devalua$1 Yuan: lapang dada (31 Mei 2016)

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SHANGHAI – People’s Bank of China (PBoC) atau bank sentral Tiongkok, pada Senin (30/5), menetapkan nilai tukar yuan pada level terendah dalam lebih lima tahun terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Pelemahan ini dilihat sebagai pola menjelang kenaikan suku bunga acuan di AS.

Data dari China Foreign Exchange Trade System menunjukkan, PBoC menetapkan renminbi pada level 6,5784 per US$ 1,0 atau turun 0,45% dari level fix pada Jumat pecan lalu. Level baru itu merupakan level terendah sejak Februari 2011.

Otoritas Tiongkok membolehkan nilai tukar yuan naik atau turun 2% di kedua rentang dari level fix harian. Tujuannya untuk mengontrol pergerakan nilai tukar tersebut.

“Yuan secara bertahap akan terdepresiasi. Pendorong utama penurunan ini adalah antisipasi penguatan dolar AS karena ekspektasi The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga acuan,” ujar Song Yu, ekonom Tiongkok untuk Goldman Sachs-Gao Hua Securities kepada Bloomberg News.

Gubernur The Federal Reserve (The Fed) atau bank sentral AS Janet Yellen pada Jumat (27/5) mengindikasikan fed funds rate (FFR) bisa segera dinaikkan. Berbicara di Harvard University, ia mengatakan suku bunga acuan AS kemungkinan akan disesuaikan dalam beberapa bulan ke depan, jika data-data ekonomi terus menguat.

Tiongkok mengguncang pasar finansial dunia saat secara mengejutkan mendevaluasi yuan pada Agustus tahun lalu. Saat itu, yuan yang normalnya stabil diturunkan hampir 5% hanya dalam satu pekan. Menurut SWIFT atau penyedia jasa messaging finansial global, ada tanda-tanda orang kurang berminat memegang mata uang Tiongkok. Karena pada April 2016, yuan turun ke posisi enam dari sebelumnya lima sebagai mata uang pembayaran global.

Bank sentral Tiongkok pada Jumat pekan lalu membantah laporan bahwa pihaknya tidak lagi membiarkan yuan ke level yang lebih berorientasi pasar. PBoC juga menepis laporan bahwa otoritas finansial menekan AS untuk membuka kapan waktu potensial untuk menaikkan FFR.

“People’s Bank of China selalu mematuhi reformasi berorientasi pasar. Yuan akan tetap dalam level stabil,” kata PBoC. (afp/sn)

http://id.beritasatu.com/international/yuan-fix-di-level-terendah-dalam-5-tahun/144557
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

monetarySMALL

kontan BEIJING. Bank sentral China kembali memperlemah nilai tukar harian yuan pada hari ini. Tidak tanggung-tanggung, pelemahan yuan ini merupakan yang terbesar sejak Januari lalu. Alhasil, nilai tukar yuan di pasar offshore melemah tajam.

Sekadar informasi, hari ini, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) memangkas nilai tukar yuan sebesar 0,26% menjadi 6,5079 per dollar AS.

Pada pukul 09.25 waktu Hong Kong, posisi yuan di Hong Kong semakin melemah sebesar 0,14% menjadi 6,5033. Di sisi lain, dollar AS juga menguat. Kemarin, dollar perkasa 0,4%. Ini merupakan penguatan terbesar sejak 26 Februari lalu.

Menurut Gubernur PBOC hou xiaochuan pada Sabtu (12/3) lalu, saat ini mata uang China sudah kembali ke posisi normal, rasional, dan memiliki tren yang didorong oleh faktor fundamental. “China tidak membutuhkan kebijakan nilai tukar mata uang untuk mendongkrak perdagangan,” imbuhnya.

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Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, menguat 72 basis poin menjadi 6,5041 terhadap dolar AS pada Selasa (08/03/2016). Demikian menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China.

Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar uang antar bank setiap hari kerja.

http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2279494/yuan-china-menguat-72-poin-terhadap-dolar-as
Sumber : INILAH.COM

rose KECIL

time.com: The ratings agency cites “Uncertainty about the authorities’ capacity to implement reforms”

The credit ratings agency Moody’s has declared that the outlook for China’s credit rating is “negative” amid growing concerns about the Chinese government’s ability to manage a slowdown of growth.

In a note Wednesday, Moody’s Investors Service said it would keep its ratings of both long-term and short-term Chinese government debt at Aa3, meaning a very low credit risk. But the outlook for the ratings had moved from “stable” to “negative” Moody’s said, blaming rising government debt and liabilities.

It said the revision was also down to “Uncertainty about the authorities’ capacity to implement reforms — given the scale of reform challenges — to address imbalances in the economy.”

China’s economy is now growing at its lowest rate for 25 years as the country’s manufacturing sector and demand for commodities slow. The government insists that it is undergoing a managed transition to a services-led economy, but the Moody’s announcement will increase the pressure on China’s leaders to push forward with reforms at the annual National People’s Congress, which begins on Saturday in Beijing.

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Tokyo, March 1, 2016 (AFP)
Asian markets were up Tuesday as oil prices rose and fresh stimulus from the Chinese central bank lifted hopes for the world’s number two economy.

Indian stocks soared more than three percent after the government on Monday unveiled an annual budget that promised billions of dollars to help struggling farmers and boost the rural economy.

But China was the key driver that powered markets across the region Tuesday as investors reacted to the central bank decision to cut the proportion of funds that banks must set aside as reserves — Beijing’s latest attempt to tackle slowing growth in the powerhouse economy.

Policymakers cut the “reserve requirement ratio” (RRR) for financial institutions by 0.50 percentage points, freeing up more funds for them to lend.

The announcement boosted the mood on trading floors, with Hong Kong climbing 1.55 percent by the end of trade and Shanghai jumping 1.68 percent. Sydney finished 0.85 percent higher.

Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index had lingered in negative territory for most of the session as traders fretted about slowing global growth.

But as worries about China receded to the background, the Japanese yen — seen as a safe haven in times of turmoil — eased against the dollar, which is a plus for Japanese shares. At the closing bell, Tokyo was up 0.37 percent.

China’s central bank move came after a G20 finance ministers’ weekend meeting in Shanghai, which stressed the use of all available policy tools to boost growth and settle wild volatility on global equity markets.

“The RRR (reserve requirement ratio) announcement offered something for everyone,” Sean Callow, a foreign-exchange strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp, told Bloomberg News.

“You could welcome the easing as supportive of growth and indicative of less pressure from capital outflows, or you could see it as a reflection of even greater weakness than expected,” Callow added.

– Factory slowdown –

However, weak Chinese manufacturing figures on Tuesday offered the latest grim sign of slowing growth in China’s economy.

February manufacturing activity shrank at its fastest rate in four years.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks activity in factories and workshops, fell to 49.0 last month, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

That marked the seventh consecutive monthly contraction in the official index, which Bloomberg News said was the longest on record.

“Given the state that the Chinese economy is in, there’s probably more that they can do to cushion the economy on the downside,” said Wilfred Sit, Baring Asset Management’s chief investment officer in Hong Kong.

“They’re going to have to do more.”

The focus on China would now shift to the National People’s Congress, the annual meeting of its rubber-stamp parliament, beginning on Saturday, traders said.

Oil prices rose marginally after a rally in US trading stoked by major crude consumer China’s moves to tackle its slowing economy and top producer Saudi Arabia welcoming cooperative action to stabilise the market.

Riyadh suggested openness in reaching a coordinated solution to market volatility, as a global supply glut weighs on prices.

US benchmark crude for April gained eight cents to $33.83 a barrel on Tuesday while Brent was up one cent at $36.58 a barrel.

In currency markets, the dollar rose to 112.86 yen from 112.72 yen in New York late Monday.

– Key figures around 0930 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.37 percent at 16,085.51 points (close)

Shanghai – composite: UP 1.68 percent at 2,733.17 points (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: UP 1.55 percent at 19,407.46 points (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0867 from $1.0876 on Monday

Dollar/yen: UP at 113.20 yen from 112.72 yen on Monday

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.7 percent at 16,516.50 points (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,099.58 points (early trade)

— Bloomberg News contributed to this report —

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chinadaily: Stocks plunged the most in a month on Thursday in run-up to G20 Summit.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumped 6.4 percent to 2,741.25 as of closing,extending its declines this year to 22.5 percent, while the Shenzhen Component Indextumbled 7.3 percent to 9,551.08.

Nearly 1,400 stocks at the two markets dived by the daily limit of 10 percent, traversingsectors ranging from finance to shipping and electronics.

Volatility is returning to A-share markets, said analysts, after the Shanghai gauge recovered10 percent from its January low and posted 3.5 percent gains last week.

The plunge comes as China’s overnight repurchase rate rose 16 basis points to 2.12 percent,signaling tighter liquidity, and the central bank cut its daily reference rate for a third day in arow to 6.5318 renminbi to the dollar.

Later this week, the world attention will focus on the country, as the 2016 G20 Summit isschedule to be held in Shanghai on Friday and Saturday.

The G20 central bankers and finance ministers will concentrate on topics including globalgrowth, infrastructure investment, the reform of global financial governance, restructuring ofsovereign debt, global tax cooperation and the financing of environmental programs,according to Xinhua.

China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei earlier the week dismissed rumors of a possiblediscussion on the renminbi exchange rate, saying “there isn’t such an item on the agenda”.

The CSI 300 Index slid 6.1 percent to 2,918.75 on Thursday.

rose KECIL

JAKARTA kontan. Posisi yuan merosot lagi. Ini setelah People’s Bank of China (PBOC) memangkas fixing rate yuan di perdagangan hari ini (24/2).

Seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, valuasi yuan sudah menukik memasuki hari keempat. Hal ini terjadi setelah People’s Bank of China memotong suku bunga acuannya sebanyak 0,04% di level 6,5302 atau terendah dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Padahal pada Selasa (23/2) telah dipangkas sebesar 0,17%.

Tidak hanya itu, pada Selasa (23/2) capital outflow pun terjadi secara signifikan dan beruntun di pasar keuangan China. Tercatat outflow sudah berlangsung selama tujuh bulan beruntun hingga Januari 2016 lalu. Berdasarkan laporan bank-bank di China, outflow tercatat sebesar 454,8 miliar yuan atau setara US$ 70 miliar selama Januari 2016.

Pukul 16.44 waktu Shanghai, posisi yuan turun 0,1% ke level 6,5328 dibanding hari sebelumnya. Dalam empat hari terakhir menurut China Foreign Exchange Trade, yuan telah kehilangan tenaga sebanyak 0,24%.

“Masih ada tekanan depresiasi lanjutan dalam jangka panjang melihat dari fundamental ekonomi China dan tingginya arus modal yang keluar,” kata Tommy Xie, Singapore based economist di Oversea Chinese Banking Corp.

Ke depannya, pasar menanti pertemuan para petinggi dan pembuat kebijakan ekonomi dunia di Shanghai pada 26 – 27 Februari 2016 mendatang. Pertemuan itu nantinya akan membahas gejolak dan perkembangan ekonomi di China serta menjaga pergerakan sistem keuangan global.

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bloomberg: A sharp, one-off devaluation of the yuan is among options China’s central bank might consider to stem capital outflows and shift market psychology to appreciation from depreciation, according to Barclays Plc.

The risk of such a move, which Barclays says would need to be in the region of 25 percent to alter perceptions, is rising as China’s foreign-exchange reserves plunge, analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Jian Chang wrote in a report. Based on the current pace of decline in those holdings, there’s a six- to 12-month window before they drop to uncomfortable levels and measures such as capital controls or monetary tightening may also have to be looked at to curb the exodus of money, they said.

All those options carry elements of danger. Another rapid yuan depreciation could spook investors just as concern about the state of the global economy is growing and other central banks would likely follow, countering the beneficial impact on Chinese exports, the analysts said. Strict capital controls won’t work in an export-driven economy, while a move to policy tightening could slow growth and cause credit defaults, they said.

“A devaluation of this magnitude seems impossible to ‘sell’ to the rest of the world,” according to the analysts at Barclays, the London-based bank ranked the world’s third-biggest currency trader by Euromoney. “The People’s Bank of China will probably have to take more aggressive measures to stem outflows,” said head of macro research Rajadhyaksha in New York and Hong Kong-based chief China economist Chang.

‘Significant Risks’

The yuan has dropped 2 percent since China won reserve-currency status at the International Monetary Fund at the end of November to 6.5279 a dollar as of 3:19 p.m. in Shanghai, according to China Foreign Exchange System prices. A surprise devaluation last August created financial turmoil in world markets and sparked speculation of a global currency war.

Chinese policy makers are trying to counter record outflows and prop up the yuan, while opening up the capital account and keeping borrowing costs low to revive growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. The balancing act challenges Nobel-winning economist Robert Mundell’s “impossible trinity” principle, which stipulates a country can’t maintain independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free capital borders all at the same time.

The People’s Bank of China reported a $99.47 billion drop in its foreign-exchange reserves to $3.2 trillion for last month, less than December’s record $107.9 billion decline. A safe level would be $2-$2.75 trillion, according to Barclays’s estimate using IMF standards. Societe Generale SA also said this month China will have to step up capital controls to stem the outflows.

“The only reason for a one-off devaluation is to use it as a way to stem capital flight — in which case, it has to be a large move,” the report from Barclays said. “No matter what it decides, the outcome carries significant risks for global financial markets.”

gifi

Beijing, Feb 22, 2016 (AFP)
China’s overcapacity in heavy industries is wreaking “far-reaching” damage on the global economy, with steel production “completely untethered” from market demand, the European Union Chamber of Commerce of China said Monday.

The Asian giant’s steel industry makes more than the next four largest producers combined — Japan, India, the US, and Russia — the report said, warning that more than 60 percent of China’s aluminium industry has negative cash flow.

In just two years, its cement production equalled the amount produced in the United States during the entire 20th Century.

Brussels has launched new anti-dumping probes into Chinese steel imports, as producers in both Europe and Asia struggle with global prices that have plummeted in the face of oversupply.

“Overcapacity has been a blight on China’s industrial landscape for many years now, affecting dozens of industries and wreaking far-reaching damage on the global economy in general, and China’s economic growth in particular,” the chamber’s report said.

The issue has led to trade tensions between the world’s second-largest economy and developed countries that accuse it of dumping in their markets.

China accounts for half of global steel production but internal demand has slowed sharply along with economic growth, forcing it to look overseas. Its steel exports soared 20 percent in 2015, according to Chinese Customs data.

The EU launched probes this month into imports of Chinese steel, with trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem warning: “We cannot allow unfair competition from artificially cheap imports to threaten our industry.”

This month, Luxembourg-based world leader in steelmaking ArcelorMittal blamed China for a colossal $8 billion loss in 2015, at a time when thousands of jobs are being cut across the industry.

But many Chinese steel firms are also losing money, and Beijing has announced plans to cut production by as much as 150 million tonnes over the next five years.

Despite authorities’ vows to tackle excess production, the EU chamber report said Beijing’s prioritisation of industrial policies over consumption meant “the Chinese government’s current role in the economy is part of the problem”.

To achieve change, it said the government needed “a willingness to change itself”.

bfc/slb/cah

<org idsrc=”isin” value=”LU0323134006″>ARCELORMITTAL</org>

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New York, Feb 16, 2016 (AFP)
China’s yuan eased slightly against the dollar on Tuesday, a day after its biggest surge in more than a decade on the Chinese central bank’s move to underpin the currency.

Against the greenback, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, was trading at 6.5169 per dollar around 2200 GMT, up from 6.4962 on Monday.

On Monday, the unit surged more than one percent against the dollar after the head of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, said there was no reason the currency should fall further after a six month slide.

The Chinese economy grew 6.9 percent in 2015 — the slowest rate since 1990 — and capital has been flowing out of the country due to worries over flagging growth and a sharper fall in the currency.

In an interview with Caixin magazine published over the weekend, PBoC head Zhou blamed foreign speculators for volatility in the yuan and said there was “no foundation for continued depreciation.”

Analysts expect further PBoC monetary loosening after six interest rate cuts in the 12 months to November and several cuts in the amount of funds banks keep in reserve.

“Looking ahead, we expect credit growth to remain strong given that the PBoC has kept monetary conditions loose,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.

Forex traders awaited publication Wednesday of the Federal Reserve’s minutes of the Federal Market Open Committee policy meeting in January.

In December the US central bank projected four quarter-point interest rate increases this year, after December’s first hike in more than nine years.

But since then Fed officials have clearly taken note of weaker growth conditions and markets are now pricing in no increase until 2017, and perhaps a cut at the March meeting.

“We expect the FOMC minutes to remind investors that a rate hike next month is extremely unlikely, which could be just the excuse that FX traders need to sell the dollar again,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.

2200 GMT Tuesday Monday
<pre> EUR/USD 1.1143 1.1155
EUR/JPY 127.07 127.84
EUR/CHF 1.1017 1.1011
EUR/GBP 0.7796 0.7728
USD/JPY 114.03 114.60
USD/CHF 0.9887 0.9871
GBP/USD 1.4293 1.4435
</pre>

doraemon

BEIJING: China will fine tune monetary policy and keep the yuan basically stable while guarding against systemic financial risks, the country’s central bank said on Saturday (Feb 6) in its fourth-quarter monetary policy report.

China will also maintain an appropriate level of liquidity and achieve reasonable growth of money and credit, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said in the report.

The report comes after China reported economic growth of 6.9 percent for 2015, its weakest in 25 years, while depreciation pressure on the yuan adds to the case for the central bank to take more economic stimulus measures over the near-term.

In the report, the bank said it will “fine tune policy in a timely manner” and “flexibly use various policy tools … to help maintain appropriate liquidity and reasonable growth in credit and social financing.”

It also said it will seek to explore mechanisms to enhance management of interest rates, while increasing the flexibility in both directions of the yuan exchange rate.

It will improve the yuan regime and “let the market play a bigger role in setting the exchange rate, increasing two-way flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate, keeping the yuan basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.”

The PBOC said it will expand channels for yuan inflows and outflows and at the same time improve the prudential management of cross-border capital flows.

Liquidity often tightens ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holidays, which begin on Monday. In the past month, the bank has repeatedly injected money into the banking system via short- and medium-term lending tools and increased the frequency of its open market operations.

The PBOC also said in the report that it will improve management of risks created by local government debt.

A slew of economic indicators has sent mixed signals to markets at the start of 2016 over the health of China’s economy.

Activity in the services sector expanded at its fastest pace in six months in January, a private survey showed on Feb. 3, while manufacturing activity fell to the lowest since August 2012.

The central bank also said it aimed to “create a neutral and appropriate monetary and financial environment” for structural reform.

(Reporting by Matthew Miller, Kevin Yao and Xiaochong Zhang; Additional reporting by Beijing Monitoring; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

kontan: China tengah berjuang  keras menopang mata uang yuan di tengah derasnya arus keluar dana dari negara tersebut.

Data cadangan devisa selama akhir pekan ini bisa menjadi gambaran betapa berat tantangan yang kini dihadapi China.

Para analis umumnya memperkirakan, cadangan devisa turun US$ 100 miliar menyusul penurunan sebesar US$ 107,9 miliar di Desember 2015 lalu.

Di sepanjang 2015, cadangan devisa China  turun US$ 512,66 miliar menjadi US$ 3,33 triliun. Cadangan devisa negeri tembok Besar ini tergerus untuk  membiayai intervensi nilai tukar yuan.

Menurut Institute of International Finance, di sepanjang tahun lalu dana yang keluar (capital flight)  dari China mencapai US$ 700 miliar.

Perusahaan lokal di China buru-buru menarik dana untuk membayar utang luar negeri, seiring depresiasi yuan.

Sementara investor global semakin khawatir melihat melemahnya ekonomi China dan langkah intervensi otoritas di negara tersebut di pasar keuangan.

Pasar global akan terus mencermati data cadangan devisa China, meskipun pekan depan bursa di China tutup untuk merayakan Tahun Baru Imlek.

“Pasar global sendiri kan tidak tutup. Saya rasa akan ada  efek domino jika kita melihat cadangan devisa menyusut sangat signifikan,” ujar Steve Brice, Chief Investment Strategist Standard Chartered Wealth Management kepada  CNBC’s Street Signs.

“Jika tren percepatan penyusutan devisa seperti Desember lalu berlanjut di Januari, maka orang akan kian menekan otoritas China agar lebih terbuka dalam komunikasi mereka,” ujar Brice.

Januari 2016, secara mengejutkan, bank sentral the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) melemahkan mata uangnya secara tajam.

Hal inilah salah satu faktor yang mendorong aksi jual di pasar China, dan memicu gejolak di bursa global seiring meruyaknya kekhawatiran pasar bahwa yuan akan anjlok lebih dalam.

Kondisi tersebut mendorong otoritas China melakukan intervensi untuk menahan pelemahan yuan.

Namun untuk menopang yuan, China tentu harus menjual dollar AS. Inilah yang membuat pasar khawatir cadangan devisa China, yang merupakan cadangan devisa terbesar di dunia, akan terkuras.

Menggunakan metodologi  IMF, Khoon Goh, Senior Foreign-Exchange StrategistANZ, memperkirakan China membutuhkan minimal US$ 2,7 triliun dari cadangan devisanya untuk mempertahankan rezim nilai tukar tetap (fixed exchange-rate) tanpa menerapkan kebijakan kontrol  devisa (capital control).

Itu artinya, dengan tingkat pengurangan devisa yang terjadi belakangan ini, ujar Goh, cadangan devisa China hanya cukup untuk intervensi selama setengah tahun lagi.

bloomberg: China is probably going to surprise markets by strengthening the yuan’s daily fixings over the next few weeks, driving a revival in risk appetite that will buoy currencies from Australia to Malaysia, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of exchange-rate strategy.

The nation is in a “Catch-22” situation whereby policy makers keen to stimulate the economy are finding that weakening the yuan’s reference rate tightens financial conditions by worsening an equities rout and capital outflows, Robin Brookssaid at a conference in Sydney and subsequent interview. Depreciation also triggers bigger declines in regional currencies, eroding the competitiveness of Chinese exports, he said. The People’s Bank of China raised the yuan’s fixing to a four-week high of 6.5419 a dollar on Thursday.

“Given that the market is so bearish on China, I don’t think you need to go back to 6.30 or anything like that, I think if you go to the low 6.50s that already would be a huge surprise for market participants,” Brooks said. “That will massively wrong-foot the market and actually set off a meaningful risk rally.”

yuan v market 1yr 2015_050216

An August devaluation followed by an eight-day stretch of weaker yuan fixings that ran through Jan. 7 roiled global financial markets and fueled concern China was favoring depreciation to help revive the slowest economic growth in a quarter century. The PBOC has at the same time been burning through its currency reserves to support the yuan amid record capital outflows. Already this year, global equities have lost 7.3 percent, led by a 22 percent rout in Chinese stocks.

Spillover Effects

In smaller economies, currency devaluations can restore competitiveness to exporters and stimulate activity, Brooks said.

“In China things are turning out to be much more complicated and, of course, they are learning about all the spillover effects on the rest of the world, which have bad feedback effects,” he said. “The discussion in policy circles in China, I can imagine, is maybe we have to step back from the currency for a while.”

The PBOC boosted its yuan reference rate by 0.16 percent on Thursday, trimming this year’s loss to 0.74 percent. Brooks said he expects the rate to be strengthened to about 6.50 per dollar in coming weeks, a move of around 0.6 percent, and predicts a year-end level of 6.60.

Stronger yuan fixings will probably drive a reversal of the currency trends that dominated at the start of the year, with concern about China’s impact on global growth having driven a 2.1 percent rally in the euro and a 1.9 percent advance in the yen. Worst hit among the Group of 10 currencies so far have been the New Zealand and Australian dollars, while South Korea’s won was Asia’s biggest loser.

“You’ll see the risk premia currently in the market that’s buoying the euro and the yen taken out,” Brooks said. The Australian dollar can probably rally 2-3 percent while currencies like the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah will also strengthen, he said.

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