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geregetan: asia, uang pana$, overheat, gelembunk … 290410

April 29, 2010

Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingkatkan ekonomi Asia berisiko mengalami overheating alias kepanasan. Kuatnya aliran modal masuk ke kawasan ini dikhawatirkan bisa memicu tekanan inflasi dan meningkatkan risiko pecahnya gelembung perekonomian.

“Prospek ekonomi yang cerah dan melebarnya selisih suku bunga dengan negara-negara maju sepertinya akan terus menarik aliran modal yang lebih banyak ke kawasan Asia,” jelas IMF dalam laporan terakhirnya mengenai Asia, seperti dikutip dari AFP, Kamis (29/4/2010).

“Hal ini dapat menyebabkan overheating di beberapa negara dan meningkatkan kerentanan pada booming pasar kredit dan harga aset-aset dengan risiko terjadinya pembalikan secara tiba-tiba,” imbuh IMF.

Karena itu, IMF mendesak para pemimpin negara-negara Asia untuk kembali ke kebijakan moneter yang ‘lebih normal’ setelah sempat diterpa badai krisis finansial tahun lalu. IMF juga mendesak negara-negara Asia untuk meningkatkan fleksibilitas mata uangnya guna mengatasi aliran dana yang sifatnya spekulatif ke kawasan tersebut.

IMF baru saja menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Asia menjadi 7,1% pada 2010 dan 2011. Angka itu lebih tinggi dari proyeksi awal IMF sebesar 6,9% pada tahun 2010 dan 7% pada 2011.

Namun IMF mengingatkan, negara-negara Asia yang tergantung pada ekspor tetap rentan dengan pemulihan lebih lambat dari yang diperkirakan. IMF mendesak pemerintahan di Asia mengurangi ketergantungannya pada ekspor dan mendongkrak konsumsi domestik.

Para pembuat kebijakan di negara-negara Asia juga didesak untuk membuat semacam safeguard untuk melawan ketidakseimbangan aset dan pasar perumahan yang disebabkan melimpahnya likuiditas, sekaligus untuk mengadopsi mata uang yang lebih fleksibel.

“Membuarkan mata uang mengalami apresiasi dapat mencegah aliran modal jangka pendek. Tanpa apresiasi mata uang, tekanan untuk melakukan sterilisasi dampak pasokan uang akan terus berlanjut,” demikian laporan IMF.

Sumber: detikcom
SHANGHAI, April 29, 2010 (AFP)
The International Monetary Fund warned Thursday Asian economies were at risk of overheating as strong capital inflows fan inflationary pressures and raise the risk of damaging bubbles.

The IMF urged regional leaders to return to “more normal” monetary policies after the global financial crisis, and increase the flexibility of their exchange rates to counter speculative funds flowing into their economies.

“Brighter economic growth prospects and widening interest rate differentials with advanced economies are likely to attract more capital to the region,” the IMF said in its latest report on the regional outlook.

“This could lead to overheating in some economies and increase their vulnerability to credit and asset price booms with the risk of subsequent abrupt reversals.”

The IMF raised its growth forecasts for Asia to 7.1 percent for both 2010 and 2011, higher than its prediction last week when it estimated regional economies would expand an average 6.9 percent this year and 7.0 percent next.

But the Fund warned export-driven Asia remained vulnerable to a slower-than-expected recovery in the West, and urged governments to reduce their reliance on overseas shipments and boost domestic consumption.

The IMF said Asian policymakers need to safeguard against the build-up of imbalances in asset and housing markets caused by “excess liquidity”, and one way to do this was to adopt more flexible exchange rates.

“Letting the exchange rate appreciate can forestall short-term inflows,” the Fund said, without specifically referring to China.

“Without more currency appreciation, the pressure to sterilise the impact on money supply will continue.”

The IMF said last week a stronger yuan was “essential” for both the Chinese and world economies, heaping more pressure on Beijing to revalue the currency, which has been effectively pegged at 6.8 to the dollar since mid-2008.

Critics say the policy has given Chinese manufacturers an unfair advantage by making their exports cheaper.

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