geregetan : #3 : (confirmed) JAPAN … 180810

Second in line
Aug 16th 2010, 13:36 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

CHINA has, at long last, surpassed Japan in terms of nominal GDP, making the Chinese economy the world’s second largest. Second quarter output in China came in at $1.337 trillion, to Japan’s $1.288 trillion (Japan’s output was larger in the first quarter; for comparison, America’s second quarter nominal output was $3.522 trillion). The shift is sure to be widely discussed and widely misinterpreted. There are a few key things to mention.

First, while Chinese growth has been truly impressive in recent decades, the rapid overtaking of the Japanese economy also reflects years of disappointing growth there. This story is as much about Japan’s travails (and the risk to other rich economies facing a descent into Japanese-style stagnation) as it is China’s boom.

Second, China remains a very poor country in per capita terms. It uses over four times as many citizens as America to produce less than half America’s output. That’s a bit misleading—urban productivity in China doesn’t lag America by quite as much but is offset by the limited growth contribution of China’s hundreds of millions of rural poor. Still, the total output figures encourage observers to vastly overstate the developmental level of the Chinese economy.

And third, significant challenges remain ahead. As Eswar Prasad says:

There are virtually no historical parallels for a country that is so large and dominant in absolute terms and yet that lags far behind many other countries in terms of per capita income and other indicators of development. There is still a yawning gap in per capita income levels between China and the advanced economies and, even at present growth trajectories, it will take a generation for China to achieve the level of development of advanced economies.

Growth in China has led hundreds of millions of people out of dire poverty and is cause for celebration. But the process of transition is going to continue to be a difficult one for China and the world.
16/08/2010 – 19:54
Jadi Negara Ekonomi Ke-2 Terbesar Dunia
China Rebut Posisi Jepang

INILAH.COM, Tokyo – Jepang kehilangan tempat sebagai negara perekonomian terbesar ke-2 dunia ke China pada kuartal kedua akibat momentum melemahnya pertumbuhan global dan kegoyangan pemulihan ekonomi.

AP melaporkan produk domestik bruto tumbuh ke tingkat tahunan hanya 0,4 persen seperti dismapaikan pemerintah Senin (16/8), jauh di bawah ekspansi tahunan 4,4 persen pada kuartal pertama dan menambah bukti pemulihan global menghadapi kekhawatiran yang mendalam.

Angka-angka menggarisbawahi munculnya China sebagai ekonomi terkuat ke-2 di dunia yang telah mengubah segalanya dari keseimbangan global antara kekuatan militer dan keuangan. China sudah merupakan eksportir terbesar, pembeli mobil dan produsen baja, dan itu mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi global. China telah menjadi kekuatan utama di balik munculnya resesi dunia yang mendalam, memberikan jus yang sangat dibutuhkan ke AS, Jepang dan Eropa dan Tokyo yang menunjukkan bahwa permintaan China saja mungkin tidak cukup untuk Jepang atau raksasa ekonomi lainnya.

China telah melampaui Jepang dalam angka PDB secara kuartalan. Ekonomi China hampir pasti akan lebih besar dari Jepang pada akhir tahun 2010. China tumbuh sekitar 10 persen per tahun, sementara perkiraan ekonomi Jepang tumbuh antara 2 sampai 3 persen tahun ini. PDB Jepang mencapai US$1,286 triliun sepanjang April-Junin sedang China US$1,335 triliun.

Jepang telah memegang negara perekonomian terbesar ke-2 dunia setelah AS sejak tahun 1968. [cms]
Japan Falls Behind China as Second-Biggest Economy as GDP Misses Estimates
By Keiko Ujikane – Aug 15, 2010
Japan’s economy grew at less than a fifth of the pace economists estimated last quarter, pushing it into third place behind the U.S. and China and adding to evidence the global recovery is faltering.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended June 30 from a revised 4.4 percent expansion in the first quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for annual growth of 2.3 percent.

Stocks fell, led by exporters whose profits are under threat from the yen’s advance to a 15-year high against the dollar. The economic slowdown may put pressure on the Bank of Japan to expand monetary stimulus as the nation’s record public debt constrains the government’s ability to do so.

“This was a very weak report,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “With exports slowing and domestic demand still weak, the economy will be in a tough situation.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.4 percent to 9,121.82 at 10:51 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for the lowest close since November. The yen climbed to 85.82 per dollar at from 85.95 before the report. It reached 84.73 yen on Aug. 11, the strongest level since July 1995.

Export growth slowed and consumer spending stalled, today’s report showed. The expansion was weaker than all economists estimated, with their predictions ranging from 0.6 percent to 3.4 percent.

Surpassed by China

Japan’s economic output for the second quarter totaled $1.288 trillion, less than China’s $1.337 trillion, Keisuke Tsumura, a parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office, told reporters in Tokyo today. Tsumura, who was citing the government department’s own calculations, said Japan remained bigger in the first half of 2010.

National Strategy Minister Satoshi Arai said at a press conference the GDP report wasn’t an indication of the economy falling into a lull and the government isn’t planning any stimulus packages now. He said politicians need to work with the central bank to combat the stronger yen.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he is concerned about the rising yen, Kyodo News reported on Aug. 14. Japan’s currency may climb to a record, Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said yesterday on the Fuji television network.

Yen Warning

The strengthening currency prompted Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda to say last week “excessive” moves can hurt the economy. He pledged to work with Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who said in a statement the bank is closely watching “substantial” movements in foreign-exchange and stock markets. The BOJ kept policy unchanged last week.

“If the Japanese economy is forced to create a production structure based on 85 yen to the dollar, that would be disastrous,” as the nation wouldn’t earn enough from exports to pay for commodities from overseas, Honda Motor Co. Chief Financial Officer Yoichi Hojo said on Aug. 5.

Net exports, or shipments minus imports, added 0.3 percentage point to growth last quarter, slowing from a revised 0.6 point in the first three months of 2010.

Spending by Japanese consumers, which account for about 60 percent of the economy, was unchanged, compared with the previous quarter’s revised 0.5 percent gain, today’s report showed. The slowdown indicates incentives to buy energy- efficient cars and electronics are waning.

Business spending gained 0.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with 0.6 percent in the first three months.

BOJ on Hold

“The impact of the stronger yen will materialize more in the third quarter by pushing down export volumes and corporate profits,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “Government pressure on the BOJ for further monetary easing will likely increase in the coming months.”

The BOJ introduced a fixed-rate lending facility last December after the yen surged and stocks plunged. The central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent since lowering it in December 2008.

The slowdown in the second quarter contrasts with reports from Japan’s biggest companies that signaled a better earnings outlook, even as the yen surges. Toyota, Honda, Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp. were among firms that raised profit forecasts over the past month.

A group of lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan last week urged Prime Minister Kan to consider intervening in the currency market for the first time since 2004 to arrest the yen’s rally. They also called for monetary easing from the central bank.

Without adjusting for price changes, Japan shrank a nominal 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, the first contraction in three quarters, today’s report showed. Price declines showed signs of easing, with the GDP deflator falling 1.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, narrowing from a 2.8 percent drop in the previous quarter.
16/08/2010 – 18:44
PDB Jepang Tekan Pasar Finansial
Ahmad Munjin

INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Indeks saham dan kurs rupiah di pasar uang melemah. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Jepang kuartal kedua yang hampir masuk resesi menjadi pemicunya.

Zulfirman Basir, periset dan analis senior PT Monex Investindo Futures mengatakan, buruknya data pertumbuhan Jepang memicu koreksi mayoritas bursa saham Asia termasuk IHSG . Akibatnya, rupiah hari ini pun melemah.

Apalagi, dolar AS menguat terhadap mata uang utama setelah Thomas Hoenig, anggota Dewan Gubernur The Fed mengukuhkan rencana kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral AS lebih cepat.

“Karena itu, sepanjang perdagangan, rupiah sempat melemah ke level 8.992 setelah sempat menguat ke level 8.972 per dolar AS,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta, Senin (16/8).

Kurs rupiah di pasar spot valas antar bank Jakarta, Senin (16/8) ditutup melemah 10 poin (0,11%) jadi 8.975/8.985 per dolar AS dari posisi pekan lalu di level 8.965/8.970.

Tadi pagi, lanjut Firman, pasar sudah dihadapkan pada data GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Jepang, yang hampir masuk ke zona resesi kembali sehingga memperkecil peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS.

Namun, membaiknya data retail sales dan sentimen konsumen AS pekan lalu sedikit meredam kekhawatiran pasar. “Sehingga, ada sedikit harapan bagi perekonomian AS,” imbuhnya.

PDB Jepang kuartal kedua 2010 dirilis turun menjadi 0,1%, dari kuartal sebelumnya direvisi 1,1% dari level 1,2%. Padahal, untuk kuartal kedua diprediksikan 0,6%. PDB Jepang telah memicu anjloknya bursa saham Asia hari ini. “Namun, setelah anjlok, investor kembali bargain hunting, sehingga bursa saham Asia tidak terlalu melemah tajam,” paparnya.

Begitu juga dengan rupiah di pasar uang sehingga mata uang RI ini tidak melemah terlalu dalam. Dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama ditransaksikan variatif. Terhadap mata uang gabungan negara-negara Eropa (euro), dolar AS melemah. “Terhadap euro, dolar AS ditransaksikan melemah ke level US$1,2786 dari US$1,2760,” tandas Firman.

Di sisi lain, pengamat pasar modal, Willy Sanjaya mengatakan, tertekannya indeks saham awal pekan ini dipicu oleh aktivitas sebagian investor yang melakukan cuti panjang pekan pertama awal Ramadan bertepatan dengan libur 17 Agustus.

“Investor sangat untung sebab hanya dihitung 4 hari. Hari Sabtu-Minggu, dan Selasa (17/8) besok tidak dihitung cuti,” ujarnya. Akibatnya, banyak hedge fund, yang melakukan cuti panjang.

Volume transaksi di bursa saham pun hari ini cukup tipis. Komposisi jual dan beli sangat tipis sehingga indeks tertekan. Padahal, jika melihat kondisi makro ekonomi, bursa seharusnya terangkat oleh penguatan rupiah ke level 8.979.

Begitu juga dengan cum pembagian dividen saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI). “Semua itu tidak mengangkat market hari ini, karena bid-offer-nya benar-benar tidak ada,” tukasnya.

Di sisi lain, imbuh Willy, sebagian orang mencairkan dana cash sehingga memicu profit taking di pasar. Namun menurut Willy, aksi ambil untung itu masih dalam kisaran yang wajar sehingga pelemahan indeks terbatas.

Padahal, bursa regional turun lebih dalam daripada bursa saham domestik. “Bursa regional masih mendapat tekanan dari outlook perlambatan ekonomi AS,” ungkap Willy. [mdr]


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