Selasa, 21/06/2011 10:32 WIB
Pasar Relatif Stabil Jelang Agenda Penting Yunani dan The Fed
Askap Futures – detikFinance
Mendekati momen-momen krusial bagi Yunani, euro terpantau diperdagangkan relatif stabil terhadap dollar pada sesi perdagangan Senin (20/6).
Euro sebelumnya sempat tertekan setelah pertemuan para menteri keuangan di Luksemburg gagal mencapai kesepakatan mengenai kebutuhan pendanaan jangka panjang Yunani. Namun, euro kemudian berhasil merebut kembali kerugiannya menyusul disetujuinya usulan untuk menambah Dana Stabilitas Finansial Eropa (EFSF/European Financial Stability Fund).
Klaus Regling, ketua EFSF mengatakan dana EFSF akan dinaikkan menjadi 780 miliar euro dari semual 440 miliar euro. Keputusan ini dapat memberikan tambahan nafas bagi negara-negara anggota euro yang perekonomiannya bermasalah.
Terhadap dollar, euro rebound dari terendah 1.4187 untuk kemudian ditutup di kisaran 1.4306 pada akhir sesi, naik tipis dari level penutupan Jumat lalu. Para pelaku pasar masih nampak berhati-hati seiring dengan belum jelasnya situasi Yunani.
Yunani sendiri hari ini dijadwalkan mengadakan mosi tidak percaya atas struktur pemerintahan baru bentukan PM George Papandreou. Lolos dari mosi tidak percaya ini, besar peluang proposal pemotongan anggaran, yang selama ini banyak ditentang, akan mendapatkan persetujuan parlemen pada pengambilan suara pekan depan.
Sementara itu, lemahnya data perekonomian Jepang berdampak pada hilangnya sebagian status safe-haven yen. Data yang dirilis kemarin menunjukkan neraca perdagangan Jepang mengalami defisit sebesar 474,6 miliar yen pada bulan Mei.
Yen ditutup melemah sekitar 0,3 persen di kisaran 80.27 per dollar.
Mata uang safe-haven lainnya, franc Swiss, justru menguat, diuntungkan oleh krisis hutang Yunani dan sinyal melambatnya perekonomian AS. Versus dollar, franc Swiss membukukan gain lebih dari 0,3 persen dengan ditutup di 0.8458 pada akhir sesi perdagangan Senin.
Demikian pula harga emas dunia, berlanjut menguat mencapai tertinggi $1546.30 per troy ounce kemarin. Logam mulia tersebut kemudian stabil di kisaran $1539.70 pada akhir sesi.
Di samping menunggu kepastian mengenai Yunani, para pelaku pasar juga akan memusatkan perhatian pada pengumuman hasil rapat kebijakan moneter Bank Sentral AS (Federal Reserve) minggu ini. Meski besar kemungkinan Federal Reserve masih akan mempertahankan suku bunganya di level rendah, para pelaku pasar berharap mendapatkan petunjuk mengenai kondisi ekonomi AS dari kacamata bank sentral.
Pengumuman hasil rapat kebijakan moneter Federal Reserve dijadwalkan pada hari Rabu waktu setempat. (atz)
HONG KONG, June 21, 2011 (AFP)
Asian stock markets rose in early trade Tuesday following a rally on Wall Street as dealers grew optimistic that the Greek debt crisis may be resolved soon.
As attention turned to a confidence vote in Greece’s prime minister and the beginning of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve policy committee, investors were keen to pick up cheaper stocks after selling in the previous two sessions.
Tokyo was 0.89 percent higher by the break, Hong Kong added 0.87 percent, Sydney added 1.10 percent and Shanghai was 0.61 percent up while Seoul jumped 1.08 percent.
Europe gave Athens a two-week deadline to pass 28.4 billion euros ($40.65 billion) of cuts, as the IMF warned the stability of the global economy rested on the confidence vote in Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government later Tuesday.
Eurozone officials decided to meet again on July 3 — to allow the vote to take place — to decide on emergency cash and work out the details of a second bailout worth more than 100 billion euros.
They will also stage a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday — with another bailout for Greece, whose debts currently top 350 billion euros, near the top of a agenda.
If Greece does not get the money in time it could default on its loans by the middle of next month, which some warn could spread to other eurozone nations and spark a financial crisis similar to that in 2008-2009.
“Failure to undertake decisive action could rapidly spread the tensions to the core of the euro area and result in large global spillovers,” an IMF report warned.
Japan Tuesday pledged to keep providing support, saying it would continue buying bonds from a eurozone rescue fund.
Japan has previously pledged to help boost confidence in the bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), amid concerns earlier this year for eurozone nations such as Portugal and Ireland.
The Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is expected to announce interest rates being kept on hold, will also provide a clearer view of the state of the world’s number one economy.
Dealers will also want to hear what its chairman Ben Bernanke has to say after the meeting ends.
“The widespread view is that the slowdown of the US economy is temporary, but investors want to confirm whether that’s the understanding during Bernanke’s press conference,” said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.
The committee is expected to announce its $600 billion Treasury bond purchases programme will expire as scheduled by the end of June, and not announce additional stimulus amid weak economic growth.
Upbeat sentiment was reflected on Wall Street, with the Dow up 0.63 percent, the broader S&P 500 0.54 percent higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gaining 0.50 percent.
The euro firmed against the dollar in early Tokyo trade, changing hands at $1.4332 against $1.4301 in New York late Monday while it also rose to 114.85 yen from 114.77. The dollar dipped slightly to 80.13 yen from 80.20 yen.
Oil was up in Asian trade, with New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude for July delivery, rising 54 cents to $93.80 and Brent North Sea crude for August advancing 15 cents to $111.84.
Gold opened in Hong Kong at $1,541.00-$1,542.00 an ounce, up from Monday’s close of $1,537.00-$1,538.00.
How the euro zone can save itself
Jun 20, 2011 11:05 EDT
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
By Hugo Dixon
Greece is likely to receive another short-term sticking plaster after the euro zone’s leaders stared into the abyss. But a repeat of the drama of recent days is all too possible. The region can, and must, protect itself against Athenian delinquency.
Euro zone finance ministers have postponed a final decision on extending 12 billion euros of emergency loans to Greece. But the country should get the next tranche of its EU/IMF bailout program in early July. Around the same time, the authorities should agree to a new package of perhaps 120 billion euros that sees Greece through until end 2014 –- with private-sector creditors helping by rolling over their debts in some yet-to-be-determined quasi-voluntary manner. Athens still has the capacity to mess things up if it can’t get its parliament to approve the new austerity program. But following Friday’s cabinet reshuffle, the government looks like it will at least survive a no-confidence vote on June 21.
Greece’s saviors have been willing to retreat from what were presented as red lines — such as Gemany’s insistence that private-sector creditors extend the maturity of their loans rather than roll over debts on a voluntary basis — because they were so scared of the spill-over effects of a disorderly Greek default. Policymakers were right to be worried, but only because they have wasted the last year by failing to build adequate firewalls to protect against such a contingency. It’s not just Ireland and Portugal which could have been dragged down by a Greek bankruptcy. These small countries, which have already agreed to their own bailout plans, are no longer the real issue. Spain and even Italy, whose credit rating was placed on review for a possible downgrade by Moody’s on June 17, are the potential nightmares.
The foot-dragging and lack of contingency planning is virtually criminal. But it is still not too late to prepare for the worst. Indeed, given the real possibility that Greece will fail to stick to its new austerity program, it would be the height of folly not to.
The big issue is to prevent a bank panic in the periphery of the euro zone. Wholesale markets have long been closed for Greek, Irish and Portuguese lenders. There has also been a flight of retail depositors in Greece and Ireland, but it has been more of a fast walk than a run. There haven’t been queues of depositors standing outside branches as with the UK’s Northern Rock in 2007. If it comes to that, all hell could break loose.
It is vital to take pre-emptive action. As with any potential banking crisis, the solution is to stuff weak institutions with capital and shore up their funding lines.
The United States and the United Kingdom recapitalized their banks in 2008 and 2009. The euro zone, by contrast, has largely twiddled its thumbs. Even this summer’s European bank stress tests, the results of which are due to be published next month, will be flawed because they do not contemplate the possibility of a sovereign default. But there’s nothing to stop regulators from telling banks that pass the tests despite being filled with risky assets that they still need more capital — and should raise it in double-quick time.
Greek banks are the first priority. They need about 14 billion euros to be comfortable, according to a Breakingviews calculation. If they can’t raise it themselves, which some won’t be able to, they should be bailed out. A special fund which was created for this purpose last year as part of the original EU/IMF bailout plan remains untouched. There’s no point delaying any longer.
Spanish banks are the second priority. The government says the banking system needs no more than 20 billion euros of extra capital. But some market participants think it could need 100 billion euros, because of the banks’ exposure to Spain’s dire property sector. If the government persists with numbers that the market thinks is unrealistic, the state itself could run into funding difficulties. Madrid should be told by its euro zone partners to get ahead of the curve on bank recapitalization immediately.
The European Central Bank’s role as lender of last resort to banks must also be reinforced. Despite softening its approach many times in recent years, the ECB still doesn’t provide an adequate medium-term program for banks with liquidity problems. The Frankfurt-based institution argues that this should be the job of governments because such funding could land it with losses.
While there is some merit in the ECB’s argument, this isn’t an excuse for inaction. The U.S. and British governments both persuaded their central banks to operate special lending schemes during the credit crunch by indemnifying them against potential losses. This is harder to achieve in the euro zone because there isn’t a single government and there’s endless squabbling about who should pick up the tab. But the European Financial Stability Facility, the region’s bailout fund, could be repurposed for this task. And if banks were properly recapitalized first, the ECB’s potential losses shouldn’t be that big anyway. European policymakers — perhaps led by Mario Draghi, who is expected to be the next ECB president — should crack heads together over the summer.
If such a medium-term lending scheme existed and the weak banks were stuffed with capital, the euro zone would be in a much stronger position when and if Athens next veers off course. There would be much less danger of an EU-wide bank panic. Greece’s saviors could then afford to play hardball with confidence. If they don’t do this, Europe could soon be witnessing a replay of the game of chicken seen in recent weeks – with even higher stakes. And sometimes games of chicken end in disaster.