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geregetan: serius semua jadinya, cuma krisis… 270510

May 26, 2010

Rabu, 26/05/2010 22:18:13 WIB
Pemangkasan anggaran di Eropa berlanjut
Oleh: Bloomberg

ROMA (Bloomberg): Pemangkasan anggaran negara-negara di Eropa yang mengalami pembengkakan defisit sebagai salah satu upaya mengatasi krisis kredit dan penurunan nilai euro berlanjut.

Setelah Spanyol, dan Portugal, hari ini, pemerintahan PM Silvio Berlusconi menyetujui pemangkasan anggaran US$30 miliar (24 miliar euro) guna meyakinkan investor bahwa kawasan euro dapat mengurangi defisit dan mempertahankan nilai mata uang.

“Kebijakan itu termasuk membekukan gaji PNS selama 3 tahun dan pemberantasan penipuan pajak,” tulis pernyataan resmi pemerintah yang disebarkan melalui surat elektronik 90 menit setelah pertemuan Kabinet Italia.

Berlusconi dan Menteri Keuangan Italia Giulio Tremonti menggelar pertemuan menindaklanjuti keputusan itu pada hari ini.

“Ini langkah awal yang menggembirakan. Kami berharap pengelolaan anggaran yang efisien berlanjut untuk jangka panjang,” jelas Raj Badiani, ekonom Global Insight Inc London, dalam catatan penelitannya mengenai krisis Eropa pada hari ini.

Para pemimpin Uni Eropa menyediakan dana 750 miliar euro membantu negara yang terbebani utang, tetapi dengan syarat penghematan anggaran. Kegagalan kredit Yunani meningkatkan biaya pinjaman di Eropa Selatan dan kehawatiran investor atas daya tahan euro.

Nilai euro turun 14% pada tahun ini dibandingkan dolar AS, sedangkan pada hari ini turun sebesar 0,3% menjadi US$1,2315 pukul di 10:17 di Roma. Penghematan Italia mencapai 1,6% dari PDB, guna mengembalikan defisit ke posisi 3% atas PDB pada 2010. (esu)

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Pasar masih ragu
Secara terpisah, Nouriel Roubini, pengajar di New York University, mengatakan pasar belum yakin bahwa upaya Yunani mengendalikan kebijakan fiskal mampu memperbaiki nilai euro.

“Ada juga kekhawatiran Spanyol dan Portugal tidak mampu secara politik memangkas belanja. Yunani berjanji melaksanakan penghematan anggaran yang defisitnya hampir 14% dari PDB guna membantu mengatasi penurunan niai euro,” ujar Roubini.

Sementara itu, di Spanyol, selain memangkas anggaran, bank sentral negara itu meminta perbankan melakukan merjer untuk memperkuat modal guna mengurangi daftar bank lemah yang harus mendapatkan dana bailout.
Defisit anggaran Spanyol mencapai 9,3% dari PDB pada 2010 dan krisis kredit di Eropa menyebabkan negara itu berpotensi mengalami kelangkaan kredit, sehingga pemerintah harus mengucurkan pinjaman darurat.

Empat bank yang telah mengajukan usulan merger kepada bank sentral meliputi Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo, Grupo Cajastur, Caja de Ahorros de Santander y Cantabria, dan Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad de Extremadura.

Pernyataan bersama keempat bank itu menyebutkan penggabungan usaha menjadikan bank itu sebagai bank terbesar kelima di Spanyol. Spanyol juga mengalami krisis anggaran seperti Portugal dan Spayol.

Laporan European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) tertanggal 15 Mei menyebutkan kegagalan Eropa Barat dalam membendung penyebaran krisis kemungkinan merusak proyeksi pemulihan, khususnya di Semenanjung Balkan.

EBRD merupakan bank pembangunan berbasis di London dan mendukung 30 mantan negara komunis di Eropa Timur dan Asia Tengah. Tanpa memperhitungkan krisis Yunani, EBRD memproyeksikan 30 negara itu tumbuh 3,7% pada tahun ini.

“Krisis Yunani berisiko, terutama kepada Eropa Tenggara, tetapi risiko terhadap kawasan ini meluas, sehingga kami sangat mengkhawatirkan krisis ini,” ujar Chief Economist EBRD Erik Berglof dalam pertemuan tahunan bank itu di Zagreb, Kroasia.(msb)
Geithner calls for action on euro debt crisis

11:17am EDT
By Glenn Somerville and John O’Donnell
LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that financial markets want to see euro zone countries put into action their $1 trillion standby package designed to stabilize the European currency.
Geithner, on a visit to London, also urged Europeans to work for a globally consistent approach to financial reform as the European Union said it might go it alone with a crisis levy on banks.
After talks with his British counterpart, George Osborne, Geithner said of the EU plan to support indebted states: “It’s a good program (and) has got all the right elements. What markets want to see is action.”
The fund would provide heavily conditioned loans to euro zone governments that had difficulty borrowing on capital markets after a separate bailout for Greece failed to calm fears of a sovereign debt default in southern European countries.
European shares rallied by 3 percent from Tuesday’s nine-month lows and Wall Street was more than 1 percent up but the euro remained under pressure amid continuing signs of banks’ reluctance to lend to euro zone counterparts exposed to south European sovereign debt.
Geithner’s stress on coordination of new regulation appeared aimed chiefly at Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, which stunned markets and angered EU partners by unilaterally banning some speculative financial trades last week.
He is due to meet German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin on Thursday after dinner in Frankfurt with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.
On his flight to Europe from China, Geithner told reporters he would “emphasize the importance of a carefully designed global approach” to the next stage of financial reform.
Business television channel CNBC said he would also urge the Europeans to stress test their banks to identify those that need new capital and restore market confidence in the banking system.
The executive European Commission outlined a framework on Wednesday for a levy on banks’ assets, liabilities or profits to pay in advance for the cost of future crises, setting the stage for a showdown on the tax at G20 summit in Toronto next month.
“On this question, we can go forward by ourselves, on our own,” Barnier told Reuters. “It is not up to the United States to pay for the financial stability of Europe.”
The Commission said the proceeds of a bank levy should be ring-fenced for national bank resolution funds, putting Brussels at odds with France and Britain, which want the money to help strapped national budgets.
Fears that Europe’s debt crisis could engulf some banks have made them reluctant to lend to each other as happened during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The costs for banks to borrow dollars from each other crept up to a new 10-month high on Wednesday.
Money markets are “pricing in for a credit crunch,” said Michael Pond, Treasury strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. “A crisis of confidence is developing once again.”
OECD UPBEAT
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the global economy was recovering faster than expected from recession with Asia leading the way but remained at risk from huge debts in developed countries.
The OECD survey was relatively upbeat about the euro zone, forecasting growth of 1.2 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2011 — a more optimistic forecast than the European Commission’s 0.9 and 1.5 percent respectively.
The OECD also said banks remained vulnerable, noting the high price of credit default swaps to protect bond investments.
European regulators conducted a confidential assessment of the solvency of national banking systems last September, but their reassuring conclusion failed to dispel doubts because they did not test individual banks or publish detailed findings.
Any European stress tests would have to differ from those conducted by U.S. regulators early last year, because Europe lacks a huge bailout fund like the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to plug any capital deficiencies found.
GERMAN BAN “COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE”
A senior U.S. Treasury official said Washington was unhappy with Berlin’s “counter-productive” decision to go it alone in banning naked shorting of shares in top financial companies and sovereign euro bonds and related transactions in sovereign credit default swaps.
Geithner has also criticized European Union proposals to regulate hedge funds and private equity, warning that they could discriminate against non-European funds.
Far from yielding to widespread criticism, Berlin proposed on Tuesday extending restrictions on such speculative trades to include all shares, a government source said.
In the latest move in a German-inspired Europe-wide austerity drive meant to restore market confidence, Italy’s cabinet approved a multibillion-euro package of budget cuts designed to slash the government’s deficit to beneath the EU ceiling of 3.0 percent of GDP by 2012.
The 24 billion euro ($29.49 billion) plan includes a four-year freeze on public sector salaries, and a reduction in state personnel by replacing only one in five leavers.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Italy’s budget cuts were “very significant” and would help restore confidence in the euro zone. Credit ratings agencies Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s both said the package put Italy’s finances on a sounder footing and should assure markets.
Italy’s largest trade union, CGIL, with about five million members, said it would decide on a national strike after evaluating the measures to be presented by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi later on Wednesday.
(Additional reporting by Sumeet Desai in London, Daniel Flynn and Deepa Babington in Rome; writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock/Toby Chopra)
OECD naikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan global
Kamis, 27/05/2010 04:10:42 WIB
Oleh:
PARIS: Organization for Eco no mic Cooperation and De ve lop ment (OECD) meningkatkan pro yeksi pertumbuhan global untuk 2010 dan 2011, dengan dukungan pertumbuhan dari negara ber kem bang seperti China.

OECD menyebutkan sumbang an negara berkembang dalam me ningkatkan ekonomi global jauh lebih kuat dibandingkan de ngan kekhawatiran terhadap be­ban utang negara maju yang akan mengembalikan dunia ke da lam kondisi krisis.

Ekonomi 30 anggota OECD di per kirakan tumbuh 2,7% pada ta hun ini, naik dari proyeksi No vem ber 2009 yang ditetapkan 1,9%.

Secara global, termasuk negara bukan anggota OECD seperti Chi na, dunia akan tumbuh 4,6% pa da tahun ini dan 4,5% pada 2011. Angka ini mendekati rata-rata per tumbuhan 1 dekade sampai 2006 yang mencapai 3,7%.

Ekonomi global diproyeksikan mu lai membaik setelah keluar da ri resesi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia II pada tahun lalu, tetapi eko nomi di China dan India be ri siko kelebihan kepasitas, sedang kan beban utang kemungkinan mengancam negara maju.

“Untuk pertama, risiko yang perlu dihindari adalah yang ber hu bungan dengan pengembang an pasar kredit pemerintah,” jelas Chief Economist Pier Carlo Pa­doan OECD dalam laporannya.

Dia mengatakan di kawasan lain, skenario terjadinya ledakan penggelembungan nilai aset tidak dapat diabaikan, sehingga kebijakan moneter perlu diperketat di se jumlah negara, seperti China dan India.

Laporan itu juga menyebutkan ekonomi AS diproyeksikan tumbuh 3,2% selama 2010, bukan 2,3% seperti yang diproyeksikan pa da November, sedangkan ka wa san euro akan tumbuh 1,2%, naik dari 0,9%, dan ekonomi Je­pang naik dari 1,8% menjadi 3%.

Proyeksi OECD menyebutkan pertumbuhan di negara maju sa ngat jauh berbeda dibandingkan dengan negara berkembang. Ne ga ra berkembang diperkirakan tumbuh 11% pada tahun ini, In dia tumbuh 8,3%, dan Brasil 6,5%.

“Momentum pertumbuhan eko nomi berhasil dimanfaatkan negara-negara di dunia, sehingga ke seimbangan global mulai m e luas. Ekonomi makro, nilai tukar, dan struktur kebijakan akan menguat, terus berlangsung dan mencapai keseimbangan,” ujar Pa doan.

Upaya China meningkatkan permintaan domestik telah ber hasil mempertahankan surplus ne raca perdagangan ke posisi re kor pada 2006 dan 2007, atau se belum krisis keuangan.

Sementara itu, Amerika Serikat dan China melangsungkan pe run dingan yang fokus mengatasi per bedaan kebijakan antara ke dua negara dan mengatasi an­cam an stabilitas gobal, termasuk krisis kredit Eropa, pada pekan ini.

Pada saat 200 pejabat AS meng gelar rapat di Beijing selama 2 ha ri, nilai euro turun ke posisi te ren dah sejak 8 tahun terakhir ter ha dap yen, dan anjlok 4,7% ter ha dap won. Hal itu me nying kir kan perseteruan perdagangan dan ke bijakan nilai tukar China. (ESU)

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