu dalam acara forum ekonomi di Jakarta, Kamis.

Menkeu menjelaskan Indonesia saat ini mengalami perlambatan ekonomi karena harga komoditas sedang berfluktuasi tajam dan permintaan dari negara tujuan ekspor ikut menurun, padahal dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, sektor ekspor menjadi pendukung utama pertumbuhan ekonomi.

“Era harga komoditas tinggi, ekspor bahan mentah serta investasi pada sektor perkebunan dan pertambangan sudah berakhir. Sudah jelas ada masalah sehingga kita kehilangan sumber pertumbuhan yang signifikan,” katanya.

Untuk itu sumber pertumbuhan yang baru harus dicari, dan pemerintah sudah menerbitkan paket kebijakan ekonomi yang berdampak jangka pendek serta menengah panjang untuk mendorong kinerja sektor manufaktur.

“Kita harus memikirkan era baru dan tidak melupakan sumber pertumbuhan, agar tidak kalah bersaing dengan negara ’emerging’ lainnya. Saat ini bahkan Vietnam dan Filipina tumbuhnya spektakuler, maka kita harus mencari strategi baru,” ujar Menkeu.

Dalam jangka pendek, lanjut dia, paket kebijakan ekonomi bertujuan untuk menjaga daya beli masyarakat, namun penerbitan paket dalam jangka menengah panjang bertujuan untuk penguatan investasi dan meningkatkan kinerja industri dalam negeri.

“Kita menawarkan deregulasi dan debirokratisasi, karena tanpa itu investor tidak akan masuk. Kita juga menawarkan insentif fiskal karena negara lain di ASEAN seperti Vietnam dan Filipina juga melakukan hal yang sama,” ujarnya.

Dengan demikian, Menkeu mengharapkan dalam beberapa tahun kedepan, sektor manufaktur yang pondasinya berasal dari peningkatan investasi bisa menjadi andalan baru pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.

“Sektor manufaktur memang hanya tumbuh 4,2 persen, tapi potensinya bisa mencapai 7 persen seperti di era 1990-1997. Ketika itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi didukung oleh manufaktur padat karya. Jadi lupakan bergantung pada harga komoditas seperti minyak, itu seperti menunggu kepastian terkait kebijakan suku bunga The Fed,” katanya.(ant/hrb)

 

Merdeka.com – Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla (JK) mengatakan, pertimbangan utama Indonesia berniat gabung dengan Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) untuk pangsa pasar yang lebih luas.

Selain itu, pemerintah juga berupaya meminimalisir adanya potensi diskriminasi produk dan barang asal Indonesia oleh negara-negara anggota pasar bebas buatan Amerika Serikat (AS) ini.

“Jadi nanti orang industri di anggota lainnya kayak Malaysia, Vietnam bisa dia barangnya lebih murah dari kita untuk diekspor ke negara-negara anggota mereka (TPP),” papar Wapres JK di Bandara Sepinggan, Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur, Jumat (20/11).

Indonesia, menurutnya, membutuhkan waktu sekitar satu tahun untuk melakukan kajian dokumen kepesertaan kelompok TPP. TPP sendiri, lanjut JK, belum efektif lantaran masing-masing negara yang sepakat untuk bergabung dengan TPP masih harus melakukan ratifikasi aturan-aturan di dalam negerinya masing-masing sebelum TPP berlaku.

“Kan ini mengikat jangka panjang jadi harus membentuk undang-undang, jadi masih harus diratifikasi oleh parlemen masing-masing,” ujar JK.

JAKARTA – Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo menyatakan, tawaran dari China terkait kenaikan bilateral currency swap arrangement (BCSA) dari sebelumnya USD15 miliar menjadi USD20 miliar adalah bentuk kombinasi antara pemerintah dan BI.

Dana tersebut nantinya akan digunakan untuk penguatan cadangan devisa dan bersifat stand by dan dana tersebut baru akan digunakan jika Bank Indonesia (BI) memerlukan untuk penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang asing.

“BCSA Ini adalah bentuk dan kombinasi oleh pemerintah dengan BI. Di dalam forum internasional juga disentuh dan dibicarakan oleh leaders, dalam hal ini Presiden Jokowi dan Presiden China. Kita ikuti China naikin BCSA,” ucap Agus di kantornya, Jakarta, Selasa (17/11/2015).

Ditempat yang sama, Deputi Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo menjelaskan, dalam prosesnya, BI akan berkomunikasi dengan pemerintah dalam hal ini Kementerian Keuangan.

“BI apresiasi dari USD15 menjadi USD20 miliar yang ditujukan likuiditi support. Ini bagian kami koordinasi, line of defend sektor eksternal kita. Ini merupakan bagian penguatan,” papar Perry.

Seperti yang diketahui, Pemerintah Indonesia sudah menerima tawaran dari China terkait kenaikan bilateral currency swap arrangement (BCSA) dari sebelumnya USD15 miliar menjadi USD20 miliar. Penerimaan tawaran ini salah satu kesepakatan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) dengan Presiden Xi Jinping di sela-sela pertemuan Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi (KTT) G20 di Antalya, Turki.

“Betul, bahwa China sudah menawarkan dan kita sudah menerima kenaikan bilateral currency swap arrangement dari tadinya USD15 miliar menjadi USD20 miliar,” ucap Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro.

Bambang menjelaskan, tambahan demand tersebut bisa digunakan seluruhnya untuk dukungan likuiditas.

“Hasil pertemuan Presiden kita dengan Presiden Xi Jinping adalah komitmen China meningkatkan investasi di sektor riil dan kemungkinan investasi di portofolio,” sambungnya.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/17/20/1251050/dana-usd20-miliar-dari-china-hasil-kombinasi-pemerintah-bi
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

 

JAKARTAsindo – Pengamat Ekonomi Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa menilai pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) sudah mampu mengeluarkan Indonesia dari zona krisis. Apalagi saat ini dunia sedang mengalami pelemahan ekonomi.

Meskipun ‎pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berada di kisaran 4,7%, namun ini sudah merupakan bentuk survive di tengah perlambatan ekonomi global.

“Kalau kita lihat ekonomi setahun ini ekonomi melambat, baik atau jelek? Belum tentu jelek, karena ekonomi global lebih jelek. Orang-orang di dalam negeri kok ribut sih? Karena menurut orang Indonesia ekonomi kita jelek. Padahal negara lain bilang bagus,” ungkapnya di Jakarta, Rabu (4/11/2015).

Menurut Yudhi, Indonesia telah mampu bertahan dari perlambatan ekonomi global yang menerpa semua negara, termasuk China. Bahkan, kini ekonomi Indonesia tengah membaik dan meninggalkan zona merah krisis.

“Titik terburuknya sudah hampir lewat. Ekonomi itu naik turun, titik terendahnya sudah lewat sekarang saatnya beli saham gede-gedean,” tegasnya.

Perbaikan ekonomi ini juga didukung dengan membaiknya kinerja menteri dalam Kabinet Kerja. Sebab beberapa kementerian melakukan debirokrasi dan deregulasi sebagai bentuk kerja mereka.

“Ada perubahan signifikan berapa bulan terakhir, Juni -Juli menterinya bilang semuanya bagus-bagus. Sekarang mereka sudah bangun dan buat kebijakan berjilid-jilid,” pungkasnya.
(dmd)

source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1058971/33/jokowi-diklaim-mampu-bawa-ri-keluar-zona-krisis-1446652528

Jakarta detik -Pemerintah akan menyediakan pinjaman dengan bunga rendah untuk perusahaan yang tengah dalam kesulitan dan terancam melakukan Pemutusan Hubungan Kerja (PHK) karyawan. Ini masuk dalam paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid III yang akan diluncurkan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi).

“Kalau perusahaan kewalahan kan bisa PHK. Nah, ini kita bantu dengan kredit bersubsidi. (bunga) di bawah komersial,” ujar Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro usai rapat koordinasi di Kantor Kemenko Perekonomian, Jakarta, Jumat (2/10/2015)

Bila melihat secara keseluruhan, bunga komersial yang berlaku sekarang di atas 10%. ‎Bahkan dimungkinkan bunga yang diberikan nantinya bisa setara dengan level suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI). Sehingga cukup membantu perusahaan untuk kembali memproduksi.

Instansi yang akan memberikan kredit tersebut adalah Lembaga ‎Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia (LPEI). Tahun ini telah diberikan penyertaan modal negara (PMN) sebesar Rp 1 triliun untuk mendukung kebijakan tersebut.

“LPEI intinya kan dapat PMN Rp 1 triliun akan dipakai sebagai dasar untuk pembiayaan itu. Jadi suku bunganya lebih rendah dari komersial,” imbuhnya.

LPEI tidak hanya melayani perusahaan yang berorientasi ekspor saja, melainkan perusahaan padat karya. Walaupun tidak harus orientasinya ekspor. Asalkan perusahaan dapat kembali beroperasi dan tidak melakukan PHK.

“Kalau bisa jamin orang yang di PHK bisa ditarik lagi mungkin saja bisa,” tegas Bambang.

(mkl/ang)

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta -Nilai tukar rupiah yang terus tertekan hingga menuju level 15.000 per dolar, mengundang kecemasan Indonesia bakal kembali mengalami krisis moneter seperti kondisi 1998. Sebab, kurs rupiah yang pada waktu itu melonjak dari level 2.500 menjadi 16.650 per dolar menjadi ambang batas pelaku pasar untuk menilai apakah krisis moneter memang akan terjadi.

Analis Esandar Arthamas Berjangka, Tony Mariano menyangkal bila indikator krisis moneter hanya mengacu pada depresiasi kurs rupiah. Sebab, menurutnya, meskipun rupiah melemah namun kondisi fundamental ekonomi Indonesia 1998 dan 2015 yang jelas berbeda membuat situasi krisis moneter jauh api dari panggang. “Rupiah yang melemah tidak serta merta menjadi indikator mata uang Garuda sudah berada pada krisis moneter,” kata dia.

Tony pun menjelaskan defisit transaksi berjalan pada waktu itu mencapai jumlah 32,5 persen dari produk domestik bruto (PDB). Cadangan devisa sendiri bahkan tercatat sebesar US$ 17 miliar. “Jauh berbeda dari kondisi cadangan devisa Indonesia saat ini yang berjumlah US$ 105,34 miliar,” sambung dirinya.

Tony justru mengingatkan krisis moneter kala itu juga didorong psikologi pelaku pasar yang panik. Sebagian dari mereka yang akhirnya tak percaya dengan pemerintah, kemudian beramai-ramai mengalihkan portofolio asetnya ke dalam bentuk dolar. “Makanya, agar tak menjadi krisis, psikologi pelaku pasar dan masyarakat harus terus dijaga,” jelasnya.

Tak jauh berbeda, ekonom BNI Securities, Heru Irvansyah juga mengatakan rupiah yang melemah bukan satu-satunya ukuran krisis moneter Indonesia. Pelemahan rupiah yang lebih dominan disebabkan faktor penguatan dolar, dan bukan hanya faktor memburuknya perekonomian domestik, menurutnya menjadi dasar penting untuk menegaskan Indonesia belum berada pada situasi krisis. “Depresiasi rupiah dan sebagian kurs regional lebih dipengaruhi spekulasi kenaikan Fed’s rate,” ucapnya.

Apalagi, bagi Heru, manajemen dan regulasi makro ekonomi Indonesia saat ini jauh lebih baik. Kondisi tersebut menambah kemungkinan Indonesia masih cukup aman dari situasi krisis. “Meskipun terbilang aman, namun sikap siaga krisis moneter harus dikedepankan.”

PDAT | MEGEL JEKSON

Jakarta (ANTARA News) – Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) menilai Kebijakan Ekonomi paket ke III harus berfokus pada sisi keperluan, yang selama ini masih belum terakomodir dalam kebijakan paket pertama dan kedua.

“Untuk paket kebijakan yang akan datang harus berfokus pada hal tersebut, karena selama ini dalam paket I dan II pemerintah cenderung masih fokus pada supply side,” kata Direktur Eksekutif INDEF, Enny Sri Hartati, di Jakarta, Sabtu.

Hal tersebut dikatakan dia, setelah diskusi bisnis dan ekonomi Politik yang digelar INDEF bertajuk Rupiah Tersungkur, Paket Ekonomi Meluncur,  di Kantor Indef Jalan Batu Merah, Pejaten Timur, Jakarta Selatan.

Pemerintah, lanjut Hartati, perlu berfokus pada sisi keperluan dengan mengembalikan daya beli masyarakat seperti dengan membuat kebijakan di sektor energi, salah satunya menurunkan harga BBM.

“Kita tahu persis penurunan harga BBM tidak langsung membuat harga-harga langsung turun, setelah sebelumnya melambung tinggi. Namun ini membantu penurunan biaya transportasi,” ujar dia.

Dia melihat, saat ini masyarakat dihadapkan oleh harga barang-barang yang mahal dan biaya transportasi mahal. Namun, ketika harga BBM diturunkan maka selisih dananya bisa dialokasikan untuk konsumsi.

Sementara itu, peneliti ekonomi INDEF, Imaduddin Abdullah, juga mengungkapkan pemerintah harus mengembalikan daya beli masyarakat dengan membuat kebijakan ekonomi yang berfokus pada sisi keperluan itu.

“Bisa dengan menggelontorkan paket stimulus ekonomi melalui pembangunan infrastruktur dan mengintensifkan dan ekstensifkan berbagai bentuk cash transfer,” ujarnya.

Menurut dia, fokus pada sisi keperluan itu diperlukan, karena jika melihat deflasi sebesar 0,05 persen pada bulan September 2015 dapat dimaknai rendahnya permintaan masyarakat sebagai dampak terpukulnya daya beli masyarakat dan aspek permintaan.

“Padahal sisi keperluan masyarakat memiliki dampak besar bagi ekonomi Indonesia dimana 55 persen PDB Indonesia berasal dari konsumsi domestik. Indonesia juga selamat dari krisis global 2008 karena ditopang konsumsi domestik,” ujarnya.

Editor: Ade Marboen

Merdeka.com – Hasil Survei Konsumen Bank Indonesia (SKBI) mengindikasikan bahwa tingkat keyakinan konsumen pada September 2015 melemah dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.

Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI, Tirta Sagara mengatakan, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) pada September 2015 tercatat sebesar 97,5, lebih rendah dibandingkan 112,6 pada bulan sebelumnya.

“Pelemahan IKK tersebut didorong oleh kedua komponen pembentuknya, yaitu Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi saat ini (IKE) dan Indeks Ekspektasi Konsumen (IEK) yang menurun dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya,” kata Tirta, seperti dikutip dari situs BI, Minggu (4/10).

Hasil survei juga mengindikasikan bahwa konsumen memperkirakan tekanan kenaikan harga meningkat pada Desember 2015. Hal ini terindikasi dari Indeks Ekspektasi Harga (IEH) 3 bulan mendatang yang naik 9,5 poin menjadi 164,5.

Peningkatan tertinggi diperkirakan terjadi pada kelompok bahan makanan dan kelompok makanan jadi, minuman, rokok, dan tembakau.

Sementara itu, sejalan dengan melemahnya optimisme kenaikan penghasilan, responden memperkirakan peningkatan jumlah tabungan pada 6 bulan mendatang juga melambat dari bulan sebelumnya. Di sisi lain, jumlah pinjaman 6 bulan mendatang diperkirakan meningkat dari bulan sebelumnya.

[idr]

JAKARTA kontan. Obligasi negara ritel (ORI) seri 012 laku keras. Wajar bila pemerintah berencana menaikkan target penyerapan ORI tahun ini. Loto Srinaita Ginting, Direktur SUN Direktur Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko (DJPPR) berujar bahwa pemesanan ORI sudah melampaui target sejak Kamis (1/10), dengan total pemesanan Rp 20,371 triliun.

Pemesanan berasal dari 33.533 orang investor ritel. Padahal masa pemesanan ORI012 berlangsung hingga 15 Oktober 2015.

“Kami berencana menaikkan target semula yang sebesar Rp 20 triliun,” ujar Loto, Jumat (2/10). Sayang, ia masih enggan menyebut target baru.

Jumat (2/10), permintaan naik lagi. Pelaksana Tugas Kepala Subdirektorat Pengelolaan Portofolio Surat Utang Negara (SUN) Novi Puspita Wardani menyebutkan, pemerintah sudah menerima permintaan ORI012 Rp 21,76 triliun atau 108,78% dari target indikatif Rp 20 triliun.

Kebanyakan pesanan berasal dari wilayah Jakarta (45,01%), Indonesia Barat kecuali Jakarta (42,42%), dan Indonesia bagian Tengah dan Timur (12,57%).

Ramainya permintaan ORI012 dirasakan oleh agen penjual. Corporate Secretary Bank Rakyat Indonesia Budi Satria mengatakan, tengah meminta tambahan jatah pemasaran ORI012 sekitar Rp 20 miliar kepada pemerintah. “Jatah kami sebesar Rp 1,07 triliun sudah habis dipesan,” kata Budi.

Vice President Wealth Management and Investment Bank Negara Indonesia Teddy Atmadja juga mengatakan, pemesanan ORI012 yang masuk sudah lebih dari Rp 3 triliun. Target penjualan perusahaan Rp 4,4 triliun.

Agen penjual lainnya, Reliance Securities juga sudah menjual hampir seluruh jatah yang diberikan pemerintah. Managing Director Reliance Securities Jurgan Usman mengatakan, permintaan yang sudah masuk sekitar Rp 180 miliar dari alokasi jatah sebesar Rp 200 miliar. “Sebanyak 65% permintaan berasal dari Jabodetabek. Sisanya dari Pulau Jawa dan luar Jawa,” ujarnya.

Sis Apik Wijayanto, Direktur Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) juga menyebut pemesanan ORI012 sudah mencapai 72% dari jatah yang diberikan oleh pemerintah.

Editor: Sanny Cicilia.

JAKARTA – Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) meminta penurunan suku bunga bank. Namun, hal ini dinilai bukan merupakan langkah Pemerintah untuk melakukan intervensi Bank Indonesia (BI).

Menteri Koordinator (Menko) Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution membantah anggapan permintaan Presiden Joko Widodo penurunan bunga bank merupakan langkah pemerintah mengintervensi otoritas moneter, BI. Menurutnya, permintaan Jokowi tersebut lebih ditekankan pada biaya-biaya administrasi perbankan yang dianggap terlalu tinggi sehingga menimbulkan inefisiensi bagi bank dan nasabah bank itu sendiri.

“Begini, yang coba dilihat bukan turunkan suku bunga bank melalui BI rate. Itu lain lagi. Bunga bank bisa dilihat dari biaya. Ada tabungan deposito. Terserah berapa rata-rata misal 6 persen. Ada biaya SDM, sewa gedung macam,” kata Darmin di Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu), Jakarta, Jumat (2/10/2015).

Darmin mencontohkan, tingginya bunga deposito yang ditawarkan oleh bank-bank besar. Dengan tawaran itu memang bank bisa mendapatkan sumber dana lebih banyak, namun dana tersebut harus dibayar mahal dan bisa mendorong tingginya komposisi biaya dana (cost of fund).

“Ditambah risiko bunga kredit. Yang ditengah ini kan urusan administratif bukan kebijakan moneter,” ucapnya.

Untuk membahas itu, pemerintah akan menggelar rapat pembahasan dengan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Menurutnya perbankan layaknya perusahaan umum lainnya yang memiliki beban administrasi dalam menjalankan operasionalnya.

“Jangan dianggap itu bicara dari segi kebijakan moneter. Biaya bank kan tidak beda amat dengan perusahaan lain,” ujarnya.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/10/02/20/1224977/jokowi-minta-turunkan-suku-bunga-berikut-penjelasan-darmin
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

JAKARTA. Di saat tak ada pihak yang memprediksi akan kemungkinan pembalikan arah rupiah, sejumlah analis melihat, pelemahan terhadap mata uang garuda ini mulai melambat. Pasalnya, defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia mulai menurun dan cadangan devisa Indonesia dinilai masih dalam kondisi sehat.

Sekadar mengingatkan, pada kuartal tiga lalu, rupiah melemah hingga 9% menjadi 14.651 per dollar AS. Ini merupakan pelemahan kuartalan terbesar dalam dua tahun terakhir. Sebagai perbandingan, indeks 20 mata uang negara berkembang mencatatkan pelemahan sebesar 8,3% pada periode yang sama.

Menurut Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy for Asia Barclays di Singapura, laju pelemahan rupiah akan melemah dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. “Fundamental makroekonomi Indonesia tidak menjamin penurunan mata uang seperti ini,” jelasnya.

Dia bilang, Indonesia merasa cukup nyaman dengan jumlah cadangan devisa yang dimiliki saat ini. Berdasarkan catatannya, cadangan devisa Indonesia terpangkas 5,8% pada tahun ini, lebih rendah dari Malaysia yang melorot hingga 18%.

Hal senada juga diungkapkan oleh Roy Teo, senior foreign exchange strategist ABN Amro Bank NV di Singapura. “Rupiah memang masih akan underperform dibanding mata uang Asia lainnya, namun tidak sebesar yang kita lihat beberapa waktu terakhir. Jika rupiah mengalami pelemahan cukup besar, kami pikir Bank Indonesia akan menaikkan suku bunga mereka untuk mempertahankan rupiah,” paparnya.

Tambahan informasi saja, pada kuartal lalu pelemahan rupiah merupakan yang terburuk di kawasan Asia setelah Malaysia yang mencapai 14%.

http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/analis-asing-optimistis-terhadap-rupiah
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Direktur Korporasi PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Royke Tumilaar mengatakan jumlah dana pihak ketiga (DPK) saat ini berlebih, tapi minim penyaluran pembiayaannya. “Ini karena faktor kondisi ekonomi. Ada sektor yang lesu dan mengalami penurunan, terutama yang bergantung sama komoditas,” katanya di kantornya, Kamis, 1 Oktober 2015.

Royke berharap paket kebijakan ekonomi yang digulirkan pemerintah dapat membantu menggerakkan kembali perekonomian di sektor riil. “Jadi kalau ada perubahan regulasi yang memudahkan atau memberikan insentif untuk pengusaha kita ikut senang,” katanya.

Menurut dia, ketika pengusaha mulai kembali menggerakkan lagi aktivitas usahanya, maka akan ada kebutuhan pembiayaan perbankan.

Untuk Bank Mandiri, kredit korporasi yang tengah digenjot adalah infrastruktur. Antara lain pembiayaan jalan tol, bandara, pelabuhan, kereta api, listrik, dan gas. Terkait dengan kredit bermasalah (nonperforming loan) di sektor korporasi, menurut Royke, sejauh ini nilainya masih rendah yakni sekitar 1 persen. “Kalau NPL kami enggak ada masalah, relatif kecil.”

Rendahnya NPL karena Bank Mandiri menerapkan diversifikasi pembiayaan korporasi, tidak hanya tergantung pada satu bisnis.

“Antarperusahaan bisa saling membantu menutup cashflow masing-masing, sehingga pembayaran kredit pun tidak terganggu,” ucap Rokye.

GHOIDA RAHMAH

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Suryamin memaparkan, tiga faktor yang menghambat deflasi September 2015 ini adalah beras, uang kuliah akademi dan perguruan tinggi, serta emas perhiasan.

Harga beras pada bulan September naik 2,04 persen dibandingkan sebulan sebelumnya (mtm). Kenaikan harga beras tersebut memberikan andil kepada inflasi September sebesar 0,08 persen.

“Ini sedang agak berkurang pasokannya, meskipun masih ada beberapa panen gadu,” kata Suryamin dalam paparan, Jakarta, Kamis (1/10/2015).

Kenaikan harga beras terjadi di 74 kota indeks harga konsumen (IHK), di mana kenaikan harga yang tertinggi terjadi di Bulukumba, Purwokerto, dan Pangkal Pinang masing-masing sebesar 6 persen.

Selain beras, dua komoditas lain yang menghambat deflasi September 2015 yakni uang kuliah akademi dan perguruan tinggi, dan emas perhiasan dengan kenaikan harga masing-masing 3,15 persen dan 3,44 persen (mtm). Kenaikan uang kuliah akademi dan perguruan tinggi memberikan andil terhadap inflasi September sebesar 0,05 persen.

Sementara itu, kenaikan harga emas perhiasan memberikan andil terhadap inflasi September sebesar 0,04 persen. “Kenaikan uang kuliah akademi dan perguruan tinggi karena memasuki tahun ajaran baru. Sedang, kenaikan harga emas perhiasan ini karena mengikuti harga internasional,” ucap Suryamin.

Sebagaimana diketahui, BPS melansir IHK pada September 2015 mengalami deflasi 0,05 persen. Akan tetapi deflasi ini lebih rendah daripada deflasi September 2013 yang mencapai 0,35 persen.

Suryamin memaparkan, sejumlah komoditas yang harganya turun dan membuat deflasi September 2015 sebesar 0,05 persen yaitu daging ayam ras, cabai merah, cabai rawit, bawang merah, minyak goreng, Pertamax, dan tarif angkutan udara.

Penulis : Estu Suryowati
Editor : Bambang Priyo Jatmiko

JAKARTA, KOMPAs.com – Daya saing Indonesia pada tahun 2015 berada di posisi 37 dunia, atau turun 3 peringkat dibandingkan tahun lalu. Sementara Swiss, Singapura, dan Amerika Serikat masih menjadi penghuni 3 besar negara paling berdaya saing di dunia pada tahun 2015.

Demikian The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 yang dikeluarkan  Forum Ekonomi Dunia (WEF), seperti dilansirBloomberg, Rabu (30/9/2015).

Laporan yang dilakukan terhadap 140 negara ini, disusun berdasarkan 113 indikator yang mempengaruhi produktivitas suatu negara. Indikator tersebut antara lain, infrastruktur, inovasi, dan lingkungan makro ekonomi.

Indonesia berada di posisi 37 dengan nilai 4,52.  Bandingkan dengan daya saing negara ASEAN lainnya, seperti Singapura yang berada di posisi 2 dengan nilai 5,68. Kemudian Malaysia naik dua peringkat ke posisi 18 (5,23), dan Thailand  (4,64) meski turun 1 peringkat, tetapi tetap berada di atas Indonesia dengan ada di posisi 32.

Sementara Filipina dan Vietnam meski ada di bawah Indonesia, tetapi ke dua negara itu berhasil naik signifikan. Filipina (4,39) berada di posisi 47, melompat 5 peringkat dari tahun lalu. Sedangan Vietnam (4,30) melejit 12 peringkat ke posisi 56.

 

Editor : Erlangga Djumena

JAKARTA-Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) Indonesia menilai, permasalahan ekonomi yang dihadapi Indonesia sangat kompleks mulai dari penurunan ekspor, defisit neraca perdagangan dan neraca berjalan.

&ldquo;Kondisi ini lemah dan rentan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS),&rdquo; kata Wakil Ketua Umum kadin Indonesia Bidang Perbankan dan Finansial, Rosan P Roeslani, kepada pers di Jakarta, Rabu (30/9).

Secara umum, menurut Rosan, pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor permintaan dan penawaran terhadap rupiah.

&ldquo;Faktor-faktor tersebut seperti aktivitas ekspor impor serta pergerakan investasi dari dan ke luar negeri. Faktor lain yang sangat mempengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah adalah inflasi,&rdquo; papar dia.

Inflasi di Indonesia, lanjut Rosan, sebesar 7,3% dan salah satu yang tertinggi di Asean.

&ldquo;Saat ini Indonesia tidak dalam kondisi krisis walaupun impor mengalami penurunan sebesar 17,8%. Posisi ekspor Indonesia berada pada posisi 89,8%, sedangkan impor pada posisi 84% dan ekspor anjlok karena harga komoditi minyak sawit, karet, batubara mengalami penurunan&rdquo; ujarnya.

Rosan menambahkan, pemerintah harus memperkuat sektor industri untuk menghadapi melemahnya situasi ekonomi,

&ldquo;Industri harus kuat terutama dalam sektor pertanian, Maritim, pariwisata dan jasa,&rdquo; tutur Rosan.

Realisasi belanja pemerintah pusat dari APBNP 2015 tercatat 33,1% hingga semester I 2015. Sementara target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dipatok 5,7% bsesuai APBNP 2015, namun pertumbuhan di triwulan I hanya mencatatkan 4,71%.

Di sisi lain, berbagai lembaga keuangan internasional telah menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, didorong oleh keberlanjutan pelambatan ekonomi global, dan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan I 2015 yang di jauh di bawah ekspektasi.(imq)

 

http://id.beritasatu.com/business/permasalahan-ekonomi-indonesia-sangat-kompleks/128604
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

butterfly

Kabar24.com, JAKARTA– Presiden Joko Widodo  (Jokowi) menyemprot sejumlah menteri dalam rapat terbatas yang digelar di Istana Presiden, Selasa, (29/9/2015).

Jokowi marah lantaran instruksinya soal pemangkasan prosedur investasi belum dijalankan kementerian terkait. Akibatnya, beberapa investor masih mendapat kesulitan untuk menanamkan modalnya di Indonesia.

“Saya minta di bawah koordinasi Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian segera membuat langkah terobosan yang cepat dalam mengatasi beberapa kendala, terutama perizinan investasi,” kata Jokowi dengan nada meninggi.

Beberapa waktu lalu, Jokowi sudah memberikan empat instruksi untuk perbaikan iklim investasi di Indonesia. Pertama, Jokowi memerintahkan pengumpulan seluruh regulasi perizinan investasi agar segera dipermudah.

“Kalau perlu dihapus atau direvisi sehingga lebih memudahkan,” ujarnya.

Kedua, Presiden Indonesia ketujuh itu juga meminta agar masalah pembebasan lahan segera dibenahi. “Sehingga sinyal investasi bisa dilihat.”

Masalah ketiga yang menjadi sorotan Jokowi adalah soal penambahan kapasitas pembangkit listrik.

Dia meminta Kementrian Energi memastikan para investor mendapat kepastian soal ketersediaan pasokan listrik.

“Pasokan listrik harus betul-betul dijelaskan bahwa pada tahun kesekian sudah ada tambahan pasokan, mereka (calon investor) menunggu itu,” katanya.

Terakhir, Jokowi meminta pembenahan mekanisme ketenagakerjaaan dan sistem pengupahan.

Keempat instruksi itu rupanya belum dijalankan kementrian terkait. Berdasarkan laporan Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo), proses pengurusan investasi di Indonesia masih berbelit-belit.

Dengan nada meninggi, mantan Wali Kota Solo itu mengatakan Indonesia hanya menduduki posisi keenam dalam hal kemudahan berinvestasi di kawasan ASEAN. “Prosedur yang harus dilalui masih 10 tahapan. Singapura dan Malaysia hanya 3 tahapan. Berarti 70 persen ini harus dihilangkan,” ujarnya.

Jokowi juga menilai waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk memulai usaha di Indonesia masih terlalu lama, yaitu 52,5 hari. Sedangkan, Singapura hanya 2,5 hari dan Malaysia hanya 5,5 hari.

“Coba dicatat, malu kita. Karena itu, semua harus segera mengumpulkan hal yang berkaitan dengan perizinan. Betul-betul harus punya langkah konkret yang dampaknya bisa dirasakan langsung dunia usaha.”

Jokowi meminta setiap menteri kuat mengendalikan bawahannya dalam hal kebijakan. Dia meminta menteri tak terbawa arus pejabat setingkat eselon 1 dan 2.

“Kalau terbawa arus bawahannya, sudah lupakan mengenai ini. Apalagi kalau tidak punya keberanian lakukan terobosan ini, sudah lupakan,” ujarnya.

Hadir dalam rapat terbatas itu antara lain Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution, Menteri Perdagangan Thomas Trikasih Lembong, dan Menteri Agraria Ferry Mursyidan Baldan.

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KOMPAS.com – Sekitar sebulan menjelang pemerintahan Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla (JK) genap setahun, kado pahit itu datang lagi. Jumlah penduduk miskin Indonesia bertambah.  Kemiskinan kerap diungkit di panggung kampanye, namun setelah itu lantas dilupakan dan seakan diacuhkan usai hingar bingar pemilu berlalu.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan, jumlah penduduk miskin di Indonesia pada Maret 2015 mencapai 28,59 juta orang (11,22 persen dari total penduduk), meningkat 860.000 orang dibandingkan September 2014 yang sebesar 27,73 juta orang.

Data indikator kemiskinan BPS itu molor berbulan-bulan dari bisanya yang dirilis disetiap pertengahan tahun. Pidato kenegaraan atau pidato nota keuangan oleh Presiden Jokowi pada 14 Agustus 2015 lalu pun “sepi”  menyinggung indikator kemiskinan ini. Padahal biasanya, data ini disampaikan dalam pidato kenegaraan atau nota keuangan menjelang 17 Agustus di Gedung MPR DPR RI.

Molornya data ini menjadi keanehan dan sedikit menimbulkan kecurigaan di mata beberapa kalangan, ada yang ditutup tutupi. Begitu kesan yang muncul. Namun BPS beralasan, molornya data indikator kemiskinan utamanya adalah karena  jumlah responden yang disurvei Maret 2015 lebih banyak empat kali lipat dibandingkan periode sebelumnya.

“Karena memperbanyak sampel, menjadi empat kali lipat dari yang biasanya. Yang biasanya kita sampelnya 75.000 rumah tangga, sekarang 300.000 rumah tangga. Jadi, yang tadinya kita bisa mengerjakan satu bulan, sekarang empat bulan,” kata Kepada BPS Suryamin akhir Agustus lalu.

Di luar itu, data BPS begitu menohok. Indeks keparahan kemiskinan pada Maret 2015  meningkat dibandingkan Maret 2014, Maret 2013, bahkan Maret 2012 silam. Indeks keparahan kemiskinan pada Maret 2015 adalah mencapai  0,535, sementara Maret 2014 yaitu 0,435, Maret 2013 sebesar 0,432, dan Maret 2012 sebesar 0,473.

Tak cukup di situ, kado pahit itu kian lengkap karena indeks kedalaman kemiskinan yang mengukur jarak pengeluaran penduduk miskin dengan garis kemiskinan juga semakin parah. Pada Maret 2015, indeks kedalaman kemiskinan di level 1,971, meningkat dibandingkan Maret 2014 yaitu 1,753, Maret 2013 di level 1,745, dan Maret 2013 sebesar 1,880.

Menurut BPS, tingkat inflasi September 2014-Maret 2015 sebesar 4,03 persen menjadi faktor utama penyebab kemiskinan. Kedua, kenaikan harga pangan yaitu  beras yang melonjak 14,48 persen,cabai rawit 26,28 persen, dan gula pasir naik 1,92 persen.

Ketiga, upah buruh tani per hari pada Maret 2015 turun 1,34 persen dibandingkan September 2014, yaitu dari Rp 39.045 menjadi Rp 38.522. Dan faktor keempat yaitu tingkat inflasi perdesaan yang mencapai 4,40 persen.

Tenggelam di Kebisingan Elite
Di usia yang akan genap setahun pada 20 Oktober 2015 nanti, pemerintahan Jokowi-JK begitu banyak “bumbu”. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melemah disertai tak terkendalikan harga barang kebutuhan pokok, hingar bingar politik, dan masih carut marutnya penegakan hukum membuat ketiga bidang itu disorot tajam rakyat dari berbagai penjuru negeri —  aksi turun ke jalan atau aksi kritik pedas lewat media sosial.

Tak puas dengan kinerja itu, Presiden Jokowi “mengocok” ulang para kabinetnya. Nama-nama seperti Rahmat Gobel, Andrinof Chaniago, Indroyono Soesilo, dan Tedjo Eddi angkat kaki dari jajaran kabinet. Nama-nama kondang misalnya Darmin Nasution dan  Rizal Ramli masuk menepati pos Kementerian Koordinator Perekonomian dan Kemaritiman. Harapan perbaikan itu mulai muncul.

Lantas apa yang terjadi? harapan yang mulai mekar itu justru kuncup lagi. Menteri baru Rizal Ramli justru langsung mengkritik keras pemerintahan dimana ia berada di dalamnya. Rencana bisnis BUMN seperti Garuda, Mandiri, BNI, PLN, Pelindo II kena jurus “kepretan rajawali”.

Ya mantan Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian era Presiden Abdurrahman Wahid itu memang menasbihkan diri sebagai rajawali yang gemar “ngepret” sana sini — semua hal yang dinilainya tak tepat.

Tak ayal, aksi itu membuat panas kuping Menteri BUMN Rini Soemarno. Wanita yang juga mantan ketua tim transisi Jokowi itu pula langsung menegaskan tak ada seorang pun, termasuk menteri, yang boleh mengganggu ranah kerjanya yaitu urusan bisnis BUMN.

Tak cuma Rini, Menteri Energi dan Sumberdaya Mineral Sudirman Said pun kena kepretan Rizal Ramli. Program 35.000 megawatt pembangkit listrik dinilai Rizal tak realistis. Target 5 tahun itu pun diminta direvisi. Wapres JK bereaksi keras, kemudian disambut ajakan debat terbuka oleh Rizal Ramli terkait program itu.

Kebisingan di bidang ekonomi dibuat makin bising. Keputusan Badan Reserse Kriminal (Bareskrim) Mabes Polri menggeledah Kantor Pelindo II berbuntut panjang. Direktur Utama Pelindo II RJLino tak terima kantornya digeledah atas dugaan korupsi pengadaan mobile crane. Di sini semua menjadi makin bising.

Saat penggeledahan berlangsung, RJ Lino mengadu kepada Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional Sofyan Djalil. Lewat sambungan telepon, Lino mengancam akan mengundurkan diri karena perlakukan Bareskrim yang dinilainya tak pantas.

Di tempat terpisah, Menteri BUMN Rini Soemarno menelepon Kapolri Jenderal Pol Badrodin Haiti dan meminta penanganan kasus hukum tak gaduh seperti yang terjadi di Pelindo II. Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla kembali bereaksi, kali ini dia mengatakan penegak hukum seharusnya tak memperkarakan suatu kebijakan.

Tak berselang lama, Kapolri mencopot Kepala Bareskrim Komjen Budi Waseso dan memutasinya ke Badan Narkotika Nasional (BNN). Beberapa waktu lalu, Komisi III dan Komisi VI membentuk panitia kerja yang mengusut tuntas kasus Pelindo II. Kebisingan itu belum akan segera usai, nampaknya.

Kebisingan itu berlangsung di tengah kondisi perekonomian Indonesia yang melambat. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS anjlok,  indeks harga saham gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia terus melorot, pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) pun mengintai. Angka kemiskinan berpotensi terus meningkat.

Pengamat Ekonomi sekaligus Direktur Eksekutif Institute National Development and Financial (Indef), Enny Sri Hartati mengatakan, para elite sudah seharusnya melihat dan menyadari bahwa kondisi ekonomi Indonesia saat ini ada di tahap kritis. Dia pun menuntut pemerintah untuk padu dan tak lagi menonjolkan kebisingan.

“Jangan sampai orang dalam kondisi kritis ini diganggu dengan berbagai macam kebisingan yang tidak perlu, berantem sendiri tidak perlu, itu memicu kondisi yang semakin tidak stabil. Sekarang di antara elite, eksekutif terutama ini harus ada keterpaduan dan setiap kebijakan apapun yang dikeluarkan,” ujar dia akhir pekan lalu.

“Setiap komentar atau statement apapun dari menteri itu yang akan dijadikan acuan dan panduan dunia usaha. Jadi begitu statemennya itu berbeda-beda pasti ini akan membingungkan, kebingungan itu juga akan menimbulkan berbagai macam interpretasi yang berbeda-beda,” kata Enny.

Para elite sudah seharusnya menghentikan segala hal yang bisa menciptakan ketidakpastian. Segera memikirkan cara ampuh mengentaskan masyarakat dari kemiskinan.  Segera ciptakan lapangan kerja, stabilisasi harga kebutuhan pokok, lakukan kebijakan yang mendorong daya beli masyarakat, serta fokus bekerja tanpa harus menonjolkan kebisingan.

Vietnam’s economy grew 6.5% in January-September

ATSUSHI TOMIYAMA, Nikkei staff writer

HANOI — Vietnam’s gross domestic product expanded 6.5% in real terms between January and September, marking the sharpest year-on-year growth in five years for the period.

The manufacturing sector led the growth, with exports increasing for such items as mobile phones, textile products and shoes. The Southeast Asian country could post the highest full-year growth in the region.

Vietnam is a major smartphone production base, home to factories run by such companies as Samsung Electronics and Nokia. Mobile phone exports jumped 34%, while domestic sales also grew, especially of high-end smartphones.

Another major export, textiles, grew 11%. The Chinese currency’s devaluation in mid-August helped as Vietnam imports a large amount of materials from the country.

The weaker yuan also helped hold down inflation — Vietnam is a major importer of Chinese food and daily goods.

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INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Fraksi PDI Perjuangan melihat sepanjang 2015 rupiah telah melemah lebih dari 18% bila dibandingkan dengan kurs awal Januari 2015.

Koordinator Bidang Ekonomi Fraksi PDI Perjuangan Hendrawan Supratiko mengatakan, sepanjang 2014 rupiah hanya melemah sekitar 1,74% yaitu dari Rp12.160 per dolar menjadi Rp12.385 di awal Januari 2015.

Dia menjelaskan pelemahan rupiah tersebut disebabkan beberapa faktor. Dalam bidang moneter yakni antisipasi investor atas rencana kenaikan suku bunga AS.

“Lalu, quantitative easing di Eropa, ketidakjelasan penyelesaian krisis utang Yunani dan kebijakan devaluasi Yuan yang kemungkinan diikuti negara lain,” katanya di Gedung DPR Senayan, Jakarta, Selasa (29/9).

Selanjutnya, kata Hendrawan, pada saat waktu yang sama, harga komoditas ekspor utama Indonesia mengalami pelemahan dan beban pembayaran utang. “Dalam dolar (bunga dan cicilan) serta kebutuhan terhadap dolar pada sektor korporasi termasuk BUMN terus meningkat,” jelasnya.

Dia menegaskan pelemahan rupiah yang berlanjut akan menimbulkan dampak berantai apabila tidak diantisipasi seperti mengganggu kekuatan fundamental ekonomi nasional, menambah beban pembayaran utang.

“Pelemahan rupiah juga memukul sektor industri dengan komponen impor yang tinggi dan memberi tekanan terhadap inflasi,” tutupnya.

Sebelumnya, Fraksi PDI Perjuangan pimpinan DPR untuk segera mengadakan pertemuan konsultasi dengan pimpinan BPK untuk miminta BPK melakukan pemeriksaan kinerja Bank Indonesia.

“Pemeriksaan dengan tujuan tertentu terhadap BI sebagaimana diatur dalam UU No 15/2004 tentang pemeriksaan pengelolaan dan tanggung jawab keuangan negara dan UU No 15/2006 tentang BPK,” kata Hendrawan.

Menurutnya, pemeriksaan terhadap BI untuk melihat kinerja dan efektifitas manajemen pengelolaan nilai tukar rupiah, termasuk intervensi BI di pasar valuta.

“Jangan sampai terjadi kekurangefektifan pengelolaan nilai tukar yang dilakukan BI membawa dampak terhadap kinerja perekonomian nasional, dan kinerja pemerintah dengan merugikan masyarakat,” jelasnya.[yha] – See more at: http://nasional.inilah.com/read/detail/2241134/ini-faktor-pelemahan-rupiah-versi-fraksi-pdip#sthash.iC00zsj9.dpuf

 

Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal Franky Sibarani mengatakan pemerintah akan memberikan kemudahan perizinan bagi para investor agar dapat melakukan pembangunan seusai mendapatkan izin prinsip.

“Kami mencoba &rsquo;short cut&rsquo; agar izin investasi itu bisa dilakukan investor sambil melakukan konstruksi dan mengurus izin yang lain, jadi secara pararel bisa diproses sambil berjalan,” katanya seusai mengikuti rapat koordinasi membahas perizinan investasi di Jakarta, Senin.

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JAKARTA-Franky menjelaskan selama ini setelah mendapatkan izin prinsip, investor harus mengurus perizinan yang lain dan baru bisa melakukan pembangunan konstruksi setelah keseluruhan proses izin tersebut selesai.

Dengan adanya proses deregulasi terhadap perizinan tersebut, tambah dia, maka setelah mendapatkan izin prinsip, investor bisa langsung memulai proses konstruksi agar bisa mempercepat masa produksi.

“Izin prinsip dan konstruksi umumnya dibutuhkan enam bulan hingga setahun. Proses itu bersama izin-izin yang lain membutuhkan waktu yang tidak cepat. Kita akan mempercepat itu,” ujar Franky.

Ia menambahkan kemudahan proses perizinan ini lebih diwacanakan untuk membuka investasi di kawasan industri yang telah ditetapkan oleh pemerintah agar lebih mudah pengawasannya dalam konteks lingkungan hidup.

Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Menteri Perindustrian Saleh Husin menambahkan pemerintah juga siap memberikan insentif bagi investor yang ingin membangun di kawasan terpencil maupun Indonesia bagian timur.

“Kita ingin ada rangsangan agar industri cepat berkembang, terutama di daerah timur seperti Sulawesi, Kalimantan dan Papua. Bentuknya bisa bermacam-macam, ada tax holiday, tax allowance termasuk kemudahan di BKPM,” ujarnya.

Selain itu, pemerintah ingin mempermudah para pengusaha manufaktur untuk mendapatkan bahan baku, karena selama ini bahan baku dalam kondisi saat ini sulit didapatkan dan harus diperoleh melalui impor.

“Berbagai macam izin di sektor kementerian harus dipermudah agar industri lebih mudah mendapatkan bahan baku, agar bisa menciptakan nilai tambah, melahirkan lapangan kerja lebih banyak dan mendorong ekspor,” kata Saleh.(ant/hrb)

 

http://id.beritasatu.com/business/investor-langsung-konstruksi-seusai-peroleh-izin/128459
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

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Jakarta -Jumlah pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) seolah tak terbendung, sebagai dampak pelambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kementerian Tenaga Kerja mencatat, per September 2015 total pekerja terkena PHK mencapai 43.085 orang. Jumlah ini meningkat 62% dari catatan Kemenaker PHK per Agustus 2015, yaitu26.506 orang.

Direktur Pencegahan Penyelesaian Perselisihan Hubungan Industrial (PPHI) Kemenaker, Sahat Sinurat melalui keterangan tertulisnya menyatakan, ada 4 sektor penyumbang PHK terbesar yaitu garmen, industri sepatu, elektronik, dan batu bara.

Berikut data PHK di tiap provinsi di Indonesia.

DKI Jakarta 1.546 orang

  • Jakarta Pusat 553 orang
  • Jakarta Selatan 607 orang
  • Jakarta Timur 25 orang
  • Jakarta Barat 331 orang
  • Jakarta Utara 30 orang

Banten 7.294 orang

  • Kota Tangerang 200 orang
  • Kabupaten Tangerang 6.588 orang
  • Kabupaten Tangerang Selatan 43 orang
  • Kabupaten Lebak 243 orang
  • Kabupaten Serang 196 orang
  • Kota Serang 24 orang

Jawa Barat 7.779 orang

  • Kabupaten Bekasi 2.197 orang
  • Kabupaten Bogor 737 orang
  • Kabupaten Karawang 283 orang
  • Kabupaten Bandung 4.562 orang

Jawa Tengah 3.370 orang

  • Kota Semarang 1.073 orang
  • Kabupaten Semarang 1.240 orang
  • Kabupaten Sragen 249 orang
  • Kabupaten Magelang 232 orang
  • Kabupaten Pekalongan 111 orang
  • Kabupaten Purworejo 200 orang
  • Kabupaten Kudus 100 orang
  • Kabupaten Klaten 50 orang
  • Kabupaten Batang 115 orang

Jawa Timur 5.630 orang

  • Kota Surabaya 615 orang
  • Kabupaten Sidoarjo 378 orang
  • Kabupaten Pasuruan 1.244 orang
  • Kabupaten Probolinggo 1.493 orang
  • Kabupaten Bondowoso 41 orang
  • Kabupaten Jember 75 orang
  • Kota Malang 1.261 orang
  • Kota Batu 144 orang
  • Kabupaten Mojokerto 57 orang
  • Kabupaten Kediri 204 orang
  • Kabupaten Tulungagung 118 orang

Kalimantan Timur 10.721 orang

  • Kota Balikpapan 7.088 orang
  • Kota Berau 1.291 orang
  • Kabupaten Kutai Barat 1.109 orang
  • Kabupaten Kutai Kartanegara 567 orang
  • Kota Samarinda 360 orang
  • Kabupaten Kutai Timur 158 orang
  • Kota Bontang 76 orang
  • Kabupaten Panajam Pasir Utara 50 orang
  • Kabupaten pasir 22 orang

Sumatera Utara 398 orang

  • Kota Medan 398 orang

Kepulauan Riau 6.347 orang

  • Kota Batam 6.347 orang

(dnl/dnl)

jatuh hat1 : RESESI amrik v. STRONG $ 2016 (210116)