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untuk APA: ekonomi eurozone LOM PUL1H (2)

October 28, 2016

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Kabar24.com, BRUSSELS – Kemunculan Donald Trump dengan perilakunya yang khas ternyata menimbulkan kekhawatiran di benua biru, Eropa.

Para pemimpin Eropa khawatir atas fenomena Trump dan apa artinya bagi kondisi yang dapat diramalkan mengenai kemitraan Amerika, sekalipun ia kalah, kata seorang ahli senior di German Marshall Found, yang berpusat di Brussels.

Ian O. Lesser, Direktur Senior bagi Kebijakan Luar Negara GMF, mengeluarkan pernyataan itu dalam wawancara dengan Xinhua.

“Juga ada keprihatinan bahwa pencalonan Trump dapat makin membuat berani gerakan populis sayap-kanan di Eropa, kembali, sekalipun ia kalah,” kata Lesser, sebagaimana dikutip Xinhua –yang dipantau di Jakarta, Jumat  (28/10/2016) siang.

Ia menyatakan sikap yang dikendalikan oleh identitas dan anti-globalisasi yang penuh kemarahan yang terlihat dalam kampanye Trump tentu akan mengingatkan banyak orang Eropa mengenai debat Brexit dan hasilnya yang mengejutkan.

Inggris telah memberi suara untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa setelah kampanye yang dipimpin Partai Independen UK (UKIP) beberapa bulan lalu.

Seperti UKIP, kelompok sayap-kanan jauh seperti French Front National dan Alternative fur Deutschland di Jerman menikmati popularitas yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, sementara partai sayap-kanan telah menguasai pemerintahan di beberapa negara Eropa.

“Seperti di banyak masyarakat lain, sikap populis yang tegas, dan kadang kala penuh kemarahan telah menjadi kekuatan di kancah politik,” kata Lesser.

“Ada revolusi rakyat terhadap kaum elite dan proyek mereka di seluruh bagian penting spektrum politik, termasuk sayap-kanan konservatif, dan sayap-kiri, seperti ditegaskan oleh dukungan mengejutkan buat Bernir Sanders,” katanya.

Kemunculan Donald Trump dan Bernie Sanders sebagai calon tangguh dalam pemilihan umum AS 2016 dipandang oleh banyak orang sebagai kemunculan kembali kaum populis di kancah politik Amerika hari ini, yang juga mengungkapkan beberapa fakta penting mengenai sistem politik AS.

“Beberapa masalah utama bukan baru, termasuk biaya keuangan yang sangat besar dalam upaya seseorang menjadi presiden, dan peran uang dalam politik Amerika,” kata Lesser.

“Kampanye Trump memperlihatkan kekuatan selebritas dan keterbukaan sistem AS –politik sebagai “merek”, dan sebaliknya,” ia menambahkan.

Ketika berbicara mengenai dampaknya pada ekonomi global setelah pemilihan umum, Lesser juga menyatakan sikap kedua calon ke arah kesepakatan perdagangan baru telah terkikis tajam dalam musim pemilihan umum, yang “membuat rumit penampilan bagi TPP, TTIP dan gagasan lain”.

Dalam beberapa bulan belakangan, demonstrasi terhadap Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) meletus di seluruh Jerman, Belgia, Prancis dan beberapa negara lain Eropa. Setelah 14 babak perundingan yang melelahkan, TTIP masih jauh dari kesepakatan pada saat ini.

“Dalam hal sikap negatif ke arah kedua calon utama, ini telah menjadi tahun pemilihan umum yang sangat tidak biasa,” ia menambahkan.

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Data resmi yang dipublikasikan menyatakan, rasio utang pemerintah terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 19-negara zona euro turun pada akhir kuartal kedua.

Angka rasio utang berdiri di 91,2 persen, sedikit turun dari 91,3 persen pada akhir tiga bulan pertama 2016, kata Eurostat, badan statistik Uni Eropa (EU).

Dalam Uni Eropa yang lebih luas, rasio menurun dari 84,5 persen menjadi 84,3 persen, kata lembaga itu.

Ada perbedaan besar di antara negara-negara anggota karena Yunani yang terlilit utang memperlihatkan rasio tertinggi 179,2 persen dari April ke Juni, sementara Estonia mencatat angka terendah 9,7 persen.

Italia, yang bank menderita krisis utang, melaporkan rasio setinggi 135,5 persen, kata Eurostat.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/10/25/20/1523602/rasio-utang-terhadap-pdb-negara-uni-eropa-turun
Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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A two-year high in inflation is also helping

The British pound has jumped to its highest level in over a week Tuesday after a lawyer for Theresa May’s government said parliament will “very likely” have to ratify an eventual agreement between the U.K. and the European Union when the country leaves the bloc.

The comments are significant because the majority of MPs are opposed to leaving the EU, and are upset at indications that the government will not even try to keep the U.K. in the EU’s Single Market as it tries to negotiate the ‘Brexit’ settlement.

The U.K. sends over 40% of its exports to the EU, and the financial services sector, which accounts for over 10% of gross domestic product, is particularly dependent on unconstrained access to the Single Market. The pound has plunged in the last two weeks on fears that this access would be lost. If parliament were to reject the government’s draft settlement (and public opinion were to swing back behind Remaining), it is possible that the U.K. may stay in the EU after all.

James Eadie, who is representing May’s government in a High Court challenge over who has the right to trigger divorce talks, said members of parliament would very probably be allowed a say on the final exit deal.

“The government view at the moment is it is very likely that any such agreement will be subject to ratification” Eadie said.

Somewhat confusingly, Attorney General Jeremy Wright–also arguing the government’s case–however maintained that once the government formally notifies the rest of the EU of its decision to leave, the process would be irrevocable. That’s not only at odds with Eadie’s comments, but also with a broad hint from EU Council President Donald Tusk last weekthat “no Brexit” was still an option–“even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”

By lunchtime in London. the pound was at $1.2272, up 0.7% from late trading on Monday, having briefly traded above $1.23 earlier. It’s still down 17% from the day before the fateful vote to leave the EU in June, though.

Eadie’s comments weren’t the only thing supporting sterling Tuesday, though. Data published earlier by the Office for National Statistics showedinflation hit a 21-month high of 1% in September–and that is even before the weakness of the pound feeds through into higher import prices. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said Tuesday that “forecasts are starting to migrate towards a 3% CPI (consumer price index) next year,” above the Bank of England’s inflation target of 2%. That may restrict the BoE’s freedom to support the economy with further interest rate cuts or quantitative easing.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Friday that the Bank would likely “look through” a short-term increase in inflation caused by sterling’s depreciation. Most analysts expect it to cut its key Base Rate for a second time since the referendum between now and the end of the year. However, the Bank is coming under increasing pressure from May’s party to end a period of ultra-low interest rates that has depressed income for (largely Conservative-voting) savers and pensioners.

This article originally appeared on Fortune.com

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bbc.com: HARD BREXIT : A group of major business lobby groups has written an open letter urging the government to preserve barrier free trade with Europe.

The letter is signed by leaders of the CBI and manufacturers’ body the EEF.

It says the way in which the UK leaves the EU and on what terms is critical for jobs and investment in the UK.

It says defaulting to trading by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would leave 90% of UK goods trade with the EU subject to new tariffs.

The letter says that would mean 20% in extra costs for the UK’s food and drink industry and 10% for car producers.

These significant costs would affect British exporters and importers, as well as those in their supply chains, it adds.

“We respect the result of the referendum, but the government must make sure that the terms of the deal to leave ensure stability, prosperity and improved living standards,” the groups write.

“Every credible study that has been conducted has shown that [the] WTO option would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy and those of our trading partners.”

The letter calls for the government to “give certainty to business by immediately ruling this option out under any circumstances”.

‘Safeguard prosperity’

One of the signatories, CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn, said the letter called for “ruling out of the really worst options, to reassure investors that the UK was still a really good place to invest”.

“There is a negotiation that’s going to take place, and I think businesses completely understand that,” she said.

“But falling into WTO rules in only 29 months from now, would mean up to 90% of goods could potentially have tariffs on them, there would not be the passports for our services industries.”


Analysis: Theo Leggett, business correspondent

It increasingly looks as though Britain is heading for a so-called “hard Brexit” – and business leaders are becoming very worried.

At the Conservative Party conference, Theresa May made it clear the country would not remain in the EU’s single market if doing so meant losing control of immigration. Yet European leaders insist that free movement of goods and services comes hand in hand with the free movement of people.

The uncertainty – and the prospect of trade with the EU becoming subject to tariffs and other trade barriers – has been driving down the value of the pound, which has been trading against the dollar at a level not seen in more than three decades.

So this letter offers a stark warning. The UK, it says, needs access to the single market. Leaving the EU and reverting to international trade rules would do serious and lasting damage to the UK economy. Costs for businesses would go up. Jobs could be lost.

But this message isn’t new – and the evidence suggests the prime minister has other priorities. So will she be listening?


The letter she signed also says there is a wealth of evidence to suggest EU negotiations will not be completed within the Article 50 two-year timeframe.

“Many areas of regulation now up for discussion are highly complicated… The government should therefore secure agreement of a transitional period, to ensure that businesses can continue to operate with no ‘cliff edge’ change to current circumstances until regulatory and legal changes can be implemented,” it says.

It concludes that the UK voted to leave the EU but not to cause living standards to decline: “We want a Brexit that safeguards future prosperity for everyone across the UK.”

Mike Cherry, Federation of Small Businesses chairman, said the effect of uncertainty on the market was reflected in its quarterly index, showing confidence at its lowest level since 2012, and causing problems for small businesses.

But he added: “On the other side of that, there are many small businesses looking to overseas markets to export their goods, products and services. For them, this does present a tremendous opportunity to grasp more of the market overseas.”

‘Sovereign country’

At the Conservative Party conference last Sunday, Prime Minister Theresa May said she would trigger Article 50, the clause needed to start the process of exiting the EU, by the end of March 2017.

She said a “trade-off” between controlling immigration and trade with Europe was the “wrong way of looking at things”.

Britain, Mrs May said, had voted to become a “fully-independent, sovereign country” and would “decide for ourselves” how immigration was controlled alongside “the best deal possible” with the EU.

 

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investing.com: Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Commerzbank (LON:CZB) are discussing merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.

The banks are desperately seeking ways to cut costs and improve profitability. Their plans include restructuring and job cuts using highly unconventional measures. In June, Reuters cited anonymous sources saying that Commerzbank was exploring the option of hoarding billions of euros as a way of avoiding paying a penalty to the European Central Bank, thanks to negative interest rates.

Their main problems derive mostly from low and negative interest rates. These lenders are used to depending on interest-rate margins for income while offering some services to depositors at either low or no cost. Low interest rates have significantly eroded their ability to make money. It has become difficult for German banks to incentivize customers to deposit their money in their vaults. These inefficiencies — and the intense competition within the German banking sector — have already led to serious financial difficulties. If one combines these factors with the new challenge of declining interest rates, what possible positive impact can they expect to incur?

Interestingly, rates are not just low within the context of American history but they also happen to be at their lowest levels ever in over 5,000 years of civilization.

That’s 5,000 years of interest rates, which are currently lower than the 1930’s Depression Era.

Historical Interest Rates

Historical Interest Rates

Deutsche Bank is not merely Germany’s biggest bank but the political role that it plays in Germany is unique compared to other countries. Deutsche Bank’s importance to Germany is many times greater than that of an investment bank like Lehman Brothers was to the U.S. in 2008. Deutsche Bank is technically a private bank, however it is informally tied to the government and formally tied to most major German corporations. The bank’s fate will have an impact on the entire country.

And then there’s Italy, whose banking crisis is not just confined to its borders.

Italy’s non-performing loan issues are common knowledge. Who will be forced to deal with settling Italy’s impaired debt? That’s a political question and the answer depends, in large measure, on who holds Italian bank debt.

The U.S banks are not shielded from Europe’s banking problems. There is a substantial amount of uncertainty and risk.

The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis due to the European Unions’ regulations. The European Central Bank and the central banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them. The bail-in strategy is, in theory, a mechanism for ensuring fair competition and stability within the financial sector across the Eurozone.

The bail-in process can potentially apply to any liabilities of the institution that is not backed by assets or collateral. The first 100,000 euros ($111,000) in deposits are protected in the sense that they cannot be seized, while any money above that amount can be.

Germany insisted on the bail-in process.

The Bank for International Settlements stated that German banks are the second-most exposed to Italy, after France, with a total exposure of $92.7 billion. Is it any wonder that gold demand has increased?

Italy’s ongoing banking crisis is presenting yet another threat to the stability of the ECB.

Commerzbank’s financial statements revealed that its Italian sovereign debt exposure was 10.8 billion euros ($12.1 billion).

Deutsche Bank’s net credit risk exposure to Italy is 13.3 billion euros as of the end of December 2015. Its gross position in Italy is 35.4 billion euros. Deutsche Bank is sitting on $41.9 trillion worth of derivatives.

The Consequences Are Significant

Gold is the only safe haven left in the world. Indeed, the metal has been a form of currency for centuries. Whenever countries followed a strict gold standard and used it as their currency, their economies were stable. But governments have always surpassed their means with costly spending, causing them to abandon the gold standard to fund their inefficiencies. I think gold is beginning a multi-year bull market as it’s the only asset class that will be able to maintain its’ ‘store of value’ during this impending crisis. In fact ‘gold mania’ is about to take off as global central banks implement negative interest rates, which is an ideal environment for gold to surge higher.

Gold does have a historical store of value. central banks and institutions horde it as a reserve. And they do not want to sell it. On the contrary, many want to accumulate even more. Therefore, gold’s characteristic role in regard to sovereign reserves is still intact even amid the fascinating evolution of central banking and institutional finance.

BRUSSELS sindonews– Inflasi zona euro tercatat tetap lemah pada Agustus, untuk membuka peluang terkait kebijakan lanjutan Bank Sentral Eropa untuk merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi zona euro tidak berubah pada level 0,2% dibandingkan Juli, hal ini di bawah perkiraan analis sebelumnya yang memprediksi ada sedikit kenaikan.

Dilansir BBCnews, Kamis (1/9/2016) Bank Sentral Eropa (European Central Bank/ECB) telah mengumumkan sejumlah langkah-langkah stimulus, namun target inflasi masih tetap berada pada jalur target di bawah 2%. Sementara data terpisah menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran tetap berada pada level 10,1% di bulan Juli.

Sebelumnya analis telah meramalkan ada sedikit penurunan pada level pengangguran saat ini. Di sisi lain inflasi zona euro yang tidak berubah disebabkan harga makanan, layanan dan barang industri tidak mengalami kenaikan terlalu besar di Juli sedangkan penurunan harga di sektor energi tidak terlalu tajam.

Pada Maret tahun ini, ECB telah mengambil langkah dalam upaya mendongkrak ekonomi zona euro dengan pemotongan suku bunga utama dari 0,05% menjadi 0% dan tingkat deposito bank dari minus 0,3% menjadi minus 0,4%. ECB sudah melakukan pelonggaran kuantitatif dan saat ini membeli obligasi senilai 80 miliar euro.

Dijadwalkan pada pekan depan, dewan pengurus bank akan melakukan pertemuan ketika analis tidak yakin apakah akan mengumumkan langkah-langkah kebijkan baru. “Tampaknya akan ada tekanan apakah ECB akan kembali mengambil kebijakan pada 8 September atau mempertahankan sikap wait and see untuk melihat sejauh mana kinerja ekonomi zona euro,” ucap Kepala Ekonom Inggris dan Eropa IHS Global Insight Howard Archer

(akr)

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New York, Aug 2, 2016 (AFP)
Global stocks tumbled Tuesday as worries about unsteady European banks and an underwhelming Japanese stimulus package prompted selling.

Most bourses fell as analysts describing a revival of worries due also to lackluster US economic data and slumping oil prices.

Losses were especially steep in Europe, where anxiety was rising over bank stress tests that were seen as overly-lenient, said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.

The overriding fear concerns the difficulty banks face making money in a low interest rate era.

Milan stocks tanked 2.8 percent as shares in crisis-hit Italian bank Monte Paschi di Siena (BMPS) plunged 16 percent after investors were swept up by concerns about the plans to shore up the worst performing lender in Europe-wide stress tests.

Frankfurt and Paris both shed 1.8 percent and London lost 0.7 percent, hit also by weak post-Brexit construction survey data.

British bank Barclays sank 3.6 percent in London, while French peers BNP Paribas and Societe Generale lost 4.3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

Shares in other Italian banks were also down sharply, including Unicredit, which fell by 7.2 percent after plunging by 9.4 percent on Monday.

Adding to the woes was discontent with Japan’s efforts to ignite its economy.

Japan’s cabinet Tuesday approved a mammoth 28-trillion yen ($273 billion) package in its latest attempt to stimulate feeble growth, but the plan fell flat on global markets as it includes just 7.5 trillion yen in fresh spending.

The Nikkei lost 1.5 percent.

Analysts have critcized stimulus planned by the Bank of Japan.

“There’s already the sense that central banks don’t have the power to stimulate the economy the way they used to,” Low said. “There’s an awful lot to worry about again.”

US stocks were also hit by disappointing auto sales, worries about retailers and poor airline industry data.

Automobile shares tumbled as July auto sales showed signs the industry’s boom period may be slowing. Fiat Chrysler dropped 4.0 percent, Ford 4.3 percent and General Motors 4.4 percent.

Shares of Macy’s, Nordstrom and Kohl’s all fell six percent or more following a Bloomberg News report that cited a note by Cleveland Research that pointed to slow sales this summer.

Airlines were another weak sector as Delta Air Lines said a key benchmark of passenger revenue fell seven percent in July. Delta lost 7.8 percent, American Airlines 5.9 percent and United Continental 6.3 percent.

– Key figures around 2100 GMT –

New York – DOW: DOWN 0.5 percent at 18,313.77 (close)

New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.6 percent at 2,157.03 (close)

New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 0.9 percent at 5,137.73 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.7 percent at 6,645.40 points (close)

Frankfurt – DAX 30: DOWN 1.8 percent at 10,144.34 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 1.8 percent at 4,327.99 (close)

Milan – FTSE MIB: DOWN 2.8 percent at 16,098 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 2.0 percent at 2,906.98 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.5 percent at 16,391.45 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.6 percent at 2,971.28 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: closed

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1224 from $1.1160

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3354 from $1.3178

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 100.90 yen from 102.41 yen

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Paris, July 27, 2016 (AFP)
Air travel bookings to France have fallen by a fifth for August and September following the deadly jihadist attack in Nice, a specialist in traveller data said Wednesday.

Even before the July 14 attack, flight reservations to France were down by 16 percent for the two months compared to the same period in 2015 due to the Paris attacks in November, ForwardKeys said.

The Spanish-based company has access to databases of more than 200,000 online and physical travel agencies.

For Nice alone, air bookings from abroad have slumped 19 percent after the Bastille Day attack. They had already been projected to fall by 14 percent, ForwardKeys said in a statement.

It also studied the flow of international tourists in the immediate aftermath of the Nice attack, in which a truck driven by Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, a 31-year-old Tunisian, rammed into Bastille Day revellers, killing 84 and injuring more than 300.

“As an immediate reaction, international visitor arrivals in Nice dropped by 9.4 percent in the week after the attack, when compared with the same time last year,” it said.

“Across the country, post-attack arrivals were down 8.8 percent.”

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#ixzz4DnMCGNbt

Brexit in seven charts — the economic impact

The question of how Brexit will affect the UK economy is one of the crucial issues now that Britain has voted to leave the EU. The fall in sterling, the slide in stock markets and the freeze in investment are all indications that the short-term impact will be serious.

But the bigger question is how breaking up with Brussels will affect the economy longer term.

Millions of words on the topic — including economists’ majority view that leaving the bloc will slow growth and the Leave campaign’s counterarguments that Britain will prosper — could be replaced by seven charts.

These sum up the arguments over what breaking up with Brussels will really mean for jobs, growth and public finances.

The EU was good for Britain

The UK used to be the sick man of Europe. Its annual growth in prosperity improved from bottom of the league among the G7 leading economies before it joined the European Economic Community to top spot in the 43 years after 1973. This does not prove that becoming a member improved Britain’s international performance. It does, however, allow the Remain campaign to argue that membership did not prevent UK national renewal.

Alternative explanation
Economists from the Leave side would point out that the absolute growth rates were lower after 1973 than before and that the main reason for Britain’s improved performance was Margaret Thatcher’s reforms, not EU membership.

Assessment
Splitting correlation from causation is difficult. All countries’ growth slowed after the postwar surge petered out. But, given the dramatic improvement in Britain’s position, it is nearly impossible to argue that the EU stood in the way of Britain pulling up its socks. In the most detailed assessment to date, professor Nick Crafts of Warwick university, Britain’s leading economic historian, estimates that the EU directly raised UK prosperity by about 10 per cent, largely due to increased competition and better access to the single European market.

What trade deals will replace EU membership?

What will a new ministry of trade have to do after the country breaks off with the EU to replace current trading relationships? Sign a deal with the remaining 27 members of the EU, come to an arrangement with about 50 additional countries with which the EU has preferential deals, or all the remaining 161 members of the World Trade Organisation?

A bilateral deal with the bloc is likely to take years to negotiate, say experienced trade negotiators. Barack Obama, US president, has also cautioned that Britain would be “at the back of the queue” for a US-UK trade deal.

Alternative explanation
The Leave campaign said the UK does not need trade agreements to trade. It said that Germany and other countries running trade surpluses with the UK would eagerly seek a preferential deal and the UK could be much more nimble in negotiating deals with other countries.

Assessment
Leave was right that trade deals are not necessary for trade. But such agreements do set the rules for commerce and protect Britain and UK companies from disputes and arbitrary actions from other countries. Leaving the EU will require a mammoth negotiation process, since Britain cannot even guarantee to be able to trade securely under WTO rules, since it does not have its own schedule of tariffs, commitments on services and agricultural subsidies. Without this, Britain will be left vulnerable to legal action under WTO dispute settlement rules.

Can Britain cut migration significantly?

Britain’s net migration stood at 333,000 in 2015, the second-highest figure on record and more than three times David Cameron’s 2010 pledge to bring the figure down to the tens of thousands. Net immigration from EU countries, particularly central and eastern European member states, rose rapidly after their accession to the EU in 2004 and more recently when citizens of Bulgaria and Romania acquired the right to work and settle in the UK. Only by leaving the EU can the government reduce the numbers of EU migrants.

Alternative explanation
EU migrants tend to be young and are likely to be employed. They contribute more to the UK public finances than they take out and much more than UK-born citizens. And their numbers already appeared to be plateauing, now that the initial surge from Romania and Bulgaria has abated.

Assessment
Even if EU net migration was cut to zero, Britain would have far more migrants from non-EU countries than the prime minister’s tens of thousands pledge. As long as Britain’s economy does well, it will attract immigrants.

Do migrants reduce UK wages?

The chart shows the change in the share of EU immigrants for every local area in the UK (left to right) and the change in local wage levels (up and down). There is no correlation, indicating that areas with high levels of immigration do not have lower wage growth. There is no indication that immigration reduces wages.

A Bank of England study found a small effect on the lower paid, with a 10 percentage point rise in the share of low-skilled migrants reducing wages of the lower paid by 2 per cent. But the increase in EU migration share has been only about 2 percentage points between 2008 and 2015, suggesting the effect on low pay is about a cut of 0.4 per cent over seven years.

Alternative explanation
While the Leave campaign grossly exaggerated the very small measured effect of migration on low skill wages, there is a question whether normally high growth areas should be expected to have had larger increases in wages. This could explain why there is no positive correlation in the chart between areas of high immigration and higher wage rises.

Assessment
The available evidence suggests EU migration does not cut people’s pay, even for the low paid. But there is a possibility that it allows employers to increase employment in high demand areas without raising pay but allowing EU migration to be a buffer.

Were EU regulations a yoke around the neck of the UK economy?

Evidence that EU regulations stifled British creativity, innovation, competition and growth is thin on the ground. The OECD assesses that the UK has the second lowest level of product market regulation among its members, just below the Netherlands. There is no figure for the US in 2013.

Podcast

Fact-checking Brexit claims with Tim Harford

Tim Harford joins host Cardiff Garcia to discuss the potential economic effects of the UK leaving the EU. The referendum campaigns that preceded Brexit included a number of exaggerations and, in some cases, outright lies. But there are also nuanced and difficult questions that cannot be answered definitively, and deserve careful scrutiny. Music by Minden

The differences between EU member states in this measure and in assessments of labour market regulation suggests that, far from harmonising practices across member states, Brussels’ rules allow countries to maintain their own rules to have highly or lightly regulated economies.

Alternative explanation
Leave campaigners said that even these regulations are too many and should not be set for the whole single market. They think that British regulations would be better and even less onerous on business.

Assessment
Britain has a good record in international league tables and by far the most costly regulations are not shown here, such as rules governing planning and the use of land. There is no guarantee that repatriating regulatory activity from Brussels will not make the rules worse. Such repatriation will itself be a massive bureaucratic undertaking. It would be better to improve the regulatory environment where Britain has always been in control, but failed to take action.

What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

This figure — widely promoted by the Leave campaign — is not correct, as several Brexiters acknowledged after the polls had closed. When pushed, the Leave campaign accepts that Britain’s net contributions are much lower after the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher and payments to farmers, poorer regions and science. Britain does, however, make net contributions to the EU budget of £8.5bn in 2015, about £163m a week. This will be saved once the UK had left the EU and Britain would get to choose how it spent the money currently allocated for farmers and others by common EU rules.

Alternative explanation
A net contribution of £8.5bn is roughly £1 out of every £100 the British government spends every year, so any savings will be small. The Institute for Fiscal Studies and others have pointed out that if leaving the EU implies slower growth, the net saving would be wiped out through lower tax revenues and higher benefit spending — even if the growth reduction was merely 0.6 per cent. The IFS estimated that if the economic assessments of Brexit were accurate, leaving the EU would cost UK taxpayers between £20bn and £40bn a year.

Assessment
There is no doubt that the effect of EU membership on national income was more important for the UK public finances than the annual membership fee. This is the dominant issue and a small hit would leave Britain’s public sector worse off.

Put it all together economists. What do you get?

Brexit hurts. The main groups of economists who have published studies in the campaign use different models and different data but speak with more unanimity on this subject than on any other. Erecting trade barriers with the EU would hit prosperity, which is not easily replaced by greater free trade elsewhere. Leaving the bloc will afford the country little additional regulatory freedom and there could be long-term consequences from the short-term upheaval of Brexit. Economists overwhelmingly think leaving the EU is bad for the UK economy.

Alternative explanation
One group — economists for Brexit — believes Britain’s economy will be stronger if it adopts unilateral free trade, dropping all barriers on imports and letting other countries decide whether to maintain tariffs on British exports. This diverts all trade away from the EU, lowers prices and produces gains

Assessment
The economists for Brexit are out on a limb, both because of their desire for unilateral tariff reduction and due to their assessment of the benefits. Many other economists say the model the group uses is far removed from the real world and is not related to real current data on trade patterns.

Rarely has there been such a consensus among economists, as there is on the damage that Brexit will wreak on the British economy. The warning may turn out to be wrong — but it is difficult to ignore.

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The fallout from the Brexit vote reverberated through the markets on Tuesday as two more City property funds barred investors from withdrawing their cash and the Bank of England warned that risks to the financial system had begun to “crystallise”.

City watchers warned that further property funds would be forced to bar withdrawals as investors race for the door amid fears of a plunge in the values of office blocks and shopping centres in post Brexit Britain.

The suspensions came on another day of drama on the financial markets, 11 days after the vote to leave the EU wrong-footed investors and sparked political turmoil. Developments included:

The pound plunging to a new 31-year low against the dollar, falling 2% to $1.30 at one point.

A closely watched survey of the services sector coming in worse than expected, indicating a sharp slowdown in the wider economy.

The Bank of England easing regulations on banks to allow them to release up to £150bn worth of loans to households and businesses.

Chancellor George Osborne held a summit with the heads of the major high street banks, who pledged to avoid a new credit crisis by making loans available.

The property funds barring withdrawals included M&G Investments, which runs a £4.4bn property fund, and Aviva Investments, whose fund has assets worth £1.8bn.

The moves came one day after Standard Life banned its clients from doing the same on its £2.9bn property fund, with the firms saying they had acted to stop a rush of withdrawals following “extraordinary market circumstances”.

Investors have been buying into commercial property funds to try to benefit from the 40% rise in commercial property prices since the 2009 crisis. But concerns that the market may have peaked before the referendum – plus fears on the impact of the Brexit vote on the UK economy – has triggered nervy investors to ask for their cash back.

Large-scale outflows cause problems for commercial property funds because they are based on assets that are difficult to sell quickly when investors want their money back. Restrictions on withdrawals are then put in place to give fund managers time to sell their properties. Otherwise, they would be forced to sell assets at fire-sale prices to fund the redemption requests. That would drive down the fund’s value, encouraging more investors to cash out, creating a vicious circle.

The Bank of England said in its half-yearly assessment of risks to the financial system published on Tuesday said that some of the risks to the financial system it had warned about in the run-up to the referendum had “begun to crystallise”, including the possible downturn in the commercial real estate market.

Around £35bn – or 7% of the total investment in UK commercial property – is invested in commercial property funds, which offer private investors a chance to gain exposure to huge office block developments and shopping centres. M&G’s fund has invested in properties including New Square Park, a 250-acre office park near Heathrow airport, and the eight-storey 3 Hardman Square office block in Manchester; while Aviva holds sites including 20 Soho Square development in central London and the Guildhall shopping centre in Exeter.

Andrew Bailey, the newly installed chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, the City watchdog, said the current situation “points to issues that we need to look at in the design of these things” and insisted there was no cause for panic.

Bailey’s comments came as City commentators queued up to warn of further woe for the commercial property sector – and predict that other funds would be compelled to temporarily prevent withdrawals.

Simon French, chief economist at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said: “Commercial real estate looked very vulnerable as we entered the referendum with most finance directors thinking the stuff was overpriced before Brexit. Add that to the fact that material changes to immigration and market access will affect prime office space occupants and a financial sector most correlated to GDP slowdown, then this looks like a perfect storm.”

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at financial firm Hargreaves Lansdown, added that banning investors from redemptions could happen to any of the funds. “We have now had two in very short succession. It suggests that we are on the cusp of others.”

Khalaf added that around 10% of a fund’s asset value tends to be held in cash and that funds selling off their assets would inevitably put pressure on commercial property prices across the UK.

However, Bailey called for calm and said that the suspension of the funds should not been seen as a panic measure. “It’s designed into these structures to deal precisely with that situation where there’s been some shock to the market, if you like, and there’s a presumption of a valuation adjustment which is quite hard to capture in illiquid assets at high frequency,” he said. “And the purpose of the suspension is to create a pause, if you like, to allow that process then to happen. And that’s sensible, it’s absolutely sensible.”

Other analysts played down fears of a rerun of the 2009 crisis when commercial property prices plunged and banks were left nursing heavy losses on their loans.

Eduardo Gorab, a property economist at Capital Economics, said: “Clearly, the uncertainty kicked up by the referendum’s result has had an adverse impact on sentiment, which has been driving outflows over the last week or two.

“However, if we are right in thinking that occupier and investment markets are well placed to weather the uncertainty, we suspect that fears of a repeat of 2009 are overdone.”

The Bank of England has already subjected banks to tests to ensure they can sustain a 30% fall in commercial property prices and will impose tests on them again this year.

However, the Bank said that there could be wider fallout from declines in commercial property prices. This is because 75% of small business loans are secured against property while banks also use such loans to count towards their capital buffers.

In its biannual assessment of financial risks, the Bank said it was “focused on the potential for adjustments in the commercial real estate market to be amplified and affect economic activity by reducing the ability of companies that use commercial real estate as collateral to access finance. Any adjustment could potentially be amplified by the behaviour of leveraged investors and investors in open-ended funds.”

Around 45% of commercial property is funded by foreign investment although there has been a 50% reduction in such investment in the first quarter of the year, the Bank of England said.

Although there is no technical link between commercial property prices and residential property, house market experts have warned that Britain’s decision to leave the EU will affect demand and valuations for residential property in the coming months. Foxtons, the London-focused estate agent, issued a profit warning in the wake of the EU poll as it predicted that the capital’s property market will remain depressed for the rest of the year.

gifi

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham Jepang bergerak positif pada awal perdagangan hari ini, Jumat (1/7/2016), setelah bank sentral di Eropa mengisyaratkan kebijakan moneter yang lebih longgar. Hal ini mengurangi ketidakpastian atas dampak dari keputusan Inggris meninggalkan Uni Eropa (Brexit).

Indeks Topix naik 0,59% atau 7,31 poin ke level 1.253,13, setelah dibuka menguat 0,73% atau 9,05 poin di posisi 1.254,87.

Pada saat yang sama, indeks Nikkei 225 juga menguat 0,72% atau 112,44 poin ke level 15.668,36 setelah dibuka dengan penguatan 0,78% atau 122,10 poin di level 15.698,02.

Sementara itu, nilai tukar mata uang yen Jepang terpantau menguat 0,29% atau 0,30 poin ke posisi 102,90 yen per dolar AS pada pukul 08.15 WIB setelah dibuka dengan pergerakan stagnan di posisi 103,20.

Seperti dilansir Bloomberg hari ini, bank sentral Eropa (European Central Bank/ECB) mempertimbangkan melonggarkan aturan untuk pembelian obligasi dalam program stimulusnya demi memastikan kredit yang cukup untuk dibeli setekah keputusan Brexit.

Gubernur Bank of England Mark Carney juga menyatakan BOE mungkin perlu melonggarkan kebijakannya dalam beberapa bulan ke depan untuk mengatasi dampak tersebut.

“Mood untuk lebih banyak pelonggaran cenderung menyebar ke seluruh dunia, dan harga saham naik,” kata Juichi Wako, strategi senior Nomura Securities Co. “Bukan berarti bahwa krisis itu telah berganti menjadi anugerah, namun rasa tinggi urgensi di antara pihak otoritas akan memungkinkan berlajutnya respon kebijakan yang baik untuk pasar.”

Sebanyak 152 saham menguat, 62 saham melemah, dan 11 saham stagnan dari 225 saham pada indeks Nikkei.

Saham Terumo Corp. melesat 2,88%, disusul oleh Tokyo Electron Ltd. yang menanjak 2,20%, Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. yang naik 0,59%, dan FANUC Corp. yang menguat 0,64%.

 

Pergerakan Indeks Nikkei 225: 

Tanggal Level Perubahan
1 Juli 2016

(Pk. 08.00 WIB)

15.688,36 +0,72%
30/6/2016 15.575,92 +0,06%
29/6/2016 15.566,83 +1,59%
28/6/2016 15.323,14 +0,09%
27/6/2016 15.309,21 +2,39%

Sumber: Bloomberg

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the independent: Germany’s political leaders are furious that nobody in the UK wants to take the responsibility of starting divorce proceedings with the EU.

David Cameron, who will continue in office until 2 September – but as a temporary Prime Minister keeping the seat warm for his successor – has refused to get involved in the complex Brexit negotiations.

Boris Johnson – seen by many as Mr Cameron’s most likely successor – has said that he will not want to start the hard bargaining straight away, if elected. He wants a breathing space in which the UK representatives could sound out their EU counterparts to see where there is room for negotiating over the difficult issues around trade and immigration.

Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty, which sets out the procedure for a Brexit, lays down that it is up to the country that is proposing to leave to set the procedure in motion. That means that the UK cannot be forced into negotiations until the prime minister is ready.

But once the process begins, both sides will be working to a two year deadline, and on the British side there are fears that being rushed may prevent them getting the best possible deal for the UK. This is likely to make whoever is Prime Minister in September reluctant to start a process from which there will no going back.

Other EU leaders want the process completed quickly because they worry about the damage Brexit will do the whole European project. They fear that allowing it to drag on might encourage movements in other EU states in favour of pulling out. There is also simmering anger at the British decision which makes EU opinion leaders want to tell Britain to get lost.

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is personally sympathetic to the British plight, has bowed to domestic pressure and ruled out any negotiations on future deals until Article 50 has been invoked by the UK.

Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, told journalists that Germany will ‘respect’ the British need for time before formal talks begin, but he  added: “One thing is clear – before Great Britain has sent this notification, there will be no informal preliminary talks about the exit modalities.”

The French finance minister, Michel Sapin, said the French government agrees with the Germans that the sooner the UK leaves, the better. “France, like Germany, thinks that Britain voted for Brexit, and Brexit should be put in place starting now.”

One well-placed German source said: “The political parties, the political leaders, the commentators and a big, big majority of the people want this process to start yesterday.

“They are absolutely determined – ‘you decided to go, now get out’. They are absolutely pissed about Cameron. They see him as ego centric and ego manic. He tried to a play a poker game, and lost. The issue wasn’t about the EU, it was to save his butt. It was mismanaged and not very clever.

“They are putting pressure on Angela Merkel, who is a little more understanding of the British position, but she can’t afford to be the only supporter of Mr Cameron.”

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One Comment
  1. Bagian mendukung Optimis pemerintah dalam bidang Ekonomi, saya pun giat bekerja dan punya semangat yang tinggi.

    Like

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