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April 14, 2016

sejarah tingkat pertumbuhan GDP Kanada  (2001-2015), simak kaitan dengan kondisi ekonomi global (2008-2009: krisis finansial global; 2015: krisis harga minyak n perlambatan ekonomi China)

canada GDP 2001_2015 on global impacts

 

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SINGAPORE–Singapore’s gross domestic product was expectedly flat in the first quarter as the economy held steady with different sectors producing uneven results.

There was no change in the GDP for the three months to the end of March on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis compared with the previous quarter, according to advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Thursday. This compared with a 6.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year and matched the median forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The island nation’s economy is estimated to have expanded 1.8% on year in the first quarter, compared with a median 1.7% increase tipped by the economists. GDP had risen 1.8% on year in the fourth quarter.

Services output grew 1.9% on year in the three-month period, while the construction sector expanded 6.2%, the data showed. Manufacturing output, however, fell 2.0% on year in the first quarter, after a 6.7% contraction in the previous quarter.

Measured over the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, manufacturing rebounded by 18.2% in the first quarter after a 4.9% decline in the previous three months. Construction jumped 10.2% on quarter after 6.0% growth in the fourth quarter.

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JAKARTA. Jepang tidak memiliki alasan untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar mata uang saat ini untuk menghentikan apresiasi yen, kata kepala perwakilan IMF untuk Jepang, Luc Everaert

Menurut Luc, jika tidak ada pergerakan yang luar biasa pada nilai tukar, tak ada alasan bagi Jepang untuk campur tangan saat ini.

“Yang lebih penting saat ini adalah Jepang mengadopsi kebijakan dalam negeri untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi, serta membiarkan nilai tukar bergerak dengan sendirinya,” katanya seperti yang dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (14/4/2016).

Yen telah menguat 11% sepanjang tahun ini sehingga menghambat upaya Gubernur Haruhiko Kuroda untuk mencapai target inflasi 2% dan menekan daya saing eksportir Jepang. IMF baru saja memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk Jepang, dan sekarang memprediksi produk domestik bruto hanya meningkat 0,5% tahun ini dan akan terkontraksi pada tahun 2017.

Komentar Luc menunjukkan bahwa apappun masalah yang dihadapi Jepang, rencana intervensi dari pemerintah akan direspon dingin oleh para gubernur bank sentral dan menteri keuangan yang dijadwalkan berkumpul di Washington pekan ini.

http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160413/93/537516/imf-belum-waktunya-jepang-intervensi-pasar-mata-uang
Sumber : BISNIS.COM

 

INILAHCOM, Washington – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia hanya akan mencapai 3,2 persen pada 2016. Itu turun 0,2 persen dari prediksi Januari 2016, yakni 3,4 persen.

Ketua Ekonom IMF Maurice Obstfeld mengatakan dalam konferensi pers tentang Perkiraan Ekonomi Dunia (WEO) di Kantor Pusat IMF di Washington, Amerika Serikat, Selasa pagi waktu setempat, bahwa penurunan prediksi itu merefleksikan kelesuan ekonomi di semua kelompok negara.

“Pelambatan tersebut terjadi akibat berlanjutnya tren yang telah kami kemukakan sebelumnya (WEO Januari 2016),” tegas dia.

Obstfeld mengatakan tren tersebut terjadi sejak tahun lalu, yakni penjualan tiba-tiba aset berisiko, peningkatan kekhawatiran pasar, penurunan tajam harga minyak dan komoditas lainnya. Berdasarkan perkiraan tersebut, IMF memprediksi pertumbuhan kelompok ekonomi maju turun antara 0,3-0,5 persen, antara lain Amerika Serikat sebesar 2,4 persen, kawasan Euro (Jerman, Prancis, Italia, Spanyol) 1,5 persen, Jepang 0,5 persen, dan negara maju lainnya di luar G7 (AS, Kanada, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, Jepang, Inggris) sebesar 2,1 persen.

Sementara itu, untuk kelompok ekonomi tumbuh dan berkembang di wilayah Asia, IMF memprediksi angka pertumbuhan tetap atau naik sedikit antara 0,1-0,2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Negara-negara dalam kelompok tersebut, yakni hina mencapai 6,5 persen (naik 0,2 persen), India 7,5 persen (tetap) dan ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Vietnam, Thailand) 4,8 persen (tetap).

Meskipun demikian, Obstfeld memperingatkan bahwa risiko pelambatan akan semakin besar pada negara dengan upah yang stagnan dan kesenjangan ekonomi masyarakat tinggi, tanpa ada kebijakan untuk menutup perbedaan tersebut.

“Kesan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menguntungkan kelompok elit dan pemilik modal akan meluas,” kata dia.

IMF mengusulkan tiga kebijakan utama untuk mengatasi kelesuan dan menjaga pertumbuhan ekonom di tengah kelesuan global, yakni melaui pendekatan moneter, fiskal dan struktur ekonomi. Konferensi pers IMF tentang WEO 2016, Selasa, menjadi acara awalan dalam rangkaian Pertemuan Musim Semi IMF-Bank Dunia di Washington, Amerika Serikat 13-17 April 2016. [tar]

– See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2287835/imf-prediksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-32-persen#sthash.OGYPTNhJ.dpuf

WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com2e615-padi2bkapas SMALL – Dana Moneter Internasional atau International Monetary Fund (IMF) memangkas estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global jadi 3,2 persen dari semula 3,4 persen di Januari.

Pertumbuhan ini lebih rendah ketimbang estimasi pertumbuhan di Juli dan Oktober tahun lalu.

Sementara untuk 2017, estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global mencapai 3,5 persen, atau turun 1 persen dibanding estimasi di Januari.

IMF memperingatkan adanya risiko dari isolasi politik akibat kemungkinan keluarnya Inggris dari Uni Eropa.

IMF juga memperingatkan adanya risiko kesenjangan pertumbuhan ekonomi, akibat pemangkasan estimasi pertumbuhan global yang keempat kalinya dalam setahun.

Ketua Ekonom IMF Maurice Obstfeld mengatakan dalam konferensi pers tentang Perkiraan Ekonomi Dunia (WEO) di Kantor Pusat IMF di Washington, Amerika Serikat, Selasa pagi waktu setempat, bahwa penurunan prediksi itu merefleksikan kelesuan ekonomi di semua kelompok negara.

“Perlambatan tersebut terjadi akibat berlanjutnya tren yang telah kami kemukakan sebelumnya (WEO Januari 2016),” kata dia.

Obstfeld mengatakan tren tersebut terjadi sejak tahun lalu, yakni penjualan tiba-tiba aset berisiko, peningkatan kekhawatiran pasar, penurunan tajam harga minyak dan komoditas lain.

Berdasarkan perkiraan tersebut, IMF memprediksi pertumbuhan kelompok ekonomi maju turun antara 0,3-0,5 persen.

Rinciannya, Amerika Serikat sebesar 2,4 persen, kawasan Euro (Jerman, Prancis, Italia, Spanyol) 1,5 persen, Jepang 0,5 persen, dan negara maju lainnya di luar G7 (AS, Kanada, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, Jepang, Inggris) sebesar 2,1 persen.

Ekonomi Asia

Sementara itu, IMF menyatakan untuk kelompok ekonomi tumbuh dan berkembang di wilayah Asia, angka pertumbuhan tetap atau naik sedikit antara 0,1-0,2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya di Januari.

Negara-negara dalam kelompok tersebut, yakni Tiongkok mencapai 6,5 persen (naik 0,2 persen), India 7,5 persen (tetap) dan ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Vietnam, Thailand) 4,8 persen (tetap).

Meskipun demikian, Obstfeld memperingatkan bahwa risiko perlambatan akan semakin besar pada negara dengan upah yang stagnan dan kesenjangan ekonomi masyarakat yang tinggi, tanpa ada kebijakan untuk menutup perbedaan tersebut.

“Kesan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menguntungkan kelompok elit dan pemilik modal akan meluas,” kata dia.

IMF mengusulkan tiga kebijakan utama untuk mengatasi kelesuan dan menjaga pertumbuhan ekonom di tengah kelesuan global, yakni melaui pendekatan moneter, fiskal dan struktur ekonomi.

Konferensi pers IMF tentang WEO 2016, Selasa, menjadi acara awalan dalam rangkaian Pertemuan Musim Semi IMF-Bank Dunia di Washington, AS, pada 13-17 April 2016.

Editor : Aprillia Ika
Sumber : Reuters

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TOMOMI KIKUCHI, Nikkei staff writer

SINGAPORE – The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for developing East Asia and the Pacific region this year to 6.3%, 0.1 point down from its projection in October. It expects China’s slowdown and the decline in commodity prices to continue to weigh on regional growth.

The latest forecast is slightly lower than the 6.5% reported by developing economies in the region, including China and those in Southeast Asia, in 2015. Including newly industrialized economies such as Singapore and Korea, the growth rate for the region is projected to stay flat from last year at 5.7%.

The bank said that the growth slowdown “reflects mainly the ongoing growth moderation in China.” It however maintained China’s growth projection for 2016 at 6.7%.

Slowing demand from China will hit Southeast Asia, especially commodities exporters like Malaysia. The World Bank lowered this year’s growth projection for Malaysia from 4.7% to 4.4% in its April report. That forecast is down from the 5% growth Malaysia reported in 2015.

The economies in Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to grow by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively. Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected at 5.1%, exceeding last year’s reported 4.8%. World Bank noted that the outlook for Indonesia is “contingent on the implementation of an ambitious public investment program and the success of recent reforms to reduce red tape and uncertainty for private investors.”

East Asia Pacific shone above the other emerging economies last year, accounting for around 40% of the global growth in 2015. This was also due to lackluster performance in other emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.

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NEW DELHI – Direktur Pelaksana Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) Christine Lagarde meminta Asia mengambil alih kepemimpinan dalam perekonomian global, mengingat proporsinya yang terus bertumbuh. Ia menyebut reformasireformasi struktural untuk meningkatkan daya saing, pertumbuhan, serta penciptaan lapangan kerja adalah kuncinya.

Dalam konferensi Advancing Asia di New Delhi, India, akhir pekan lalu, Lagarde mengatakan bahwa Asia saat ini adalah kawasan paling dinamis di seluruh dunia. Reformasi- reformasi struktural menjadi kunci karena perannya yang semakin penting bagi perekonomian global.

Ia menyebutkan, Asia sudah menyumbang 40% perekonomian dunia dan dalam empat tahun ke depan bisa bertambah menjadi hampir dua pertiga. “Mengingat peran ekonominya yang sangat vital, seluruh dunia menjadi sangat berkepentingan terhadap hampir seluruh dinamika di Asia,” kata Lagarde, yang tampil sepanggung dengan Perdana Menteri (PM) India Narendra Modi.

Pengaruh Asia terhadap dunia sudah jauh lebih besar dibandingkan sebelumnya, tambah dia, lantaran keterhubungan antarnegaranya kian meningkat. Sebaliknya, dalam beberapa hal Asia juga sekarang jauh lebih terdampak oleh perkembangan-perkembangan ekonomi global dibandingkan sebelumnya. Asia harus meresponsnya.

Karena tantangan- tantangan yang dihadapi ekonomi dunia makin berat, lanjut Lagarde (60 tahun), peningkatan daya saing dan penciptaan lapangan kerja lewat reformasi struktural sangat penting untuk menjamin pertumbuhan di masa depan.

Lagarde, yang baru terpilih kembali bulan lalu untuk masa jabatan lima tahun kedua, menjelaskan bahwa pesatnya integrasi Asia sebagai salah satu perkembangan paling mencengangkan dalam satu generasi terakhir di dunia. Banyak negara Asia yang menunjukkan keajaiban-keajaiban ekonomi, bahkan beberapa di antaranya menjadi kekuatan-kekuatan dunia.

Meski begitu, ia meminta para pembuat kebijakan di Asia untuk meningkatkan respons terhadap beragam tantangan global. Ini berupa volatilitas di pasar saham, aliran modal, pengetatan finansial, dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditas. (afp/gor)

http://id.beritasatu.com/international/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-di-tangan-asia/141085
Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY

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Bisnis.com, NEW DELHI–International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengindikasikan ada sejumlah situasi buram masih membayangi regional Asia pada tahun-tahun ini.

Dalam pidato pembukaan Konferensi Regional Advancing Asia: Investing for the Future, Sabtu (12/3/2016), Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde menyatakan situasi tersebut antara lain meliputi pasar yang volatil, intaian capital outflow, perlemahan harga komoditas dan konflik geopolitis.

Selain itu, dia secara resmi meluncurkan Technical and Assistance Training Centre untuk kawasan Asia Selatan, guna meminimalisir efek buruk dari perlemahan ekonomi global dan situasi-situasi tersebut.

Lagarde yang baru saja terpilih sebagai eksekutif puncak IMF menyatakan, pusat pelatihan ini diharapkan bisa membantu negara-negara Asia Selatan untuk terus meraup momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi.

“Momentum pertumbuhan tinggi negara-negara Asia Selatan memiliki dampak positif terhadap ekonomi global. Namun, apa yang terjadi secara global juga berdampak pada kawasan ini,” ujar Lagarde di hadapan para delegasi yang mewakili 30 negara di Asia.

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WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) menyatakan ekonomi global kini menghadapi risiko tergelincir. Deputi Direktur IMF David Lipton menyerukan kepada seluruh negara segera melakukan tindakan guna menggenjot permintaan global. “Jelas kita berada pada titik itu. Pantauan terakhir IMF terhadap perekonomian global sekali lagi menunjukkan titik pelemahan,” ujar Lipton di Washington DC, Amerika Serikat.

Komentar IMF ini muncul setelah data perdagangan China yang lebih rendah dari prediksi, menunjukkan bahwa ekspor pada  Februari anjlok dibandingkan kuartal yang sama tahun lalu. Dengan demikian, permintaan global dan indikator ekonomi global secara umum dapat diprediksi.

Sebelumnya, IMF telah menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global menjadi 3,4 persen. Bulan lalu, IMF telah menyerukan kepada pemimpin dunia bahwa ekonomi global sangat rapuh. Lantaran itulah,  dunia perlu melakukan serangkaian upaya guna meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Dalam laporan yang dirilis saat pertemuan G20 di Shanghai, China beberapa waktu lalu, IMF menyatakan G20 harus merencanakan program stimulus secara terkoordinasi seiring perlambatan ekonomi global dan dapat terganggu lebih lanjut karena turbulensi pasar, fluktuasi harga minyak, dan konflik geopolitik. “Kesulitan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan terjadi pada negara maju. Risiko pelemahan lebih terlihat dibandingkan kondisi sebelumnya. Oleh sebab itu, perlu dilakukan aksi kebijakan yang lebih kuat dan konkret,” jelas Lipton.

Lipton pun menyatakan, risiko pelemahan ekonomi global telah meningkat. Hal ini sejalan dengan kondisi pasar finansial yang rapuh dan harga komoditas dunia yang masih saja rendah, yang menciptakan kekhawatiran lebih lanjut terhadap “kesehatan” ekonomi dunia.

Penulis : Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan
Editor : Josephus Primus
Sumber : bbc.co.uk

KESEPAKATAN 29 Feb 2016:rose KECIL

SHANGHAI kontan. Pemimpin keuangan Kelompok 20 (G20) berkomitmen melaksanakan kegiatan yang bertujuan membantu pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Komitmen tersebut muncul di tengah kekhawatiran munculnya kebijakan moneter yang justru menyulitkan keadaan.

Seperti diberitakan Bloomberg, Sabtu (27/2), para menteri keuangan G20 menyatakan akan menggunakan kebijakan fiskal secara fleksibel untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lapangan kerja. Kebijakan moneter saja tidak akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan yang seimbang.

Mereka juga sepakat akan menahan diri untuk bersaing mendevaluasi nilai tukar mata uang negara masing-masing. Sebaliknya, mereka akan saling berkoordinasi dan berkonsultasi terkait nilai tukar.

“Kami akan menggunakan semua alat kebijakan, moneter, fiskal dan struktural untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan investasi dan menjamin stabilitas pasar keuangan,” demikian pernyataan resmi G20 saat mengakhiri pertemuan yang berlangsung di China, Sabtu pekan lalu.

Asal tahu saja, China dalam enam bulan terakhir telah mendevaluasi mata uangnya dengan sangat cepat. Tindakan tersebut memicu kemarahan negara lain, salah satunya Amerika Serikat (AS) yang menuding China hanya ingin menang sendiri.

Tahun lalu, pertumbuhan ekonomi China tercatat hanya 6,9%. Tahun ini, target pertumbuhan China akan dipublikasikan pada akhir pekan ini. Sejumlah analis meramal, China bakal membukukan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6,5% pada di tahun 2016.

Sebelumnya, ekonom Citi telah memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global tahun 2016 dari sebelumnya 2,7% menjadi 2,5%. Ini disebabkan perlambatan perekonomian negara-negara maju.

Menurut Citi, pertumbuhan ekonomi global bisa melorot di bawah 2% bila pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara berkembang melambat.

Sementara, Dana Moneter Internasional atau International Monetary Fund (IMF) memangkas prediksi ekonomi dunia tumbuh 3,4% dari sebelumnya 3,6%.

Para pemimpin ekonomi G20 juga menilai ekonomi dunia akan shock jika Inggris memutuskan keluar dari Uni Eropa. G20 mengindikasikan tahun ini risiko penurunan dan kerentanan ekonomi kian meningkat akibat hengkangnya modal asing, penurunan harga komoditas, isu geopolitik serta isu cabutnya Inggris dari Uni Eropa atau british exit (Brexit).

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SHANGHAI kontan. Bursa China anjlok lagi hari ini (29/2). Mengutip data Bloomberg, pada penutupan sesi pertama, indeks Shanghai Composite tergerus 3,4% menjadi 2.673,36.

Jika ditotal, sepanjang Februari, indeks acuan Negeri Panda ini sudah turun 2,4%. Sedangkan pada Januari lalu, penurunannya mencapai 23%.

Dalam setiap 20 saham yang melorot, hanya ada satu saham yang berhasil naik.

Sementara itu, indeks Hang Seng China Enterprises Index turun 1,2% pada hari ini. Adapun indeks Hang Seng tertekan 0,9%.

Aksi jual yang melanda bursa China dipicu oleh kekecewaan investor atas pertemuan G20 di Shanghai. Pada pertemuan itu, tidak ada kebijakan spesifik yang dikeluarkan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia.

Menurut JK Life Insurance Co, investor berharap pemerintah akan mengumumkan kebijakan baru untuk mengerek perekonomian pada pekan ini.

“Investor merasa kecewa atas minimnya kabar baik dari pertemuan G20. Di sisi lain, yuan mulai melemah lagi,” jelas Steve Wang, chief China economist Reorient Financial Markets Ltd di Hong Kong.

 

Negara-negara anggota G20 mencapai sederet kesepakatan mulai dari percepatan reformasi struktural, menjalin keterbukaan kebijakan, hingga mengevaluasi ulang kebijakan suku bunga negatif dan pemberian stimulus ekonomi. Sesuai dengan perkiraan para investor.

Pasalnya, hingga akhir pertemuan, para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral G20 jus tru tidak memasukkan agenda penambahan stimulus dalam kesimpulan akhir. Dalam pertemuan yang digelar pada 26-27 Februari, para pejabat G20 tidak menemukan kesamaan pemikiran terkait dengan pemberian stimulus. Hal ini memicu kekhawatiran para investor akan kondisi yang tak berubah di pasar selama beberapa waktu ke depan. Pasalnya, dengan tak adanya kesimpulan terkait penambahan stimulus, para investor yakin, Jepang dan Uni Eropa hanya akan menambahkan sedikit stimulus pada Maret.
Sumber : IPS RESEARCH

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reuters: Asian stocks were off to a cautious start on Monday after a weekend meeting of the Group of 20 economic policymakers ended with no new coordinated action to spur global growth and as solid U.S. data revived expectation of a U.S. rate hike before year-end.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dipped 0.2 percent, while Australian shares were up 0.4 percent and South Korean shares were flat.KS11.

Japan’s Nikkei .N225 gained 1.0 percent largely on the overnight fall in the yen while U.S. stock futures ESc1 were little changed from late last week.

G20 finance ministers and central bankers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals, citing a series of risks to world growth.

Some market players say the statement could mildly underpin market sentiment, but the lack of any concrete action plans provided for few catalysts.

“The G20 communique basically says 1) the world is not as bad a place as markets think; and 2) if it gets worse we will use fiscal, monetary and structural policy aggressively to fix it,” Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX Strategy at CitiFX, said in a note to clients.

“In baseball parlance, they were aiming for a single in terms of restoring confidence and they probably achieved it,” he added.

Fresh U.S. economic data published on Friday revived expectations of Federal Reserve rate increases, helping to lift U.S. bond yields and the dollar.

Consumer spending rose solidly in January and underlying inflation picked up by the most in four years. Gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter was revised higher, to a 1.0 percent annual rate

The figures prompted Federal funds rate futures <0#FF:> to price in a more than 50 percent chance of one rate hike by the end of year, compared to almost zero percent chance in mid-February.

The two-year U.S. Treasuries yield US2YT=RR also hit a four-week high of 0.817 percent on Friday and last stood at 0.801 percent versus its Feb 11 low of 0.582 percent.

The greenback’s yield allure helped lift the dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies .DXY =USD to a three-week high of 98.26 on Friday. It last stood at 98.13.

As the dollar gained, the euro EUR= fetched $1.0920, having slipped to a three-week low of $1.0912 on Friday. In early Asia on Monday, it traded at $1.0931, flat on the day.

The yen JPY= also slipped to one-week low of 114 to the dollar on Friday but bounced back 0.2 percent on Monday to 113.75.

Fears of “Brexit” offered traders a good excuse to sell the British pound, which fell to a seven-year low of $1.3854 GBP=D4.

Although the British government managed to get G20 to agree to include a warning against “Brexit” in the statement, that appeared to have limited impact, with sterling trading slightly weaker at $1.3861.

In the oil market, U.S. crude futures CLc1 were little moved at $32.76 per barrel, holding on to their 11 percent gains made last week, its steepest weekly rise since August.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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 Szu Ping Chan

Global finance chiefs laid bare their differences over how to revive the economy on Friday as analysts warned that “policy paralysis” would spark fresh market turmoil.

As George Osborne, the Chancellor, said the risks facing the world were at their “most heightened” since the financial crisis, Jack Lew, the US Treasury Secretary, said leaders would need to use “all policy levers” to boost growth and lift the world out of its current malaise.

“That means using fiscal levers as well as monetary policy and structural reforms,” he said on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Shanghai, China.

His comments were supported by China’s central bank governor, who sought to reassure investors that the world’s second largest economy would not suffer a hard landing.

 

“China will strike a balance between growth, restructuring and risk management,” said Zhou Xiaochuan.

Mr Zhou also reiterated that China would not devalue its currency again to try to boost the economy. He said there was “no basis for persistent renminbi depreciation”.

However, Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, rejected the idea of co-ordinated stimulus.

He said monetary firepower was now limited, while growth fuelled by government spending alone risked “zombifying” economies.

“Talking about further stimulus just distracts from the real tasks at hand,” he said. “We, therefore, do not agree on a G20 fiscal stimulus package as some argue, in case outlook risks materialise.”

Analysts at Citi said markets were watching the meeting in Shanghai closely for signs that policymakers were prepared to deploy immediate action to prevent a slowdown rather than reiterate a 2014 commitment to boost growth.

Steven Englander, head of currency strategy at the bank, said failure to do so would be taken badly by investors.

“Keeping the previous language would be very disappointing and would be viewed as either complacent or reflecting policy paralysis. [The G20 needs to] man up and tell member countries that monetary policy should be accompanied by fiscal expansion,” he said.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s richest economies met for dinner in Shanghai on Friday to discuss the recent financial turmoil.

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, warned that low growth could become permanent in advanced economies unless governments implemented vital reforms.

A communiqué is expected at the conclusion of the meeting on Saturday.

Mr Osborne tweeted that the “risks facing the global economy [were at the] most heightened since the crash”.

Mr Osborne said the pound’s recent drop underlined his argument.

“You have seen the value of the pound fall and it reminds us all…this is about people’s jobs and their livelihoods and their living standards,” he told the BBC.

“In my judgment as Chancellor, leaving the EU would represent a profound economic shock for our country, for all of us, and I’m going to do everything I can to prevent that happening.”

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JAKARTA kontan. Indonesia tengah diuntungkan dengan kebijakan moneter sejumlah negara. Dampak ketidakpastian akibat perbedaan arah kebijakan moneter di berbagai negara mulai menyempit.

Pelonggaran kebijakan moneter seperti yang dilakukan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) makin dominan. Kedua negara ini telah menerapkan suku bunga negatif untuk mendorong ekonominya.

Nah, kondisi itu akan membuat aliran dana yang selama ini berada di negara-negara tersebut mencari tempat yang menguntungkan. Indonesia, dengan tingkat bunga yang lebih tinggi menjadi salah satu muara dari dana-dana itu.

Mantan Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri menilai, kebijakan negara Eropa dan Jepang itu menutup kebimbangan pasar atas rencana bank sentral AS Federal Reserve menaikkan suku bunganya (Fed fund rate). Akibatnya, aliran modal yang sempat pergi dari emerging market terpaksa kembali lagi.

Jadi, situasinya saat ini akan banyak dana yang akan masuk ke pasar keuangan dan pasar modal dalam negeri. “Ini yang mendorong nilai tukar rupiah menguat,” kata Chatib, Kamis (25/2) di Jakarta.

Dalam jangka pendek ini baik. Tetapi. dia mengingatkan, Indonesia memiliki pengalaman buruk dengan arus modal dana panas ke pasar modal dan pasar keuangan.

Ketika Indonesia disesaki hot money sebagai dampak Quantitative Easing periode 2009-2013, rupiah menguat seperti sekarang.

Namun, hot money itu berpeluang kembali. Dalam beberapa saat bisa hilang dari pasar dalam negeri. Jika terjadi capital outflow, pasar keuangan maupun pasar modal akan mengalami guncangan.

Belajar dari kondisi itu, pemerintah harus memastikan, aliran dana asing itu tersimpan dalam jangka waktu lama.

Instrumen untuk bisa merealisasikan itu adalah melalui Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) atau investasi yang masuk ke sektor riil.

Sebab, jika masuk melalui FDI dana asing akan tersimpan lebih lama. Karena umumnya FDI merupakan proyek yang secara fisik terlihat.

Oleh karena itu, ia menilai tepat kebijakan pemerintah yang membuka lebar peluang FDI masuk dengan revisi Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI). Risikonya, pemerintah akan mendapatkan stigma yang mendukung neoliberlaisme. Nah, karena itu pelonggaran investasi asing ini juga harus dilakukan secara bertahap.

Apakah cukup disitu? Belum, tingginya investasi yang masuk juga masih memabwa risiko lain. Yaitu melebarnya current account defisit (CAD) alias defisit neraca transaksi berjalan.

Teorinya, jika investasi meningkat, maka impor barang modal dan bahan baku juga naik. Ini akan mendorong CAD lebih besar. Oleh karenanya, tugas pemrintah juga untuk menjaga CAD tetap aman. Mengingat, CAD sangat sensntif di mata market.

Namun, pelebaran CAD ini diperkirakan masih akan terjadi dalam satu hingga dua tahun mendatang. Nah, sambil menunggu hal itu pemerintah bisa mempersiapkan diri dengan mendorong industri manufaktur, dan hilirisasi. Supaya ketergantungan akan impor berkurang. (Asep Munazat Zatnika K.)

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WASHINGTON – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingatkan bahwa perekonomian dunia sangat rentan dan menyerukan mekanisme baru untuk melindungi negara-negara yang paling rentan.

Dalam laporan tentang tantangan ekonomi menjelang pertemuan para kepala keuangan negara-negara kuat Kelompok 20 atau G20 di Shanghai, pemberi pinjaman krisis global itu mengatakan pertumbuhan dunia telah melambat dan bisa tergelincir oleh gejolak pasar, kejatuhan harga minyak dan konflik geopolitik.

“Pemulihan global telah melemah di tengah meningkatnya keuangan turbulensi dan penurunan harga-harga aset,” kata IMF.

“Respon kebijakan yang kuat, baik di tingkat nasional maupun multilateral, diperlukan untuk mengatasi risiko-risiko dan mendorong perekonomian global ke jalur yang lebih sejahtera.”

Laporan itu, yang akan disampaikan pada pada pertemuan para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral ekonomi-ekonomi terkemuka G20 di Shanghai pada Jumat dan Sabtu, mengatakan Dana mengharapkan menurunkan proyeksinya untuk pertumbuhan dunia 2016, hampir enam minggu setelah membuat estimasi terbarunya 3,4 persen.

“Kegiatan global telah melambat secara tak terduga pada akhir 2015, dan telah melemah pada awal 2016 di tengah penurunan harga-harga aset,” kata laporan itu.

Bagaimana negara-negara harus bereaksi terhadap ancaman pada pertumbuhan akan menjadi agenda utama dalam pembicaraan di Shanghai. IMF mendesak negara-negara untuk meningkatkan stimulus fiskal dan mendorong melalui reformasi-reformasi untuk meningkatkan permintaan.

Dikatakannya, bank-bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS, harus mempertahankan kebijakan moneter akomodatif untuk memastikan kondisi-kondisi keuangan lebih ketat tidak menghambat momentum pertumbuhan.

Namun, IMF menekankan, “untuk menghindari ketergantungan lebih besar pada kebijakan moneter, kebijakan fiskal jangka pendek akan mendukung pemulihan bila memungkinkan dan asalkan ada ruang fiskal, fokus pada investasi.” Selain guncangan ekonomi dunia dari pelambatan Tiongkok dan kejatuhan harga-harga komoditas, IMF mengatakan isu geopolitik seperti krisis pengungsi Suriah dan meningkatnya infeksi di Amerika Latin dari virus Zika menimbulkan ancaman ekonomi.

Untuk negara-negara yang memikul beban terbesar dari krisis mereka, dan negara-negara yang dinyatakan fit tetapi dibiarkan rentan dengan penurunan komoditas-komoditas, IMF mengatakan jaring pengaman keuangan dunia yang meliputi program-program milik Dana sendiri bisa ditingkatkan.

Tanpa spesifik, IMF menyerukan mekanisme pembiayaan baru untuk membantu negara-negara dalam gejolak keuangan.

“Banyak negara di pusat guncangan tersebut memikul beban untuk orang lain, dengan kapasitas dan ruang fiskal sering terbatas,” kata laporan itu.

“Menyadari publik global ramah dari tindakan-tindakah mereka, mereka bisa didukung oleh inisiatif terkoordinasi seluruh dunia untuk memberikan dukungan keuangan.” sambungnya.
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/02/25/20/1320939/imf-peringatkan-ekonomi-dunia-sangat-rentan?page=2

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Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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Hong Kong, Feb 25, 2016 (AFP)
Chinese stocks plunged on Thursday morning, with Shanghai dropping more than three percent as G20 ministers began gathering for a meeting in the city under a cloud of economic concerns.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.61 percent, or 105.84 points, to 2,823.06 by lunch ahead of the meeting of rich nations, which kicks off on Friday.

The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, slumped 4.76 percent, or 89.39 points, to 1,787.08.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23 percent, or 235.79 points, to 18,956.66.

bloomberg: Will we ever really get over the financial crisis? Six years or more on from the start of it, the world economy is still struggling to generate a convincing recovery.

Among the headwinds is debt, the factor that took us into the crisis in the first place.

In the meantime, since the crisis began global debt has actually risen. The hoped-for financial healing has happened only in a few scattered parts of the global economy.

The most recent figures come from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a group that represents the financial services industry. As of June this year it estimated that global debt, excluding the financial sector, was equivalent to 245% of total global economic activity or GDP. That’s up from 214% in September 2008 when the financial crisis was going into its most intense phase.

global debt outstanding chart

The IIF describes the continued build-up of debt as “worrisome”.

These figures cover debts owed by governments, households and businesses outside the financial sector. They don’t cover all countries, but the vast bulk of global debt is included.

Financial companies, such as banks, have reduced their debts. The IIF says that is desirable, but as they are essentially intermediaries between the ultimate lenders and borrowers, “their debt reduction does not influence the assessment of sustainability of the debt burden to the economy”.

What deleveraging?

The persistence of the debt problem was highlighted by another recent study by the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMBS) and it tells a similar story.

Its language is rather technical, referring to leverage, which in this context is a measure of debt burdens.

Its title gives the key conclusion: “Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?”

To quote the report’s assessment slightly more fully: “Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to de-lever and the global debt-to-GDP [ratio] is still growing, breaking new highs.”

If you do include the financial sector for the rich economies, the total figure in the ICMBS report has at least stabilised at 385% of their collective GDP, a level that is nonetheless very close to its all-time high.

Those countries were the source of the bulk of the build-up in global debt levels before the crisis.

Since then, it is the developing world, especially China that has driven the rise in debt. In the case of China, the report describes the rise in debt as “stellar”. Excluding financial companies it has increased by 72 percentage points to a level far higher than any other emerging economy. The report says there have been marked increases in Turkey, Argentina and Thailand as well.

Emerging economies are particularly worrying for the authors of the report: “They could be at the epicentre of the next crisis. Although the level of leverage is higher in developed markets, the speed of the recent leverage process in emerging economies, and especially in Asia, is indeed an increasing concern.”

emerging markets debt outstanding chart

Although the most recent financial crisis was in the rich countries we don’t have to go all that far back in history to find debt crises in emerging economies that caused tremors, though not full-scale financial earthquakes, around the world.

There were a succession of crises beginning with Mexico in 1996, continuing in Asia, Russia, Turkey, Brazil and then Argentina early in the following decade.

Signs of improvement

There are also some, though not many, more positive signs in the global debt situation.

In the rich countries, the financial sector has reduced its debt.

mature markets debt outstanding chart

The UK and the United States account for most of that. In the UK, however, while it has fallen it is still at historically very high levels.

The same two countries have seen significant reductions in household debt, measured as a percentage of GDP.

But government debt has risen in both. For the UK, if you add that still high financial sector debt you get a total just shy of 500% of GDP. To spell it out, that is the estimate from the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies and it covers households, business, including the banks, and the government.

The British figure is a good deal higher than the US or the average for the eurozone but significantly lower than Japan. On government debt alone, the British figure (for 2013) is lower than the US or, by a small margin the eurozone.

UK, US debt breakdown chart

Now there is an argument that debts are less troublesome if they are owed by governments rather than by households. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote: “Families have to pay back their debt. Governments don’t – all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base.”

But others, such as American professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff,argue that beyond a certain point, government debt tends to hold back economic growth. They say the threshold is about 90% of GDP. A significant number of countries, mainly rich ones are close to or above those levels. Their work has been the subject of controversy. While admitting some errors, they have defended it.

‘Poison’

In any event, the authors of the ICMBS report argue that there are features of the current situation that make the large debt burden, public and private, more of a problem. They refer to the “poisonous combination of rising leverage and slowing growth”.

The point is that debt payments – interest and repayments of the original loan – are easier to keep up-to-date for borrowers with a rising income.

And that brings us to the “poison” that the ICMBS report refers to. Debt is high and economies are growing more slowly than before the crisis, so they are not generating the incomes to service the debt as rapidly as they were.

There has also been a fall in inflation rates in many countries. Inflation can help limit debt burdens. Household incomes, company revenues and government tax receipts all rise but debt payments are often fixed. Low inflation, especially if it is lower than borrowers expected when they took their loan, weakens that process and leaves debt burdens heavier than they would have been.

But there are some who say the picture painted by the ICMBS report is excessively gloomy. You can find some of them in the report itself, which includes a record of a discussion of its findings.

Mark Carey of the US Federal Reserve said he would have toned down a little the size of the disaster we are facing, and that the situation is not as bad as described. He said there is no obvious downtrend in economic growth and pointed out that a great deal of American debt has a variable interest rate. That would reduce the debt burden as inflation falls.

Angel Ubide of DE Shaw Group and the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington described the assessment of China as “a bit apocalyptic” and thought it should have been more balanced. He saw a prospect for credit going increasingly to highly productive private firms – which would presumably be able to meet their debt obligations.

Carlo Monticelli of Italy’s Ministry of Economy and Finance recalled that China has $4 trillion in foreign reserves. He also noted the large numbers of people still in the countryside who could support further economic growth by moving to industry or becoming more productive farmers. That implies more economic growth to meet the debt payments.

The conclusion: there is not really any consensus on just how worried we should be about the global debt situation or China’s in particular. But you can be sure that economic policy officials – in central banks, finance ministries and international agencies such as the IMF – will be watching it warily. You can also be sure that we won’t really be shot of the legacy of the financial crisis for a long time yet.

G20 GDP growth stable at 0.7% in the third quarter of 2015

 

Download the entire news release (PDF 120KB)

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Washington, Feb 5, 2016 (AFP)
US President Barack Obama on Friday hailed the new drop in the country’s unemployment rate to an eight-year low of 4.9 percent, saying Americans could be “proud of the progress we’ve made.”

“We have recovered from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the worst in my lifetime and the lifetime of most of the people in this room, and we’ve done it faster, stronger, better, more durably than just about any other advanced economy,” Obama told reporters.

Washington, Jan 26, 2016 (AFP)
US consumer confidence improved slightly in January, building on a gain in December, as the medium-term outlook improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 98.1 from 96.3 in December, the Conference Board said.

Consumer views of current economic conditions were relatively unchanged.

But they grew more confident in the outlook in the six months ahead, with respondents in the survey ended January 14 anticipating slight improvement in business conditions, job prospects and income growth.

“For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the research group.

“The stronger-than-expected outturn for consumer confidence in January supports our expectations that consumption growth will rebound in the coming months from the soft patch in Q4,” Barclays analyst Jesse Hurwitz said in a client note.

14/12/2015 – Real growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the G20 area remained stable at 0.7% in the third quarter of 2015, for the third consecutive quarter, but with diverging patterns across countries, according to preliminary estimates.

GDP growth accelerated strongly in Korea and Australia (to 1.3% and 0.9% respectively, compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter), and in Canada (to 0.6%, compared with minus 0.1%). It also turned up in Japan (to 0.3%, up from minus 0.1% in the previous quarter) and in South Africa (to 0.2%, up from minus 0.3% in the previous quarter). Economic growth accelerated more moderately in Mexico and France, to 0.8% and 0.3% respectively (compared with 0.6% and 0.0% in the previous quarter) and in India (to 1.9% compared with 1.7% in the previous quarter).

In China and Indonesia, economic growth remained unchanged at 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively. 

On the other hand, in the third quarter of 2015, GDP growth slowed in the United States and in the United Kingdom, to 0.5% (down from 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively, in the previous quarter), while it decelerated marginally (by 0.1% percentage point) in Turkey, Germany and Italy, to respectively 1.3%, 0.3% and 0.2%.

In Brazil, real GDP continued to contract, at a rate of minus 1.7%, following a decline of minus 2.1% in the previous quarter.

Compared with the same quarter of 2014, GDP growth for the G20 area slowed to 2.9% in the third quarter of 2015, compared with 3.1% in the previous quarter, withIndia recording the highest growth rate (7.1%), followed by China (6.9%). Brazil recorded the largest contraction (minus 4.4%).

 

Quarterly GDP in volume terms for the G20
Percentage change on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data

‌‌

Note: Growth rates presented in this chart are based on data with more than one decimal.

Link to underlying data – Source: Quarterly National Accounts

BEIJING sindonews- Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingatkan bahwa ekonomi global menghadapi risiko terus menurun dalam pertumbuhan sub-par. Negara-negara G20 sebaiknya mengambil reformasi struktural untuk mencegah risiko.

Lembaga yang berbasis di Washington ini merilis Catatan tentang prospek dan tantangan kebijakan global menjelang pertemuan G20 di Antalya, Turki.

“Dengan prospek ekonomi global berulang kali turun selama lima tahun terakhir, ada risiko nyata dari ekonomi dunia terus-menerus terperosok dalam pertumbuhan sub-par, dengan tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran tinggi,” kata laporan tersebut seperti dikutip dari Global Times, Jumat (13/11/2015).

Hal tersebut menunjukkan tiga transisi signifikan yang membebani prospek global dalam lingkungan meningkatkan ketidakpastian.

“The Federal Reserve (The Fed) siap menormalkan kebijakan moneter, sementara mata uang utama lainnya kemungkinan akan mengurangi lebih lanjut. Perekonomian China mengalami moderasi,” ujarnya.

IMF memperingatkan jika transisi tidak berhasil sesuai rencana, maka pertumbuhan global bisa tergelincir. Fed dapat meningkatkan volatilitas pasar keuangan, dengan bergerak berpotensi mengganggu arus modal dan harga aset.

IMF menyerukan reformasi struktural untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan di masa depan dengan langkah-langkah permintaan yang efektif.

Di negara berkembang, dukungan permintaan harus hati-hati terhadap kebutuhan. Sementara, IMF memperingatkan rebalancing China menghasilkan dampak situasi global yang besar dan bisa menjadi bergelombang.

IMF mengatakan, ekonomi China perlu transisi menuju jalur pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat, lebih berkelanjutan. Proses transisi dalam jangka pendek kemungkinan akan memerlukan spillovers melalui perdagangan dan komoditas.

Namun, masyarakat internasional harus mendukung China dalam upaya yang sulit ini sejak transisi akan menguntungkan pertumbuhan global dan mengurangi risiko.

IMF memproyeksikan ekonomi global menjadi 3,6% pada 2016, laju tercepat sejak 2011. Negara maju akan terus mendapatkan keuntungan dari kondisi moneter yang mendukung dan harga komoditas yang lebih rendah. Emerging ekonomi pasar juga akan diharapkan dapat untung tahun depan setelah lima tahun mengalami penurunan.

KTT G20 kesepuluh yang akan diselenggarakan pada 15-16 November di Antalya dinilai sangat tepat pada saat ekonomi dunia sedang menghadapi berbagai masalah termasuk perlambatan pertumbuhan, kebijakan berbeda, transisi dan perubahan, serta meningkatkan ketidakpastian.
(izz)

source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1061219/35/imf-warning-ekonomi-global-berisiko-terus-turun-1447385998

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pertemuan G20 di Turki dinilai sangat penting dilakukan pada saat ini untuk mencari jalan ke luar terkait perlambatan ekonomi global dan menurunnya harga komoditas.

“Penyelenggaraan KTT G20 kali ini sangat penting karena dilaksanakan di tengah kondisi ekonomi dunia yang sedang mengharapi tantangan yang berat,” kata Presiden Joko Widodo dalam konferensi pers di Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma Jakarta, Sabtu (14/11/2015).

Menurut Jokowi, perlambatan perekonomian dunia yang ditandai volatilitas pasar keuangan global yang semakin tinggi serta menurunnya harga komoditas di pasar dunia menjadi persoalan yang akan dibahas.

Selain itu, pertemuan tingkat tinggi ini juga akan membahas isu global lainnya termasuk upaya memerangi terorisme. Dengan kejadian aksi teror di Paris Prancis, pemerintah Indonesia mengajak semua semua pihak untuk memperkuat kerjasama internasional dalam menghadapi terorisme.

“Sekarang ini makin penting untuk membahas masalah-masalah global termasuk upaya memerangi terorisme,” jelasnya.

Confronting the Coming Liquidity Crisis

SAO PAULO – This month, G-20 leaders will meet in Antalya, Turkey, for their tenth summit since the 2007 global financial crisis. But, despite all of these meetings – high-profile events involving top decision-makers from the world’s most influential economies – no real progress has been made toward reforming the international financial architecture. Indeed, the group has not seriously engaged with the subject since the 2010 summit in Seoul. Put simply, the G-20 is failing in its primary and original purpose of enhancing global financial and monetary stability.

A big part of the problem is that the G-20 agenda has become increasingly congested over the years. At a time of looming financial upheaval, the G-20 must stop attempting to tackle a broad array of issues simultaneously – a goal that has proved impossible – and go back to basics.

The United States Federal Reserve is now preparing to raise interest rates, which it has kept near zero since the crisis. While monetary-policy tightening may be necessary, it risks triggering a serious liquidity crisis in developing countries, with a major impact on economic growth and development. That is why, at this month’s G-20 summit, participants must focus on providing a credible institutional backstop for the difficult times ahead.

Specifically, the G-20 should move to empower the International Monetary Fund, both by pushing it to do more with its existing powers and by championing institutional reform.Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India’s central bank, emphasized this at the recent annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Lima, Peru, when he called for the Fund to build a sustainable global safety net to help countries in future liquidity crisis.

The necessary institutional arrangement already exists: the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) department. Within this department, official entities can exchange SDRs – the IMF’s own international reserve asset – for other currencies. Moreover, the IMF can designate a country with a strong balance-of-payments position to provide the liquidity that another member needs. Through this so-called “designation mechanism” – which has never been used – the IMF can ensure certainty of access to global currencies in times of crisis.

Of course, if the IMF’s SDR department is to become a global liquidity hub capable of mitigating future crises, reform is vital. Ideally, major powers would support efforts to strengthen the IMF. But the US has so far been unwilling to do so, with domestic partisan politics spurring Congress to block the relevant reforms.

While the G-20 should not give up on IMF-strengthening reforms, it should hedge its bets. Specifically, it should work with a “coalition of the willing” – including the major emerging economies, concerned advanced countries, and other developing countries – to create an institutional mechanism with which to respond effectively to the next global liquidity crisis.

One obvious option would be to replicate the institutional design of the SDR department by incorporating it in an agreement among the coalition countries. The Bank for International Settlements, which was the counterparty in currency swaps under the Bretton Woods par value system in the 1960s, could be the manager of this system.

This approach undoubtedly has major shortcomings. Indeed, the key advantage of the IMF’s SDR department – that it is a quasi-universal and government-driven system whereby currencies are exchanged with reliable “collateral” (the SDR) – would be lost.

But the perfect should not be made the enemy of the good. As long as an ideal system is out of reach, an imperfect option will have to do. With the risk of a liquidity crisis intensifying, and the existing international financial architecture ill-equipped to respond to such a crisis, doing nothing is not an option.

In recent years, the international financial system has become increasingly fragmented, exemplified in the proliferation of bilateral and multilateral currency-swap arrangements. For example, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization involves the ASEAN countries, plus China, Japan, and South Korea. And the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) was created by the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa).

Swap contracts involve pre-committed resources, which are not transferred to an international organization with a specific institutional mission. Instead, foreign-exchange reserves – that is, liquidity in currencies accepted for international payments – are held in national agencies until a swap’s activation.

This means that there is no guarantee that, in the event of a crisis, a central bank will actually provide the swap line it has pledged, at least not without attaching political strings. In the CRA, for example, members can opt out of providing support – and can request early repayment if a balance-of-payments need arises.

Clearly, the world’s ever-expanding network of currency-swap arrangements is far from a reliable mechanism for responding to crisis. This is particularly problematic for the emerging economies, which are especially vulnerable now.

Turkey, which currently holds the G-20 presidency, and China, which will take over next year, should have plenty of motivation to demand action to create safeguards against today’s liquidity risks. Beyond urging the US to approve IMF governance reforms, both countries should be hard at work building a coalition of the willing and designing an effective crisis-response mechanism.

So far, Turkey seems to be falling short, promoting an overcrowded and ineffective agenda. One hopes that its leaders come to their senses fast, so that the upcoming summit can produce the results that past summits have failed to provide – and that the world needs more than ever.

Canada’s Flaherty says G20 likely to meet before February

economy watch: EM starts the week off on softer footing, as Friday’s jobs report supports the notion of December Fed lift-off.  USD/ZAR is making new all-time highs, and we expect most of EM to revisit the lows from August and September as the lift-off approaches.  Barring a disastrous November jobs report, we believe a rate hike will happen on December 16.  As such, we remain negative on EM near-term.

Recent China data suggest downside risks to regional growth, but the likelihood of further PBOC easing may help limit negative spillover into wider EM sentiment.  Confidence in India was dented by the ruling BJP loss in the Bihar state elections this weekend (see today’s report “India Election Results Sours the Mood”).  Political risk remains high in Brazil, but it has fallen in Turkey.

Mexico reports October CPI later today, and expects to 2.48% y/y vs. 2.52% in September.  This would be another all-time low, and there are simply no price pressures.  September IP and October ANTAD retail sales will report Wednesday.  IP expects to rise 1.2% y/y vs. 1.0% in August, while sales expect to rise 8.1% y/y vs. 8.0% in September.  Central bank minutes will release Thursday.  The tone of the statement was very dovish, and so we would expect the minutes to show a similar tone as well.  Earlier today, Mexico reported

China reports October CPI and PPI Tuesday.  The former expects to rise 1.5% y/y, while the latter expects to fall -5.9% y/y.  New money and loan data expect sometime this week.  October retail sales and IP will report Wednesday.  The former expects to rise 10.9% y/y, while the latter expects to rise 5.8% y/y.  Data should in general support the notion that the economy is stabilizing, but we still look for further PBOC easing.

Hungary reports October CPI Tuesday, and expects to be flat y/y vs. -0.4% in September.  Hungary reports Q3 GDP Friday, and expects to rise 2.5% y/y vs. 2.7% in Q2.  With deflation risks still high and the economy slowing, central bank officials have turned more dovish recently.  Forward guidance extends to 2017 (perhaps even longer) and they raised the possibility of unconventional measures.

Brazil reports the first preview of November IGP-M wholesale inflation Tuesday, and expects to rise 1.16% m/m.  If sustained for the month, the y/y would rise to 10.3% from 10.3% in October.  September retail sales will report Thursday, and expect at -7.3% y/y vs. -6.9% in August.  The economy remains too weak to hike rates any further, though it remains to see how markets react to steadily climbing inflation.

South Africa reports September manufacturing production Tuesday, and expects to contract -2.5% y/y vs. -0.2% in August.  SARB next meets on November 19.  With the economy still weak, we think the central bank will find it hard to continue its tightening cycle after restarting it with a 25 bp hike to 6% back in July.  We believe that political realities (unemployment above 25%) and social unrest will prevent this scenario from unfolding.  Fiscal policy is also tightening, putting more headwinds on the economy.

Turkey reports September current account data Wednesday, and expects at -$80 mln vs. -$163 mln in August.  If so, the 12-month total would fall sharply to -$40.8 bln from -$43 bln in August.  The external accounts continue to improve, but more from collapsing imports than strong exports.  We think that with the election over, the central bank may come under more pressure to cut rates.

Bank of Korea meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 1.5%.  Although core CPI remains elevated at 2.1% y/y, headline is running at a relatively benign 0.9% y/y in October, and is below the 2.5-3.5% target range.  We suspect the bank will prefer to see the reaction from the first Fed hike before pulling the trigger.  The BOK will gauge the effects of fiscal stimulus before it acts again.  The last move was a 25 bp cut to 1.5% in June.

The Philippine central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 4%.  Data has come in on the firm side recently, despite the external headwinds.  Inflation remains very subdued at 0.4% y/y in October, well below the 2-4% target range.  However, upside risks are present due to the El Nino effect and its pass-through.  Monetary policy seems to be roughly in balance.  The last move was a 25 bp hike in its policy rates in September 2014.

India reports September IP and October CPI Thursday.  The former expects to rise 4.9% y/y, while the latter expects to rise 4.85% y/y.  The next policy meeting for India is on December 1.  Price pressures appear to be picking up, with CPI inflation moving toward the top of the 2-6% target range.  WPI contracted -4.5% y/y, however, pointing to no pipeline pressures.  The last move was a 50 bp cut in its policy rates in September.

Chile central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 3.25%.  The market is mixed, however.  Of the 20 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 6 see a 25 bp hike and 14 see no change.  CPI rose 4.0% y/y in October, and is right at the top of the 2-4% target range.  The last move by the central bank was a 25 bp hike to 3.25% in October that started the tightening cycle, but we know that they also discussed no hike.  With the economy sluggish and inflation falling, do not expect the tightening cycle to be an aggressive one.  Earlier today, Chile reported October trade.

Peru central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 3.5%.  The last move was a 25 bp hike to 3.5% in September that started the tightening cycle.  Inflation was 3.66% y/y in September, still above the 1-3% target range.  However, it has fallen from the 4% y/y peak in August and disinflation should continue.  The economy remains sluggish and so an aggressive tightening cycle seems unlikely.

Malaysia reports Q3 GDP and current account data Friday.  Growth expects to ease to 4.7% y/y from 4.9% in Q2.  The central bank left rates steady last week, but it noted, “Downside risks to growth remain high.  The performance of the Malaysian economy continues to be affected by the weak external environment” and it added that private consumption expects to moderate.  We think it will lean more dovish and perhaps ease in 2016 if the slowdown continues.  The weak ringgit is a constraint on cutting rates near-term.  The last move was a 25 bp hike to 3.25% in July 2014.

Czech Republic reports Q3 GDP Friday, and expects to rise 4.2% y/y vs. 4.6% in Q2.  Last week, the central bank left policy steady but altered its forward guidance slightly.  It now sees current policies maintained until “around” the end of 2016.  Previously, it said until “at least” H2 2016.  Deflation risks continue, with October CPI coming in earlier today at 0.2% y/y vs. 0.4% expected.  If the data turn down again, we would not rule out an adjustment to the floor itself, rather than just the forward guidance.

Poland reports Q3 GDP Friday, and growth expects to remain steady at 3.3% y/y.  It also reports September trade and current account data Friday.  Like the rest of the CEE region, Poland is facing continued deflation risks and headwinds to the economy.  We see the central bank on hold through the end of 2015, but expect easing to resume when incoming Law and Justice will replace virtually the entire MPC.

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview is republished with permission from Marc to Market

3:20pm EDT

By Annika Breidthardt

BERLIN (Reuters) – G20 leaders are likely to meet before their next scheduled summit in February to try and restore market confidence battered by the euro zone debt crisis, Canada’s finance minister said on Saturday, while Germany’s Angela Merkel said it would take a decade to turn around the currency bloc.

“It looks like we’re going to have yet another meeting … The consensus view (among the G20) is that we cannot wait that long (until February meeting in Mexico). We do need to restore market confidence,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said during a panel discussion in Berlin.

G20 leaders failed at a summit in Cannes this week to secure new money from potential investors such as China and Brazil for efforts to overcome the euro zone debt crisis, which continues to unnerve financial markets as political turmoil in Greece has jeopardised a new Greek bailout agreement and Italy’s high debt has become a focus of market attention.

German Chancellor Merkel said there was a lot of work to be done to solve the crisis and it could take a decade before the euro zone was in a better situation.

“(It will) certainly take a decade until we are in a better position again,” Merkel said in her weekly podcast on Saturday. “We have a whole chunk of work ahead of us, I’ve got to say.”

In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou, who survived a confidence vote on Friday but is expected to step down, said negotiations to form a coalition government would start soon. He called for a broad-based government to secure a bailout from the euro zone, the main weapon in Europe’s battle against the spreading economic crisis.

While euro zone leaders have pressed China to put money in the currency bloc’s bailout fund, an influential adviser to China’s government said on Saturday that Europe should not count on Beijing.

“China certainly hopes the debt crisis could be resolved. If the crisis spreads, it could lead to a break-up of the euro zone and affect the global monetary system as the euro is the second-largest reserve currency,” Cheng Siwei, a former top Chinese lawmaker, told reporters in Beijing.

“But don’t pin high hopes on China. China cannot be a hero to the rescue,” he said. “China will lend a helping hand within its capacity but Europe must rely on itself.

Merkel said all of Europe had overspent for years but welcomed that all euro zone members had agreed to a debt brake like Germany’s.

“Almost all European countries have spent more over the years than they earned,” she said.

(Writing by Susan Fenton)

G-20 Balks at IMF Aid on Europe’s Failure to Stem Crisis

By Simon Kennedy and Sandrine Rastello – Nov 5, 2011 7:02 AM GMT+0700

Enlarge image German Chancellor Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Group of 20 leaders meeting in the French resport of Cannes failed to agree on International Monetary Fund resources. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
G-20 Meeting, IMF Funding, Greek Crisis

Play Video

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc., talks about the G-20’s failure to reach an agreement on increasing the International Monetary Fund’s resources and the outlook for the Greek debt crisis. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.” (Source: Bloomberg)
G-20 Meeting, IMF Funding, Greek Referendum

Play Video

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Stuart Eizenstat, a partner at Covington & Burling and a former deputy Treasury secretary, talks about the Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France, and the failure of world leaders to agree on increasing resources of the International Monetary Fund. Eizenstat, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop,” also discusses Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. (Source: Bloomberg)
Enlarge image British Prime Minister David Cameron

British Prime Minister David Cameron said, “The job of the IMF is to help countries in distress, not to support currency systems.” Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Pool via Bloomberg
Enlarge image French President Nicolas Sarkozy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said it may take until February for a deal. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

World leaders balked at writing new checks to help bail out the euro-area, demanding its own governments first do more to fix the two-year-old debt crisis.

Global policy makers demanded more details of a week-old rescue package before they commit fresh cash to the International Monetary Fund, which could then lend to Europe’s bailout facility, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the end of a Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a deal may not come before February.

“The worst thing to do would be to try and cook up a number without being clear who was agreeing to what,” British Prime Minister David Cameron told reporters yesterday after the two-day gathering ended. “The job of the IMF is to help countries in distress, not to support currency systems.”

The refusal of major economies to stump up money now reflected irritation with Europe’s failure to resolve its crisis and foiled investor hopes that the summit would mark a turning point. The turmoil instead flared again before Greece’s government survived a confidence vote in parliament early today and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi accepted IMF monitoring.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won 153 votes in the 330-seat parliamentary chamber after saying he’ll begin discussions with opposition parties on creating a unity government as he tries to reach an accord on a European aid package needed to avert default.
Join Up

“There really are hardly any countries here that said they will join up” with the European Financial Stability Facility, Merkel told reporters, as she committed Europe to speeding up implementation of an Oct. 27 accord to boost the power of its EFSF rescue fund, recapitalize banks and write down Greece’s debt.

European and U.S. stocks fell, as did the euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index recorded its biggest weekly loss in six weeks and the euro declined 2.5 percent from last week to $1.3792. Ten-year Italian bond yields rose to a euro-era high, while rates on 10-year German debt capped the biggest weekly drop on record.

In a statement blaming Europe for fanning financial market tensions, the G-20 said it would ensure the IMF “continues to have resources to play its systemic role” and left it to its finance chiefs to debate how to provide more funds if needed.
Capital Buffers

The leaders approved a plan in which Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and 26 other banks will face additional capital buffers. The G-20 also agreed to limit the risks posed by so-called “too big to fail” banks and called on regulators to examine the effect of credit-default swaps on bond prices.

Beefing up their language on exchange rates, they vowed to “move more rapidly toward market-determined” currencies, and in an appendix welcomed China’s “determination” to increase the yuan’s flexibility. The group made progress on a future financial-transaction tax, Sarkozy said.

Europe’s bosses had planned to showcase their new crisis- fighting plan on the French Riviera and secure outside support for a doubling of the EFSF’s 440 billion euro ($607 billion) spending strength to protect bigger economies such as Italy from contagion spawned two years ago in Greece. That strategy blew up on the eve of the meeting when Papandreou called a referendum he later retracted and as Italy came under the spotlight of investors.
Good News

“Markets are constantly searching for good news and opportunities,” Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said. “The sooner European leaders and others can simply confirm they’re moving forward, I think that would be the quickest way to get us out of this crisis of confidence.”

U.S. President Barack Obama said he’d had a “crash course” in European politics and that it’s important for its governments to send a “clear signal that the European project is alive and well.”

The chaos in Europe led countries from China to Russia and Brazil to say they would hold off pledging money even as they signaled a willingness to eventually do so through the IMF. The Washington-based lender can attach strings to its aid.

The BRICS group of emerging economies, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will decide on a “financial contribution” to the euro region in “coming weeks,” said Arkady Dvorkovich, the economic adviser to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said she “has no plans or intentions to make any direct contribution” to Europe and that China told her it would also rather use the IMF.
War Chest

Options for bolstering the IMF’s $391 billion war chest when the time comes include opening a trust fund or not rolling back a 2009 cash increase. They also discussed increasing the amount of the fund’s Special Drawing Rights. The G-20 agreed to have the IMF create a new, six-month line of credit for countries “with strong policies and fundamentals.”

“Whatever number, you would have found it too small,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters. “It’s much better to have a very strong unanimous support to do whatever it takes.”

Athens remained a focal point as Papandreou struggled to cling on to power amid a fourth year of recession. Politicians are trying to map out a plan to put in place a new government to ratify the rescue package as European powers froze 8 billion euros in assistance that Greece needs to dodge default.
Plan Backfires

Papandreou’s Oct. 31 decision to hold a ballot on the bailout backfired by splitting his party, roiling markets and drawing taboo-breaking warnings from EU powers that it could cost Greece its euro membership.

Prodded by counterparts, Berlusconi accepted IMF auditing of efforts to cut the euro area’s second-largest debt burden after Greece. While he has promised steps such as a higher retirement age and state-asset sales, investors say they don’t go far enough and his ability to push legislation through Parliament is hampered by the defection of two lawmakers from the ruling party.

“Berlusconi is conscious of the doubts that surround his plan,” Sarkozy said. The Italian premier said the surveillance had been “requested, not imposed” and that he turned down an offer of IMF money.

“We have thanked them and said we didn’t need those funds,” he said.

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