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October 15, 2011

Pasar Berspekulasi Soal Pertemuan G20

Oleh: Ahmad Munjin
Pasar Modal – Jumat, 14 Oktober 2011 | 18:26 WIB

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Rupiah menguat meski IHSG melemah. Pasar berspekulasi pertemuan G20 hari ini dan besok akan menghasilkan rencana utama penyelesaian krisis perbankan dan utang Eropa.

Periset dan analis senior PT Monex Investindo Futures Albertus Christian mengungkapkan investor tampaknya ingin mengakhiri pekan ini dengan sentimen positif. Sebab, optimisme pasar bangkit menjelang rapat G20 di Paris hari ini, Jumat (141/10) dan besok.

Menurutnya, pasar berekspektasi, para pembuat kebijakan di Eropa akan menyusun rencana utama untuk memperbaiki dua persoalan utama di Eropa yaitu krisis utang sovereign dan soal rekapitalisasi perbankan. “Karena itu, sepanjang perdagangan, rupiah mencapai level terkuatnya 8.825 dan 8.905 sebagai level terlemahnya dari level pembukaan 8.885 per dolar AS,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta, Jumat (14/10).

Kurs rupiah di pasar spot valas antar bank Jakarta, Kamis (14/10) ditutup menguat 22 poin (0,24%0 ke level 8.843/8.853 per dolar AS dari posisi kemarin 8.865/8.875.

Christian memperkirakan, G20 kemungkinan akan mengeluarkan kebijakan ekspansi kapasitas dana European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) melampaui 440 miliar euro. “Itu akan dikombinasi dengan rencana penerbitan surat utang bersama seperti yang diusulkan George Soros dan 95 politisi lainnya,” imbuh dia.

Dengan penerbitan obligasi bersama, lanjutnya, kawasan Eropa akan berutang melalui surat obligasi yang diterbitkan bersama. “Itu juga akan diramu dengan kebijakan haircuts (pemangkasan nilai obligasi) yang dimiliki perbankan Eropa,” papar Christian.

Pada 21 Juli hanya disepakati haircuts atau write down sebesar 21%. Angka ini dianggap para investor terlalu kecil sehingga kurang mampu menopang Yunani untuk kembali solid ke depannya.

Sejauh ini, lanjutnya, para pemimpin Eropa mengusulkan haircuts 30-50% sementara para pelaku pasar menginginkan besaran hingga 60%. Pelaksanaan haircuts ini juga harus sejalan dengan rencana rekapitalisasi perbankan. “Jadi, saat modal bank Eropa berkurang akibat haircuts, langsung mendapat dana rekap,” ujarnya.

Penguatan rupiah juga didukung oleh China yang melaporkan inflasi cukup terkontrol dan positifnya laporan keuangan Google kemarin malam. Inflasi China September 2011 dirilis 6,1% dari sebelumnya 6,2%. “Semua itu, berhasil mengimbagi berita negatif dari down grade Spanyol oleh Standard & Poor’s Rating Service,” paparnya.

Begitu juga dengan pemangkasan peringkat empat bank di Eropa oleh Fitch Rating. Karena itu hampir semua mata uang menguat terhadap dolar AS. “Sebab, market saat ini berspekulasi, bahwa G20 akan menghasilkan rencana yang bisa mengatasi masalah krisis utang di Eropa dan masalah perbankan,” imbuhnya.

Alhasil, dolar AS melemahterhadap mayoritas mata uang utama termasuk terhadap euro (mata uang gabungan negara-negara Eropa). “Indeks dolar AS melemah 0,20% ke level 77,12 dari sebelumnya 77,33,” imbuh Christian.

Dari bursa saham, analis Panin Securities Purwoko Sartono mengatakan, pelemahan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG ) sebesar 11,47 poin (0,31%) ke level 3.663,912 dipicu oleh peralihan investor (swing) dari saham-saham bluechip ke saham-saham second liner dan third liner.

Karena itu, menurutnya, tampak sejak kemarin, saham-saham bluechips mendapat tekanan akibat pasar yang merealisasikan keuntungan. “Ya, otomatis, saham-saham lapis dua dan tiga yang bergerak lebih aktif,” ujarnya. [mdr]
Oct. 14, 2011, 4:51 p.m. EDT
U.S. stock rally translates into weekly gain
Dow industrials and S&P 500 return to positive turf for 2011

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tallied robust gains Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average capping its longest weekly win streak in six months, after a surge in retail sales and Google Inc.’s earnings lifted sentiment.

“Retail sales were a little better than expected, and earnings so far have been pretty good,” said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

He noted the S&P 500 Index (SNC:SPX) was testing 1,220, the upper part of a two-month trading range.

On Friday, the index added 20.92 points, or 1.7%, to 1,224.58, with energy, natural-resource and technology companies leading the gains among its 10 industry groups.

Tallying a second weekly gain, the S&P 500 rose 6% from last Friday’s close, its biggest weekly rise since July 2009.

Closing in positive territory for 2011 for the first time in more than six weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) added 166.36 points, or 1.5%, to 11,644.49, a level that has the blue-chip index 4.9% higher on the week and scoring its third consecutive weekly advance, the last occurrence of which took place in the three-week period ending April 8.

Up 7.6% from last Friday’s finish, the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ:COMP) advanced 47.61 points, or 1.8%, to 2,667.85. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is up 0.6%. It was the Nasdaq Composite’s biggest weekly gain since March 2009.

Volume was light. For every stock on the decline, more than five rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where 847 million shares traded; composite volume neared 3.7 billion shares.

In Paris, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 started discussions on Europe’s debt trouble, with officials reportedly thinking about writing down as much as 50% on Greek bonds.

“There are a lot of efforts under way to push those potential default concerns out through the end of the year, to get that off the table for the rest of 2011,” said Schwab’s Frederick.

Equities relinquished some of their gains after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for October fell to 57.5 from 59.4 in September.

More inspiring for riskier investments, the Commerce Department on Friday reported a 1.1% increase in retail sales for September, the largest growth since February, following a 0.3% gain for August, with the latter figure revised up from the prior estimate. See more on retail sales.

The data offered “encouraging news for the U.S. economy,” noted analysts at Wells Fargo in emailed commentary.

Shares of internet-search engine Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) rallied 5.9% a day after it reported better-than-anticipated sales for the third quarter.

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